Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

so why insist on using the sledge hammer for values under 100 bucks.

if you want to the ways are :

 KYC at an exchange that will allow you to use LN
 Put cash in there.
 Buy BTC
 USE that exchanges LN wallet.

I did a thread that does show it works.

Obviously only do a little of you wealth as this is the workaround for small wealth movements.

Your advice is very important but if someone doesn't have Bitcoin, or someone doesn't invest in Bitcoin then they won't follow your advice. What I learned from your example is that the first thing you need to invest in bitcoin is goodwill, if someone wants to save some bitcoins and later they will make a significant contribution.

That is a strange interpretation Negotiation... it is like you are just making up some category and then trying to plug bitcoin into that category through a kind of analogy (or would it be metaphor?), and then you frequently don't even end up describing bitcoin very well, especially this throwing around the idea of "good will" and suggesting that a person is making "contribution"  to anyone other than himself.

If someone is acting in his own self interest, he does not necessarily need to contribute or to employ good will, even though there is a bit of the design of bitcoin in that if you buy and you hoard (or save) bitcoin, you could be considered as a kind of contributor to the bitcoin system, so bitcoin does allow for certain levels of greed to result in contribution to the network.. and perhaps inspire people who have become rich through their employment of ongoing self-interest, to thereby later be in a position to exercise some good will and charity in terms of ways to give back - that is if they choose to do so, giving back is optional, but if someone gets disproportionately rich there may be inspiration to give back, and the  person might not even consider himself to be a charitable person in the grand scheme of things.

Hey, i want to share with WO this new project I have been working on with @JayJuanGee.

Probably everyone here knows about JJG Sustainable Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy.

We have implement a website version of his Withdrawal Strategy, which serves as a guide to maintenance and liquidation of a Bitcoin portfolio, based on the 200 week moving average.

Take a look, and please give me your feedback and ideas!


https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

Great work!

I have a small suggestion. It would be better if you add a 2 to 3 minute Youtube video about what this site is, how it works and how to use it. This will make the site generic and anyone visiting this site can have an idea of it. Written material is there but people usually prefer videos instead of reading.

Just my few Satoshis.

We already discussed the possibility of a hot chick performing a sustainable withdrawal interpretive dance.

We might have to indicate that we are seeking applicants with youtube, TikTok and/or other potentially relevant experiences (and maybe an in-person interview?  I am not sure yet, who would be doing the interview(s) that are expected from this.).

And, by the way, bitmover has a thread on the topic too..

Click here or there for fun!
ChartBuddy's 24 hour Wall Observation recap

Personally, I like your placing the actual visuals better, so "we" don't have to click nuttin in order to engage in a quickie 24-hour review.

2024 has so many catalysts for Bitcoin 🫣

Are you sure it will have a higher price in 2024? Do you have any technical charts? I haven't seen such technical charts yet, can you help me find such charts?

Just imagine a chart.

3 up 1 down

We are in the second of up.

It is not guaranteed to go up, yet you are free to play it (or not) however you like.

It might be a good idea to get some BTC in case it catches on, including thinking in terms of long term accumulation instead of short-term noise whether it goes up or not in the short term blah blah blah.. maybe consider starting to buy now at whatever you can and maybe on a weekly basis for 4-10 years.. be as aggressive as you can, but not so aggressive as to have to stop accumulating BTC, and then 4-10 years down the road (or maybe more than that) reassess where you are at.. and consider whether and/or how you might change your BTC accumulation strategies.. or if you might have gotten out of BTC accumulation and instead you are in maintenance and/or liquidation stages.

Buying every dip till the D day hahaha.

Sounds like you don't necessarily have very strong hands, and you are merely into BTC for short-term profits.

Hopefully, for your own sake, you don't end up selling too many too early.. and then regretting the matter and becoming bitter like a lot of the others who thought that they were smarter than everyone else and sold too many too soon.

