2021 Elliott Wave

[josegines]

If however MINOR 2 pullback is still progressing, then not expecting a move below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the prior uptrend, which is around the $41,000 zone.

I suppose we have some margin for that 41k $ maximum retracement, or do we have to recalculate?

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If however MINOR 2 pullback is still progressing, then not expecting a move below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the prior uptrend, which is around the $41,000 zone.

I suppose we have some margin for that 41k $ maximum retracement, or do we have to recalculate?

Yes, there is always margin —exact science, is not an exact science!

So far, the last two daily candles have close and open prices around the 50% Fibonacci retracement of MINOR 1 wave, which is around the $41,000 support zone...

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[josegines]

You see the possibility that MINOR 2 has one wave down, that is, a movement of 5 waves. In other words, when do we consider MINOR 3 confirmed? could it be topping last week's high?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

You see the possibility that MINOR 2 has one wave down, that is, a movement of 5 waves. In other words, when do we consider MINOR 3 confirmed? could it be topping last week's high?

Yes, that's possible.

A daily or weekly close above the 18-SEP high ought to suggest MINOR 3 uptrend is underway.

[josegines]

You see the possibility that MINOR 2 has one wave down, that is, a movement of 5 waves. In other words, when do we consider MINOR 3 confirmed? could it be topping last week's high?

Yes, that's possible.

A daily or weekly close above the 18-SEP high ought to suggest MINOR 3 uptrend is underway.

I was going to comment that we could be close to seeing that MINOR 3 confirmed, but I see that it is necessary to wait for the closing, even weekly, it is not worth just exceeding the maximum of September 18 in intraday.

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I was going to comment that we could be close to seeing that MINOR 3 confirmed, but I see that it is necessary to wait for the closing, even weekly, it is not worth just exceeding the maximum of September 18 in intraday.

Yes, a weekly close above the 18-SEP high would favour the bulls to suggest MINOR 3 uptrend is underway —although it does appear to be already underway given the strong daily candle.

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[josegines]

this MINOR 3 wave, if it is underway, could be strong, and rise quite a bit with almost no corrections.

Have you calculated projections for this MINOR 3 based on the size of the 1? MINOR3=MINOR1,  MINOR3=1.618(MINOR1), ...

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this MINOR 3 wave, if it is underway, could be strong, and rise quite a bit with almost no corrections.
Have you calculated projections for this MINOR 3 based on the size of the 1? MINOR3=MINOR1,  MINOR3=1.618(MINOR1), ...

The initial expectation for MINOR 3 is as follows, using COINBASE pricing...
 

Code:

$106,059 : MINOR 3 = MINOR 1 * 1.618

 
 

[josegines]

this MINOR 3 wave, if it is underway, could be strong, and rise quite a bit with almost no corrections.
Have you calculated projections for this MINOR 3 based on the size of the 1? MINOR3=MINOR1,  MINOR3=1.618(MINOR1), ...

The initial expectation for MINOR 3 is as follows, using COINBASE pricing...
 

Code:

$106,059 : MINOR 3 = MINOR 1 * 1.618

It's funny, with Binance BTCUSDT prices, it turns out to be 91k, if I haven't miscalculated it. It's too much difference.

At 106k, what I get is x2:

MINOR 3 = 2 x MINOR 1 --->   106k$

MINOR 3 = 1.618 x MINOR 1 --->  91k$

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It's funny, with Binance BTCUSDT prices, it turns out to be 91k, if I haven't miscalculated it. It's too much difference.

At 106k, what I get is x2:

MINOR 3 = 2 x MINOR 1 --->   106k$

MINOR 3 = 1.618 x MINOR 1 --->  91k$

[josegines]

I will have done something wrong, I will review it.

[josegines]

It's funny, with Binance BTCUSDT prices, it turns out to be 91k, if I haven't miscalculated it. It's too much difference.

At 106k, what I get is x2:

MINOR 3 = 2 x MINOR 1 --->   106k$

MINOR 3 = 1.618 x MINOR 1 --->  91k$

Do you think we are still in the first wave of MINOR 3 or do we have to wait for a correction to find out more?

When the rise stops, if we are still in the first wave, how much would be the minimum correction of the second wave? 23.6%?

Thanks!

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Do you think we are still in the first wave of MINOR 3 or do we have to wait for a correction to find out more?

When the rise stops, if we are still in the first wave, how much would be the minimum correction of the second wave? 23.6%?

Thanks!

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[josegines]

Do you think we are still in the first wave of MINOR 3 or do we have to wait for a correction to find out more?

When the rise stops, if we are still in the first wave, how much would be the minimum correction of the second wave? 23.6%?

