2021 Elliott Wave

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[1714607047]

1714607047

[sedactoo+04]

Thanks for the updates, as far as I remember, you were expecting a primary WXY wave for the major altcoins, I wonder if you are still going with those counts.

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Thanks for the updates, as far as I remember, you were expecting a primary WXY wave for the major altcoins, I wonder if you are still going with those counts.

Not tracking the Altcoins in detail, but suffice to say a rising tide carries all boats. ETH and LTC charts are below, heading to beyond their 2018 all-time highs...

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[CookieFactory]

Thoughts on this 4th wave playing out as a few weeks of sideways (ranging between ~30-35K) action rather than making a new local low?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Thoughts on this 4th wave playing out as a few weeks of sideways (ranging between ~30-35K) action rather than making a new local low?

Its possible this Wave-4 does meander sideways for a few weeks, but still overall expecting a revisit to the 04-JAN-2021 lows.

The corresponding Wave-2 to this Wave-4 occurred in AUG-2020, and it took 4 weekly candles to play out, and it was a shallower 20% pullback.

Since this Wave-4 has already had a 30% pullback in 4 days; if it doesn't complete by this week, it ought to complete by next week is the current thinking.

[exstasie]

Thoughts on this 4th wave playing out as a few weeks of sideways (ranging between ~30-35K) action rather than making a new local low?

Its possible this Wave-4 does meander sideways for a few weeks, but still overall expecting a revisit to the 04-JAN-2021 lows.

The corresponding Wave-2 to this Wave-4 occurred in AUG-2020, and it took 4 weekly candles to play out, and it was a shallower 20% pullback.

The rule of alternation would suggest a sharp pullback in Wave 4, yes.

Sentiment feels very "Wave B" to me (as in Wave B of a higher degree ABC sharp Wave 4). Mid-June 2017 comes to mind. Everyone seems very quick to assume we're going to new ATHs immediately. Binance and Bitmex swap funding rates are already back at 0.06%. Sentiment just feels a little bit too greedy still. A sweep below $30K would shake confidence perfectly, leaving bulls out of position, setting the stage for another parabolic leg up.

Thanks for the updates, xxxx123abcxxxx. Very informative!

[sedactoo+04]

Thoughts on this 4th wave playing out as a few weeks of sideways (ranging between ~30-35K) action rather than making a new local low?

Its possible this Wave-4 does meander sideways for a few weeks, but still overall expecting a revisit to the 04-JAN-2021 lows.

The corresponding Wave-2 to this Wave-4 occurred in AUG-2020, and it took 4 weekly candles to play out, and it was a shallower 20% pullback.

The rule of alternation would suggest a sharp pullback in Wave 4, yes.

Sentiment feels very "Wave B" to me (as in Wave B of a higher degree ABC sharp Wave 4). Mid-June 2017 comes to mind. Everyone seems very quick to assume we're going to new ATHs immediately. Binance and Bitmex swap funding rates are already back at 0.06%. Sentiment just feels a little bit too greedy still. A sweep below $30K would shake confidence perfectly, leaving bulls out of position, setting the stage for another parabolic leg up.

Thanks for the updates, xxxx123abcxxxx. Very informative!

Agreed.
Actually I am in between Mid-June 2017 and Nov 2017. But as you said everyone seems to be very quick for the ATHs.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Thoughts on this 4th wave playing out as a few weeks of sideways (ranging between ~30-35K) action rather than making a new local low?

Its possible this Wave-4 does meander sideways for a few weeks, but still overall expecting a revisit to the 04-JAN-2021 lows.

The corresponding Wave-2 to this Wave-4 occurred in AUG-2020, and it took 4 weekly candles to play out, and it was a shallower 20% pullback.

The rule of alternation would suggest a sharp pullback in Wave 4, yes.

Sentiment feels very "Wave B" to me (as in Wave B of a higher degree ABC sharp Wave 4). Mid-June 2017 comes to mind. Everyone seems very quick to assume we're going to new ATHs immediately. Binance and Bitmex swap funding rates are already back at 0.06%. Sentiment just feels a little bit too greedy still. A sweep below $30K would shake confidence perfectly, leaving bulls out of position, setting the stage for another parabolic leg up.

Thanks for the updates, xxxx123abcxxxx. Very informative!

Agreed.
Actually I am in between Mid-June 2017 and Nov 2017. But as you said everyone seems to be very quick for the ATHs.

Agree, still thinking the rise from the 11-JAN-2021 low to present is a B-wave. But if it exceeds all-time highs, then will have to begin considering the resumption of the uptrend.

Wave pattern-wise, ought to be equivalent to 12-JUN-2017 to 16-JUL-2017 —a period of MINUTE [iv] pullback during the Halving.

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Perhaps a final leg lower to complete the pullback...?

[Bbirdy]

Thank you for updating the analysis on this thread.

I was afraid that something bad happened to you (with the Covid hanging around it happened quickly) not seeing any more news about the old 2019.

Happy new year

[Bbirdy]

Thoughts on this 4th wave playing out as a few weeks of sideways (ranging between ~30-35K) action rather than making a new local low?

The corresponding Wave-2 to this Wave-4 occurred in AUG-2020, and it took 4 weekly candles to play out, and it was a shallower 20% pullback.

Est-il possible que la vague 2 soit de type Z et que la vague 4 de type P ?
La durée d'une vague P est au minimum de 2 fois la durée de la vague Z.
Ce qui impliquerait une durée minimum de 42 jours.

la proposition de ce type de décompte est surligné en jaune fluo sur votre graphique que j'ai recopié.

Merci

Is it possible that wave 2 is type Z and wave 4 is type P?
The duration of wave P is at least 2 times the duration of wave Z.
This would imply a minimum duration of 42 days.

The proposal of this type of count is highlighted in fluorescent yellow on your graph that I copied.

Thank you

https://invst.ly/tjwky

[JL0]

Perhaps a final leg lower to complete the pullback...?

Thank you for your update. What you think about Masterluc's idea ?

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/gHUEkf5l-Current-daily-alarming-signals/

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Est-il possible que la vague 2 soit de type Z et que la vague 4 de type P ?
La durée d'une vague P est au minimum de 2 fois la durée de la vague Z.
Ce qui impliquerait une durée minimum de 42 jours.

la proposition de ce type de décompte est surligné en jaune fluo sur votre graphique que j'ai recopié.

Merci

Yes, its possible. But so are a number of other scenarios. Best to anticipate the most simplest structure first, and then adjust for complexities as required.

Once five impulsive waves can be discerned from a low, on at least the hourly timeframe, a call for a potential bottom can then be attempted.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Thank you for your update. What you think about Masterluc's idea ?

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/gHUEkf5l-Current-daily-alarming-signals/

Too steep of a pullback. At worst, not expecting below ~26K.

[Bbirdy]

Thank you for your wise and informed advice.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Thank you for your wise and informed advice.

Guesswork at best. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't..!

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Perhaps a Wave-4 falling wedge triangle...?