Bitcoin Forum

In the last month I have been working together with @JayJuanGee (JJG), to implement a website (https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy) version of this Sustainable Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy, which serves as a guide to maintenance and liquidation of a Bitcoin portfolio, based on the 200 week moving average.

There are several threads about it, and I believe there is a good consolidation of his idea here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5475347.msg63213914#msg63213914)

His strategy existed basically in excel sheets, but now there is a website version with many interactive functions:


https://www.talkimg.com/images/2023/12/27/IhMPc.png (https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy)
https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

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There are basically 2 sides:
To the left you will input your data. How much BTC you want to use in this strategy and how much is your annual withdrawal rate. (recommended 4 to 6%, conservative)

To the right, you will see how much btc you are authorized to withdrawal per month based on the 200WMA. However, you may be allowed to withdrawal advanced months if the difference between spot price and 200WMA is too high.

Also, you can take a look in the past data (choose date button) and see how much you would had been authorized in the past using this tool/strategy.

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There is certainly a lot of room for improvement, and I would like to hear from WO members and @fillippone which was very active in the recent discussions with JJG.

Please help me find bugs and share your ideas.

Very lovely and very neatly presented.
I will play more extensively with this in the coming weeks.
I would suggest implementing some more complete “views” of the future scenario: how will my stash be depleted if Bitcoin grows in the future according to a few data points?

Page and chart loads a bit slower on my side, but it looks interesting, maybe like reversed dollar cost averaging.
Word withdrawal sounds to me like Bitcoin is held on some centralized website or exchange, because I would never use this term if I ever sold BTC from my non-custodial wallet.

Chart bug, it's not always loading and I have blank space in that field.
Even if I refresh page with f5 it still doesn't load.

Wow, this is amazing, bitmover!

The way the site enables visualization and interaction with the strategy is so much more user-friendly than any Excel sheet.

I'll admit, I was new to this strategy, but your site made it easy to grasp the concept. Really impressive work!


While exploring, I did come across a couple of bugs:

- The interest rate seems fixed at 6% and doesn't change when the bar is moved.
- The BTC stash size remains the same even after I click "save inputs" before refreshing the page. It resets to 1 BTC.

Hope this feedback helps.
I'm looking forward to diving deeper into the site and seeing it evolve.

Keep up the great work!

Also, I have some ideas for future features if you're interested.

Thank you.

I will think about implementations of this. This might be a dull chart, like this
but I think this is necessary.

(this only consider withdrawal 4% anual)
https://www.talkimg.com/images/2023/12/28/I78pP.png


I know this is a bit slow.. I will try to make it faster, just the first release. I think I will reduce datapoints and add option to see only the past years (this will increase performance)

This is "withdrawal" from your portfolio, selling BTC to convert to some other assets, or just to spend it (in case you are already retired and not in the accumulation phase anymore)


I think coingecko has a limitation of API requests. If chart is blank, just wait a few seconds to reload it again.



Thank you!

I got those fixed. I made a small change in the code a few hours ago that broke that. Thanks.

Please share with me! I am looking for suggestions to improve this, and even create more tools to train my skills

Both Graphs working fine at my end. Graph takes 5 or 6 second initially to load itself but are loading. So nothing to worry about that.

I have already given you a small suggestion here, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg63400036#msg63400036

May be we can dark the colour of 200-Week MA line on main graph and bold it, so it looks more prominent.

It will also be good idea if there is zoom in and zoom out functionality in Graphs. Like Graphs are showing data from 2013 to 2023. If you can provide functionality that can allow us to see data for say last 5 years or 1 year only.

Just my few satoshis. Overall its a fantastic job and 10/10 for that work.

Nice! It is working!
BTW, if it is possible to add a field to type the Annual withdrawal rate, it will help. Fine tuning the bar is not easy - at least for me! Haha


I'm sure that's not the goal, but I was thinking about the possibility of using the data and the graph to also indicate potential moments of purchase.
So in the future, if you think it makes sense, you could include some parameters (to be defined by each user), which, when reached, would send an alert indicating the moment.
ex: If the 200WMA drops to x%, send me an alert indicating purchase.

Keep with the work!

It seems to me that visualization of the future how it relates to your stash size, and your withdrawal rate comes through a projection of what the 200-week moving average does, which historically it has ONLY gone up, so far... but then it also has to do with what the BTC price does that will thereby affect how much you are able to withdraw and we are not really projecting future prices, even though we are suggesting that if you keep your withdrawal rate at a certain level, then some of those withdrawal rates are more sustainable than others.

Yeah, I know that I am kind of dodging the suggestion regarding how those kinds of tools (or visualizations) might be added based on knowables but at the same time unknowables... but we are trying to do it based on the knowables, right?  which concededly, we can ONLY know so much.

You can see those kinds of historical numbers for the 200-WMA and the future projection of the 200-WMA in my entry-level fuck you status chart (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719591#msg58719591), and then in that chart I believe that I am attempting to conservatively project ahead how many BTC it takes to be at entry-level fuck you status in that chart which ends up projecting ahead the 200-week moving average.. which ONLY infers the spot price to be ongoingly higher in order to drag the 200-WMA upwardly and in an ongoing way, so yeah, it could take some creativity to figure out some good ways to attempt to display those kinds of ideas and to intermix the ideas and to include the personal input data in order to really attempt to figure out what might be a more conservative (or way to keep growing your BTC stash while you are withdrawing from it) as compared with a more regular "sustainable" withdrawal rate versus a more aggressive withdrawal rate that is likely going to end up depleting your BTC stash.

It seems to me that using the 200-week moving average as a means to valuate your BTC stash in terms of the bottom prices but then to juxtapose that with the BTC spot price, then we make adjustments to how much we are authorizing ourselves to withdraw based on how far the spot price is from the 200-week moving average, but then at the same time, we should not have to continue to change whatever level of aggressiveness that we choose to employ based on our chosen percentage of withdrawal.

Of course, you can use this particular tool without necessarily reaching entry-level fuck you status, but just to maybe create a budget for yourself or some sub-organization, but let's say that we use entry-level fuck you status as our guideline for how many coins that we feel that we need prior to using the tool, and if we look at my chart, we will see that based on the 200-week moving average, as of the end of November 2023, we would have had needed to have 68.85 BTC to reach the threshold value of $2 million (again based on the 200-week moving average) not based on the BTC spot price, so if we started to withdrawal at a pretty conservative rate of 4% per year (or 1% per quarter or 0.333 per month) as the website would help us to get at those values for today or historically,^** we would be authorized to withdraw 0.2295 BTC per month as long as the BTC spot price is at least 25% above the 200-week moving average, and we could withdraw extra months depending on how high above the 200-week moving average we are.


** I did just input this info into the website and I noticed that future dates are allowed to be put into the date field, and that must be an error since we currently do not have any formulas for the future, and that is another thing that is difficult about any future trajectory of how much we would be able to withdraw would be based on the then price relative to the 200-week moving average, the BTC price is not at least 25% higher than the 200-WMA, we would not be allowed to withdraw the full month's allocation but instead a percentage depending on how low the spot price is on the day that we are doing the calculation... so we might have choices from time to time whether we withdraw the full authorized amount, and then if the BTC price is at least 25% higher we could withdraw the whole month's authorization and if it is 33% or higher then we are authorized to withdraw multiple of months, but we could elect not to withdraw months in advance because maybe we are choosing for when (or if) the BTC price goes to higher levels then we would be authorized to withdraw more months in advance.. and there is a certain presumption of not only withdrawing, but converting to dollars otherwise there is no real benefit to withdrawing the extra months (the advance months) based on the then BTC spot price.

Presumptively if we are withdrawing in a conservative way such as below 6%, then the dollar value of our BTC would have good chances of going up, even though our BTC stack size would be going down, and presumptively if we are withdrawing between 6% to 10% then the fiat value of our stash may well stay at similar levels, and finally the more aggressive that we are beyond 10% then the larger the chance that we are depleting our stash value in terms of its ability to sustain its dollar value at the rate we are withdrawing it... and we label 17% and higher be extremely aggressive and the tool allows going up to 30% per year.. but yeah visualizing how that might affect our level of sustainability might take some higher level math skills (referring to my own challenges to come up with what the right formulas might be and then how to display that .. .which also kinds of reminds me that some of the numbers that I have chosen are somewhat arbitrary in regards to where I chose to divide, which may or may not be eligible for better formulas rather than my having had chosen some of the dividing points)..


I have heard people use that term, and I am not much of a fan of that term to apply to the way that I think about cashing out or liquidating or withdrawing your BTC, especially if you are striving towards employing such withdrawals in a sustainable way... . Of course, I am not going to proclaim that you are completely off of your rocker for making that kind of an attempt at a comparison.  

Let me see if I can elaborate.  If we consider the traditional DCA practice, it is a kind of price blind way buying of BTC that is largely dependent upon what is your discretionary income and then buying when you have the discretionary income so it could be regularly set and kind of mild or it can be maximized in a way that uses all of the discretionary income as that discretionary income comes in.

The system of sustainable withdrawal could look at the whole BTC stash size and then calculate from there or maybe just choosing a portion of the BTC stash that might be to create an income stream for a project and how much money comes through the BTC stash could be ongoing and even perpetual in nature as long as it is more on the conservative side rather than aggressive side.  Of course, if someone might be more aggressive in their wanting to get out of BTC, then they could set much higher percentages for withdrawal (which may well be more like reverse DCA - getting out of the BTC position), but I was not considering the tool in that kind of way, even though I suppose it could be used in that kind of way, especially if we are setting it more aggressively with the percentage amounts. I recall that when bitmover first set up the percentage slider, he only allowed it to go up to 20%, and he agreed with my suggestion to go up to 30%, which surely from my thinking would be quite far from sustainable withdraw but it may well be considered to be something like getting out of a BTC position in a reverse DCA kind of a way.. and even with a 30% withdrawal rate, it could end up taking 5 years or more to really deplete your BTC stash, depending on how BTC prices perform.. (I am not sure if it is worth it to allow the tool to go higher than 30%, even though I don't really have an objections to that for someone who might be wanting to get out of his position fast, so maybe we could end up allowing the tool to be used in that kind of a way.. and then call it "reverse DCA"... hahahahahaha  that would be funny. I am warming up to the idea of reverse DCA in that kind of a super aggressive withdrawal context).


Maybe there is a better word?  but it seems that I had likely gotten that word (whether subliminally or otherwise) from the idea of a retirement account, and the reference to a withdrawal rate of 3% or 4%, which means that there is withdrawal from the investment and use of the funds for various kinds of consumption and/or income.

Withdrawal is the term that is already used for pretty much the kind of thing that I a trying to describe in regards to bitcoin as the primary asset, and sure no one is saying that bitcoin would be the only asset that a person has, so if we go back to fuck you status, and maybe someone has a variety of accounts stocks, bonds, commodities, properties, and/or perhaps cash and cash equivalents, so there may be choices about how much to withdraw from each, and let's say that bitcoin was half of the amount (so $1 million) and then the other non-bitcoin assets was the other half, so bitcoin might have a certain formula and the others have a certain formula, and maybe we are striving to withdraw $6,666 for our monthly income from all of those sources, so it could be that if we create sustainable withdrawal rates in regards to all of them, such as at 4% per year, then they could likely be withdrawn from forever as long as they are appreciating in value at least on average of 4% per year, but I continue to suspect that bitcoin is going to outperform other assets, and that is part of the reason that it retains a 200-week moving average that continues to move up quite aggressively. .and its worse performance over the last 18 months still had the 200 week moving up at 20% on an annual basis (see the historical depictions of 6 month increments in my fuck you status chart (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719591#msg58719591)) .  So I suppose that part of the reason why the website is labelling 6-10% as sustainable withdrawal is partially based on bitcoin's historical price performance but also some anticipation that the 6-10% per year is sustainable in terms of the bitcoin stash retaining its dollar value, in spite of something like a 6-10% withdrawal rate.


I was having that issue sometimes too.. I think mostly in Chrome, but then when I switched over to Safari it was working fine.. but then it would resolve itself in Chrome after a while too.


Yes there could be some kind of way of presenting the matter, and for sure if the withdrawal rate is steadily at 4%, then the BTC quantity would go down 4% per year like that, but somehow we would have to account for both the dollar value and also the extent to which we might end up getting throttled in our BTC withdrawal rate if the BTC price might go to less than 25% higher than the 200-week moving average and also, if we withdraw months in advance based on high prices, we may well end up using some of that money to buy back some BTC, sure we cannot presume that we would buy back BTC, merely if we were to withdraw 23 months or more in advance.. so in accordance with the tool, once the BTC price goes more than 400% above the 200-week moving average, then we would be authorized to withdraw 24 months (the current month plus 23 months in advance) and I had built in several of those kinds of authorization that go up to the ability to withdraw 59 months in advance (which is 5 years), so it may well end up being the case that bitcoin does not turn back down in such a way that there is any concerns to want to be able to live off of those advanced amounts, so BTC could end up getting bought back and then increasing the BTC stash and increasing future withdrawals based on quantity of BTC that is being used to calculate future withdrawals.  

