2021 Elliott Wave

[exstasie]

Perhaps a Wave-4 falling wedge triangle...?

Would that be valid?

At this point, the current structure seems to evade all simple patterns. I'm characterizing it as some sort of complex structure, like a triple zig zag or triple sideways (WXYXZ), depending what the next sub-wave does.

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Perhaps a Wave-4 falling wedge triangle...?

Would that be valid?

At this point, the current structure seems to evade all simple patterns. I'm characterizing it as some sort of complex structure, like a triple zig zag or triple sideways (WXYXZ), depending what the next sub-wave does.

An alternative simple structure which has potential...

[exstasie]

An alternative simple structure which has potential...

Interesting. We've just seen the push to $34K, but will it reverse here as expected? The internals of this intraday rally do not appear impulsive, but the momentum is quite strong. Bullish engulfing candle on the daily....

[sedactoo+04]

An alternative simple structure which has potential...

Interesting. We've just seen the push to $34K, but will it reverse here as expected? The internals of this intraday rally do not appear impulsive, but the momentum is quite strong. Bullish engulfing candle on the daily....

Well Elon shilling seems to show us the power of the bullish engulfing
Crazy days huh... Curious of both Exstasie and Steves opinions of the huge current cande...
The monthly candle will be closing in 36 hours.

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An alternative simple structure which has potential...

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/20210126-btcusd.png

Interesting. We've just seen the push to $34K, but will it reverse here as expected? The internals of this intraday rally do not appear impulsive, but the momentum is quite strong. Bullish engulfing candle on the daily....

Well Elon shilling seems to show us the power of the bullish engulfing
Crazy days huh... Curious of both Exstasie and Steves opinions of the huge current cande...
The monthly candle will be closing in 36 hours.

Despite the strength of the Elon Musk driven pump, the waves still appear to be corrective at this stage.

Currently thinking the rise from the low of 22-JAN to present is a B-wave —which may have the potential to exceed all-time highs, but rarely.

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The uptrend starting from the low of 22-JAN to present has been driven by reactional Elon Musk related events.
Thus far, the rally appears corrective, and hence may be considered as an Irregular B-wave.
Perhaps either a bullish Expanded Flat or a bullish Running Flat is currently underway.

[Astarjoe]

The uptrend starting from the low of 22-JAN to present has been driven by reactional Elon Musk related events.

While true, the second Musk event was perhaps one of if not the biggest news yet in Bitcoin's history. This groundbreaking corporate endorsement could have massive follow-on effects in terms of large institutional plays (what if Apple/Amazon). I think this goes beyond any and all TA and changes the game because there is no precedent for this. Since the perception might now be that Tesla "bought in" at around 38k, would that not have a strong support element if the price should dip back down as you are suggesting in your previous posts for some time now?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

The uptrend starting from the low of 22-JAN to present has been driven by reactional Elon Musk related events.

While true, the second Musk event was perhaps one of if not the biggest news yet in Bitcoin's history. This groundbreaking corporate endorsement could have massive follow-on effects in terms of large institutional plays (what if Apple/Amazon). I think this goes beyond any and all TA and changes the game because there is no precedent for this. Since the perception might now be that Tesla "bought in" at around 38k, would that not have a strong support element if the price should dip back down as you are suggesting in your previous posts for some time now?

Historically, there have been far more significant events; i.e. invention of automobiles, invention of flight, Roaring 1920s, Great Depression, WW2, 1987 Black Monday, DotCom Bubble, 9/11, U.S Housing Bubble, Subprime Financial Crises, Coronavirus Crash, etc and several flash crashes —neither of these events were beyond Technical Analysis and Elliott Wave.

[sedactoo+04]

So passing 50k will invalidate the flat count considering 1.681 level of wave A?

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So passing 50k will invalidate the flat count considering 1.681 level of wave A?

A weekly close above the 1.618 / 1.786 Fibonacci extension of wave-A invalidates the Flat pattern.

[CookieFactory]

On a more abstract note, the iconic Elliott Wave 5-3 fractal pattern can be used on everything from price action to our lives as human beings, and everything humanity touches. Nothing goes up in a straight line and natural growth is always 3 steps forward, two steps back. Not to get woo-woo, but it's increasingly clear (at least to me) that the Elliott Wave pattern is deeply embedded in human psychology, affecting everything from who we are and how our lives unfold, to the things we touch and create.

While I'm 100% on board with Elliott Wave theory holding interpretative power, I'm not fully convinced in its predictive power, especially when the resolution gets down into the lower cycles (minor, minute, minuette, etc). At this level it seems our hard-wired pattern-seeking brains are simply trying to wring signal from noise, claiming meaning from randomness. I'm open to be convinced otherwise though.

To this day I'm still impressed with the accuracy of OP's earlier 2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave) thread. Masterful work. Glad to see the effort continues here. This thread is one of the handful of reasons I make it a point to visit this forum on a regular basis.

[Astarjoe]

On a more abstract note, the iconic Elliott Wave 5-3 fractal pattern can be used on everything from price action to our lives as human beings, and everything humanity touches. Nothing goes up in a straight line and natural growth is always 3 steps forward, two steps back. Not to get woo-woo, but it's increasingly clear (at least to me) that the Elliott Wave pattern is deeply embedded in human psychology, affecting everything from who we are and how our lives unfold, to the things we touch and create.

While I'm 100% on board with Elliott Wave theory holding interpretative power, I'm not fully convinced in its predictive power, especially when the resolution gets down into the lower cycles (minor, minute, minuette, etc). At this level it seems our hard-wired pattern-seeking brains are simply trying to wring signal from noise, claiming meaning from randomness. I'm open to be convinced otherwise though.

