Bitcoin Forum

Most people here have deluded themselves into thinking btc is going to skyrocket sue to "imminent mass adoption!"  Clearly this is not the case, and lots of former bulls are now facing the facts and turning bearish.  One of the ways people tell themselves they are right is saying anyone who sells is a "weak hand."  Funny because you should be calling them "smart hands."

I'll admit I had high hopes for btc, but the last bubble has no reason to repeat itself: There's no new money coming in from anywhere in the world, adoption by merchants just essentially creates lots of sell pressure, and the media is doing its job scaring people away from btc by associating it with illegal activity.

Also, what happens if another exchange (maybe btc-e??) goes down.  BTC couldnt handle that.

Good luck to holders though.

So is your suggestion to sell all the  bitcoin now ? I think this is not the real solution ;) .   The price will  raise  (  I think)  in the next block reward halving (2016) .

I'm not trying to give anyone trading advice, but people here seem to think calling others "weak hands" somehow makes it ok that they are losing money if they are holding btc.  Obviously it has potential to rise, but there is no logical reason it would be soon.

It won't raise! The KNOWLEDGE of halving is weighted in to the current price already. Don't you know anything about the markets?

Drop your false hope! At present, this market requires approximately $1.8 million USD EVERY DAY to maintain price levels. 3,600 coins are being minted every day, and there is not even demand for the ones out there now! The net halving will not happen until late 2016, at least. There are too many coins and not enough people who want them!

Just look around here, the same 2 or 3 dozen bulls and a few bears every single day. This is the premier bitcoin forum, and nobody even cares!

Hope is for slobs and losers who refuse to work a normal job and want to get rich on "quick schemes".

Wrong section. Or are you asshole just posting in Speculation to gain more attention like a dumb facebook attention crackwhore?

Anger won't make the price go up.
Anger won't make you less ashamed in front of your family for the stupid son they have.

k!!!!!!!1

weak hands sell now

Weak hands is not a bitcoin term, it happens in all sorts of investing.

You only lose when you sell for less than you paid.

Nobody has ever lost money by holding.

Are you literally stupid?

I mean literally, like IQ under 90?

Because you do realise what unrealised losses are?

Or not?

How dumb are you?

Please stop with this already. It's an unrealized loss, which doesn't make it any less real.

It is incredible how many people on this forum have convinced themselves that this is the case.

Fundamentally, the value of the assets we hold is the amount of utility they can provide, in terms of consumption goods.
Consumer price inflation measures the buying power of fiat.
The current BTC/USD price, adjusted for consumer price inflation (which is tiny compared to BTC/USD volatility), tells you the buying power of BTC.
That buying power has crashed.
You definitely have made a loss, even if you haven't actually sold.

Like I said in the op, people defending holding are delusional.  Yes your losses this year are real, but good luck if you are continuing to "strong handedly" take your losses  ;D

Another weak hand on ignore :)

Strong hand to the financial grave.

Ignoring people is like ostrich putting head in sand.

Can't see, can't hear, means it's not there right?

Grow up, what are you 12?

LOL

No, I haven't made a loss. I did however make a profit when I held my $68 coins after they crashed from $266 all the way down to $50, didn't panic, sold a few for $155 on a "dead cat" bounce, and bought back in at $97, and held when they crashed down to $66.

Good thing I didn't sell and "realize" a loss.

Sometimes I think that around here common sense is as rare as a bear with a 3-digit IQ.

Sigh.

why not say that you bought your coins at $0.01? so you can tell your same double profit good story when bitcoin hit $0.02 later

I have often marvelled at the stupidity of Dumbotoronto.

It is like the level of intelligence behind the entity posting as Jimbotoronto, is some kind of AI bot, randomly blurting out vague bulltard cliches that can be interpreted to fit practically every different scenario, but of course, shed light or offer insight on none.

If I am wrong, and JimboToronto is a real person, then perhaps his stupidity is worthy of scientific research. Perhaps he is an example of a genetic throwback from the pre Homo-Sapiens era of our evolutionary path?