[1714303108]

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[1714303108]

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[boumalo]

One big downward move to clean the overextended bulls then a nice move up 3000$ at a time to 55k$.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[AirtelBuzz]

Opt out of slavery with BTC

X

[JayJuanGee]

So, even though there may be some advantages towards keeping more conservative expectations regarding what the price might do, just in case the parity or whatever (exceeding of parity) might not end up happening, there still can be a number of surprises that end up contributing to greater than expected performance at various points along the way.. And, by the way, of course there is a difference for someone who had just started investing in their 401k in a 4-8 year timeline versus someone who might have had been investing in their 401k for 15-20 years or longer.  Wen Parity?  Yes, it's an interesting question.

I don't think it's true that it's only related to investing in Bitcoin for long term but in many cases, intelligence and intuition become very important. In this case, it should be understood when it is time to invest and when the investment will not be very fast or profit will not be able to play a very important role in the case of the next investment. Although our thinking most of the time wants to make extra profit but it should not be realized because sometimes profit and loss can be encountered. I agree with you that long term plans play a more important role.

You seem to fail to get the gist of the portion of my text that you are citing - which largely if we were talking about how investing in a 401k might compare with investing in bitcoin, then there might be various questions regarding what kinds of assets are offered within the 401k, and then there might be questions about employer matching contributions and then there might be questions about whether anyone who is investing in a 401k might feel that s/he has money left to buy bitcoin directly (which would be outside of the 401k), and if the 401k starts to offer a bitcoin spot ETF, then there could be temptations for the person to invest through the 401k and not to buy bitcoin directly. Of course investing in both can happen, but these days people are generally allowed to invest up to $20k per year into retirement accounts,

...and I had already used the example of a person who earns $100k per year, and anyone earning up to that amount or less may well not want to invest more than 20% into anything outside of the 401k.. so they might be deterred in terms of buying BTC directly - unless they are really informed about BTC, then maybe they would ONLY invest up to the amount of their employers matching and then invest directly into bitcoin in order to have other options that do not have those 401k kinds of restrictions.

MicroStrategy has acquired an additional 14,620 BTC for ~$615.7 million at an average price of $42,110 per #bitcoin. As of 12/26/23,
@MicroStrategy
 now hodls 189,150 $BTC acquired for ~$5.9 billion at an average price of $31,168 per bitcoin.

I fear what would happen to the market when they start selling those BTC, the market may face a huge dump. If I'm not wrong then the MicroStrategy won't be selling their Bitcoin at least for the time when Bitcoin doesn't reaches $1M a Bitcoin.

Their business model is to act as a levered bitcoin play, supported by equity sells and a small cash flow from their other business.
Basically, it is a 2X bitcoin ETF, but with no slippage (which happen in "regular" futures based 2X ETFs, which are typically to run away from).
They will probably de-lever a bit later on.
Ideally, they should de-lever during peaks and lever up during troughs, but imho, Michael Saylor got 'caught up' a little in Dec 2022.
Thankfully, he did not have covenants that might have caused him to sell at a very inopportune moment.
I calculate that at some point in Dec 2022, MSTR probably had almost zero equity: about 2X leverage at 29-30K with the price at $15-16K means that equity was then zero or perilously close to it.

I don't get why he bought so much at basically the current peak though.

Saylor is not price sensative.  He buys at whatever price with however much money he has available.. which is also known as DCA.

Aparently Saylor/MSTR believes that he/his company doesn't have enough BTC.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

Buying every dip till the D day hahaha.

Sounds like you don't necessarily have very strong hands, and you are merely into BTC for short-term profits.

Hopefully, for your own sake, you don't end up selling too many too early.. and then regretting the matter and becoming bitter like a lot of the others who thought that they were smarter than everyone else and sold too many too soon.