Historically, we could look back and maybe put in the date of December 17, 2017 and we can see that the tool would have had authorized withdrawing 59 months in advance based on a 1,491% difference between the then spot price and the 200-WMA, but even if the person used such guidance to have monthly living expenses for 59 months, the bear market of 2018, 2019 and 2020 did not last even close to 59 months, so there could have been a determination at some point to use some of those sold months to buy back in, even in early 2019 (between April 1 and the end of June), there could have had been a decision to use some of those extra sold months (the 59 months in advance) to buy back some BTC.. and then reenable the ability to use the tool again.. since by the way, the idea of cashing out in advance means that you cannot sell any more (or withdraw anymore) BTC for all of those months in advance that you had withdrawn absent either using some of the months to buy back BTC, or if the BTC price goes up above the number of months in advance that you had sold in order that you would be authorized additional months to sell (or withdraw more).  


I agree that it would be nice if both the slider and the manual entry could exist.. even though the slider does have the nice little changing of descriptors of conservative, moderate, aggressive and severely aggressive.


That sounds interesting to send alerts and of course we are mostly thinking in terms of alerting for possible sells (since this is a selling tool), but once such a tool is created, it could be used in either direction (meaning for selling and/or for buying).. so I am not sure how difficult it would be to add some kind of a tool like that, but it does sound interesting as a concept...

On the other hand, wouldn't the user have to provide some kind of data such as e-mail or sms.. and then would we be able to blindly interface with that, without collecting any user data?  I think that we are probably a bit nervous about any kind of collection or retention of user data.. at least at this point.. but of course, with discussions of monetization some times there can develop trade-offs to weigh differently with the passage of time.

@Moderators:  I am hoping you do not merge my last two posts because I brought these below responses of mine over from the WO thread, and it seems more clear (and less confusing) to keep these below responses in a separate post.


Yes.  We may as well bring that part of the discussion over here to see if anyone has any further responses. 

I responded a couple of times to your particular line of discussion, and there were some other responses that I made to some other inquirerers, but I am not sure if all of my responses would be necessary, even though they would be more topical in this thread, so that bitmover might be able to see if there is some technical angle.. ..

Here it is:

Yes I have read that detailed response on WO thread.

You are right in saying that web site is just up and there need to be a detailed QA of this site before adding some new stuff here.

I will also try to come up with some points from technical aspect that can improve this project.

Done!


I will add buttons of 1M,6M,1Y, 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, ALL. It is in my TODO list.


Fixed!!!

You cannot enter future dates anymore.


I think this chart "Portfolio decumulation" or depletion or something like that is important. Specially when moving the range pointer, so you can see how long your stash will survive.

The user can see the inclination changes and how long it will last.

TO DO!


decumulation perhaps?


[
This chart will be interesting, another TODO!


User would probably have to create an account with an email or something like that.

The email could even come with a letter with some investment advice from JJG?  :)

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JayJuanGee , I saw your PM about changing some more features, I will do that with the new buttons on the chart in a next ( bigger) update!

I just tried it, and you are correct that it is not possible to click on the calendar for the input of future dates, but I can still input future dates manually.


I realize that I responded in long ways and even meandered away from the main points about ability to show some kind of of a meaningful trajectory, so there may be ways to give some ballpark ideas of that, and of course, the basic presumption would be that we are ONLY withdrawing and not continuing to add to our stash, so the basic trajectory of the BTC stash is would by trajectored out as going down, but it could be misleading to presume that your BTC stash is actually losing value in terms of dollars (or even purchasing power), so it would need to include some kind of idea of dollar value, which brings another GIANT unknown in regards to whether how well the dollar might even retain a meaningful debasement rate - but even if we attempt to assume away that the dollar is debasing at nominal rates that still allows for us to be able to sustain our purchasing power value in real terms, then we still would be trying to attempt to measure a variety of unmeasurables (or unknowns) and still end up engaging in quite a bit of ballparking of the estimates (which still is not necessarily a bad thing to do - because we want to be able to provide a calculator in which individuals are able to have tools to help themselves to best estimate future possibilities, even if there is a recognition that the tool is still ballparking.. and the further it projects out into the future the more it is ballparking).

So just to reiterrate, in terms of BTC terms, we could draw from our BTC 4% or even 10% every single year into perpetuity, and we are never going to deplete our BTC to zero, but the number will get increasingly smaller and smaller, and so yeah, the larger the percentage we are drawing out, then the more it is going to deplete, so the main question seems to be if the dollar is debasing faster than our withdrawal rate (or in other words if the purchasing power of our remaining BTC is going up  faster than the rate that we are withdrawing it), and there seems to be no way to really project very accurately in these regards, even though we can project out that our BTC stash is getting smaller (and maybe that is all that fillippone is saying that he would like to be able to see.. and I have no real problem showing that).. but is that visualization of our BTC shrinking to such tiny amounts really telling us very much when it still depends upon the dollar value, so the remaining BTC still might be going up in purchasing power, even though the amount would inevitably be going down with the passage of time..


I personally would like to just stick with the traditional word of "withdraw" because it is used in a lot of circles and it is generally widely known and probably quite descriptive of what we are doing (or calculating the doing of such).

In my battling around of the idea, I do believe that dkbit98's discussion of the reverse DCA did raised a more important point about the potential utility of allowing the tool to have greater than 30% withdrawal rates, which I may well want to suggest that any amount higher than 30% would fall into the categorization of reverse DCA (a kind of quick disinvestment perspective).. yet since the actual tool is presenting withdrawal on a monthly basis, even a 40% annual withdrawal rate would result in 10% per quarter and 3% per month, so it could still be possible to have a pretty long withdrawal period (or reverse DCA), even if the rate was set at 40%, the withdrawal period still might end up lasting close to 3 years and still making sense in regards to the quantity of BTC being withdrawn monthly at the end of the 3-year period as compared to what it had been at the beginning of the 3-year period.. of course, part of the meaningfulness of the withdrawal amount may well have to do with whether BTC is in an upward trend during that time or a downward trend.


It will be interesting to see what you come up with, yet I am still thinking that some of the projections could end up overlapping into other areas of future projection, and if we follow through with some kind of a raking page and then maybe somehow formulating a fuck you status projection page (we might need to call it something more user-friendly?), then maybe some of those formulas (or data projection or presumptions of the future) could get incorporated into such a visual.


I don't really like the idea of a letter, but maybe a 30-minute or a 60-minute phone call, even though I don't really like the idea of advice, but instead maybe brainstorming because I would likely be suggesting that people can do whatever they like and they are responsible for their own investment choices, but some guys (and maybe gal) might want to discuss in a less public way: "Hey, this is what I was thinking about doing" and maybe I could say whether I understand it or not and make some suggestions that they could consider.. but I hate to really call it advice even though sometimes some people might be willing to just go with what I say rather than really brainstorming their own particulars.. but then that could be part of the idea.. I suppose that if someone were to want to have a discussion, then they might have had already thought through some of their plans in regards to their own portfolio size and their various circumstances and perspectives as in the 9 factors to consider (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719590#msg58719590), so maybe they would want to discuss in some kind of a personalized way one or more of the factors. .. but still sounds scary to me in terms of monetization or subscription model and I am not really wanting to create any further of a job for myself.  hahahahahaha

We could outsource it.


Sure.  That sounds good, and there are ONLY so many hours in a day.

The site is already very workable in terms of making it way easier to get answers to the sustainable withdrawal questions as compared to trying to figure out which boxes might apply in a spreadsheet.

Done! I decided to make a change and remove the brush chart (the smaller one below).

I think it was taking too long to render and was making the website too heavy.

It should be faster and lighter now!

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/01/04/sGpqH.png
https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

Tell me what you think!

I like it!

I see the website description is JJG ....., which I think is not too bad but you can improve it.

JJG, what's this?
It's a good note for what JJG means. I see the reference link to Bitcointalk but a note for JJG is not bad.

Do you think so?

The pages does seem to be faster now, and I like the time periods added and also the check box for log (as opposed to linear, right?).. Although even when I uncheck log, it still shows "log scale" in the description.

After you removed the "brush chart," I am not sure if it is possible to zoom now (into further back for example if I wanted to look at linear from 2010 to 2016, I cannot really see them very well on this chart and sometimes I might want to just pick any 4 year period or even shorter and then zoom in on it).  Previously we could use that "brush chart" feature to zoom in on a particular historical price area.  Could we add a link in order that the brush chart could still be present and allow zooming on another page and even go between linear and logarithmic or maybe in a pop-up window?  I am thinking that sometimes it could be handy to compare various dates or to zoom in on various periods, even if such functionality might not be within the initial loading page.   


Ok.. Let me give a couple:

I'm thinking that there is some need for a couple points of clarity on the right output side. 

1) From top to bottom.

As a title it says A) "Monthly Authorized Withdrawal" and then as a second title it says B) "Authorized Withdrawal" and then in the greyed output field it says C) "Authorized Withdrawal"

A) is o.k.. 

B) should be removed (because redunant)

and

C) should be amended to say "Authorized BTC Withdrawal"  (will make more clear - user-friendly)


2) Below in the Advanced Withdrawal.. . in the output greyed field where it says:  "Advanced Withdrawal" it should be amended to say "Advanced BTC Withdrawal" (will make more clear - user-friendly)


Personally, I think that the reference link that Bitmover put in there is enough.. and JJG would likely be a kind of branding or short-hand that need not be further explained, and we may well end up having a few more additional pages that have 1) a JJG rake model (with optional reinvestment projection) and 2) a JJG entry-level fuck you status chart (maybe change the name of that? I am not sure yet). 

In other words, if you see various posts about JJG, then maybe we could put a link to a profile (but why?) or a link to some post that he (I) made (that also seems like a why?), but in the end, there might not be any need for a description that is more detailed than whatever substantive content is presented, since many of us in this forum are not necessarily seeking credibility by real-world credentials but perhaps to maintain some kind of pseudo-anonymous status which many members in the forum operate under such pseudo-nyms, including yours truly.

If you might be asking "what the fuck does JJG know that I don't know?" then, the answer may well be nothing. 

Each of us has various ideas that we have developed over the years, and likely the end goals would be for the ideas to stand on their own and to be somewhat explained in the context of the website or the various posts in this thread or related threads, which concededly there likely are some ways in which the formulas for authorized withdrawal amount and advance withdrawal amount might be made more clear.

I will have to think a little bit about this, because brush and buttons cause some conflicts when together.

Will come in the next update


Done, and made some UI improvements in the chart! Thanks

I see them integrated in the project. Looks more good now. Thanks for implementing them.

Will keep an eye on the project and provide more technical feedback to make it more attractive.

I don't know this strategy in detail. But, in a quick test I did, I didn't understand until when my BTC would be available, with this strategy. So I think it would be really interesting to have a timeline on this information.

Another interesting approach would be to indicate the USD value that the user wanted to withdraw. This allows you to get an idea of how long the value in your portfolio would last.

Another point that I noticed, although the price chart is possible to apply several temporal filters, I found it a little unnecessary (and perhaps confusing), since the strategy is about the last 200 days. So the graph should only show data from the last 200 days.

Here are my first impressions. I will keep an eye on the project. Thank you for your work.

Very good, can I make a suggestion?

put something like this, but referring to the past. For example.

If I had used this strategy from 2016 to 2020, how much return would it give? How much could I withdraw? It would be very interesting for those who are not used to this type of investment to see what profitability they would have lost if they had followed this strategy.

Other than that, very good and congratulations to everyone involved.

Yeah, fillippone made a similar suggestion to create a chart showing the portfolio balance over time.

It is in my todo list


It is a 200-week moving average, i.e, the average price of the last 1400 days.

The idea is to make an analysis  based on a series of averages of different selections of the whole price data available.


This is interesting.  This would be similar to the previous suggestion  , but looking back not forward.

I love the concept and the idea, it is very detailed however I expect to see a more robust scope of coverage in time to come. It might start as a narrowly focused concept or idea but will expand in a short while.

From the wealth of experiences you hav egarnered over the years, i expect to see them playout even as the trust in the community gets directed to your project.

I agree that there might be some easier or better ways to describe what is being attempted with this kind of tool, which means how any of us might attempt to put it into use for ourselves and in accordance with our circumstances (such as the size of our BTC stash or a part of our stash) and if we feel that we are getting to the stage that we would like to begin some kind of a regular and hopefully sustainable withdrawal depending on how aggressive that we might be in our withdrawal system.   Another thing is that maybe you have a bitcoin stash of 100, but you want to put 21 BTC into a business or a trust, and then tell them that their budget is based on the sustainable withdrawal system, and maybe you even tell them what withdrawal rate to use, and if you might be beginning with such process, you might choose a lower percentage, so that you get used to the idea of withdrawing, but you are withdrawing in such a conservative way that in a longer term basis you are not tending to lessen your BTC value, especially if you are measuring it in terms of the 200-week moving average rather than the spot price.  Of course, when you withdraw, you will get the spot price for the BTC that you sell, so there is a presumption that you are actually cashing out the BTC or using the BTC for some kind of a purchase of a good or service.