This claim is completely false, though I am currently holding. See my chart here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=807524.msg9075582#msg9075582

Really how so sure? What price did I buy?

"Weak Hands" are looking like "Smart Hands" each day that passes the way things are going.

By the way the "Calling the bottom at 350" threads are now outdated, lets get some more "Calling the bottom at 300" threads  going until Monday.

unrealized... how do you know that it won't go up again? magic ass ball? that thing is true, but maybe the sentence is not completed, i repeat it here

until there is a chance to go up again, you won't lose anything if you just hold and don't sell for less than you paid


read above and tell me how much is your QI now, i think is lower than 90, probably the same number without the zero

Thank you. Clearly the amount of price manipulation dine by mt gox has still not been priced in. I think prices will continue to sink diwn to around $200 or more by the end of the year. There is just absolutely no demand for btc at all. Only in the minds of the bulls in this forum. I dont think overall usage is up either. Yes more wallets are in existance, but coinbase creates a new ine for you like every week or so automatically. Using the "more wallets in existance" is a very bad way to track usage. I think all the new metchanys have done is get some holders to spend some btc, while not managing ti attract any new interest by the general public

That didn't answer my question.

I am normally pretty bullish when it comes to BTC, because I believe in the technology but I totally follow what jcoin200 is saying.
Most miners today are running negative numbers, and they need to sell their coins to pay for operation costs.
I just don't see how the bitcoin ecosystem can get enough new buyers to pressure the price up.
Someone have to buy all the bitcoins that the miners are dumping, and if there is not enough buyers, well, the price will continue go down.

That halving has been priced in for years. It's one of the reasons BTC might stay in the lofty heights of the double digit territory until November, when it probably enters the single digits and the final capitulation.

New buyers aren't going to be attracted for a while. They're going to see the price tanking, and unless they're "True Believers", they won't be buying in until the price crash stops, whatever number that may be.

Totally agree to this.
The price will stabilize at some point (have no idea where).
I will still continue using bitcoins though since the they are convenient for trading, but will properly start converting a little more between fait and bitcoin, at least that is super easy nowadays, so not really a problem.

A few things about this post:

1)  If you've been holding in a down market, then two bad things have happened to you.  First, you've lost purchasing power.  Second, you haven't even realized your loss so that you can write it off on your taxes this year.  It's a really bad habit to get into to try to pull all sorts of mental gymnastics to try to convince yourself that you're a good investor and you're making money when your position is continually losing ground.

2)  Saying "how do you know it won't go up again?" is a question that holds as much weight as "how do you know it won't keep going down?"  It means nothing.   There is no information to pull from it that can help you to make a rational decision.  Furthermore, there are no magic rules of investing that dictate an investment must appreciate after significant periods of depreciation.  

3)  This is more of a personal observation, but I really think that a lot of people's investment decisions are heavily influenced by discussions on this forum, and not in a good way.  I see a lot of permabulls and permabears, but it's shockingly uncommon to read posts that aren't emotionally loaded and don't veer to one extreme or the other.  For a lot of people, there is no middle ground.

4) "Until there is a chance to go up again..."?  What the hell?   I don't even know where to begin with this. *Every* moment is a chance for BTC to up again.  Where have you been the past 10-11 months?  Bitcoin isn't dropping in price due to chance, just as Bitcoin didn't shoot past $1000 USD by chance.  Focus on *real* things.  Instead of thinking about the "chance" that BTC might go up again, maybe you should first ask yourself why you aren't buying all the BTC you can right now.   It might be a good starting place as it may provide insight as to why everyone else isn't out buying up all the BTC.

5)  Here's a thought experiment for you:  How about you sell all of your belongings for BTC and hold them indefinitely?  According to your logic, this will preserve your wealth for infinite time (as long as you don't sell).  Ingenious, right?  ::)

Very good point. The last bubble, from about $120 to $1100, was driven by the use of Bitcoin in China to get around China's exchange controls. Once the People's Bank of China stopped that, the price started back down.

Probably not.  Did you read the Willy Report?

