[ANN] JJG Sustainable Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy

[bitmover]

In the last month I have been working together with @JayJuanGee (JJG), to implement a website version of this Sustainable Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy, which serves as a guide to maintenance and liquidation of a Bitcoin portfolio, based on the 200 week moving average.

There are several threads about it, and I believe there is a good consolidation of his idea here

His strategy existed basically in excel sheets, but now there is a website version with many interactive functions:



https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy


There are basically 2 sides:
To the left you will input your data. How much BTC you want to use in this strategy and how much is your annual withdrawal rate. (recommended 4 to 6%, conservative)

To the right, you will see how much btc you are authorized to withdrawal per month based on the 200WMA. However, you may be allowed to withdrawal advanced months if the difference between spot price and 200WMA is too high.

Also, you can take a look in the past data (choose date button) and see how much you would had been authorized in the past using this tool/strategy.


There is certainly a lot of room for improvement, and I would like to hear from WO members and @fillippone which was very active in the recent discussions with JJG.

Please help me find bugs and share your ideas.

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[fillippone]

Very lovely and very neatly presented.
I will play more extensively with this in the coming weeks.
I would suggest implementing some more complete “views” of the future scenario: how will my stash be depleted if Bitcoin grows in the future according to a few data points?

[dkbit98]

In the last month I have been working together with @JayJuanGee (JJG), to implement a website version of this Sustainable Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy, which serves as a guide to maintenance and liquidation of a Bitcoin portfolio, based on the 200 week moving average.

Page and chart loads a bit slower on my side, but it looks interesting, maybe like reversed dollar cost averaging.
Word withdrawal sounds to me like Bitcoin is held on some centralized website or exchange, because I would never use this term if I ever sold BTC from my non-custodial wallet.

Please help me find bugs and share your ideas.

Chart bug, it's not always loading and I have blank space in that field.
Even if I refresh page with f5 it still doesn't load.

[Prancheiro]

In the last month I have been working together with @JayJuanGee (JJG), to implement a website version of this Sustainable Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy, which serves as a guide to maintenance and liquidation of a Bitcoin portfolio, based on the 200 week moving average.

Wow, this is amazing, bitmover!

The way the site enables visualization and interaction with the strategy is so much more user-friendly than any Excel sheet.

I'll admit, I was new to this strategy, but your site made it easy to grasp the concept. Really impressive work!

To the left you will input your data. How much BTC you want to use in this strategy and how much is your annual withdrawal rate. (recommended 4 to 6%, conservative)

While exploring, I did come across a couple of bugs:

- The interest rate seems fixed at 6% and doesn't change when the bar is moved.
- The BTC stash size remains the same even after I click "save inputs" before refreshing the page. It resets to 1 BTC.

Hope this feedback helps.
I'm looking forward to diving deeper into the site and seeing it evolve.

Keep up the great work!

Also, I have some ideas for future features if you're interested.

[bitmover]

I would suggest implementing some more complete “views” of the future scenario: how will my stash be depleted if Bitcoin grows in the future according to a few data points?

Thank you.

I will think about implementations of this. This might be a dull chart, like this
but I think this is necessary.

(this only consider withdrawal 4% anual)

Page and chart loads a bit slower on my side, but it looks interesting, maybe like reversed dollar cost averaging.
Word withdrawal sounds to me like Bitcoin is held on some centralized website or exchange, because I would never use this term if I ever sold BTC from my non-custodial wallet.

I know this is a bit slow.. I will try to make it faster, just the first release. I think I will reduce datapoints and add option to see only the past years (this will increase performance)

This is "withdrawal" from your portfolio, selling BTC to convert to some other assets, or just to spend it (in case you are already retired and not in the accumulation phase anymore)

Chart bug, it's not always loading and I have blank space in that field.
Even if I refresh page with f5 it still doesn't load.

I think coingecko has a limitation of API requests. If chart is blank, just wait a few seconds to reload it again.

The way the site enables visualization and interaction with the strategy is so much more user-friendly than any Excel sheet.

I'll admit, I was new to this strategy, but your site made it easy to grasp the concept. Really impressive work!

Thank you!

While exploring, I did come across a couple of bugs:

- The interest rate seems fixed at 6% and doesn't change when the bar is moved.
- The BTC stash size remains the same even after I click "save inputs" before refreshing the page. It resets to 1 BTC.

I got those fixed. I made a small change in the code a few hours ago that broke that. Thanks.

Also, I have some ideas for future features if you're interested.

Please share with me! I am looking for suggestions to improve this, and even create more tools to train my skills

[WatChe]

Both Graphs working fine at my end. Graph takes 5 or 6 second initially to load itself but are loading. So nothing to worry about that.

I have already given you a small suggestion here, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg63400036#msg63400036

May be we can dark the colour of 200-Week MA line on main graph and bold it, so it looks more prominent.

It will also be good idea if there is zoom in and zoom out functionality in Graphs. Like Graphs are showing data from 2013 to 2023. If you can provide functionality that can allow us to see data for say last 5 years or 1 year only.

Just my few satoshis. Overall its a fantastic job and 10/10 for that work.

[Prancheiro]

I got those fixed. I made a small change in the code a few hours ago that broke that. Thanks.

Nice! It is working!
BTW, if it is possible to add a field to type the Annual withdrawal rate, it will help. Fine tuning the bar is not easy - at least for me! Haha

Please share with me! I am looking for suggestions to improve this, and even create more tools to train my skills

I'm sure that's not the goal, but I was thinking about the possibility of using the data and the graph to also indicate potential moments of purchase.
So in the future, if you think it makes sense, you could include some parameters (to be defined by each user), which, when reached, would send an alert indicating the moment.
ex: If the 200WMA drops to x%, send me an alert indicating purchase.

Keep with the work!