Well, I am going to try to stick with the 21 BTC as an example that I gave in my thread, and I showed more than a year of withdrawal and ONLY 0.5 BTC had been withdrawn, and those withdrawal amounts were generally on the conservative side... and still getting used to the system, yet at the same time, the BTC price spent a lot of time below the 200-week moving average, so the withdrawal amounts were reduced during that period of time, so if you look at the explanation on the site, the BTC spot price needs to be at least 25% the spot price before you are allowed to withdraw the full monthly allotment (based on whatever percent that you had already established, and my earlier examples used 4%, since that is quite a conservative percentage and lines up with traditional ideas of withdrawing asset, such as in retirement income purposes).

So if the BTC spot price is less than 25% above the 200-WMA, there are various gradients of reduction of the amount that is authorized for withdrawal.
https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/01/14/3Et0Z.png

If you look at the above selection of 20.5BTC at 4% withdrawal rate, you will see that currently, the spot price of that 20.5 BTC is 41.93% higher than the 200-week moving average, which makes the whole portfolio worth $877,072 in terms of its spot price as compare to its 200-wma value at only $617,975.24, so for this month, there is an ability to withdraw up to 0.6833333 BTC which has a BTC spot price value of $2,923.57 if you cash it out right away.  You can also cash out up to 1 month in advance, but then you won't be able to cash out the next month, unless the BTC price is at least to a level that authorizes additional months.  To me it seems that the most important number is the number of BTC that you can withdraw, and if the BTC price is changing throughout the month, then maybe it is less confusing to withdraw all at once for the month.  

You have the ability to define the beginning and end of the month however you like whether it starts on the 1st of the month or the 15th, and then whether you decide to withdrawal in a lump sum or 1/4th of the authorized amount weekly for 4 weeks.. which is not quite a month.. but according to this tool, a month is 1/12th of a year, even if there are different numbers of days in each month.

If you withdraw advance months, then you need to keep track of that.  Let's say that I decide to structure this tools so that my months begin on the 10th of each month, so the 10th would be the earliest that I could withdraw for January, and if I decide to withdraw for January and for February, then I would not be able to withdraw again until March 10 at the earliest, unless the BTC price passes above some other threshold that authorizes the withdrawal of additional months.  

Just because you can withdraw the max does not necessarily mean that you have to withdraw the max, especially if the BTC price is close to or even below the 200-week moving average, but if the BTC spot price goes to more than 14x higher than the 200-week moving average you may well be incentivized to take advantage of withdrawing the additional 59 months because the spot price is so high, and if you had already withdrawn some of the additional months at earlier stages, then it is upon you to keep track of how many months in advance that you had already withdrawn in order to figure out how many you still have remaining in your authorization, so if you had withdrawn 35 months in advance after the BTC price went 650% higher than the 200-week moving average, and then 1 month later the BTC price goes up 14x higher than the 200-week moving average, you could withdraw 24 or 25 extra months whether you had moved into a new month, and if you had not moved into a new month, you would only be able to withdraw 24 additional months in the 14x higher range (that is 59-35).

Maybe another example is in order.

If you had been using this same system on December 16, 2017, then maybe you might have needed to have 500 BTC in order to have a similar amount of 200-week moving average value as is the 20.5 BTC today, and at that point, BTC spot price was more than 15x higher than the 200-WMA, and your 200-WMA value would have been around $604k but your BTC spot price value would have been close to $10 million..

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/01/14/3EsS9.png

With a 4% withdrawal rate, the tool would have allowed you to withdraw 1.66666667 BTC per month and 59 months advanced, which would have had been 98.333333 BTC.  Of course, if you had already withdrawn some advanced BTC, you would only be authorized to withdraw the amount of BTC that you had remaining from the 59 advanced months and/or the then current month.


Each month, you are ONLY allowed to withdraw the BTC that is authorized for that month, so you should be measuring how much BTC to withdraw, and of course it has a dollar value that day that is changing on a regular basis, but the 200-week moving average does not change as much as the spot price.  And, you should able to continue to withdrawal in this kind of way in perpetuity (which is another way of saying sustainable) as long as BTC continues to perform at least as high as your withdrawal rate (which means that as long as the BTC increases in its dollar value on average at least at the rate that you are withdrawing).  Yeah your BTC amount will continue to go down but its dollar value would continue to go up at least at the rate that you are withdrawing, and if you are withdrawing more than the rate it goes up then the system would not be sustainable, but this system presumes sustainability based on fundamental analysis and various BTC price performance theories, including that you can look at my projection of the entry-level fuck you status chart (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719591#msg58719591), and if you believe that BTC future price projections should be more conservative than the ones that I indicated there (which seem somewhat conservative already), then you can reduce your withdrawal rate in accordance with your own beliefs in order to feel more comfortable with your own view regarding how much of a BTC withdrawal rater that you believe to be sustainable..


It is a 200-week moving average not the 200-day moving average.  200 weeks is about 4 years, and 200 days is about 2/3rds of a year.

Part of the reason to have the history is to see how the spot price has moved in reference to the 200-week moving average, and to see that the 200-week moving average tends to be a bottom, except the recent 16 months (between about June 2022 and October 2023) the 200-week MA was not as much of a complete bottom indicator, but still we stick with the theory of 200-week moving average mostly being a bottom price because it mostly holds up.  

This tool is also not for trading.. which might be something that the 200-day moving average might be used for.


We may well need to continue to figure out better ways to present this information.. or to clarify certain parts a bit better so it might start to seem more obvious regarding how to try to use the tool in ways that will be helpful to each of those wanting to use the tool.


It could be possible that we could give an example that would show someone starting with a certain BTC stash in 2016, and then ending with a smaller amount of BTC in 2020.  My Hypomyth chart  (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5475347.msg63213921#msg63213921)does something like that in order to project ahead.

Of course, above in my response to joker_josue I already mentioned that in terms of its dollar value, a budget of 20.5 BTC today is similar to a budget of 500 BTC in 2017, so the stash for 2016 would be even higher to be the equivalent of my 20.5 BTC example of today, and of course various posts in my thread also shows how the hypothetical had started out at 21 BTC in late 2022 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5475347.msg63213918#msg63213918), and currently has been reduced by 0.5 BTC due to monthly withdrawals.


If you know how to use the tool in terms of trying to make quick comparisons of how the 200-weekMA and the spot price have differed historically or even at any particular time (such as today right now as the price moves), the tool already provides a lot of information that would be otherwise difficult to figure out in such a rapid way and especially incorporating your own specifics into such a tool, that is if you know what the tool is showing.  

It could be the case that some of the information in the input area versus the output could be presented with some better clarity and some better explanations, but if you figure out a budget that you have (whether that is a budget of 20.5 BTC or some other amount) and if you figure out your withdrawal rate (whether you are going to use 4% or some other rate), then you can get some quick answers to your questions, including if you change the dates or if you quickly change some of the amounts that you would like to use.


I think that my entry-level fuck you status chart  (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719591#msg58719591)shows how bitcoin-bottom prices has performed over time, and if we believe that we have accumulated enough BTC, then we can start some kind of withdrawal of them on a regular basis... It may well not be a good idea to start any withdrawal system until reaching a certain quantity of BTC in which it starts to seem practical to move from the accumulation stage to the maintenance stage and then to the liquidation stage, and if you are still accumulating BTC and not quite sure which stage that you are in, then you might not have enough BTC to feel comfortable using the tool - especially since this is not meant to be a trading tool.. except to the extent that any of us could use this kind of tool to manage our BTC portfolio in a way that gives us more comfort in regards to guiding us regarding our monthly budget during times of high volatility, which is quite common for bitcoin historically and likely to be inevitable in bitcoin's future, in spite of people ongoingly wanting to suggest hat bitcoin is becoming a mature asset.. which relatively speaking I have my doubts about its volatility and/or battles going away in the coming 10-15 years or more.

Thank you for your explanation, I better understood the idea of this strategy, and the objective of the tool itself.

Basically, and very basically, the ideal would be for the person to consult this tool every month, to check whether or not they should make the withdrawal. Perhaps some more information could be added to the tool to help with this reading. And allow us to indicate whether or not it is recommended to make the withdrawal. Of course, in the end the decision is up to the person, based on the information collected.

Congratulations on the tool and idea. I will continue to follow.  ;)

I am trying to consider some possible ways to make some better examples and/or explanations regarding how to use the tool so that it might be more obvious on its face how might be the better ways to use the tool, even though at the same time, there is enough flexibility within the tool in terms of setting your own conditions regarding how much BTC that you want to subject to the tool or how high of a percentage you would like to use as your withdrawal rate.  So, in that sense, I have already attempted to make representations by labelling the withdrawal rates with recommendations in terms of "conservative" versus "moderate" versus "aggressive" vs "extremely aggressive," yet at the same time, it could be the case that my recommendations are not very good in terms of BTC's actual future price performance in contrast to what its future performance is speculated to be. 

Sure the tool is not going to help any of us to determine the extent to which we might have enough BTC in order to even consider starting such a BTC withdrawal strategy because we might be premature in our desire to extract value out of our stash prior to our really having had established a sufficient enough stash to begin such a process, and yeah, and the tool cannot really completely give such guidance.

So for example currently, I would suggest that currently the default fuck you status level (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719591#msg58719591) is around 67 BTC, that is $2 million / current 200-week moving average of $30,145 (you can plug those numbers in the tool and see those values); however, in my examples, I am describing a system to use "only" 21 BTC, and maybe even suggesting that 21 BTC could even be enough to begin such an ongoing withdrawal process even though default entry-level fuck you status has not yet been reached (if we might presume that there might be a goal to reach entry level fuck you status in the future), and still we well might well have great chances of reaching default entry-level fuck you status in the near future while engaging in a kind of sustainable withdrawal of the BTC rather than continuing to accumulate or even waiting to reach such entry-level fuck you status prior to beginning such a withdrawal.  Even my default entry-level fuck you status chart shows that the 200-week moving average might not move to a high enough level in order for 21 BTC to be entry-level fuck you status until late 2028, yet if by mid-2029, we were to still have at least 18.2 BTC, we may well would have still entered into default entry-level fuck you status, even if we engage in sustainable withdrawal so long as we had ended up depleting our BTC by slightly less than 3 BTC in the next 5-years-ish.

It seems to me that a guy would have better chances to be able to accomplish still growing his BTC value while engaging in ongoing withdrawals by engaging in more modest ("conservative") levels of BTC withdrawal such as 4% or lower rates of withdrawal rather than even using the higher levels of withdrawal of between 6% and 10% that I have labelled as "moderate," yet such higher levels of withdrawal would not necessarily be "moderate" if a guy is starting to use such tool with a BTC stash size that is way too small, such as if he might ONLY have a couple of bitcoin.. and I am not even saying that a couple of BTC is not enough to begin such a process of using such tool because each person has to decide for himself regarding what it is that he is wanting to achieve with his bitcoin and maybe what level of income (frequently considered as quasi-"passive" income) he would like to be able to withdraw from his bitcoin stash on a regular basis and still to either make sure it is sustaining its value, or maybe growing its value or maybe if he enters into aggressive withdrawal then he would be acknowledging that he may well be depleting his BTC stash rather than keeping it sustainable in a kind of perpetual way.   

So, yeah a guy could use the tool to help him in governing his whole BTC stash or maybe even if he were to create a separate BTC stash, and to create conditions on that separate stash (such as my example of starting with 21 BTC and then currently being down to 20.5 BTC after a bit over a year of following some kind of conservative withdrawal variation (i.e. around 4% or less) of this kind of sustainable withdrawal system).

This might just be one of my great lessons of 2024 as the DCA method was for 2023. In other words, I learnt and started using the DCA method 2023, and in 2024, I'm also learning about something that looks like reversed DCA according to @Dkbit98.

I will take time to explore the website to fully grasp what it's all about and also make my input or ask questions, if any. I appreciate the effort you all are making in order to make us enjoy being part of the revolution called Bitcoin.

Of course, I largely already attempted to respond to Dkbit98 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5479482.msg63431888#msg63431888) in order to suggest why I did not consider this to be reverse DCA and I am not even sure if I like the term reverse DCA - except maybe if such term would be used to describe an even more aggressive style of withdrawal.. such as greater than 30%. .even though 30% is likely not going to be very sustainable either.. yet something like reverse DCA is likely even more aggressive than anything close to being considered as sustainable withdrawal... so the idea of sustainable withdraw would be that the withdrawals could be carried out perpetually, and there is no real dipping into the principle.. so if there ends up being a need to dip into the principle, then that is a different story... which maybe would be considered as reverse DCA.


Look forward to your consideration of the matter, and surely it may well not be as relevant until you get closer to considering that you have reached your BTC accumulation targets, but surely if you might be getting close to reaching your accumulation targets or if you might want to set some bitcoin aside into a separate fund that has authorization to spend up to certain amounts, this tool may well be useful.

At a certain point, the investor's bitcoin supply will be equal to zero, right?

I didn't have time to read the other answers, I apologize for that, and I have one more question: is there any possibility that the strategy indicators inform that it is a good time to deposit more bitcoins so that the withdrawal is always sustainable?

From what I understand of the strategy, it is made to possibly make a profit and definitively close the positions, is that it?

But if I wanted to use it again, this is my question. I don't know if I expressed myself correctly.