I agree and I don't think anyone will be able to predict the bottom anyway, at this stage. This "bubble deflation" is taking too long to be driven only by speculative factors and adoption achievements can't even reverse the trend until that said bottom. Hopefully not under $200 but it's still a good price for those who got it early I guess.

I still think "over mining" is playing a role in the trend downward over the last couple of months. It will continue until they fall short and stop mining, but then nobody can predict if the reversal will happen as it depends on the future miners' behavior etc.

I think Sevvero is really referencing himself here. Stop projecting.

They are only rumors.

But chinese exchanges have the biggest volumes, even now

It's not a rumor that there were trading bots buying more than a half-million BTC continually over the course of a few months.  That's concrete.

2016. 2016. 2016. We're in 2014. Everyone will have plenty of time to buy back in before 2016, so why mindlessly hodl while Bitcoin is crashing?

I love cryptocurrencies. I think they will succeed big time. Decentralized digital currency is here to stay. However, we're currently in the midst of a crash. People who convert to fiat will be able to buy back more bitcoin during the next rise, whenever that rise happens. As someone who is looking to maximize the number of bitcoins I own, the last thing I would be doing right now is hodling. In fact, I'm shorting, so that when bitcoin rises again, I can not only buy more coins because they're cheaper, but also buy more coins because I have more money.

I agree. I think the technology behind btc is incredible, but the price right now is showing that it was just manipulated to the ath last winter. Still no demand for it, and definitely no "imminent mass adoption" any time soon. Yes the mainstream media may unfairly connect btc with drug trade, isis (clearly anti btc propaganda), etc, but its scaring off people and giving btc a bad rep. Oh well, I think those saying btc will drop to the 100-200 level and trade in that level for quite somr time are right

I like this thread.  It is a great positive indicator...the emotions, the ad hominem attacks, so many people so certain of their opinion that they feel justified in saying things about others on an anonymous forum that they would not say in person. 

Still waiting, by the way, for somebody to tell me about the cup of coffee they bought with unrealized gains.  They aren't actual gains.  Unrealized losses mean that one did not buy at the very bottom.  Frankly, most people don't manage to pull off that feat of buying at the bottom.  Stuff your fiat in a mattress if you don't want unrealized losses.

funny how emotional people become; instead of buying continuously to cost average they buy high and then start whining.

look what bears like fallling do: talk BTC down and invest continously, every month a fixed dollar amount - that way you average down  ;)

say you invest $100 per month. if price is high you buy less coins, if price is low you buy more coins, so you have more cheap coins than expensive coins, voila, the miracle of cost averaging

This post is so wrong it's not even funny.

All you need to do is look at Affymax inc. It's a company that started trading at $30.00 eight years ago. Now its shares are worth $0.14! It's basically worthless and will probably go bankrupt soon. Despite all that, you're telling me that the people who held that company's stocks didn't lose money because they didn't sell?

Read a finance book, man. You need it.

 

when the bears come out in numbers I buy,

weak hands is the antonym of bagholder.

I would not sell at any price as I am in BTC forever, its not going back to FIAT.

People who use the terms "weak hands" and "sheeple":

- Worried or panicking as they look at their profit dwindle or are already deep underwater.  Someone did buy bitcoins at over US$1100 within the last year


People who go on the Speculation forum to chastise others for being idiot investors and gloating in bitcoin going to zero:

- Maybe owned a few bitcoins but sold far too early, didn't buy them cheap and missed out on massive easy profits.  They feel terrible now so will do everything to spoil the show for anyone who did get lucky and win the speculation game.

"Weak hands" imply holders who sell at the wrong time. Due to the fact that different people trade according to different time horizons (fractals), nobody can really say whether the people currently selling have "weak hands" or not.

I am in it for the long term and I don't mind losing all of my BTC holdings so I am not selling. I have no problems with people selling now if they feel that it is in their best interests to do so. Personally, I'd rather not trade in and out between BTC and fiat because I don't have the time to do so and frankly I know that can't predict the market with the degree of accuracy that some people here think they can.