[JayJuanGee]

Very lovely and very neatly presented.
I will play more extensively with this in the coming weeks.
I would suggest implementing some more complete “views” of the future scenario: how will my stash be depleted if Bitcoin grows in the future according to a few data points?

It seems to me that visualization of the future how it relates to your stash size, and your withdrawal rate comes through a projection of what the 200-week moving average does, which historically it has ONLY gone up, so far... but then it also has to do with what the BTC price does that will thereby affect how much you are able to withdraw and we are not really projecting future prices, even though we are suggesting that if you keep your withdrawal rate at a certain level, then some of those withdrawal rates are more sustainable than others.

Yeah, I know that I am kind of dodging the suggestion regarding how those kinds of tools (or visualizations) might be added based on knowables but at the same time unknowables... but we are trying to do it based on the knowables, right?  which concededly, we can ONLY know so much.

You can see those kinds of historical numbers for the 200-WMA and the future projection of the 200-WMA in my entry-level fuck you status chart, and then in that chart I believe that I am attempting to conservatively project ahead how many BTC it takes to be at entry-level fuck you status in that chart which ends up projecting ahead the 200-week moving average.. which ONLY infers the spot price to be ongoingly higher in order to drag the 200-WMA upwardly and in an ongoing way, so yeah, it could take some creativity to figure out some good ways to attempt to display those kinds of ideas and to intermix the ideas and to include the personal input data in order to really attempt to figure out what might be a more conservative (or way to keep growing your BTC stash while you are withdrawing from it) as compared with a more regular "sustainable" withdrawal rate versus a more aggressive withdrawal rate that is likely going to end up depleting your BTC stash.

It seems to me that using the 200-week moving average as a means to valuate your BTC stash in terms of the bottom prices but then to juxtapose that with the BTC spot price, then we make adjustments to how much we are authorizing ourselves to withdraw based on how far the spot price is from the 200-week moving average, but then at the same time, we should not have to continue to change whatever level of aggressiveness that we choose to employ based on our chosen percentage of withdrawal.

Of course, you can use this particular tool without necessarily reaching entry-level fuck you status, but just to maybe create a budget for yourself or some sub-organization, but let's say that we use entry-level fuck you status as our guideline for how many coins that we feel that we need prior to using the tool, and if we look at my chart, we will see that based on the 200-week moving average, as of the end of November 2023, we would have had needed to have 68.85 BTC to reach the threshold value of $2 million (again based on the 200-week moving average) not based on the BTC spot price, so if we started to withdrawal at a pretty conservative rate of 4% per year (or 1% per quarter or 0.333 per month) as the website would help us to get at those values for today or historically,^** we would be authorized to withdraw 0.2295 BTC per month as long as the BTC spot price is at least 25% above the 200-week moving average, and we could withdraw extra months depending on how high above the 200-week moving average we are.


** I did just input this info into the website and I noticed that future dates are allowed to be put into the date field, and that must be an error since we currently do not have any formulas for the future, and that is another thing that is difficult about any future trajectory of how much we would be able to withdraw would be based on the then price relative to the 200-week moving average, the BTC price is not at least 25% higher than the 200-WMA, we would not be allowed to withdraw the full month's allocation but instead a percentage depending on how low the spot price is on the day that we are doing the calculation... so we might have choices from time to time whether we withdraw the full authorized amount, and then if the BTC price is at least 25% higher we could withdraw the whole month's authorization and if it is 33% or higher then we are authorized to withdraw multiple of months, but we could elect not to withdraw months in advance because maybe we are choosing for when (or if) the BTC price goes to higher levels then we would be authorized to withdraw more months in advance.. and there is a certain presumption of not only withdrawing, but converting to dollars otherwise there is no real benefit to withdrawing the extra months (the advance months) based on the then BTC spot price.

Presumptively if we are withdrawing in a conservative way such as below 6%, then the dollar value of our BTC would have good chances of going up, even though our BTC stack size would be going down, and presumptively if we are withdrawing between 6% to 10% then the fiat value of our stash may well stay at similar levels, and finally the more aggressive that we are beyond 10% then the larger the chance that we are depleting our stash value in terms of its ability to sustain its dollar value at the rate we are withdrawing it... and we label 17% and higher be extremely aggressive and the tool allows going up to 30% per year.. but yeah visualizing how that might affect our level of sustainability might take some higher level math skills (referring to my own challenges to come up with what the right formulas might be and then how to display that .. .which also kinds of reminds me that some of the numbers that I have chosen are somewhat arbitrary in regards to where I chose to divide, which may or may not be eligible for better formulas rather than my having had chosen some of the dividing points)..

In the last month I have been working together with @JayJuanGee (JJG), to implement a website version of this Sustainable Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy, which serves as a guide to maintenance and liquidation of a Bitcoin portfolio, based on the 200 week moving average.

Page and chart loads a bit slower on my side, but it looks interesting, maybe like reversed dollar cost averaging.

I have heard people use that term, and I am not much of a fan of that term to apply to the way that I think about cashing out or liquidating or withdrawing your BTC, especially if you are striving towards employing such withdrawals in a sustainable way... . Of course, I am not going to proclaim that you are completely off of your rocker for making that kind of an attempt at a comparison.  

Let me see if I can elaborate.  If we consider the traditional DCA practice, it is a kind of price blind way buying of BTC that is largely dependent upon what is your discretionary income and then buying when you have the discretionary income so it could be regularly set and kind of mild or it can be maximized in a way that uses all of the discretionary income as that discretionary income comes in.