JayJuanGee can made better answers, but i will try to answer some questions.



It depends on which Annual Withdrawal rate you choose. If you go below 6%  (conservative), ideally, even when you are very old and about to die you would still have some BTC. This is a sustainable withdrawal strategy.


I think that when you are not allowed to withdrawal (when the price is below the 200WMA), it is a good time to buy.

There will be a second tool which will do something like this. But I am still learning about it and we will release in a few weeks/months.

I think that is an error in the presumptions that a lot of guys seem to be making, which I am trying to suggest that if any of us attempts to have a sustainable withdrawal, then the rate of our withdrawal should be equal to or less than the appreciation of the asset (in this case BTC). 

So for example if you withdraw 4% per year, you can do that forever so long as the bitcoin is appreciating in value at least 4% per year relative to what you are measuring it in, whether that is dollars, other fiat, gold, hookers, lambo, blow, housing, yachts, food, or whatever is the thing you are measuring it in. 

Even though in traditional assets, a withdrawal rate of 4% would consider to be sustainable, but it also ONLY works if the various investments are at least performing 4% or more on average (even if there are likely to be some poor performing years along the way, but overall if it is mostly averaging more than 4% performance, then you should be able to withdraw forever). 

I am also asserting that currently in bitcoin 6% to 10% has historically been sustainable, and has decently good chances of continuing to be sustainable in the near future based on bitcoin's historical performance and including a conception of its future performance - including that out of bitcoin's last 13 years, it's worst performance (in terms of the movement of the 200 week moving average) was in the past 18 months (between May 2022 and November 2023), which was 20% per year during that time (you can see the actual numbers per 6 month basis in my fuck you status chart (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719591#msg58719591)).

So surely past performance does not guarantee future results; however, at the same time I am arguing the usage of the 200-week moving average to value your BTC stash since it is mostly a bottom and subjected to less volatility than trying to figure out what the fuck is going on with BTC spot price.. even while at the same time, BTC spot price is going to pull upon what the 200-week moving average does, in terms of the degree that it goes up and if it ever starts to go down rather than up, which so far it has not, especially over a 6 month period, which as you see from my fuck you status chart it's worst upward slope is slightly below 10% on any 6 month basis, which were three in a row in the last 18 months.


I had been giving some thought to that, and of course, if you end up withdrawing many months in advance based on the strategy (for example if you ended up withdrawing 59 months in advance because BTC spot price were to go more than 14x higher than the 200-WMA, which would have been the case if you had used the tool on December 16, 2017), you could use some of that withdrawn in advance amounts in order to buy back some BTC, which would increase your budget for future months.

Whether it is necessary or not to do such a buying back of the BTC would surely be a discretionary matter based on all your personal particulars, including why such tool is being used and whether the use of such tool is for all of your BTC stash or maybe for sub-component or maybe even for some separate entity that you set up with a certain budget level.. which is probably why i am likely to continue to come back to the idea of starting out with 21 coins in late 2022 as my running hypothetical that I will likely continue to add hypothetical withdrawal amounts in order to keep it as a kind of running example. 

And by the way, if someone were to withdraw 59 months in advance or even 23 months in advance, that is a hell of a long time to not use the tool, and there surely could come a BTC price dip during that time that causes the person to buy back BTC at such a rate so that he would be able to get credit back for the "in-advance months" that he sold and then once he buys back the BTC then to go back to continuing to use the tool on a monthly basis based on the new BTC reference balance, with presumptively a higher budget based on his having had added more BTC to it... it is difficult to imagine any kind of selling 59 months in advance of BTC at 14x above the 200 week moving average or even selling 23 months in advance at 400% to 650% above the 200-week moving average and then not ending up having some kind of BTC price correction in 59 months or even 23 months respectively that might not justify buying back some of those advanced sold months.     


You are using trading language, and this is not a trading tool.  The main intent is not to use it as a trading vehicle but just to continuously withdraw on a monthly basis in order to live off of it, either in a retirement kind of a situation, a passive income situation, or just some way that a business might choose to budget itself from having such BTC holdings.  Both the ability to sell advance months when the BTC price is at least 33% above the 200-week moving average, and the restrictions on the sell amounts during periods in which the BTC price price is 25% or more below the 200-week moving average does cause the tool to help to guide rates of withdrawal based on how close the BTC price is to the 200-week moving average but at the same time giving some kind of guidance regarding how much to engage in such restriction of withdrawal amounts or advanced withdrawal based on decently good BTC price performance.

Of course, technically if someone bought bitcoin, whenever they sell they are closing the position, presumptively at a profit if they have held for long enough, yet if we are dealing with a long term investment and even slow rates of withdrawal, we are generally not using those kind of trading terms, so that is partly the reason that I continue to describe a withdrawal practice.. yet in the end, you can use the tool however, you like, even if it was not very much the intended purpose...and even when dkbit98 had earlier described the tool as a way to reverse DCA, I battled against that way of describing the tool, too.. even though maybe if we were to go into the higher levels of withdrawal, such as 30% to 100% (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5479482.msg63431888#msg63431888) (which the tool does not currently support such a withdrawal rate range - even though I am not completely opposed to it), we might label that as reverse DCA (or more expedited liquidation) or some other term to clarify that the tool is being used in a way that is outside the original conceptualization of the tool.


I think that I mostly understand what your various points and what you are asking, yet if you want to respond further, then no problem.

I think that the main problem with communication is that most members here are still in the accumulation phase. (in WO, things may be different and there are more people which already reached their btc holdings goal)

most users when look at this tool think about how to use it to make their BTC holdings grow.

However, this is a tool to other phase of your investment life, the withdrawal phase (i.e. when you are already retired, not accumulating anymore).

These are all good points, including that historically we have not had very many lasting periods in which the BTC spot price had been below the 200-week moving average, especially as it had spent a lot of time at or below the 200-WMA between about June 2022 and October 2023, so I am not even sure if we could expect those kinds of periods to come in the future or even to last very long, but surely anything is possible, including that it is possible that some day the 200-week moving average might have some negative periods.  I personally don't consider it to be too likely but I surely would not write off such possibilities...

So in that regard, if based on the tool's guidance, you had sold quite a few months of your authorized BTC withdrawal amounts in advance when the BTC spot prices were anywhere between 400% to 1,400% higher than the 200-week moving average (which would be potentially selling 23-59 months in advance), then it seems that if the BTC prices start to even get close to having way lower premiums, then you could use some of those advance sold months to buy back, and you would not even need to wait for it to go down to the 200-week moving average or even within 100% of it, especially because you had already sold at fairly high prices.. and even in the end some guys do get nervous about buying and selling and devolving into trading kinds of practices, even if you are seeming to trade the big price swings with limitations on your budget, you still would be ahead of the price if you are selling within the tool on the way up, including advance months of selling and you are finding yourself with a lot of extra cash, and discretion whether or not to buy back, because you also would be locked out from selling any more months, if you had already sold months in advance, unless were to use that money to buy back months that you sold in advance.. and I am not even proclaiming exactly how to do these kinds of things because the tool does not completely help you to figure out those kinds of discretionary and balancing matters.. even if you might be trying to mostly follow the parameters of the tool's guidances... ultimately you are completely responsible for your own decisions regarding the extent to which to employ the tool and how to do it.

which reminds me @bitmover,

1) maybe we should make some kind of further and more bolded disclaimer on the site, to help to make it clear that:

"Anyone using this tool in anyway, whether following its suggestions or otherwise is complete responsible for his own financial decisions, and this tool or any of the representations associated with it on this page or on any of our communication about the tool is not financial advice since each person is responsible for his own decisions whether following the tool to the tee or deviating from it in various ways or otherwise overly-relying on the tool, don't come crying to me or to bitmover if you end up losing money.... or failing to realize your full BTC potential or otherwise, since you are responsible for your own actions, inactions or even due diligence in regards to whether or not to invest into bitcoin, or how to cash out of bitcoin or whether or how to employ any tools like this one or any other tool that we provide in our various linked sources or discussions."

2) there may need to be another place on the page, maybe near the title that says "powered by bitmover" or some other variation of that.


It is true that if you are in your early accumulation phase or even deep into your accumulation phase, but not quite at a point to be liquidating, then you probably should not be using the tool, because it is not really good for growth of your holdings. 

Even though you are correct that there are a lot of members, and probably an overwhelming majority of members who are new to bitcoin, so they may well need to spend 4-10 years or longer merely accumulating BTC before they might either reach a maintenance stage or even a kind of liquidation stage, and the tool is better for maintenance and/or liquidation.. but if it is sustainable liquidation, then it would be kind of between maintenance and liquidation,  yet it is always going to be the case that there are newbies coming to bitcoin, and surely I don't agree with either trading and/or selling in order to accumulate more BTC, even though some folks will surely be engaged in those kinds of practices and maybe even relying on this tool in order to try to trade or try to increase their BTC stash... and I think that we already point that out on the page, and maybe we can make that more clear, even though we do already say that.. but guys will frequently want to figure out ways to increase their BTC stash, and maybe get lured into the wrong kinds of practices or tools such as using something like this tool, which is not meant for such purposes. 

Perhaps they could create a version of the tool that allows the user to enter their future goal and their withdrawal plans.

Imagine, I want to have 1BTC in 10 years, and then start making sustainable withdrawals. The tool would create a monthly purchasing plan to achieve this goal. And then I designed a sustainable withdrawal plan.
Or, instead of saying how much bitcoin I want to have in 10 years, I can indicate that I want to invest $100/month for 10 years, and then see the sustainable withdrawal plan.

Logically, this has to be another type of tool, and another type of strategy, because we are talking about future values and we never know what the future will be like.


@bitmover, another suggestion, maybe for the future. The possibility for the person to save the forecast, and whenever they return to the website they can retrieve the forecasts and adjust their planning. Instead of creating accounts, you can download a file, and then just upload it and the data will be available again.

I am pretty sure that I have created various BTC accumulation tools like that for myself that involve various ways to accumulate BTC that includes expectations of worse case scenarios, medium case scenarios and best case scenarios, and there are so many variables in terms of how much cash a person is able to put in and how the BTC price does, and just as a framework, we can consider that if someone invests 10% of his income over 10 years, then it will take that amount of time for him to reach 1 year's income invested, and we almost have to assume away changes in pay and also how much his investment portfolio might appreciate in comparison to changes in the cost of living, and so if someone might be able to be 3x more aggressive than he may well get close to having one year's income and/or expenses covered in 1/3 the time, maybe 3.3 years or less, and if someone is able to live off of ONLY 70% of his income, then he does not even need a whole years income as the measuring point for how much it costs for him to live each year, but at the same time, there could be desires to delay gratification mainly in order to increase the standard of living at a later date, whether that is realistic or not might be another story, but it does sound like a new tool, even if the tools could be related as you mentioned, since once you reach your goals, then you would be in a better place to transition from accumulation stage to maintenance stage to liquidation stage, but then there still could be a bit of a quite period between still accumulating bitcoin and then later going into a stage in which the BTC accumulator becomes comfortable to start to sell some coins.

By the way, also with your 1 BTC in 10 years, if you think about it, there is likely a need to invest around $200 per week just to get to 1 BTC in 10 years, and of course, that is based on various assumptions, so if you invest $100 per week into bitcoin for a year, then you have invested $5,200 over a year and that would be $52k over 10 years, and so that is part of the reason that I am suggesting that $200 per week would be more likely to get a newbie investor to 1 BTC in 10 years rather than $100 per week not having good chances of making it to 1 BTC in 10 years... of course, there can be built in assumptions regarding discretionary/disposable income and there can be variations in regards to expenses or increases in cashflow but guys can surely estimate all of those factors to come at some results that might be conservative scenarios, medium case scenarios and better case scenarios.  So yeah if you already have a head-start on your BTC accumulation quantity, then that would be something different from trying to project how many BTC that you would like to accumulate from here on out, and surely if you already have a stash, there are ways that the BTC stash might be able to be accounted, but there are also some assumptions of an ability to hang onto it if you already have it.. which may also be a pretty BIG assumption.. but could be factored into a tool that attempts to figure out how many BTC you might be able to accumulate within certain timeframes into the future.

Also, look at my entry-level fuck you status chart (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719591#msg58719591).  I had a couple of earlier versions that required less time to pass in order that 1 BTC would constitute entry-level fuck you status, but this latest chart version errors on the side of more conservative and in 10 years you need more than 7 BTC to reach entry level fuck you status and it takes until 2049 that 1 BTC would constitute entry-level fuck you status..  Of course that entry-level fuck you status chart presumes western standards, and surely there are folks who would be able to get by off of 1/4 or even less and consider themselves at entry level fuck you status.. so a $2 million would allow for $6,667 per month and $500k would allow for $1,667 per month which would be more than acceptable for some folks as a quasi-passive income.

perfect! incredible explanation with surgical precision, now I really understood the whole point of this strategy and things cleared up my mind. Really excellent.



Indeed, I, like many here, are living in this phase of accumulation and attempts to increase capital, but we will inevitably reach a point where we can make profits and exit this phase and change our strategy.

Every good investor has to think about all the points and all possible variables, it's a life strategy, everything has to be calculated.