From day0 (my first BTC buy), i aways thought it's not the best idea to sell everything on occasional "D-days", but better keep a certain amount of BTC in my wallet(s).
The more years have passed, the more my amount of D-day corn has shrunk, and even good old ex-WO participant mindrust kept one Bitcoin after selling the bottom, afair.
There were lessons learned by speculating on various shitcoins in the short run, in my very psat in the crypto space, but then it's easier to play around with them at some amount than playing around with BTC against USD (and stablecoins) to buy moar later. FYI, over the whole course of shitcoin speculation i was lucky to keep my BTC stash slightly bigger than if i would not have played around. BUY/HODL of BTC just turned out to be the less stressful and sufficiently "profitable" way of investing, for my little selfie,

EDIT: If that males any sense, however. Set myself on painkiller meds, because the flu, which seem to have made me somewhat confused. Had another rapid sars-cov-2 test and it turned out showing a very faint line in the T-portion of the window, but then the test it itself has expired three months ago. Pretty regardless on the other hand, i'm just waiting for the sickness to pass, more or less isolated.


 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[WatChe]

Hey, i want to share with WO this new project I have been working on with @JayJuanGee.

Probably everyone here knows about JJG Sustainable Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy.

We have implement a website version of his Withdrawal Strategy, which serves as a guide to maintenance and liquidation of a Bitcoin portfolio, based on the 200 week moving average.

Take a look, and please give me your feedback and ideas!


https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

Great work!

I have a small suggestion. It would be better if you add a 2 to 3 minute Youtube video about what this site is, how it works and how to use it. This will make the site generic and anyone visiting this site can have an idea of it. Written material is there but people usually prefer videos instead of reading.

Just my few Satoshis.

We already discussed the possibility of a hot chick performing a sustainable withdrawal interpretive dance.

We might have to indicate that we are seeking applicants with youtube, TikTok and/or other potentially relevant experiences (and maybe an in-person interview?  I am not sure yet, who would be doing the interview(s) that are expected from this.).

What I am saying is anyone landing on that website from bitcointalk.org would understand who JJG is and what this site is about. But for an outsider it will be a bit difficult to understand what this page is telling.
May be we can have videos in different languages so that people from different areas can understand this in there native language. Like if you do a video in Urdu/Hindi language, it has target audience of almost over 1 billion. (231 million population of Pakistan and 1.4 billion population of India).

And, by the way, bitmover has a thread on the topic too..

Went there to appreciate the fantastic job. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[DirtyKeyboard]

Click here or there for fun!
ChartBuddy's 24 hour Wall Observation recap

Personally, I like your placing the actual visuals better, so "we" don't have to click nuttin in order to engage in a quickie 24-hour review.

Thanks for the feedback. 

ChartBuddy's 24 hour Wall Observation recap
..

I would like to add that my part in this recap is minimal. 
Credit and merits to ChartBuddy and its AI engineer, Richy_T

[Ambatman]

Sounds like you don't necessarily have very strong hands, and you are merely into BTC for short-term profits.

Hopefully, for your own sake, you don't end up selling too many too early.. and then regretting the matter and becoming bitter like a lot of the others who thought that they were smarter than everyone else and sold too many too soon.

Exactly my hands was shorter than this , I was a victim of the FTX dip bought a significant amount of Btc around Nov 8 last year and the bankruptcy in the market caused a significant dip.
My faith been weak in Bitcoin at that time and hearing that Btc is going to $10K dollar made me sell at a huge loss
Which till date am still regretting
By that time I didn't even know about this forum nor The Use of Bitcoin
I was introduced into Bitcoin as an investment without even knowing it's core value and potential.
Of recent time, when there's a big dip I just come to WO thread and find individuals with higher amounts of Btc still planning to buy more during dip.
Those actions have really helped me that I bought Btc around 26K and held till  35K was expecting a significant correction so sold half and used the profit(not capital) to get myself something good.
I can't just hold without enjoying it once in a while
Life is shorter than its given credit for.
Where was I yes, it didn't do the expected correction and has skyrocket to $43K
If I continue like this I might have to buy at $100K so felt it would be better to restart my DCA.

The D day to me is when it creates another ATH, don't want to buy at a price that would be at a negative zone in a year or 2.

I  don't plan on selling anytime soon that's why I prefer transferring to my blue wallet. If I do keep in CEX is easier for me to sell some portions  in profit but never in loss.