The system of sustainable withdrawal could look at the whole BTC stash size and then calculate from there or maybe just choosing a portion of the BTC stash that might be to create an income stream for a project and how much money comes through the BTC stash could be ongoing and even perpetual in nature as long as it is more on the conservative side rather than aggressive side.  Of course, if someone might be more aggressive in their wanting to get out of BTC, then they could set much higher percentages for withdrawal (which may well be more like reverse DCA - getting out of the BTC position), but I was not considering the tool in that kind of way, even though I suppose it could be used in that kind of way, especially if we are setting it more aggressively with the percentage amounts. I recall that when bitmover first set up the percentage slider, he only allowed it to go up to 20%, and he agreed with my suggestion to go up to 30%, which surely from my thinking would be quite far from sustainable withdraw but it may well be considered to be something like getting out of a BTC position in a reverse DCA kind of a way.. and even with a 30% withdrawal rate, it could end up taking 5 years or more to really deplete your BTC stash, depending on how BTC prices perform.. (I am not sure if it is worth it to allow the tool to go higher than 30%, even though I don't really have an objections to that for someone who might be wanting to get out of his position fast, so maybe we could end up allowing the tool to be used in that kind of a way.. and then call it "reverse DCA"... hahahahahaha  that would be funny. I am warming up to the idea of reverse DCA in that kind of a super aggressive withdrawal context).

Word withdrawal sounds to me like Bitcoin is held on some centralized website or exchange, because I would never use this term if I ever sold BTC from my non-custodial wallet.

Maybe there is a better word?  but it seems that I had likely gotten that word (whether subliminally or otherwise) from the idea of a retirement account, and the reference to a withdrawal rate of 3% or 4%, which means that there is withdrawal from the investment and use of the funds for various kinds of consumption and/or income.

Withdrawal is the term that is already used for pretty much the kind of thing that I a trying to describe in regards to bitcoin as the primary asset, and sure no one is saying that bitcoin would be the only asset that a person has, so if we go back to fuck you status, and maybe someone has a variety of accounts stocks, bonds, commodities, properties, and/or perhaps cash and cash equivalents, so there may be choices about how much to withdraw from each, and let's say that bitcoin was half of the amount (so $1 million) and then the other non-bitcoin assets was the other half, so bitcoin might have a certain formula and the others have a certain formula, and maybe we are striving to withdraw $6,666 for our monthly income from all of those sources, so it could be that if we create sustainable withdrawal rates in regards to all of them, such as at 4% per year, then they could likely be withdrawn from forever as long as they are appreciating in value at least on average of 4% per year, but I continue to suspect that bitcoin is going to outperform other assets, and that is part of the reason that it retains a 200-week moving average that continues to move up quite aggressively. .and its worse performance over the last 18 months still had the 200 week moving up at 20% on an annual basis (see the historical depictions of 6 month increments in my fuck you status chart) .  So I suppose that part of the reason why the website is labelling 6-10% as sustainable withdrawal is partially based on bitcoin's historical price performance but also some anticipation that the 6-10% per year is sustainable in terms of the bitcoin stash retaining its dollar value, in spite of something like a 6-10% withdrawal rate.

Please help me find bugs and share your ideas.

Chart bug, it's not always loading and I have blank space in that field.
Even if I refresh page with f5 it still doesn't load.

I was having that issue sometimes too.. I think mostly in Chrome, but then when I switched over to Safari it was working fine.. but then it would resolve itself in Chrome after a while too.

I would suggest implementing some more complete “views” of the future scenario: how will my stash be depleted if Bitcoin grows in the future according to a few data points?

Thank you.

I will think about implementations of this. This might be a dull chart, like this
but I think this is necessary.

(this only consider withdrawal 4% anual)

Yes there could be some kind of way of presenting the matter, and for sure if the withdrawal rate is steadily at 4%, then the BTC quantity would go down 4% per year like that, but somehow we would have to account for both the dollar value and also the extent to which we might end up getting throttled in our BTC withdrawal rate if the BTC price might go to less than 25% higher than the 200-week moving average and also, if we withdraw months in advance based on high prices, we may well end up using some of that money to buy back some BTC, sure we cannot presume that we would buy back BTC, merely if we were to withdraw 23 months or more in advance.. so in accordance with the tool, once the BTC price goes more than 400% above the 200-week moving average, then we would be authorized to withdraw 24 months (the current month plus 23 months in advance) and I had built in several of those kinds of authorization that go up to the ability to withdraw 59 months in advance (which is 5 years), so it may well end up being the case that bitcoin does not turn back down in such a way that there is any concerns to want to be able to live off of those advanced amounts, so BTC could end up getting bought back and then increasing the BTC stash and increasing future withdrawals based on quantity of BTC that is being used to calculate future withdrawals.  

Historically, we could look back and maybe put in the date of December 17, 2017 and we can see that the tool would have had authorized withdrawing 59 months in advance based on a 1,491% difference between the then spot price and the 200-WMA, but even if the person used such guidance to have monthly living expenses for 59 months, the bear market of 2018, 2019 and 2020 did not last even close to 59 months, so there could have been a determination at some point to use some of those sold months to buy back in, even in early 2019 (between April 1 and the end of June), there could have had been a decision to use some of those extra sold months (the 59 months in advance) to buy back some BTC.. and then reenable the ability to use the tool again.. since by the way, the idea of cashing out in advance means that you cannot sell any more (or withdraw anymore) BTC for all of those months in advance that you had withdrawn absent either using some of the months to buy back BTC, or if the BTC price goes up above the number of months in advance that you had sold in order that you would be authorized additional months to sell (or withdraw more).  

I got those fixed. I made a small change in the code a few hours ago that broke that. Thanks.

Nice! It is working!
BTW, if it is possible to add a field to type the Annual withdrawal rate, it will help. Fine tuning the bar is not easy - at least for me! Haha

I agree that it would be nice if both the slider and the manual entry could exist.. even though the slider does have the nice little changing of descriptors of conservative, moderate, aggressive and severely aggressive.