I really liked this tool and I will study it.

I know this is a sustainable withdrawal strategy, but it would be interresting to see if you can also add a DCA comparison graph, to see what would have happened, if people used that money to buy BTC and not spend it.

Even a comparison that are based on the same strategy, but done through a Bank deposit and based on historic interest rates.

I believe people have to spend bitcoin, to stimulate bitcoin  adoption and also supporting the merchants that accept bitcoins, so thank you for providing a controlled method to do this.

Hoarding is a natural reaction, when you deal with something that beats inflation... but people should use a strategy like this to spend bitcoins, without having the fear and the regret that comes with that.  ;)

This would be a completely different tool.

Maybe using 200WMA to buy more or less would be interesting. Not a passive DCA, but a more active strategy of DCA using this 200WMA formula. Could be interesting.

I am thinking that your mindset is in the wrong place Kakmakr, because the overall purpose of this kind of tool is to figure out ways to draw an income off of your BTC, so there is a kind of presumption that your BTC holdings has reached a high enough state that you feel that you have enough and/or you need to generate income (or a cash stream) off of your bitcoin, but at the same time you are doing it in such a way that the dollar value largely would continue to justify the rate at which you are withdrawing.

And, by the way, what would be the purpose of withdrawing and the buying back except to sell with one hand and buy with the other, and sure, you are not framing your question like that because you are potentially presuming that if the BTC price goes down after the withdrawals then the person would be better off to buy back.. but still you would ONLY be thinking like that if you are not really ready to sell your BTC in the first place, or you have such a trading mindset that you cannot get over the idea of trading....so if you have a presumption that the market is moving down as you are selling then such a strategy would likely work well in terms of selling and then DCA'ing back, but we already know that overall the BTC price trends up and the 200-week moving average trends up, so this tool is also premised on the same kind of idea that the BTC price overall trends up, even though in the short term there can be extensive down or sideways periods.

Of course, since the tool itself is calculating lower rates of withdrawal for when the BTC price is no more than 25% above the 200-WMA and also since it shows the ability to advance withdraw once the BTC price gets more than 33% above the 200-WMA, therefore  you still could end up using the tool in order to create your own strategies around both withdrawal rates and for buying back.

Actually your suggestion to DCA with the money used for the withdrawal hardly makes any sense for the monthly withdrawal (except if you presume the BTC price is trending downward), but there could be some value to employ a kind of DCA (or buying back) for coins that are withdrawn for months in advance, yet there would still need to be some strategizing around that, and such strategies would likely have a whole hell of a lot of variability.  

So for example if the BTC spot price goes into the range of being 400% to 650% higher than the 200-WMA, then the tool authorizes you to withdraw 23 months in advance, and surely there could be decisions (and even uses of the tool) to buy back (and even DCA buy back) if the BTC price drops into some lower range.  I am not really sure how much of a drop would be necessary or preferred, but it could be possible that we could add some kind of tool that would suggest buying back some of the advance months sold if the BTC price drops into one of the lower ranges... perhaps even if the BTC price were to drop more than one range below then months (or fractions of a month) could be bought back on a weekly basis (even using DCA techniques.. even though it probably would not be fair to exactly call it DCA because it is buying on dip and could be DCA combined since there could be a time element in there too.), but it still would end up having quite a few discretionary matters built in.. even though I would not be opposed to adding that kind of a extra component to the tool if there were a way to allow it to not distract from the overall presentation.. It would likely end up being a section that involves using advanced months to be bought back.

I try to accomplish this in my other selling on the way up rake tool (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5475347.msg63213921#msg63213921) in which it allows for the customized selling of BTC at certain price points and then it allows for a speculation of buying back at certain price dips (that the user can customize both the selling points and the buying back points which may or may not end up getting hit, so therefore the tool also allows for an assignment of probability towards the buy back points getting hit).


I am not sure what you are getting at with these kinds of comparisons.. because overall there would not be any advantage to sell and buy back unless BTC is in an overall downtrend. but then the reason to buy back would be presuming that the price is ultimately going to go up.. .which is the foundation of DCA buying....and the foundation of this tool is similar in the sense that you presume that the BTC price is going to continue to go up, so maybe there are some hesitancies to sell any BTC, so if you want to sell within a sustainable rate, you can still profit from the overall presumption that the BTC prices are going up (even though they might not in the short term and also that it is not guaranteed that they will continue to go up, even though the tool is still built upon that presumption).


This tool goes more into the idea that the quantity of BTC that could be spent within any given month, yet it does not go into the questions of how such BTC would be spent - because we could imagine scenarios in which we are able to spend BTC at various locations, but if we are largely just converting BTC to cash, then that seems to be the more expedited way to accomplish what the tool suggests, in the event that there are not avenues to spend the BTC during the month, and surely there likely could be a preference to be able to spend the BTC on goods and services throughout the month whether that is rent, food, transportation, hookers, lambos, yachts, planes, and blow and/or other recreational/consumption goods or maybe it could be for investments into properties, equities, bonds, commodities... .. but there is also a presumption of converting all within the month, and the advance withdrawals would more likely be spent to convert to cash rather than consumption goods.. because as in the earlier example, of a BTC price that is 400% to 650% higher than the 200-WMA, there may well be some difficulties finding 23 months worth of items to consume, and it may well not make any sense, but if you spend 23 months in advance, then you are not allowed to cash out any more BTC from the fund until 1) the 23 months pass, 2) some months are bought back or 3) the BTC price rises into a higher category that triggers the allowance to withdraw additional months in advance.  So to me it seems that the most logical place for 23 months in advance would be to go to cash or cash equivalents or maybe something else that is somewhat liquid.. including the consideration that if the BTC price drops stupendously if the value is in cash, then several of those advance months could be bought back and allow for the increase of the BTC stash and the authorization to continue to withdraw using the tool, especially if all of the sold months are bought back.


You frame hoarding as a negative, but if you are saving something like bitcoin or the soundest of all monies, then I would not label that behavior as negative.. The spending of least value of assets and/or currencies fits within the concepts of Gresham's law, which means that you should not be spending your most valuable of assets/currencies until you have run out of others to spend... which also might be a reason to use this kind of tool in such a way that sets your sustainable withdrawal percentage at a lower rate rather than a higher rate, especially if you are considering ways to allow your BTC to continue to grow in value.  Accordingly, I would think that a presumption of this tool is also that bitcoin is the best of monies, so you may well not even want to withdraw any of your BTC if you have other sources of income, but once your stash is a large enough size, then you can use the tool and continue to mostly hold onto your BTC. while at the same time choosing your own personal level of cashing out.


There still may well be questions regarding at what quantity of BTC might someone begin to use this kind of tool, and surely it could be started with any quantity of BTC, but surely it makes more sense to assure that you are mostly no longer in the BTC accumulation stages - even though there are ways to also use the tool to accumulate more BTC if you sell months in advance and then buy back those months at lower levels, presuming that BTC spot prices continue to fluctuate and go through these various levels in which they are way higher than the 200-WMA which triggers the selling of more months in advance or the way lower prices that are closer (or even below the 200-WMA) which triggers lower levels of BTC selling (withdrawal) but also could trigger some buying back of BTC as seems to be the question that you started out your post.


Yeah it is either a very different tool or it is something that is very difficult to add to this tool without causing a lot of confusion regarding the more central purposes and presumptions of this particular too.


I think that several people do look at this tool and they consider various ways that they can use it to trade and/or to use the tool to their advantage in buying and/or selling, and surely one of the advantages of highlighting how close or far the BTC spot price is from the 200-WMA would allow the tool to be used in that way, even though that is not the framework in which we are trying to present the information...

I am not against trying to add some additional ways of looking at the data, even though it seems that the tool is already providing a lot.. especially if someone has already gotten to a certain quantity of BTC that he would like to consider within such a budget.  And, so i can also see how someone who is in a different stage of the BTC accumulation journey, they might be trying to use the tool in another kind of way... and that is really not a problem if that is what people want to do... and if they can find some advantages in that... but many times if someone is in their earliest of BTC accumulation stages, then they likely should be accumulating no matter what the BTC price, but then the dilemma comes for those who might have accumulated decent amounts of BTC, but they still do not have enough to be cashing out, so they could end up using the tool in ways to complement their BTC accumulation journey.. yet anything that devolves into trading is going to retain a certain amount of risk, and so the tool could also help with those kind of risk mitigation matters too.

A suggestion that I now remember.

Since in some countries you have to pay taxes on crypto income, it could be useful in the tool to have a field for the user to indicate the % of taxes.
It would be a free field, where each person would place what was most convenient for them.

This could be a good way to evaluate performance, taking into account the taxes you have to pay.

Personally, I consider that specific kind of a tax field to contain way too many variables, even if we might concede that there are a lot of jurisdictional variations when it comes to tax treatment, there are also a lot of differences in regards to how any person might be treating his taxes including his ways to calculate his cost basis that could also vary based on tranches of coins that were being planned to be cashed out and how they are cashed out...there are also classified ways of spending coins that may have tax consequences in some kinds of spending, but might have exemptions in other circumstances.  Think about the context of gifting, in which in the USA, up to $17k per year per recipient could be exempted from taxes based on gifting (https://www.forbes.com/sites/christinefletcher/2023/02/01/8-tips-for-tax-free-gifting-in-2023/?sh=26b08334a99f), and there are other kinds of exemptions or reduction of tax consequences.

Sure there could be a general field rather than a tax specific field, the field would account for estimated expenses and it would reduce the payout amount in order to attempt to measure net pay as compared to gross pay, yet from my current thinking that kind of extra field seems to have tendencies to overly complicate the tool.  What do you think bitmover?  Do you want to add an expenses field?

One of the main reasons to use this kind of a tool is to get some kind of idea regarding how much BTC to withdraw and to even show maximum withdrawal amounts based on current BTC price conditions in relation to the 200-week moving average, and surely there could be some cases in which the actual benefits of the coins is reduced due to various transaction fees, taxes or other costs that could be applied right at the time of withdrawal, yet something like taxes might be a matter of how it is categorized within reporting categories that might be somewhat ambiguous and difficult to capture even if we were to put a general expenses field in there, and even if such an "expenses" field might be helpful, I am still leaning towards thinking that such a field adds more clutter, complication and distraction to the idea than it benefits - even though it is not totally irrational to want to include the consideration of those kinds of personalization ideas.

It doesn't need to be a very specific field, something generic could be interesting. The possibility of indicating a fixed value or a percentage.

It is true that there are several possibilities, in turn the person making the withdrawal may have expenses, expenses that will be deducted from the withdrawal amount. So, having a way for the match to get an idea of this value can help in making a decision. In fact, you can even change the data, and make the indicated withdrawal times no longer exist. Or change accounts for consistent withdrawals over time.

Anyway, it could be another variable for the accounts, which I remembered could be useful.

it still would end up in the user input data so then would end up affecting the results of the output, and I would imagine the default would be zero, so the user would need to select either a percentage and/or a fixed amount.

Which kind of reminds me of what I consider to be a more important feature that is currently not present which is the user's ability to share his inputs, so that if he provides a link to someone they could optionally see his inputs...

Each of these DCA cites allow for the copying and sharing of results based on inputs.

https://dcabtc.com/

https://dcacryptocalculator.com/bitcoin

https://costavg.com/


Fair enough.


I am not sure exactly what you mean, here.  If we are in the middle of a month and working through our monthly limit, of course, the BTC price relative to the 200-WMA is changing throughout the month, so a lot of times if we are just considering that we do not go over the authorized BTC withdrawal amount for that particular month, then that amount should stay consistent as long at the BTC price is at least 25% or higher than the 200-WMA so we can keep track of our various withdrawals until we reach our monthly limit or we could just do them all on one day for the whole month.

On the other hand, if we are going to perform some kind of an withdrawal of advance months, then the number of months that we are authorized to withdraw in advance might have a short period of time that it is possible to accomplish based on if the BTC price moves into a certain range that authorizes additional months to withdraw in advance.  There could be discretion regarding how to accomplish the withdrawals and at which price point, and the user would have to keep track of how he is carrying out such record keeping and keeping himself within the parameters of the guidelines of the rules of the tool (if he were to choose to try to follow the rules of the tool..including that if I were to authorize you joker_josue to withdraw from an account that we establish within the confines of the tool, then if you want to stay compliant, you would be restricted to the amounts within the parameters of the rule...and we could plug in our 20.5 example for that... .

Bitmover and I have already been discussing some of the difficulties with the tools ability to capture the exact spot price upon hitting refresh or at any specific time of the day, and as a tentative resolution we had agreed to showing BTC's price range for any selected day (and bitmover is still working on adding that) and I am not sure if having that feature will completely resolve the issue of trying to figure out at what price on the upside a person might be triggered to withdraw additional months or perhaps on the downside at what price the withdrawal amount might enter more restrictive territories.... and perhaps some of the calculations might need to be carried out manually for someone who had gotten used to using the tool and understanding how it works in line with familiarity with the formulas that are contained to trigger changes in the monthly withdrawal limit thresholds.