I think i prefer it hugely when the heroes and legendarys post on this forum.

i'm in fact all in with btc(well not totally, i still have my house lol), i still think that in a market like this until you don't sell you can't lose, because the chance to see a pump again are high enough

you don't need a wall of text to explain this, it's so simple, and for your last sentence, i can just reply with "don't invest more than you can afford and bla bla", this doesn't make my point less valid at all

that quote is just misleading, it should be "until the coin isn't dead if you don't sell you don't lose anything", no one said that in that quote is implied that the coin can't die

You havent read the code have you? Try with day 0.3.x u will sing i love u long time

If you can afford to do so and don't mind losing your investment, then that's fine.   But your reply, "Don't invest more than you can afford and bla bla," is irrelevant to the issue of gain or loss.  The question is whether holding in a down market yields a loss, not whether you're okay with it.

I think you're incorrect in that my last point doesn't make yours less valid.  It does, because it's the exact same action you took to reach your current position, only to an extreme degree.  

But seriously, dude, come on.   Even though unrealized gains/losses function the same way in stock trading, bitcoins are currency!  How are you going to sit there and tell me you haven't lost anything when you're holding money that's depreciating in value before your own eyes?!

Hmm thanks for being my sentiment gauge
Still not in full blown depression yet but getting closer
Mmm perhaps around 280

well if you prefer i can tell you that i have less now because bitcoin declined , but it doesn't mean that i need to panic sell because of that, until i believe in it and i'm willing to hold my "lose" has a chance to come back

you know... "It's not dead until it's really dead"

All of that's fine, and I agree, it's just not what the issue originally was.  Just don't make the mistake of thinking that holding somehow makes you immune to changes in the price-per-unit of your investment.

The last hope is wall street money.

If someone can convince a few pension fund managers to invest in bitcoin, the rest will follow suit.

The last hope for what? Bitcoin works. More investors are just people on the sidelines.

Weak hands are simply those with a higher buy-in price and who cut their losses when it drops too far. So the guy who bought at $800 would be a weak hand. Those who bought sub $100 are strong hands.

Don't take it personally, it is what it is.

You doomsters are pathetic. You pretend to warn or help. But just imagine a situation where everyone would heed your advice. BTC (or anything else you point your well meant advice to) would drop to zero without any further deal. So if you have perfect success, all your post did was cause instant collapse on the commodity or security of your concern.

The fact of the matter is that everything is valuable only because people believe it to be. Those who believe it are typically the strong hands, the others are the weak hands. Therefore I will keep using these terms.

actually it's exactly the issue because...

it make me kinda immune if the coin survive and go up, which is what i believe; we continuously base our life on some assumptions, this is why life is a gamble itself

it's not absolutely immue, i could agree, but it is certainly relative

You really don't understand the principals behind speculation one damn bit do you? Reading your posts is like watching a seven year old try and deliver a college lecture...its terribly cute and funny, but part of you still wants to kill the person that let you stand at the podium.

ok. how about structurally deficient hands instead? is this term scientific enough for ya?

Here's the thing: I think you're smart enough that you do understand unrealized gains and losses, but to me it seems that you are (likely without realizing it) sugar coating the issue by whatever means possible, and it does your analysis a disservice.

First, let me say that I truly do not care whether you buy or sell, and in fact I do hope you make good, profitable trading decisions for yourself.  All I'm suggesting is that you look at the way you're approaching the issue.

In your last post, you said, "It makes me kinda immune" and also "it's not absolutely immune" and also "certainly relative."  And then, you bring up assumptions as if to say that you are forced between two assumptions, that either the price will continue to fall, or it will go up.  And, since either is an unknown and it is an assumption, you feel comfortable in your position because for all you know it's just as good as the other one.

But what you're ignoring are the things that are knowable right now and that aren't assumptions.  It's not a matter of perspective what unrealized gains and losses mean for your total and liquid assets.  There is no ambiguity, only raw numbers.

I think you also know this too, but it just seems to me you're sacrificing what you know for what you don't.