Please share with me! I am looking for suggestions to improve this, and even create more tools to train my skills

I'm sure that's not the goal, but I was thinking about the possibility of using the data and the graph to also indicate potential moments of purchase.
So in the future, if you think it makes sense, you could include some parameters (to be defined by each user), which, when reached, would send an alert indicating the moment.
ex: If the 200WMA drops to x%, send me an alert indicating purchase.

Keep with the work!

That sounds interesting to send alerts and of course we are mostly thinking in terms of alerting for possible sells (since this is a selling tool), but once such a tool is created, it could be used in either direction (meaning for selling and/or for buying).. so I am not sure how difficult it would be to add some kind of a tool like that, but it does sound interesting as a concept...

On the other hand, wouldn't the user have to provide some kind of data such as e-mail or sms.. and then would we be able to blindly interface with that, without collecting any user data?  I think that we are probably a bit nervous about any kind of collection or retention of user data.. at least at this point.. but of course, with discussions of monetization some times there can develop trade-offs to weigh differently with the passage of time.

[JayJuanGee]

@Moderators:  I am hoping you do not merge my last two posts because I brought these below responses of mine over from the WO thread, and it seems more clear (and less confusing) to keep these below responses in a separate post.

I have already given you a small suggestion here, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg63400036#msg63400036

Yes.  We may as well bring that part of the discussion over here to see if anyone has any further responses. 

I responded a couple of times to your particular line of discussion, and there were some other responses that I made to some other inquirerers, but I am not sure if all of my responses would be necessary, even though they would be more topical in this thread, so that bitmover might be able to see if there is some technical angle.. ..

Here it is:

Hey, i want to share with WO this new project I have been working on with @JayJuanGee.

Probably everyone here knows about JJG Sustainable Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy.

We have implement a website version of his Withdrawal Strategy, which serves as a guide to maintenance and liquidation of a Bitcoin portfolio, based on the 200 week moving average.

Take a look, and please give me your feedback and ideas!


https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

Great work!
I have a small suggestion. It would be better if you add a 2 to 3 minute Youtube video about what this site is, how it works and how to use it. This will make the site generic and anyone visiting this site can have an idea of it. Written material is there but people usually prefer videos instead of reading.

Just my few Satoshis.

We already discussed the possibility of a hot chick performing a sustainable withdrawal interpretive dance.

We might have to indicate that we are seeking applicants with youtube, TikTok and/or other potentially relevant experiences (and maybe an in-person interview?  I am not sure yet, who would be doing the interview(s) that are expected from this.).
...

[edited out]

We already discussed the possibility of a hot chick performing a sustainable withdrawal interpretive dance.

We might have to indicate that we are seeking applicants with youtube, TikTok and/or other potentially relevant experiences (and maybe an in-person interview?  I am not sure yet, who would be doing the interview(s) that are expected from this.).

What I am saying is anyone landing on that website from bitcointalk.org would understand who JJG is and what this site is about. But for an outsider it will be a bit difficult to understand what this page is telling.
May be we can have videos in different languages so that people from different areas can understand this in there native language. Like if you do a video in Urdu/Hindi language, it has target audience of almost over 1 billion. (231 million population of Pakistan and 1.4 billion population of India).

And, by the way, bitmover has a thread on the topic too..

Went there to appreciate the fantastic job. 

Of course you likely realize that I am only half joking when it comes to the interpretive dance, but the other half would be if someone were to want to create some kind of video (or even translate the thread) then that could be possible. I have my doubts about expanding into YouTube videos, unless someone wants to do it, and there could be some potential to discuss compensation, and sure if some folks are already good at doing those kinds of videos then they might have a track record, but we might not be willing to pay how much they would like.. but then it also might depend upon whether we were monetizing the site.. so then if there was a certain amount of traffic and then the videos draw more traffic, then it could justify improving the product and then to have more appeal to a broader audience and even in other languages... and even after responding to all of  this, I would think that having text versions that are translated in other languages would be the more logical next step rather than taking any of us out of our specialty realm.. which so far has not been video content.

What I am saying is anyone landing on that website from bitcointalk.org would understand who JJG is and what this site is about. But for an outsider it will be a bit difficult to understand what this page is telling.
May be we can have videos in different languages so that people from different areas can understand this in there native language. Like if you do a video in Urdu/Hindi language, it has target audience of almost over 1 billion. (231 million population of Pakistan and 1.4 billion population of India).

Of course you likely realize that I am only half joking when it comes to the interpretive dance, but the other half would be if someone were to want to create some kind of video (or even translate the thread) then that could be possible. I have my doubts about expanding into YouTube videos, unless someone wants to do it, and there could be some potential to discuss compensation, and sure if some folks are already good at doing those kinds of videos then they might have a track record, but we might not be willing to pay how much they would like.. but then it also might depend upon whether we were monetizing the site.. so then if there was a certain amount of traffic and then the videos draw more traffic, then it could justify improving the product and then to have more appeal to a broader audience and even in other languages... and even after responding to all of  this, I would think that having text versions that are translated in other languages would be the more logical next step rather than taking any of us out of our specialty realm.. which so far has not been video content.

Obviously I do got the humour involved in your post.

You would not consider it funny to have a hot chick make an interpretive dance to a sustainable withdrawal technique and/or to have I and/or bitmover require an "in person" interview?

The idea of putting a video is to give that great work more recognition and projection.

I am not saying it is a bad idea.  It is just not our bali-wick, so far.  We are barely getting the website up and running (and open to the public), and I have not even had a chance to go through bitmover's thread on the topic.. including that I have some other outstanding communication that I have with him that I would likely attempt to address first.

If there is a shot and comprehensive video about the site then it will attract more traffic. You may think of monetising the site at some later stage, when you have adequate traffic. Right not the site is mostly for bitcointalk.org users.