Consistent withdrawal over time would be a different tool.  Admittedly as long as the BTC price is more than 25% over the 200-WMA, the monthly withdrawal amount in terms of BTC will be the same in terms of BTC amount, but surely not in terms of dollar value.  Also the further the price is above the 200-WMA, the more months in advance become authorized for withdrawal, and I think that it would be prudent to take advantage of those guidelines, especially once the BTC price starts to get into % territories (such as higher than 400% above the 200WMA) that are authorizing 23 months in advance and more...and yeah there could be some accounting difficulty in regards to doing that, but it is still recommended to follow...especially if there are preferences to cash out BTC during the higher prices rather than during lower prices... and even though the tool is giving guidelines and I am recommending to take advantage of those guidelines, each person has discretion if he does not want to follow the guidelines, unless you happen to be someone who is mandated to follow the guidelines, if we go back to the example that I give you a budget and require you to spend within the guidelines.


I am not sure what you mean here.

I think that it will make the tool more complicated and won't add any valuable information.

Each country has different taxes, expenses depend on each exchange,  bank etc. It is very personal. It could be another slider,  but I don't think it will add valuable information

Ok, just to clarify why I asked if you could possibly add those other strategies.

People always discuss possible outcomes with different scenarios or different strategies.

I discussed your strategy on one of the local "investment" WhatsApp groups and people were curious to say the least.

They wanted to see what the outcome would be, if they re-invested the yield from your strategy. (They do understand that your strategy are not an investment strategy, but they still wanted to compare the "what if" outcome)

Example 1 : What would happen, if I re-invested that yield, compared to withdrawing it and just using it for something else.

Example 2 : What would have happened, if I simply deposited it into a fixed deposit at a Bank. (Fixed interest rate, with an option to make additional deposits)

It's just fun to play around with the different strategies and I can see that you took that to the next level.  ;D ;)

Thanks for the feedback JJG. Sorry for my English. And just to clarify...



What I wanted to say is that the value placed in this field could influence the entire field. Based on your explanation, I realized that maybe not so much, due to the way the tool is built.




It was just a conclusion, saying that it was an idea I had and found it interesting. ;)

I didnt get it.

If you reinvest what you just withdrawal at the same time,  it is the same as never withdrawal.

You would have a flat line with your btc stash, instead of a decreasing btc stash. If you had 0.5btc, and never sell, you will have 0.5btc forever

https://i.stack.imgur.com/bGUX7.png

JJG has another strategy to sell and buy again using 200WMA,  which will be a next tool.


Now you will have an some exponential growth due to compound interest. There are many tools for compound interest in the web. But time is the most important variable here. You need long time.
https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/600_Fidelity_Com_English/images/migration/simple-interest-and-compound-growth.png

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/compound-interest

I think that sometimes it can take a real long time for some of the most basic of ideas to become widespread, understood and put into practice.

I think that the tool can still be considered as a BIG deal to the extent that it can help any of us to better appreciate how BTC may well have a sustainable withdrawal rate that is much higher than other assets, and I think that it remains pretty bold for me to be arguing that bitcoin may well have a sustainable withdrawal rate of 6% to 10% as long as you follow the rules of the tool.

There are a lot of people who want to start to apply the tool , but they are either not yet at a stage in their BTC accumulation that this kind of  sustainable withdrawal makes sense or they are not to point in which they can set aside a certain quantity of BTC (such as my 21 BTC example) and just start applying the sustainable withdrawal to a budget, which also is likely to be very powerful to use this tool for such a purpose.\


Even though I have been spending quite bit of time thinking about the 200-week moving average in the last 5 years or so, the foundation for our next tool (that we are still having troubles imagining how to design it in a way that is better than the google/excel spreadsheet), that one is based more on just raking profits (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5475347.msg63213921#msg63213921) on the way up and then speculating about buying back upon certain dips and assigning probabilities to the likelihood of such dips would be hit.  


Even though you can get the idea of compounding from various dollar-based interest/dividend bearing accounts, I consider it to be misleading to rely upon interest and/or dividends in order to understand the concept of compounding (even though there is nothing wrong with the chart in terms of nominal terms), but if we are thinking about the matter in real terms rather than nominal terms, we still have to consider bitcoin's value appreciation in relation to the dollar.  

So bitcoin does not have any dividend or interest, yet there is no need to put bitcoin into an account held by a third-party in order to get interest and/or dividends because historically bitcoin's dollar value has gone up greater than an overwhelming number of dollar-based investments, so the amount of bitcoin's value going up compounds upon itself without having to get interest upon it.  

Sure, there is no guarantee that bitcoin will continue to go up in value in ways that outpace the devaluation (and debasement of the dollar), but the odds seem quite high that bitcoin will continue to appreciate in value way greater than the dollar debases (even if you include interests (or even compounding interest) that you might earn on holding your value in such depreciating asset/currency like the dollar).

For example, even just looking at where bitcoin was in 2015, we can see that there have been about 9 doubling of bitcoin's value events (in terms of it's dollar value) and yeah some retracements but still we are currently still around 8 doublings since 2015 (that is ONLY a little more than 8 years).

1) $250  (2015)

2)  $500  (2015-2016)

3)  $1,000    (2016-2017)

4)  $2,000  (2017)

5)  $4,000  (2017-2020)

6)  $8,000   (2017-2020)

7)  $16,000  (2017-2022)

8 )  $32,000  (2021-2023?)

9)  $64,000  (2021-?)

10)  $128,000  (?)

Historically, those value appreciations in bitcoin have been way greater than the debasement of the dollar even if someone were to have had paid you 10% interest on the dollars that they were holding for you, it still would have had been better for you to keep your value in bitcoin even if no dividends or interest had been paid by keeping your value in bitcoin and stored by yourself in isolation.

Even if there are no guarantees of future results bitcoin is sound money and thus Bitcoin is designed to pump forever.. and maybe another way of saying it, is that bitcoin is the most pristine of assets and/or the soundest of monies.. so good luck holding your value somewhere else and expecting your money to appreciate and/or hold its value as well as if you were to keep your value in bitcoin, even if you are not getting any dividends and/or interest in nominal senses, you are getting appreciation of the asset in real terms  - again not guaranteed but pretty damned highly likely to have better value retention in bitcoin, especially if you account for the ongoing, persistent and consistent irresponsible behavior of the dollar and all other fiat-based systems.

I think bonds are not very good in developed countries.

Brazil has one of the highest interest rates in the world. Always has.
http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/

Brazil has about 11% is this website  but we can get easily 14% free of taxes with AAA corp bonds.
Long term  this is amazing and you 2x every 6 years.

This is very powerful and any portfolio 100% bonds will look like the chart above from my last post.

However,  we were a shitful country, I sent think nobody from a developed country should risk their dollars here.
I have treasuries and Corp bonds from the US as well, but much less..

Of course, you still have to consider how much you are allocating to those kinds of shitty products, even if they might perform better than bonds in the developed world, you are still likely earning your interest in a pretty shitty currency that is subject to a lot of risk in terms of its real value as opposed to its nominal value... so yeah, how much to fuck around in any investments other than bitcoin could be a long and indepth discussion that probably takes us away from how we might be thinking about the value of our own bitcoin holdings and how to deal with that.. including that this tool focuses on bitcoin, but at the same time, since it is taking advantage of changes (volatility) of the dollar and likely ongoing debasement of the dollar, we can attempt to create sustainable withdrawal practices around that.. .

In which I cannot remember if we might want to add other currencies to this tool.. do you think that there might be some value in that?  I am sure some folks might appreciate looking at their own currency rather than USD (even though surely USD remains the dominant shitty fiat out of all of the various shitty fiats).

I think it is worth to invest in such currencies only if you live there.

All my expenses are in BRL , so it is OK for me if the price USDBRL go up or down


I could add fixed value of other currencies in today's rate
 The chart of historical btc price in a hundred currencies is a bit complicated (doable,  but high development time, even to find and fix the data, since 2010)

Even if it takes a decent amount of time, if it is helpful, then might it still not be a good thing to add.. and maybe some tools might only go back to certain dates, they might not all go back to 2010?  We could potentially consider the easy currencies first and maybe if we add less common currencies, then maybe those currencies would ONLY go back as far as the date that the API allows.. but yeah, it still might get down to concerns about how much time needs to be spent and whether it is worth it?  Maybe we could talk more specifically in PMs regarding how much time is "high development time?"

Just now I had to go back and look at your currency converter,

https://bitcoindata.science/bitcoin-units-converter

and I did notice that that particular converter is ONLY dealing with current price conversions and so yeah that particular converter is not providing an option for historical conversions - yet I would imagine that there would be some sites that might do some limited kinds of historical conversions?

We will definitely appreciate this when we are being able to view our local currencies to their amount worth in USD.

From my own localized currency in fiat also, we prefer the use of USD just because its a measure of identifying the value of a currency growth over time while its dominance has nothing to do with any financial improvement upon any investment made in it, so i would rather prefer the use of bitcoin over any other form of currencies while USD is just an estimate to the value of my holdings.

Of course, bitmover and I are referring to having a unit converter within this particular tool so that all of the fiat (currently dollar value) references would be for the selected local currency, because if you merely want a contemporary conversion of your currency, you could just look at bitmover's currency converter (https://bitcoindata.science/bitcoin-units-converter.html) - and maybe in that regard, as an interim solution, maybe we just want to start by adding such unit conversion link in the thread (even though there is already a unit converter link at the top of the thread).

As to your other point regarding how much value to hold in your local currency, versus the dollar versus bitcoin, I think that it is becoming more and more widely known that there are so many folks who do hold/reference dollars rather than their local currency, even if they might not hold dollars, but then they also have a lot of preferences of holding dollars because historically it has had a tendency to appreciate (or at least hold its value better) against the local currencies.. and not as many folks realize that bitcoin is even better than the dollar because bitcoin's short-term volatility frequently clouds thinking, including that it does not even take that much of a zoom out before anyone should be able to see the magnitude of such bitcoin value holding... so yeah, then it comes down to how much of your local cash and/or dollars do you need to hold and then the rest should probably go into bitcoin.. for holding 4-10 years or longer.... which can seem like an eternity for so many folks to think in terms of holding some kind of asset/currency for 4-10 years or longer in order to have decent chances of increasing the quantity and quality of options that they have in their life a wee bit down the road. 

I discovered an api with data from 2013 basically all currencies.

https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/bitcoin/market_chart?vs_currency=brl&days=max&interval=daily&precision=2

I will take a look. I will probably add support for other local currencies using this api.

Data fromm 2010 to 2013 may be supported only for usd. I will see if I can get euro too.

About dolar reference... I track my overall portfolio in usd value. Specially for long term analysis.

I've gone through the link provided and I see it's something worth recommending for use, I will try in my own capacity as well to make this available for as many as possible from my locale to use this conversion and a big thanks and a welcome job to bitmober for bringing such idea, the site is well ok for easy use.


Recently, it has been trending on the internet whereby you see many people and experts giving some sort of financial advice on the way people save their earnings, they largely got recommendations for the use of dollar against the local currency considering the fall in the local currency value in respect to dollar, but it's more important that they will also have to realized this that they could get more better with bitcoin even than what the fiat could get them, I appreciate this efforts altogether in giving people more enlightenment towards using a sustainable means of withdrawal and currency conversion with bitcoin.

Hey!

I made the update I said.

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/03/03/ySBd5.png


Share button is still not working. But the other ones are. I will fix this share stuff soon!

Please tell me what you think JayJuanGee, if you have any suggestions.

I like it.  It is interesting, and it helps to inform some potential suggestions.  The format also looks nice.

In order to test it out, I entered in the fuck you status number of coins for June 2019, and even if we were to employ the most aggressive withdrawal rate (of 30%), our dollar value of our coins continued to grow throughout the period, which goes to show that historically using any withdrawal rate within the tool would have resulted in both conservatism in regards to withdrawal and also an ongoing growth of the dollar value of the BTC, even if the BTC stash may have had ended up shrinking stupendously.

The fact that even the most maximum of withdrawal rates had not historically ended up with depletion of the BTC stash, it may well be better if the withdrawal percentage would increase to higher rates, maybe even all the way up to 100%, and for those higher rates we might want to call them intentional depletion rates, even though it could be possible that they still do not end up depleting the BTC stash in terms of ongoing increase in value.. depending on future BTC price movements and also depending on how much the 200-WMA continues to go up.  On the other hand, I do expect that BTC is going to experience a lot lower future BTC price (and 200-WMA) appreciation values (you can see that I have already accounted for much lower values in my Entry-level fuck you status chart (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719591#msg58719591) - even though currently, it is looking too conservative), because there are most likely ceilings in BTC's addressable market.

Since past results do not translate into future results, I remain comfortable to keep with the seemingly conservative recommendations of the tool in regards to how the withdrawal rates are labeled... even though it seems that any withdrawal rate under 10% may well likely end up being considered ways to continue to grow your BTC investment holdings (in terms of dollar value of your holdings) in spite of engaging in ongoing withdrawal within the bounds of the tool.    