Thanks!

I am impressed that you can already do a count when there has barely been a major correction, I suppose you make a reviewable approximation if we see that a major correction starts.

That is, now the price could do fundamentally 2 things, it can break the previous ATH with little correction or it can correct something, for example looking for the 7 / Sep high at $ 52,700 (MINOR 1 Top), and then break the ATH

I mean that now you can be reasonably clear that we would be in MINOR 3, but to know the development of that MINOR 3, I thought you would need a boost and its correction to be seen more clearly. Of course I don't have your skill to see those waves in MINOR 3.

That is, it could be the case that yesterday a maximum was made and a correction of several days began, and it would continue to be valid for the MINOR 3

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I am impressed that you can already do a count when there has barely been a major correction, I suppose you make a reviewable approximation if we see that a major correction starts.

That is, now the price could do fundamentally 2 things, it can break the previous ATH with little correction or it can correct something, for example looking for the 7 / Sep high at $ 52,700 (MINOR 1 Top), and then break the ATH

I mean that now you can be reasonably clear that we would be in MINOR 3, but to know the development of that MINOR 3, I thought you would need a boost and its correction to be seen more clearly. Of course I don't have your skill to see those waves in MINOR 3.

That is, it could be the case that yesterday a maximum was made and a correction of several days began, and it would continue to be valid for the MINOR 3

The count is always subject to review. For example, if a wave subdivides and extends, then a wave-4 pullback could actually be a wave-2 pullback. Hence, the degree of a wave is always uncertain until a substantial countermove occurs in the trend.

MINOR 2 pullback was -25% in size. Therefore, the expectation is that MINOR 3 uptrend ought to have pullbacks limited to sub -25% in size. If there is a pullback of around -25% within MINOR 3 wave, then it either means MINOR 3 is subdividing, or MINOR 4 is underway, or the entire structure is revised to one degree lower. In terms of size, there is an initial expectation that MINOR 3 is going to extend MINOR 1 by 1.618% in size —i.e. at least $100K in price. Given the aforementioned points, an estimation of the wave count can be attempted, subject to revision.

Start with the 'bigger picture' and identify the notable countertrend moves —these will be either wave-2 or wave-4 pullbacks. And then you can start filling-in the gaps to identify and label the other waves...


 

[josegines]

The count is always subject to review. For example, if a wave subdivides and extends, then a wave-4 pullback could actually be a wave-2 pullback. Hence, the degree of a wave is always uncertain until a substantial countermove occurs in the trend.

MINOR 2 pullback was -25% in size. Therefore, the expectation is that MINOR 3 uptrend ought to have pullbacks limited to sub -25% in size. If there is a pullback of around -25% within MINOR 3 wave, then it either means MINOR 3 is subdividing, or MINOR 4 is underway, or the entire structure is revised to one degree lower. In terms of size, there is an initial expectation that MINOR 3 is going to extend MINOR 1 by 1.618% in size —i.e. at least $100K in price. Given the aforementioned points, an estimation of the wave count can be attempted, subject to revision.

Start with the 'bigger picture' and identify the notable countertrend moves —these will be either wave-2 or wave-4 pullbacks. And then you can start filling-in the gaps to identify and label the other waves...

 

It seems that if we are doing (5), it will end in December(only 2 months), it does not seem to last any longer.

But would there be chances that we are doing (3) instead of (5), and thus the top of this bull cycle will be delayed to March-April / 2022?

I understand that as you have the count no, but I imagine that there could be possibilities to redo the count.

I am thinking that we may be close to a very important moment, nothing less than we could have the new ATH in just 2 months. It is too close!!!

Thanks for your explanation!

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

It seems that if we are doing (5), it will end in December(only 2 months), it does not seem to last any longer.

But would there be chances that we are doing (3) instead of (5), and thus the top of this bull cycle will be delayed to March-April / 2022?

I understand that as you have the count no, but I imagine that there could be possibilities to redo the count.

I am thinking that we may be close to a very important moment, nothing less than we could have the new ATH in just 2 months. It is too close!!!

Thanks for your explanation!

Current estimation is for the PRIMARY[5] bull market to end either by around Christmas 2021 or around Easter 2022, with initial expectations of around 136K or 220K as a top.

Your suggestion of (5) actually being a (3) would look like the following chart...

    https://i.ibb.co/LYmSQSD/BTCUSD.png

Such an extended count would take the PRIMARY[5] bull market well beyond the Halving in 2024. Historically, there has never been a Halving at all-time highs during a core bull market. Is it possible? Sure. However, best to eliminate the more conservative counts first before jumping ahead.