No argument from me.  It just launched in the last couple of days, and we are also talking about whether to stay on that site or to create another domain for such....including that we are also talking about the potential of converting my opening post 3 into a webpage, too.

Fillippone created an update to the chart in an interactive GoogleSpreadsheet in which guys can input their own data (such as BTC stash size, increments for withdrawal and % amounts of withdrawal) in order to see their own results.

If you want the video content you can announce about that here and I am sure you will get lots of good creator here. Price can be negotiated with interested folks, you may even get people who will do it for free.

No argument from me, and even if we are not currently saying that we are seeking applications, beyond the hot chick interpretive dancer, I am sure that if there were any serious attempts to collaborate in that direction, then we could consider it. and potentially negotiate terms (most likely privately).. even if something might be free, we may or may not choose to link to it, depending on if we believe that it were to be potentially helpful.  Of course, anything in another language might need to have some kind of a transcript so that we could review it..   

About translation, there are already many threads translated into different languages. All you need is an announcement here that you need to translate your thread or website, you will get lots of applicants for that work.    

I think that many folks who have their threads translated will usually request the data to be linked to the original, and of course if there were a whole website translated that would be further down the road.. but could be a possibility if it seems to be something that we might want to include.

[WatChe]

@Moderators:  I am hoping you do not merge my last two posts because I brought these below responses of mine over from the WO thread, and it seems more clear (and less confusing) to keep these below responses in a separate post.

I have already given you a small suggestion here, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg63400036#msg63400036

Yes.  We may as well bring that part of the discussion over here to see if anyone has any further responses. 

I responded a couple of times to your particular line of discussion, and there were some other responses that I made to some other inquirerers, but I am not sure if all of my responses would be necessary, even though they would be more topical in this thread, so that bitmover might be able to see if there is some technical angle.. ..
.
.
.

Yes I have read that detailed response on WO thread.

You are right in saying that web site is just up and there need to be a detailed QA of this site before adding some new stuff here.

I will also try to come up with some points from technical aspect that can improve this project.

[bitmover]

May be we can dark the colour of 200-Week MA line on main graph and bold it, so it looks more prominent.

Done!

It will also be good idea if there is zoom in and zoom out functionality in Graphs. Like Graphs are showing data from 2013 to 2023. If you can provide functionality that can allow us to see data for say last 5 years or 1 year only.

I will add buttons of 1M,6M,1Y, 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, ALL. It is in my TODO list.

** I did just input this info into the website and I noticed that future dates are allowed to be put into the date field, and that must be an error since we currently do not have any formulas for the future

Fixed!!!

You cannot enter future dates anymore.

Presumptively if we are withdrawing in a conservative way such as below 6%, then the dollar value of our BTC would have good chances of going up, even though our BTC stack size would be going down, and presumptively if we are withdrawing between 6% to 10% then the fiat value of our stash may well stay at similar levels, and finally the more aggressive that we are beyond 10% then the larger the chance that we are depleting our stash value in terms of its ability to sustain its dollar value at the rate we are withdrawing it... and we label 17% and higher be extremely aggressive and the tool allows going up to 30% per year.. but yeah visualizing how that might affect our level of sustainability might take some higher level math skills (referring to my own challenges to come up with what the right formulas might be and then how to display that .. .which also kinds of reminds me that some of the numbers that I have chosen are somewhat arbitrary in regards to where I chose to divide, which may or may not be eligible for better formulas rather than my having had chosen some of the dividing points)..

I think this chart "Portfolio decumulation" or depletion or something like that is important. Specially when moving the range pointer, so you can see how long your stash will survive.

The user can see the inclination changes and how long it will last.

TO DO!

Word withdrawal sounds to me like Bitcoin is held on some centralized website or exchange, because I would never use this term if I ever sold BTC from my non-custodial wallet.

Maybe there is a better word?  but it seems that I had likely gotten that word (whether subliminally or otherwise) from the idea of a retirement account, and the reference to a withdrawal rate of 3% or 4%, which means that there is withdrawal from the investment and use of the funds for various kinds of consumption and/or income.

decumulation perhaps?


[

I would suggest implementing some more complete “views” of the future scenario: how will my stash be depleted if Bitcoin grows in the future according to a few data points?

Thank you.

I will think about implementations of this. This might be a dull chart, like this
but I think this is necessary.

(this only consider withdrawal 4% anual)

....

Historically, we could look back and maybe put in the date of December 17, 2017 and we can see that the tool would have had authorized withdrawing 59 months in advance based on a 1,491% difference between the then spot price and the 200-WMA, but even if the person used such guidance to have monthly living expenses for 59 months, the bear market of 2018, 2019 and 2020 did not last even close to 59 months, so there could have been a determination at some point to use some of those sold months to buy back in, even in early 2019 (between April 1 and the end of June), there could have had been a decision to use some of those extra sold months (the 59 months in advance) to buy back some BTC.. and then reenable the ability to use the tool again.. since by the way, the idea of cashing out in advance means that you cannot sell any more (or withdraw anymore) BTC for all of those months in advance that you had withdrawn absent either using some of the months to buy back BTC, or if the BTC price goes up above the number of months in advance that you had sold in order that you would be authorized additional months to sell (or withdraw more). 

This chart will be interesting, another TODO!

Please share with me! I am looking for suggestions to improve this, and even create more tools to train my skills

I'm sure that's not the goal, but I was thinking about the possibility of using the data and the graph to also indicate potential moments of purchase.
So in the future, if you think it makes sense, you could include some parameters (to be defined by each user), which, when reached, would send an alert indicating the moment.
ex: If the 200WMA drops to x%, send me an alert indicating purchase.

Keep with the work!

That sounds interesting to send alerts and of course we are mostly thinking in terms of alerting for possible sells (since this is a selling tool), but once such a tool is created, it could be used in either direction (meaning for selling and/or for buying).. so I am not sure how difficult it would be to add some kind of a tool like that, but it does sound interesting as a concept...