Its always a buy and sell, and sell once the word gets out.

so you think people who have unrealized losses, and solidify them based on fear that we will not ever recover from this obviously manipulation driven crash, are smart? i suppose if they sold in order to get more coins, yeah. but thats not what you're suggesting. you're implying bitcoin is dead and over with and everyone should get out. forgive us if we don't have the shortsightedness to guide our decisions that you utilize.

also, where do you get everyone thinks it will skyrocket "soon". "theres no reason for it to go up soon". why does it have to be soon? what makes you think people holding don't have a target date of 3-5 years? or more?

Weak hands: TA traders, gamblers -> they have no problem to sell all bitcoins, they do not need understand Bitcoin, they trade on leverage, they are happy trading(b/c they know TA, EV) to make profit. Some of them are successful like Sxxxx <sarcasm>he makes 2x more than B&H</sarcasm> and some less successful  like MatTheCat.

Bitcoin strong hands: hodlers, fanatics believer -> they are rather sinking with the ship than do not have bitcoin or accept that bitcoin will die. They love bitcoin and believe they will be rich and/or get freedom.

Stop telling people what to do. Lol it is pointless.

Haha, I'm with you freedom. Some real grumps in here.

http://33.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_ly8qlnP0JU1rnlsjeo1_500.gif

OP is weak hand, period

3 signs of weak hands:

1. Use fiat money to measure value
2. Do not understand fundamentals
3. Emotional, buy high and sell low

And No.3 is almost a sure sign of weak hands

Only weak hands don't weak hands.

i think you are not following me correctly

i'm not saying that there isn't a possibility that bitcoin won't die, i'm just saying that for now this possibility is zero, therefore holding is the best strategy, this imply that unti you don't sell at loss, you are not losing everything

there aren't things like "100% holding is bad or 100% selling is bad", you should just follow what you believe in a market like this

You're a MASSIVE fail. How the fuck did you even figure out how to get on the internet?? Weak hands they are! No other words to call them. Smart hands are buying and holding. Most people in the world think about long term. "Where am I going to be in" 5 years, 10 years, 20 years. The smart hands are those people who think big and long. You're a weak hand looking for a quick buck. And like so many before you and many to come the bitcoin game slaughtered you.

So sad... Maybe you should give Forex a go at it.

#ToTheMoon

Well, not even close, but good try!  Smart hands made money on the up swings, like I did, and got out at the signs of trouble, like I did.

Never did I say btc was going away, but short term there is no indications at all of price increase.

And yeah I guess I wasn't thinking long term when I got a college degree, invested in real estate...jeez I should just beg you for advice...oh wait your just another idiot whos upset they are losing more money, and you try to make yourself feel better by saying your a strong hand. 

How does holding an asset during a decline in its real purchasing power terms by 70% represent having a 'strong' hand?
All it represents is losing money.
A 'clever' hand would have sold up at the beginning of the year, and would now be buying up BTC.
A 'clever' hand would have three times more BTC than a 'strong' hand.
Three times!
Do you mean 'strong' as in 'dense'?

Clearly people seem to think they are superior to others on here if they hold, instead of getting out and waiting for the real rock bottom to hit, which is what the real smart money would be doing.  Also waiting for any signs of life, and waiting for fraudulent trading activities to be uncovered.  There is too much still going on to not think btc can crash further down to $100 or less.  Then smart money will come in when the dust has settled.

If you notice, most users on speculators section are fairly  new accounts and probably do not know what they are doing.

Strong as in have money to live on to be able to afford not to gamble. Strong as in does not care much about immediate prices, has many years long outlook, considers everything smaller as noise.

PS Granted, I'm not strong enough myself since I sell a little at peaks and buy at bottoms, but the ultimate goal is to reduce that gambling percentage of holdings to zero. I now gamble with about 20%. More may be acceptable if you don't have much. Selling all then buying all seems plain crazy to me. It can maximize profit, sure; it can also lead to losing all, as in: exchange goes away, exchange ratio goes against you several times, moving large amounts of coins you attract unwanted attention and get hacked, etc.

I hope you now do understand a little better, what is, actually, clever. Gambling is fun, but far from clever.

As for weak hands, these are hands which sell or buy on emotion, while being scared or greedy. They always lose.