Maybe another punchline could be that historically in bitcoin, as long as we are using the 200-WMA as our BTC valuation, there may be no need to reach full fuck you status in order to pull the fuck you lever, and we might well be able to start to use BTC portfolio stash amounts far less than expected in order to get started with our living a fuck you status lifestyle.. but we still need to reach a certain number of BTC in order to make it practical to get started with such withdrawals, since it is likely that dollar debasement is going to continue and we are going to want to continue to ensure that we have a sufficient cushion - which is supposed to be part of the justification of the tool in terms of not depleting the principle of our BTC stash and being able to live off of BTC's ongoing price appreciation, without over doing it..  

Once we get to a status of being able to withdraw from our BTC stash, it should not matter in the negative that we end up having some extra cushion in the dollar value of our BTC holdings.  Of course, I am only referring to strict withdrawal rather than the extra steps that would be required for any guys who might be engaging in advance withdrawals that presume selling the BTC and potentially buying back months if the BTC spot price drops at least a couple of levels below the range in which they had ended up employing the advance withdrawals.

Suggestions:

For some reason I am a little discombobulated by the lack of separation in regards to the entrance of the current stash size versus the historically projected stack size.  So for example, when I enter 540 BTC which would have had been the fuck you status level for June 1, 2019, and if I indicate an annual withdrawal rate of 30%, the tool shows that currently, I still would have 174 BTC (which is more than 3x current fuck you status - see my entry-level fuck you status chart (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719591#msg58719591)), and in such a scenario I would have had withdrawn $11.5 million over the past nearly 5 years.  Of course, right now if I only have 174 BTC remaining, then that would be my current amount in which I would consider how much do I want to (or that I am authorizing myself to) withdraw and I choose if I want to stick with the same rate of withdrawal or to employ a different rate.. of course in this case, I cannot go any higher since the tool maxes out at 30%.

It's almost like I would prefer to have the current period for projecting forward and the simulated past period to have their own input and output areas, even though that would lead to a certain level of redundancy - and maybe it would have to be on a separate page if the two concepts (or two calculators might potentially interfere with each other?).  It seems to me that the simulator portion of the tool is not engaging in withdrawals of months in advance or buying back months, so the simulation does not need to have the advance withdrawal portion of the tool when it is calculating how the numbers would have had played out historically.  

In other words, for the current portion, I know what is my current BTC stash size (which I might actually have that number of BTC or I might be imagining an amount of BTC that I want to put into the tool or I might want to use of fraction of the amount of BTC that I already have and put that amount of BTC into the tool).

For historical portion (and/or the simulation), if I was using the tool and engaging in historical withdrawal, if I want to end up with the same amount of BTC that I have now, then by definition, I would have had to have started with more BTC than now in order to still have the number of BTC that I have right now.  

It is not practical for me to apply my present stash to past withdrawals, even though sure I might want to see what the historical numbers look like for my present stash size, yet at the same time, if I hypothesize using my present BTC stash size for past withdrawals I know that with the use of this tool, I currently would not have as many BTC as I have right now, which seems to justify having redundant input areas and redundant output areas for the current projection forward and for the projection of past performance (or the simulation) based on how many BTC I might have had in the past or how many BTC I speculate myself to have had in the past.  

I am interested to hear what other guys have to say.  Does anyone understand it? or find it useful for anything in the ball park for what we might be trying to achieve here?  I know that there were a few guys who mentioned their desires to see how the tool would perform historically, so here is the chance for some of those guys to chime in.  Do "we" (royal that is) need to name any names or to ask directly to certain members in regards to the guys who said that they wanted some kind of historical rendition of the tool?

I wish that one day I will get to be paid in this platform I have acquired alot of knowledge and has been very well fascinated with everything going in on this group it has been a system of confidence and continueoues learning which will impact alot of by deminshing mayopic reasonings to set you for the future marketing strategy.....

I will be delighted for my BTC address to be among the one that will be posting in here as one of the ones in payment roll...

It will be a thing of joy to be participating in the forum as a full member which I know they will be happening soon have a nice day gallant gentle men and women

@bitmover

It just hit me, that your tool does not take into account any taxes that have to be paid on each withdrawal.

So the amount of cash you will effectively have will be lower than the monthly amount that is withdrawn.

Why don't you make an input field for tax percentage, which is then factored into the algorithm? 0% would mean there is no tax and should probably be the default.

This could be interesting. But I must think about how to implement it.

I don't how it works in other countries, but we usually pay 15% tax over the gains here.

So, I would also need to add an average price and the tax percent, to calculate it correctly. What do you think JayJuanGee?



For now, I added just the month withdrawal, without any advanced. This can be added, however we must think about how to do it. For example, does the advanced withdrawal will work like a a super aggressive withdrawal? For example, can I just multiply the current month x 5, if that is the case, for example? Or do I have to compensate it later? And if i need to compensate later, when? This might be very subjective for this tool.

About future withdrawals, I would need to fix a withdrawal percentage every month, because we cannot predict the price.

I thought that we discussed this previously and largely rejected it because there are so many variabilities in both tax treatments, but also how tax treatments could be offset by the individual too (including if they might have some of their funds in tax privileged accounts).  I would not be opposed to any kind of an additional general slider that might incorporate anticipated extra "fees or taxes" that a person could self-select a percentage expectation.


I would not want to add any presumed extra advanced monthly withdrawal to the simulator - because the extra monthly withdrawal is complicated and very discretionary.  I largely mentioned the advance monthly withdrawal not being in the simulator because I anticipated that it would not have been in there and should not have had been in there.  The tool is already complicated enough, just the idea of it, since so many folks gravitate towards calculating their strategies towards spot price, and this tool is attempting to ground calculations based on the 200-WMA, even though in the real world, the price that we get for making sales is going to be spot price at the time of any of our sales.

Sure, you could put something like monthly withdrawals into the simulator for the middle of the range as an automatic, but then once it gets executed then the clock would start to run in regards to if the middle of the next range is hit in order to calculate potential additional months of withdrawal, and so if the BTC price continues to move up an then it hits the middle of the next range, then further advance months could be withdrawn automatically but how much could be withdrawn may well depend upon how much time has passed between the earlier withdrawal and the next withdrawal, but then if the price moves down a couple of levels, then some of the months could be bought back (perhaps starting at the middle of the range of at least 2 levels down, but we would have to invent a formula for that (or an input fields that say how many levels down is going to be the buy back and then what percentage will be bought back at each level and then how much time passed between the sale and the buying back).  It is way too complicated and discretionary and without any formulas that would likely be needed to be customizable.

I think that it almost defeats the whole purpose of the tool to be getting too caught up and distracted into seemingly trading dynamics rather than the intended sustainable withdrawal ideas that would not revolve so much around the potential trading aspects of the advance withdrawal ideas.  

The reason that I put advance withdrawal within the framework in the first place is to have some discretionary options in place to be able to get some guidelines regarding the extent to which the BTC price as compared to the 200-WMA is at any point in time is becoming frothy and/or overly-frothy, and there are surely degrees of frothiness in the BTC price, so the more frothiness the greater the ability to withdraw more months in advance, yet it may not even make sense to withdraw months in advance at certain levels of BTC's price performance.

For example, right now when we are going through the middle of noman's land (from $55k to $82k-ish), and it might not make sense to be withdrawing month's in advance in places like this, even though the tool allows for it.. and a person might even get nervous about withdrawing 23, 35, 47 or 59 months in advance for some of the higher ends (the 200-400% range or the 400-650% range or the 650 to 900% range or the 900% to 1,400% range or the 1,400% range), even though the tool allows those specific levels of advance withdrawals at each of those levels.

The 2021 price run ONLY got into the lower end of the 400-650% range, and only during the early peak.  The second 2021 peak, even though the BTC spot price ended up higher, it was only in the lower end of the 200-400% range.  The 2013 and the 2017 price runs surely ran into the supra 1,400% range, the highest for the tool, which I am not sure if those kind of discrepancies are going to to happen again (especially the level of the one in 2013 in which BTC spot price reached more than 2,600% higher than the 200WMA), yet we later saw that they would have been good times to sell extra to make it through the subsequent bear market (but we did not know that at the time or in advance).

So maybe I should be bothered by the tool even recommending the consideration of advance withdraw, which causes me to consider that maybe I should attempt to explain within the tool a bit better what I am wanting to say about my recommendation to consider and to employ advance withdrawal - which I probably don't even know what I mean, exactly.. . because I am probably trying to say that it should be seriously considered to use the advance withdrawal.. but at the same time to have some kind of idea within your own thinking about when you might employ such idea, and in the mean time a place to put the withdrawn money and realize that it could later be used to live off the money if the BTC price drops or to be used to buy back months in order to go back to using using the tool for sustainable monthly withdrawals.. because if you sell months in advance then you cannot sell further months if the price drops below that range until the months have passed.. and all of this would be self-directed and potentially complicated to keep track of.


If trying to employ for the simulator, we would have to figure out formulas for when the withdrawals would be exercised that would thereby account for the date that it was executed, and if further advance withdrawals are authorized and thereby executed by the tool because the BTC price reached the next authorization threshold, then it would need to account for how much time passed since the previous advance withdrawal execution in order to calculate the balance of how many months would be remaining for the next advance withdrawal.


The buying back could be some kind of formula like is used in my raking tool (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5475347.msg63213921#msg63213921), but it would also have to consider passage of time in terms of how many months could still be bought back.  We would also have to consider that when the BTC price drops that the sold months could be bought back at lower amounts, so there likely would be some discretion in terms of calculating if a month is fully bought back.


We have not gotten into discussion of adapting these tools for future withdrawals, which like you said would have to have a prediction element.  My entry-level fuck you status chart (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719591#msg58719591) has a prediction element that seems to be changing all the time, but it attempts to predict the 200-WMA, in a 4-year cycle fashion that may or may not end up playing out, and while my fuck you status chart does not try to predict BTC spot price, a range of possible BTC spot prices could be implied from the attempts to predict the 200-WMA.. which again is all amorphous.

I think with any kinds of sustainable withdrawal tool, there is are presumptions about the growth likelihood of the underlying assets, and in the traditional financial world, 4% is considered to be sustainable withdrawal based on expectations that the underlying assets in the investment portfolio will perform at least 4% on average... So in bitcoin, we likely can presume higher than 4%, more like 6-10% seems more than reasonable and even conservative, since I backed tested the tool and even 30% seems to work for BTC, even though I would not want to rely on 30% continuing to be sustainable.. so I personally believe it remains more than conservative enough to continue to stay with 6% to 10% as our defined "moderate" sustainable withdrawal rate.

By the way, I consider my raking tool (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5475347.msg63213921#msg63213921) to be way more practical (and straight-forward) for the basic ideas of managing your BTC holdings since there are not as many variables to play with, especially if you are not sure if you have enough BTC yet... so using this sustainable withdrawal tool way too prematurely (before you have enough BTC or able to establish using it with a certain quantity of your BTC), then you may well end up with way less BTC than you should have because you may well end up selling way too many BTC too soon, rather than erroring on the side of HODLing - even though the sustainable withdrawal tool gives a lot of guidelines for establishing a potential monthly budget with a certain quantity of BTC as the base... and yeah it does not hurt to provide guys more and more tools, even if they might end up using them differently from their original design intentions.  

I don't think it's that hard. I mean now, a person can calculate the tax deductible by themselves and then subtract it from the periodic withdrawal amount, but that is not very convenient to do by hand, especially for those of us lurking here who can't math :)

Basically, there is only capital gains tax to worry about, so one percentage, and it's going to be different per country. So the tax value will be "blended" into the annual withdraw rate percentage to bring it up slightly. We just need to figure out by how much.

Hey JayJuanGee and everyone.

The share button is now working.

You can now share your work with anyone using a shareable URL, similar to the giveaway manager

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/03/12/yO1ka.png

You can test here:
https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy?U2FsdGVkX19F2rGk8qQjC+Lmnxh93CWBbEELB6jW90ftg5WQCSY/ML0wm55EcLlJ

It's a good idea to create a sharing link.
It would be interesting to see what kind of strategies other users use. They can use 1BTC as the input amount. The idea is just to see the strategy.

But bitmoving your share link doesn't work. It gives error 500. Either way, I tested and created a link, and everything worked.

Ops, thanks for noticing.
There was a typo. Now fixed.

I just did it, and it worked for me.  Thanks.  It seems to save the percentage withdrawal, portfolio size and the date and it seems to always check the box "use this date", whether the "use this date" box was checked in the original data or not.  I don't find that to be problematic, and I consider the share link to be able to make some kind of a point about data as of a specific date and then to share that... so we are adding utility through these kinds of features.

I do still contend for the reasons that I had outlined earlier that there should be a separate input area for the back-testing data (referred to as simulation) versus the current data (in the top).

Yet even with the shared data as of today, the share button does allow us to describe some sustainable withdrawal situation and then to proclaim that the tool shows that even with the most aggressive withdrawal of 30% starting from June 2019 would have had retained it's dollar value.