On the other hand, wouldn't the user have to provide some kind of data such as e-mail or sms.. and then would we be able to blindly interface with that, without collecting any user data?  I think that we are probably a bit nervous about any kind of collection or retention of user data.. at least at this point.. but of course, with discussions of monetization some times there can develop trade-offs to weigh differently with the passage of time.

User would probably have to create an account with an email or something like that.

The email could even come with a letter with some investment advice from JJG? 



JayJuanGee , I saw your PM about changing some more features, I will do that with the new buttons on the chart in a next ( bigger) update!

[JayJuanGee]

** I did just input this info into the website and I noticed that future dates are allowed to be put into the date field, and that must be an error since we currently do not have any formulas for the future

Fixed!!!

You cannot enter future dates anymore.

I just tried it, and you are correct that it is not possible to click on the calendar for the input of future dates, but I can still input future dates manually.

Presumptively if we are withdrawing in a conservative way such as below 6%, then the dollar value of our BTC would have good chances of going up, even though our BTC stack size would be going down, and presumptively if we are withdrawing between 6% to 10% then the fiat value of our stash may well stay at similar levels, and finally the more aggressive that we are beyond 10% then the larger the chance that we are depleting our stash value in terms of its ability to sustain its dollar value at the rate we are withdrawing it... and we label 17% and higher be extremely aggressive and the tool allows going up to 30% per year.. but yeah visualizing how that might affect our level of sustainability might take some higher level math skills (referring to my own challenges to come up with what the right formulas might be and then how to display that .. .which also kinds of reminds me that some of the numbers that I have chosen are somewhat arbitrary in regards to where I chose to divide, which may or may not be eligible for better formulas rather than my having had chosen some of the dividing points)..

I think this chart "Portfolio decumulation" or depletion or something like that is important. Specially when moving the range pointer, so you can see how long your stash will survive.

The user can see the inclination changes and how long it will last.

TO DO!

I realize that I responded in long ways and even meandered away from the main points about ability to show some kind of of a meaningful trajectory, so there may be ways to give some ballpark ideas of that, and of course, the basic presumption would be that we are ONLY withdrawing and not continuing to add to our stash, so the basic trajectory of the BTC stash is would by trajectored out as going down, but it could be misleading to presume that your BTC stash is actually losing value in terms of dollars (or even purchasing power), so it would need to include some kind of idea of dollar value, which brings another GIANT unknown in regards to whether how well the dollar might even retain a meaningful debasement rate - but even if we attempt to assume away that the dollar is debasing at nominal rates that still allows for us to be able to sustain our purchasing power value in real terms, then we still would be trying to attempt to measure a variety of unmeasurables (or unknowns) and still end up engaging in quite a bit of ballparking of the estimates (which still is not necessarily a bad thing to do - because we want to be able to provide a calculator in which individuals are able to have tools to help themselves to best estimate future possibilities, even if there is a recognition that the tool is still ballparking.. and the further it projects out into the future the more it is ballparking).

So just to reiterrate, in terms of BTC terms, we could draw from our BTC 4% or even 10% every single year into perpetuity, and we are never going to deplete our BTC to zero, but the number will get increasingly smaller and smaller, and so yeah, the larger the percentage we are drawing out, then the more it is going to deplete, so the main question seems to be if the dollar is debasing faster than our withdrawal rate (or in other words if the purchasing power of our remaining BTC is going up  faster than the rate that we are withdrawing it), and there seems to be no way to really project very accurately in these regards, even though we can project out that our BTC stash is getting smaller (and maybe that is all that fillippone is saying that he would like to be able to see.. and I have no real problem showing that).. but is that visualization of our BTC shrinking to such tiny amounts really telling us very much when it still depends upon the dollar value, so the remaining BTC still might be going up in purchasing power, even though the amount would inevitably be going down with the passage of time..

Word withdrawal sounds to me like Bitcoin is held on some centralized website or exchange, because I would never use this term if I ever sold BTC from my non-custodial wallet.

Maybe there is a better word?  but it seems that I had likely gotten that word (whether subliminally or otherwise) from the idea of a retirement account, and the reference to a withdrawal rate of 3% or 4%, which means that there is withdrawal from the investment and use of the funds for various kinds of consumption and/or income.

decumulation perhaps?

I personally would like to just stick with the traditional word of "withdraw" because it is used in a lot of circles and it is generally widely known and probably quite descriptive of what we are doing (or calculating the doing of such).

In my battling around of the idea, I do believe that dkbit98's discussion of the reverse DCA did raised a more important point about the potential utility of allowing the tool to have greater than 30% withdrawal rates, which I may well want to suggest that any amount higher than 30% would fall into the categorization of reverse DCA (a kind of quick disinvestment perspective).. yet since the actual tool is presenting withdrawal on a monthly basis, even a 40% annual withdrawal rate would result in 10% per quarter and 3% per month, so it could still be possible to have a pretty long withdrawal period (or reverse DCA), even if the rate was set at 40%, the withdrawal period still might end up lasting close to 3 years and still making sense in regards to the quantity of BTC being withdrawn monthly at the end of the 3-year period as compared to what it had been at the beginning of the 3-year period.. of course, part of the meaningfulness of the withdrawal amount may well have to do with whether BTC is in an upward trend during that time or a downward trend.

I would suggest implementing some more complete “views” of the future scenario: how will my stash be depleted if Bitcoin grows in the future according to a few data points?

Thank you.

I will think about implementations of this. This might be a dull chart, like this
but I think this is necessary.