To this day I'm still impressed with the accuracy of OP's earlier 2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave) thread. Masterful work. Glad to see the effort continues here. This thread is one of the handful of reasons I make it a point to visit this forum on a regular basis.

I couldn't agree more. In a macro sense, the model seems to be very useful. In the short term, I think that this market confounds everyone and everything. But one thing is certain: this market cycle in particular will be most interesting to watch as there are now so many competing models and predictions as to how it will all pan out.

[JL0]

What you guys think about Tone Vays idea ?



This is the old chart and his new 3rd MRI Top is near $68K

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What you guys think about Tone Vays idea ?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ErkxoQhXYAEdz2p?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

This is the old chart and his new 3rd MRI Top is near $68K

Using BLX:BNC pricing, there is a Fibonacci-based resistance zone around $61K...

Code:

$60,864  : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 0.618%

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

On a more abstract note, the iconic Elliott Wave 5-3 fractal pattern can be used on everything from price action to our lives as human beings, and everything humanity touches. Nothing goes up in a straight line and natural growth is always 3 steps forward, two steps back. Not to get woo-woo, but it's increasingly clear (at least to me) that the Elliott Wave pattern is deeply embedded in human psychology, affecting everything from who we are and how our lives unfold, to the things we touch and create.

While I'm 100% on board with Elliott Wave theory holding interpretative power, I'm not fully convinced in its predictive power, especially when the resolution gets down into the lower cycles (minor, minute, minuette, etc). At this level it seems our hard-wired pattern-seeking brains are simply trying to wring signal from noise, claiming meaning from randomness. I'm open to be convinced otherwise though.

To this day I'm still impressed with the accuracy of OP's earlier 2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave) thread. Masterful work. Glad to see the effort continues here. This thread is one of the handful of reasons I make it a point to visit this forum on a regular basis.

An interesting video you may enjoy:
https://socionomics.net/2021/02/historys-hidden-engine-a-socionomics-documentary/

[CookieFactory]

On a more abstract note, the iconic Elliott Wave 5-3 fractal pattern can be used on everything from price action to our lives as human beings, and everything humanity touches. Nothing goes up in a straight line and natural growth is always 3 steps forward, two steps back. Not to get woo-woo, but it's increasingly clear (at least to me) that the Elliott Wave pattern is deeply embedded in human psychology, affecting everything from who we are and how our lives unfold, to the things we touch and create.

While I'm 100% on board with Elliott Wave theory holding interpretative power, I'm not fully convinced in its predictive power, especially when the resolution gets down into the lower cycles (minor, minute, minuette, etc). At this level it seems our hard-wired pattern-seeking brains are simply trying to wring signal from noise, claiming meaning from randomness. I'm open to be convinced otherwise though.

To this day I'm still impressed with the accuracy of OP's earlier 2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave) thread. Masterful work. Glad to see the effort continues here. This thread is one of the handful of reasons I make it a point to visit this forum on a regular basis.

An interesting video you may enjoy:
https://socionomics.net/2021/02/historys-hidden-engine-a-socionomics-documentary/

Thanks for that - I had no idea there was an actual field of study on this. Are you aware of any discussion forums or have any other resource recommendations for learning more?

It appears other than the original Elliott Wave theory, all material on socionomics is relatively recent so we probably can't expect a mainstream breakthrough for another decade or so (based off the observation that new science takes roughly 20 years to gain general acceptance). The sooner mainstream economics stops modeling humans as perfectly rational actors the better 

[CookieFactory]

Back in Bitcoin land, it was mentioned earlier but I'm in agreement the ~61K level is one to watch. My current operating assumption is it'll be a local top.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

On a more abstract note, the iconic Elliott Wave 5-3 fractal pattern can be used on everything from price action to our lives as human beings, and everything humanity touches. Nothing goes up in a straight line and natural growth is always 3 steps forward, two steps back. Not to get woo-woo, but it's increasingly clear (at least to me) that the Elliott Wave pattern is deeply embedded in human psychology, affecting everything from who we are and how our lives unfold, to the things we touch and create.

While I'm 100% on board with Elliott Wave theory holding interpretative power, I'm not fully convinced in its predictive power, especially when the resolution gets down into the lower cycles (minor, minute, minuette, etc). At this level it seems our hard-wired pattern-seeking brains are simply trying to wring signal from noise, claiming meaning from randomness. I'm open to be convinced otherwise though.

To this day I'm still impressed with the accuracy of OP's earlier 2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave) thread. Masterful work. Glad to see the effort continues here. This thread is one of the handful of reasons I make it a point to visit this forum on a regular basis.

An interesting video you may enjoy:
https://socionomics.net/2021/02/historys-hidden-engine-a-socionomics-documentary/

Thanks for that - I had no idea there was an actual field of study on this. Are you aware of any discussion forums or have any other resource recommendations for learning more?

It appears other than the original Elliott Wave theory, all material on socionomics is relatively recent so we probably can't expect a mainstream breakthrough for another decade or so (based off the observation that new science takes roughly 20 years to gain general acceptance). The sooner mainstream economics stops modeling humans as perfectly rational actors the better 

Similar and related area of study you may find interesting is "The Fourth Turning"...

https://www.fourthturning.com/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory
https://www.businessinsider.com/protests-coronavirus-crisis-fourth-turning-theory-millennials-boomers-2020-6
 

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