But would take your advice to heart never selling more than 50%. I hate trading trust me. The losses have made from it has only been mitigated of recent by me holding.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

Sounds like you don't necessarily have very strong hands, and you are merely into BTC for short-term profits.

Hopefully, for your own sake, you don't end up selling too many too early.. and then regretting the matter and becoming bitter like a lot of the others who thought that they were smarter than everyone else and sold too many too soon.

Exactly my hands was shorter than this , I was a victim of the FTX dip bought a significant amount of Btc around Nov 8 last year and the bankruptcy in the market caused a significant dip.
My faith been weak in Bitcoin at that time and hearing that Btc is going to $10K dollar made me sell at a huge loss
Which till date am still regretting
By that time I didn't even know about this forum nor The Use of Bitcoin
I was introduced into Bitcoin as an investment without even knowing it's core value and potential.
Of recent time, when there's a big dip I just come to WO thread and find individuals with higher amounts of Btc still planning to buy more during dip.
Those actions have really helped me that I bought Btc around 26K and held till  35K was expecting a significant correction so sold half and used the profit(not capital) to get myself something good.
I can't just hold without enjoying it once in a while
Life is shorter than its given credit for.
Where was I yes, it didn't do the expected correction and has skyrocket to $43K
If I continue like this I might have to buy at $100K so felt it would be better to restart my DCA.

The D day to me is when it creates another ATH, don't want to buy at a price that would be at a negative zone in a year or 2.

I  don't plan on selling anytime soon that's why I prefer transferring to my blue wallet. If I do keep in CEX is easier for me to sell some portions  in profit but never in loss.

But would take your advice to heart never selling more than 50%. I hate trading trust me. The losses have made from it has only been mitigated of recent by me holding.

That's the problem with hearsay, FUD and "influencers". The reason behind this is fear, generally by lack of confidence.
I bought some amount of BTC at $67k. Did i feel uncomfortable when the "number goes down" days (weeks, months...) came, in this case a few days later?
Yes, a bit, but did i think about selling at a loss to "get some of my wealth back"? No. Why? Because of confidence in market cycles, driven by halvenings and known price dynamics. I'm still at loss with that position, but hey, i am a hodler, so i buy when i can. I can think about selling later, when i probably need to, and at thet point i will have a couple of positions i got into at a relatively much lower price. Look at the MA200, which is like "the mother of zooming out".

Of course, i could have "panic" sold said position in the bear market, rebuy about 2-3 times as much in Bitcoin after the next cycle bottom was confirmed, but in my special situation, this would have been a taxable event. Still, 1.5 to 2 times as much then, but that would have been not worth it imo, because in the long run, doesn't really matter much when compared to my exisiting, untaxable positions (it's my complicated tax law at fault, if you can't follow). So better buy moar on the way down, i thought, and actually made up most of the "loss". Sure, i could sell into a stablecoin, which would save me from tax law, but i don't really trust into stablecoins, so there is that (you remember Tether FUD?).

Anyway, instead of planning to sell a part at future (maybe) ATH for either profit or re-investment in bearish times of the cycles, which are not guaranteed, i started aiming for both. I will have to decide how much i actually pay out from these future stablecoin positions and how much to keep for re-buys, but i'm humble and i don't feel any need to spend money for things i don't really need (or believe to need, but don't actually need). Having a lambo (or cybertruck) is fine, but facing the service and fuel cost for such car, it doesnt seem to be too desireable.
Much of that humbleness is originating from older (or younger?) times when i was in debt and i haf to save and work every penny off to get out of it within a couple of years. Not knowing the difference between what i needed and what i wanted was the reason for growing my debts in the first place, and i really hate to repeat mistakes and lie to myself.
I could go on, but i have to stop it here, i think, but everybody here can read up more details about my past life happenings within the scope of this thread.

EDIT: In short: You can only be cool with the up/downs in the market when you trust in Bitcoin. Trust gives you the power to buy and hold, no matter if Bitcoin goes to $10k or not, it should get higher than where it fell down from, later. 4 years are almost nothing, in hindsight.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com