(this only consider withdrawal 4% anual)

Historically, we could look back and maybe put in the date of December 17, 2017 and we can see that the tool would have had authorized withdrawing 59 months in advance based on a 1,491% difference between the then spot price and the 200-WMA, but even if the person used such guidance to have monthly living expenses for 59 months, the bear market of 2018, 2019 and 2020 did not last even close to 59 months, so there could have been a determination at some point to use some of those sold months to buy back in, even in early 2019 (between April 1 and the end of June), there could have had been a decision to use some of those extra sold months (the 59 months in advance) to buy back some BTC.. and then reenable the ability to use the tool again.. since by the way, the idea of cashing out in advance means that you cannot sell any more (or withdraw anymore) BTC for all of those months in advance that you had withdrawn absent either using some of the months to buy back BTC, or if the BTC price goes up above the number of months in advance that you had sold in order that you would be authorized additional months to sell (or withdraw more). 

This chart will be interesting, another TODO!

It will be interesting to see what you come up with, yet I am still thinking that some of the projections could end up overlapping into other areas of future projection, and if we follow through with some kind of a raking page and then maybe somehow formulating a fuck you status projection page (we might need to call it something more user-friendly?), then maybe some of those formulas (or data projection or presumptions of the future) could get incorporated into such a visual.

Please share with me! I am looking for suggestions to improve this, and even create more tools to train my skills

I'm sure that's not the goal, but I was thinking about the possibility of using the data and the graph to also indicate potential moments of purchase.
So in the future, if you think it makes sense, you could include some parameters (to be defined by each user), which, when reached, would send an alert indicating the moment.
ex: If the 200WMA drops to x%, send me an alert indicating purchase.

Keep with the work!

That sounds interesting to send alerts and of course we are mostly thinking in terms of alerting for possible sells (since this is a selling tool), but once such a tool is created, it could be used in either direction (meaning for selling and/or for buying).. so I am not sure how difficult it would be to add some kind of a tool like that, but it does sound interesting as a concept...

On the other hand, wouldn't the user have to provide some kind of data such as e-mail or sms.. and then would we be able to blindly interface with that, without collecting any user data?  I think that we are probably a bit nervous about any kind of collection or retention of user data.. at least at this point.. but of course, with discussions of monetization some times there can develop trade-offs to weigh differently with the passage of time.

User would probably have to create an account with an email or something like that.

The email could even come with a letter with some investment advice from JJG? 

I don't really like the idea of a letter, but maybe a 30-minute or a 60-minute phone call, even though I don't really like the idea of advice, but instead maybe brainstorming because I would likely be suggesting that people can do whatever they like and they are responsible for their own investment choices, but some guys (and maybe gal) might want to discuss in a less public way: "Hey, this is what I was thinking about doing" and maybe I could say whether I understand it or not and make some suggestions that they could consider.. but I hate to really call it advice even though sometimes some people might be willing to just go with what I say rather than really brainstorming their own particulars.. but then that could be part of the idea.. I suppose that if someone were to want to have a discussion, then they might have had already thought through some of their plans in regards to their own portfolio size and their various circumstances and perspectives as in the 9 factors to consider, so maybe they would want to discuss in some kind of a personalized way one or more of the factors. .. but still sounds scary to me in terms of monetization or subscription model and I am not really wanting to create any further of a job for myself.  hahahahahaha

We could outsource it.

JayJuanGee , I saw your PM about changing some more features, I will do that with the new buttons on the chart in a next ( bigger) update!

Sure.  That sounds good, and there are ONLY so many hours in a day.

The site is already very workable in terms of making it way easier to get answers to the sustainable withdrawal questions as compared to trying to figure out which boxes might apply in a spreadsheet.

[bitmover]

May be we can dark the colour of 200-Week MA line on main graph and bold it, so it looks more prominent.

Done!

It will also be good idea if there is zoom in and zoom out functionality in Graphs. Like Graphs are showing data from 2013 to 2023. If you can provide functionality that can allow us to see data for say last 5 years or 1 year only.

I will add buttons of 1M,6M,1Y, 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, ALL. It is in my TODO list.

Done! I decided to make a change and remove the brush chart (the smaller one below).

I think it was taking too long to render and was making the website too heavy.

It should be faster and lighter now!


https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

Tell me what you think!

[UchihaSarada]

Tell me what you think!

I like it!

I see the website description is JJG ....., which I think is not too bad but you can improve it.

JJG, what's this?
It's a good note for what JJG means. I see the reference link to Bitcointalk but a note for JJG is not bad.

Do you think so?

[JayJuanGee]

May be we can dark the colour of 200-Week MA line on main graph and bold it, so it looks more prominent.

Done!

It will also be good idea if there is zoom in and zoom out functionality in Graphs. Like Graphs are showing data from 2013 to 2023. If you can provide functionality that can allow us to see data for say last 5 years or 1 year only.

I will add buttons of 1M,6M,1Y, 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, ALL. It is in my TODO list.

Done! I decided to make a change and remove the brush chart (the smaller one below).

I think it was taking too long to render and was making the website too heavy.

It should be faster and lighter now!

The pages does seem to be faster now, and I like the time periods added and also the check box for log (as opposed to linear, right?).. Although even when I uncheck log, it still shows "log scale" in the description.

After you removed the "brush chart," I am not sure if it is possible to zoom now (into further back for example if I wanted to look at linear from 2010 to 2016, I cannot really see them very well on this chart and sometimes I might want to just pick any 4 year period or even shorter and then zoom in on it).  Previously we could use that "brush chart" feature to zoom in on a particular historical price area.  Could we add a link in order that the brush chart could still be present and allow zooming on another page and even go between linear and logarithmic or maybe in a pop-up window?  I am thinking that sometimes it could be handy to compare various dates or to zoom in on various periods, even if such functionality might not be within the initial loading page.   

https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy
Tell me what you think!

Ok.. Let me give a couple:

I'm thinking that there is some need for a couple points of clarity on the right output side. 

