New Diff thread Mar 8 to Mar 22.

[philipma1957]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645

shows a drop to +0.44%


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  has us at +1.51%

1234 blocks to go  price is drifting down to 278 usd

I think  that   the run at 300 usd may be over for a while.  Which could help diff keep low.

[adaseb]

I think today will be a -20% day due to all these top 3 pools getting DDOS.

Had to join a new pool today because all my failover were dead.

[philipma1957]

I think today will be a -20% day due to all these top 3 pools getting DDOS.

Had to join a new pool today because all my failover were dead.

this is a good point.  One of the things I like about BTC is endless unexpected variations turn up.  This is an other reason that the sp20e is the gold standard of gear.  Nice and easy to list 8 different pools to mine at.

[philipma1957]

I think today will be a -20% day due to all these top 3 pools getting DDOS.

Had to join a new pool today because all my failover were dead.

this is a good point.  One of the things I like about BTC is endless unexpected variations turn up.  This is an other reason that the sp20e is the gold standard of gear.  Nice and easy to list 8 different pools to mine at.

the google  charts show a drop

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645


to -1.02 percentage   that is a winner for my range if it stays put.  And serious coin would get the .1btc how about that.

Hey serious you have a routing interest !!   maybe he is doing the ddos himself LOL

[SimplisticStu]

With the DDOS attacks do you think there's people desperately trying to keep the difficulty down?

[A4Tech]

I hope that this time i won ..

[notlist3d]

With the DDOS attacks do you think there's people desperately trying to keep the difficulty down?

With backup pools I do not see this as much of a factor in difficulty.  At this point everyone should have fail over pool's.

I think it shows a bad trend seeing multiple get attacked for not paying "ransoms".  It is more of a pain and costs the pool money to fix, then it costs the miner.

I know I personally have not had a time where my 3 pools all are down.

[philipma1957]

With the DDOS attacks do you think there's people desperately trying to keep the difficulty down?

With backup pools I do not see this as much of a factor in difficulty.  At this point everyone should have fail over pool's.

I think it shows a bad trend seeing multiple get attacked for not paying "ransoms".  It is more of a pain and costs the pool money to fix, then it costs the miner.

I know I personally have not had a time where my 3 pools all are down.

 I think the s-5 can be ssh'd into 4 or 5 pools.

I think the avalon 4.1 can do 4 or 5 pools.

These attacks hurt Asic miner prisma + tube owners

I think a rocker miner is only 2 pool choice.

Sp20e have lots of pool choices.

You can also have the issue that rented hash gets fully lost.  see posts here.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=559011.msg10738471#msg10738471

this cost me about 0.03-0.04 btc but rentals were small.   be busy for 4 hours when you are renting 500th for a day and find you lost a whole btc in hash due to ddos attacks.

[rikkie]

I guess - 2.26% to -2.50% (if it is not too late)

It is possible that whoever is DDoS'ing the various pools is doing so at more then one pool at a time and as a result both the primary and the backup are affected. Also just because there is the option to set more then one backup does not mean that the owner of a miner will set more then one backup (or set one at all as we say the other week when ghash was DDoS'ed).

I think if these kinds of attacks last long enough it will move mining even further away from pool mining into more centralized corporate farm mining. When a pool is successfully DDoS'ed they effectively shut down and stop working. However a corporate mining farm can do something as simple as switch to a backup internet connection if their node starts getting DDoS'ed

[philipma1957]

OFFICIAL RULES FOR THE MOST ACCURATE GUESS REWARD

are here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=964922.msg10550525#msg10550525
(in other words, nothing has changed since the previous cycle except there is of course a new deadline).

Deadline is 02:00 (2 AM) UTC March 15th, 2015

2 am UTC time is 10 pm eastern standard time  it is 6:20 pm so  under 4 hours left.