So again, see my example (https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy?U2FsdGVkX19l+UffuZr/eokXmha3wLfiy9L93F0KwRhbLLIskkYzIdop4u81fMRyrvfNRCvgVW2Tvp3VbSvvCg==), of starting out at fuck you status of $2 million on June 1, 2019 (which would have had been 537 BTC), and then after nearly 5 years of withdrawing at 30% per year (on a twice a month basis), nearly $9.4 million would have had been withdrawn, and the remaining BTC stash as of today would have still been nearly 126.4 BTC, and we would have to enter that separately to see it's worth more than $4 million in terms of the 200-WMA (and more than $9 million spot price right now) (https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy?U2FsdGVkX18cffoZh+tQ4QikxXRKyfubWDziH0QUzNr/l+5qU71GMB8euHnMempx1NrbMMTnoiBOsJUIgfVn5Q==)

Of course, past performance does not equal future results, so that would be part of the justification to be careful in terms of ongoing employment of aggressive withdrawal strategies.. but surely each person has to figure out what works for him/her in terms of timing when to start withdrawing BTC.  Also using the feature of advance withdrawal could contribute towards a withdrawing too many BTC too soon.

I don't think i get it. Maybe you can draw on paintbrush, so I can understand this suggestion better. It looks in a separate input area to me. Maybe you are suggesting a different page?

Wow that's great it is actually a good and welcome development from the site developer it will be more easier to explain and expansaite topic for one another here ...

I am not sure if Paintbrush will help because I am talking about the same categories for the simulator. 

% withdrawal, stack size and start date.

In other words, the simulator should run separately from the current.. authorized withdrawal amount.

Edited: O.k.  Below I added a paintbrush example.

Don't get me wrong.  I like the information that is being provided, and I can still figure out both historical and future projection matters because I know what I am looking for, but there can be a bit of confusion for a new person coming to the tool regarding when we are projecting a sustainable withdrawal rate from here into the future to provide an authorized amount to withdraw versus if we are going to project from the past to the present through the simulator.

So for example, if we use $2 million as our default entry-level fuck you status, then right now, I can look at the tool, and I can see that today it takes 62.6 BTC in order to be at FU status (based on the 200-WMA valuation).  However, on June 1, 2019, I needed 537 BTC in order to be at FU status in terms of dollar value and the 200-WMA on that date.

As the below image shows if I want to back test the tool, then the 537 can go into the tool and it shows that withdrawing at the most aggressive rate of 30% annually will reduce the stash down to 124 by today.  This analysis works for someone who is looking at himself having a larger stack in the past and spending down to his current BTC stack size.. but if we currently have not yet reached our fuck you status or close to our fuck you status, we should be forward looking and not backward looking. even though the backward looking tool provides valid information.. to see how a person might have spent his stash down. but it does not do anything to tell us how many BTC we need right now.

Many of us who are still building our BTC stack size are considering how many BTC that we need now or into the future in order to be able to start to use the tool, to start withdrawing under the parameters of the tool and potentially to keep our BTC stacks sustainable in terms of their maintaining their dollar value in order that we can continue to withdraw without depleting our principle, in terms of the dollar value. 

The tool does not help us to backload our current stash in terms of BTC value because that question is mostly irrelevant.. our current BTC stash is too small in order to work in the past, but our current stash will work into the future as long as we have 62.6 BTC now, when we needed to have 537 BTC on June 1, 2019 in order to be in the same place.

So yeah, if we are going to look up the history, then we can put the equivalent number of BTC into the stash in order to use our fuck you status dollar value, but we should be putting that into the simulator side with the 2019 date and not into the current date if we were going to project forward from here versus projecting from the past to here, since the current date only projects from here forward and the stash sizes would be different.

Ok.. here is a Paintbrush illustration that shows examples of separate and independent inputs for each of areas... note an ability to put a different stash size and withdrawal rate added to the simulator input area.

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/03/12/yqell.png

Hello JayJuanGee,

You may have noticed the page is broken. I was getting data from coingecko, and they decided to close their API.


I will look somewhere else for a free bitcoin price data API...  maybe someone has a good suggestion? Maybe binance (this is probably the easiest choice, BTC USDT data from binance)

I have stored locally price data from 2010 to 2021  ;D

Yes. .I noticed that I was getting spinning beachballs, and I was hoping that it was merely a temporary glitch.. and maybe there is a certain rotation that happens with the data sources from time to time... and too bad about these kinds of set backs when the data was showing a lot of informative dynamics that so far are not very capturable in other locations.

Website maintenance  takes some effort. Ddos and broken API in less than a month!

I discovered some free api here:
https://blog.rmotr.com/top-5-free-apis-to-access-historical-cryptocurrencies-data-2438adc8b62

I will take a look and setup one this week!

Ok. great.   Hopefully one of them ends up working for us, and is satisfactory...

Thank you for sharing this discovery.
Sometimes we are looking for an API to collect some data more easily, and it is not easy to find something free.

I will save this link and analyze it for future projects.  ;)

Tool is back online.

I was able to continue using coingecko.

As coingecko allow up to 365 days of historical data in their free plan, and as historical data is static, I just downloaded all historical data.

I also made a small code to check for changes in the last days of their free api plan. So, it will theoretically update our downloaded historical data once a day. Looks to be perfect. let's see in the next days if it updates well!

Good job done bitmover. Hopefully it will work, if coingecko is providing past data for free. There are many users who keep an eye on that tool very often because quick glance of Bitcoin spot price vs 200-WMA and the Bitcoin withdrawal strategy. Hopefully in few days things will get more clear about the new fix.
Everyone can fix the issue with paid plan but you fixed the issue using this novel approach. Kudos to your effort.  

Bitmover, I just realized that we might also need a DCA strategy tool for buying bitcoin :) But that would depend on many things like your current income and what percentage of it you would like to spend.

In addition to that, maybe it can even have some sort of dynamic DCA that looks at moving averages which will influence the amount of bitcoins someone will need to buy.

When discovered btc I didn't do any btc. I used other investments to buy it.. I reallocated in very few months (about 3). Thankfully, signature campaigns are somewhat of a DCA for me.

But a typical dca strategy is nice.

There could be some interesting relationship between how much you should invest and the current 200-WMA.

Maybe at high levels of 200-WMA,  no money should be invested at all? Or just a very small amount.
And when the price is very low, the investor should make an effort to invest more (the money he didn't invest when 200WMA was very high.)

Well, it would be nice for people to see how much money they made a profit off of their DCA strategy if you input the day month and year they've start buying it (or maybe just the month and year but that would not work very well because of the volatile BTC price). You could even make a little graph that shows how much in the green (or red) their investment is in, similar to https://hodl.camp.

Surely there are several factors to account when establishing your BTC position - and the earliest of BTC accumulators probably should be accumulating at any price until the start to get a certain level in which they might be able to be more selective.

I probably would not want to be involved with any kind of tool that overly attempts to strategize in regards to when to buy bitcoin, since my frequent suggestion is to attempt to be as aggressive as you can in regards to investing into bitcoin without over doing it, so even though I am not opposed to the theories of holding back in order to buy on dips, yet from my perspective, there could problems for either suggesting waiting to accumulate or advising to wait to accumulate.. so I am not too excited about anything that might contribute towards waiting.. even though I do understand and agree with ideas about having some money available for buying on dips.. and I also agree with front-loading, even though it can be difficult to know when to engage in any of those kinds of behaviors except for being able to appreciate that you might not have enough BTC so there can be various strategies to employ to attempt to increase the likelihood of accumulating more BTC.. .... but then maybe I have another concern that it is more important to have more BTC even if you had to spend more per BTC to get it, rather than having fewer BTC..

Would you rather be a guy who has an average cost per BTC that is ONLY $1k per BTC, but he ONLY has 2 BTC? or a guy who has an average cost per BTC that is $10k per BTC but he has 10 or more BTC?

One of the things that seems to make bitcoin special is that it is an asset that is amongst the best, if not the best, asset that is widely available to the whole world's population, so a goal of accumulating as many as you can within your own means of gathering seems to be more important than figuring out your average cost per BTC... while at the same time, once you established enough and/or more than enough BTC within the bounds of your assessments of your needs for cashflow, then you can start to use these kinds of sustainable withdrawal tools and perhaps even largely continue to hold your BTC and allow your BTC holdings to continue to grow (at least in terms of dollar values) since the tools might allow you to figure out ways to strategize your sells in either such a way that you don't have to sell as much or alternatively pace your sales.. ... I still have not completely figured out a way on a personal level to completely use any of the advance month sales because it frequently is not going to feel good to sell large amounts of your BTC unless you are starting to feel that the BTC price is getting into territories of over-exuberance, and I am not even going to concede to knowing when that is going to be, so each person would need to figure out the extent to which s/he wants to sell months of withdrawal authorizations in advance.


I find those DCA tools to already be very good tools for figuring out where a person would have had been if he had followed a certain level of strict DCA strategy, even for some period and then selecting another period and then doing some of the math ourselves in regards to if there might have had some periods of lump sum in the buying period or buying dips.

So sometimes we might be able to see where our actual bitcoin holdings are, versus where our holdings would have been or could have been if we were to have had followed some other strategy... and sometimes even being able to see if whatever we are currently doing is competitive with some kind of a strict DCA strategy or if we might have over-performed or under-performed such a strategy.

The tools are likely ONLY going to take us so far.. and surely one of the advantages of already having had established a BTC stash that might be enough or more than enough is that either this sustainable withdrawal tool, or even my raking tool (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5475347.msg63213921#msg63213921), can help to give us ideas in regards to how to reasonably manage the stash that we had already established. .and if we had been investing in bitcoin for several cycles, then it becomes more and more likely that we are going to be in sufficient profits.. which is another problem with considering merely simple profits, and from my own point of vies simple profits do not make very much difference, since sure maybe we can sell some of our BTC based on merely being in simple profits, but if we build and hold BTC profits for several cycles, it becomes more and more likely that our BTC holdings will already start to be in a kind of status of compounding profits, which additionally justifies the employment of a sustainable withdrawal status that ends up likely taking advantage of the ability of the BTC holdings to continue to compound in value... ..

but then again once someone might be in the process of actually wanting to sustainably withdraw from his BTC stash, he may no longer be as concerned about compounding value, but instead more appreciating of the fact that BTC prices (especially measured by the 200-WMA) are continuing to out perform traditional investments which likely justifies the abilities to employ withdrawal rates that are much higher than if he were to keep his value in traditional investments, so surely it is becoming more apparent to me that a 10% withdrawal strategy has good chances of continuing to be sustainable in bitcoin, which largely means that a guy in bitcoin may well ONLY need to have $800k in bitcoin as compared to $2 million in traditional investments (again measuring by the 200-WMA is currently a reduction from around 60.8 BTC to 24.3 BTC.  each of them would constitute around a $6,666 month withdrawal amount... yet having the value in BTC likely causes the lower amount of BTC to be more sustainable than if the higher amount of BTC were sold into dollars and surely of course, since the current BTC price is a bit more than double the 200-WMA, then around 30 BTC could be sold right now to get the $2million fuck you status.. . .and maybe include having to sell a bit more for taxes.. (maybe 36 BTC), so then if the guy is walking away with $2 million in cash then he would presumptively need to invest it somewhere in order to get the 4% withdrawal rate and/or the $6,666 per month of income off of that.

I would feel much more comfortable having 24.3 BTC in BTC and using a 10% withdrawal rate in order to get the $6,666 per month of cashflow perpetually and in a sustainable way based on bitcoin's ongoing expected growth rate, and at the same time we can look at actual BTC's 200-WMA growth rate to attempt to verify if we are expecting the amount to come down and/or if our anticipated ongoing 10% withdrawal rate is continuing to be sustainable.

This is very important. I agree 100%.

The average cost simple doesn't matter. It is an imaginary number in our heads, which has zero consequences.

How much BTC you have (or any other asset) is much more important than how much you paid for it.

If you have 10 BTC now and I have 10 BTC now too, it doesn't make any different if my average price is lower or higher than yours. They are worth the same.

We should never try to guide our decisions based in average prices imo.

In regards to accumulating BTC, from my perspective, there is a really BIG shortage in BTC holders, and the reason for that is because they are spending too much time waiting and not enough time acting, so I cannot see any tool to be helpful in terms of helping guys to engage in more strategizing than they already tend to do in their BTC accumulating process journey.

I also believe it is not correct to say that people who each have 10 BTC is the correct comparison, even though technically you are correct, yet I think that the main issue is that there may well be guys of more or less equal means, and some of them are more aggressive in their BTC accumulation than others, and surely it pays to be aggressive, and so part of the point is that one of the guys is going to end up with more BTC than the other, and the sooner he gets started accumulating BTC, the more he is likely to accumulate, yet there still can end up being cases where a more aggressive investor will be able to catch up, even if he comes to BTC later. 

In one of my posts (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5132720.msg63876518#msg63876518) within the past week, I attempt to outline those kinds of examples in one of my posts in which I compared the examples of three different guys, and to try to show their main difference was their level of aggressiveness and when they found out about bitcoin

I think DCA is more about learning how much return Bitcoin has given in past years on specific amount. Like if someone has invested 10$ per week for 5 years then there are tools already available that can tell you how much profit one has gained. Based on that historical data one can adjust his investment strategy for DCA.


Signature campaigns are not only DCA for the account owners but they also provide an easy way for persons to acquire Bitcoins specially in areas where buying Bitcoin is forbidden for different reasons.