1) From top to bottom.

As a title it says A) "Monthly Authorized Withdrawal" and then as a second title it says B) "Authorized Withdrawal" and then in the greyed output field it says C) "Authorized Withdrawal"

A) is o.k.. 

B) should be removed (because redunant)

and

C) should be amended to say "Authorized BTC Withdrawal"  (will make more clear - user-friendly)


2) Below in the Advanced Withdrawal.. . in the output greyed field where it says:  "Advanced Withdrawal" it should be amended to say "Advanced BTC Withdrawal" (will make more clear - user-friendly)

Tell me what you think!

I like it!

I see the website description is JJG ....., which I think is not too bad but you can improve it.

JJG, what's this?
It's a good note for what JJG means. I see the reference link to Bitcointalk but a note for JJG is not bad.

Do you think so?

Personally, I think that the reference link that Bitmover put in there is enough.. and JJG would likely be a kind of branding or short-hand that need not be further explained, and we may well end up having a few more additional pages that have 1) a JJG rake model (with optional reinvestment projection) and 2) a JJG entry-level fuck you status chart (maybe change the name of that? I am not sure yet). 

In other words, if you see various posts about JJG, then maybe we could put a link to a profile (but why?) or a link to some post that he (I) made (that also seems like a why?), but in the end, there might not be any need for a description that is more detailed than whatever substantive content is presented, since many of us in this forum are not necessarily seeking credibility by real-world credentials but perhaps to maintain some kind of pseudo-anonymous status which many members in the forum operate under such pseudo-nyms, including yours truly.

If you might be asking "what the fuck does JJG know that I don't know?" then, the answer may well be nothing. 

Each of us has various ideas that we have developed over the years, and likely the end goals would be for the ideas to stand on their own and to be somewhat explained in the context of the website or the various posts in this thread or related threads, which concededly there likely are some ways in which the formulas for authorized withdrawal amount and advance withdrawal amount might be made more clear.

[bitmover]

The pages does seem to be faster now, and I like the time periods added and also the check box for log (as opposed to linear, right?).. Although even when I uncheck log, it still shows "log scale" in the description.

After you removed the "brush chart," I am not sure if it is possible to zoom now (into further back for example if I wanted to look at linear from 2010 to 2016, I cannot really see them very well on this chart and sometimes I might want to just pick any 4 year period or even shorter and then zoom in on it).  Previously we could use that "brush chart" feature to zoom in on a particular historical price area.  Could we add a link in order that the brush chart could still be present and allow zooming on another page and even go between linear and logarithmic or maybe in a pop-up window?  I am thinking that sometimes it could be handy to compare various dates or to zoom in on various periods, even if such functionality might not be within the initial loading page.   

I will have to think a little bit about this, because brush and buttons cause some conflicts when together.

Will come in the next update

Tell me what you think!

Ok.. Let me give a couple:

I'm thinking that there is some need for a couple points of clarity on the right output side. 

1) From top to bottom.

As a title it says A) "Monthly Authorized Withdrawal" and then as a second title it says B) "Authorized Withdrawal" and then in the greyed output field it says C) "Authorized Withdrawal"

A) is o.k.. 

B) should be removed (because redunant)

and

C) should be amended to say "Authorized BTC Withdrawal"  (will make more clear - user-friendly)


2) Below in the Advanced Withdrawal.. . in the output greyed field where it says:  "Advanced Withdrawal" it should be amended to say "Advanced BTC Withdrawal" (will make more clear - user-friendly)

Done, and made some UI improvements in the chart! Thanks

[WatChe]

It will also be good idea if there is zoom in and zoom out functionality in Graphs. Like Graphs are showing data from 2013 to 2023. If you can provide functionality that can allow us to see data for say last 5 years or 1 year only.

I will add buttons of 1M,6M,1Y, 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, ALL. It is in my TODO list.

I see them integrated in the project. Looks more good now. Thanks for implementing them.

Will keep an eye on the project and provide more technical feedback to make it more attractive.

[joker_josue]

I don't know this strategy in detail. But, in a quick test I did, I didn't understand until when my BTC would be available, with this strategy. So I think it would be really interesting to have a timeline on this information.

Another interesting approach would be to indicate the USD value that the user wanted to withdraw. This allows you to get an idea of how long the value in your portfolio would last.

Another point that I noticed, although the price chart is possible to apply several temporal filters, I found it a little unnecessary (and perhaps confusing), since the strategy is about the last 200 days. So the graph should only show data from the last 200 days.

Here are my first impressions. I will keep an eye on the project. Thank you for your work.

[criptoevangelista]

Very good, can I make a suggestion?

put something like this, but referring to the past. For example.

If I had used this strategy from 2016 to 2020, how much return would it give? How much could I withdraw? It would be very interesting for those who are not used to this type of investment to see what profitability they would have lost if they had followed this strategy.

Other than that, very good and congratulations to everyone involved.

[bitmover]

I don't know this strategy in detail. But, in a quick test I did, I didn't understand until when my BTC would be available, with this strategy. So I think it would be really interesting to have a timeline on this information.

Yeah, fillippone made a similar suggestion to create a chart showing the portfolio balance over time.

It is in my todo list

Another point that I noticed, although the price chart is possible to apply several temporal filters, I found it a little unnecessary (and perhaps confusing), since the strategy is about the last 200 days. So the graph should only show data from the last 200 days.

It is a 200-week moving average, i.e, the average price of the last 1400 days.

The idea is to make an analysis  based on a series of averages of different selections of the whole price data available.

If I had used this strategy from 2016 to 2020, how much return would it give? How much could I withdraw? It would be very interesting for those who are not used to this type of investment to see what profitability they would have lost if they had followed this strategy.

This is interesting.  This would be similar to the previous suggestion  , but looking back not forward.