Now you're advocating attempting to catch a knife? Brilliant...

If you want to be clever and try to time the market, more power to you. One of the arguments for dollar cost averaging and long term holding is that you can spend your time on other things instead of having to pay so much attention to the short term price.

It's cult behavior, unfortunately.  You're either in or out, and if you're out, you're a scumbag.  But the reality is that those "weak hands" made a killing selling when the selling was good.  So, I'd like to take a moment and thank all the "strong hands" out there.  ;D

Also, who would have thought that as we near the conclusion of 2014, BTC would be hovering around $300 USD?

That doesn't sound at all like what he's advocating.  I think he's advocating for letting the knife fall and watching to see how it lands first.

Granted, that is about the only thing constant about bitcoin price - it always does what nobody expects it to. Nobody expected it will go over $100 in 2013, it wasn't even discussed other than when joking. The question was - will it break the $32 ath and if yes, how far can it go, maybe 50? Everybody expected a slide from 32 to stop at 10 or around there, too, and nobody ever saw $2 coming (apart from retards, who were present then as well, and cried "zero").

So yeah, always fascinating to observe what it'll do next.

Exactly.  I don't think the fallout from the gox collapse has fully played out yet in terms of price drop.  And why should big time investors come in when the largest btc exchange in the world went down?  Too many other hacks and security concerns I think are scaring people away.  I think things are very fragile right now, and the potential for bad news (dropping price) greatly outweighs any chance for price increase in the near future.  If btc shows some signs of life, then I'll get back in.

Ohh wow.. A college degree? I mean... Really?? LOL...

BTW.. I bought my first btc at < $15 and mined blocks of BTC when it was cheap.

I'll never lose a penny on crypto.

Yes, providing massive returns already, and benefits, and will for the rest of my life.  

Is your precious btc going to do the same?  Wait I'll answer that myself, no.

Hahahaha, like I said your just another internet idiot.  If you didnt sell at the top, the ATH means nothing and your returns are diminishing by the day.  It wont be back there without massive gox like fraud and manipulation.  But good luck, maybe more education would have benefited you.

I suppose selling an asset 70% off its all-time-high means you have to rationalise any future positive price action as fraud or manipulation.

Ironic since it is fairly clear that the price is where it is now exactly due to overt manipulation.

Meanwhile VC funding continues to pour into bitcoin unabated and there is enough latent demand in the market to swallow 30,000 coins in 24 hours at this price level.

Yes, there is VC money coming into the infrastructure.

And as for manipulation, I think this recent drop is more like a return to reality.  BTC needs to be converted by miners more and more to cover investments, and there are more security concerns every day.  Even a fairly well known crypto site (cryptothrift) just had a security breach resulting in the loss of 15BTC.  Minor, yes, but these are happening daily.

Ugh hello it's 2014 already, a year when nobody loses bitcoin to hackers any longer. Multisig, it's like a 2FA that everybody uses for online services, only for accessing coins. 2 keys, zero hacker problems.

All this post does is reinforce how lucky you are.  You're laughing at someone who invested in a college degree?  Do you understand how absurd this sounds?  You aren't a genius for getting in under $15.  I should know.  I was there.  

 

Um...college graduates usually tend to know the difference between your and you're...


College level graduate who can't make it out of 3rd grade grammar = not high on credibility list...  ;)


#justsayin

That said, while investing in a college degree is nice at face value, it also depends on the major. Fine Arts major probably isn't quite as impressive as...Neurosciences Major. And in the economy today, even college graduates can't always get good jobs.

You're kidding right? Because I don't proofread forum posts I lost credibility????????? Youre just graspibg at straws now. You also better ignore 99% of people on here if you can't handle a simple mistyped word.

Ha not a liberal arts degree, an engineering degree, had no problem landing a job. I can see you're just another one who wants to take out their frustration on those who knew when to get oiy

Halving by itself will not save bitcoin, it will only matter if there is demand.

But I don't think we will have to wait that long before bitcoin recovers anyway.

Yes, we have had some rough months, but so what, magic internet money will survive.