New list

rikkie              - 2.26% to -2.50%
mirjangka        -2.01 to  -2.25%
TheAnalogKid   -1.76 to -2.00%
thedreamer      -1.51 to -1.75%
alh                  -1.26 to -1.50%
philipma1957  -1.01 to  -1.25%
Mikestang        -0.76 to -1.00%
bitcoin4eva      -0.51 to -0.75%
MegaFall         -0.26  to -0.50%
Kexkey            -0.01 to -0.25%
A4Tech                    0.00----------------bonus number with a 0.2 payout
Jamphone       +0.01 to +0.25%
davejh            +0.26 to +0.50%
tarmi              +0.51 to +0.75%
simplisticStu    +0.76 to +1.00%
Quickseller       +1.01 to +1.25%
RedhatCat       +1.26 to +1.50%
notlist3d         +1.51 to +1.75%
valkir              +1.76 to +2.00% -------- corrected from 1.75 to 2.00
jmumich          +2.01 to +2.25%
freedomno1      +2.26 to + 2.50%
frankenmint       +2.51 to +2.75%
edonkey           +2.76 to +3.00%
armedmilitia    +3.01 to +3.25
tertius993        +3.26 to +3.50
SunnyIgor         +3.51 to +3.75%
tlhIlwI              +3.76 to +4.00%
HerbPean          +4.01 to +4.25%
Korbman           +4.26 to +4.50%
mavericklm        +4.51 to +4.75%
zebedee             +4.76 to +5.00%
buyandhold      +5.01 to +5.25%
RoadStress       +5.26 to +5.50%


ezeminer        +7.76 to +8.00%



Slots are really filling in  

5.51 to 7.75  I think that is 9 different ranges.


+5.51 to +5.75
+5.76 to + 6.00
+ 6.01  to +6.25
+6.26 to + 6.50
+6.51 to + 6.75
+6.76 to +7.00
+7.01 to + 7.25
+7.26 to + 7.50
+7.51 to + 7.75

then
all over 8

+8.01 to + 8.25  and all range over

negative open:


all lower then -2.51

-2.51 to -2.76 and on and on





 I think this is up to date.

 


Xian01  still looking for a new pick

I am going to pencil Xian01 in as  something at the last minute rather then leave him out.

[west420]

Since a final list has not yet been made, I would consider guessing a difficulty decline of -2.51 to -2.75%

The whole DDOS issue is likely going to cause miners to effectively go offline that based on economics should not be offline

[suchmoon]

FINAL LIST
New entries no longer eligible for the reward but don't let that stop you from embarrassing yourself with further guesses  

Please take a minute to find your name in the list and verify if your numbers are accurate. Thank you.

west420 -2.51 to -2.75%
rikkie -2.26% to -2.50%
mirjangka -2.01% to -2.25%
TheAnalogKid -1.76% to -2.00%
thedreamer -1.51% to -1.75%
alh -1.26% to -1.50%
philipma1957  -1.01% to  -1.25%
Mikestang -0.76% to -1.00%
bitcoin4eva -0.51% to -0.75%
MegaFall -0.26% to -0.50%
Kexkey -0.01% to -0.25%
A4Tech 0.00% -------- DOUBLE REWARD
Jamphone +0.01% to +0.25%
davejh +0.26% to +0.50%
tarmi +0.51% to +0.75%
SimplisticStu +0.76% to +1.00%
Quickseller +1.01% to +1.25%
RedhatCAT +1.26% to +1.50%
notlist3d +1.51% to +1.75%
valkir +1.76% to +2.00%
jmumich +2.01% to +2.25%
freedomno1 +2.26% to +2.50%
frankenmint +2.51% to +2.75%
edonkey's cat +2.76% to +3.00%
armedmilitia +3.01% to +3.25%
tertius993 +3.26% to +3.50%
SunnyIgor +3.51% to +3.75%
tlhIlwI +3.76% to +4.00%
HerbPean +4.01% to +4.25%
Korbman +4.26% to +4.50%
mavericklm +4.51% to +4.75%
zebedee +4.76% to +5.00%
buyandhold +5.01% to +5.25%
RoadStress +5.26% to +5.50%
--- gap -- let's put Xian01 at +5.51% to +5.75%
ezeminer +7.76% to +8.00%

[philipma1957]

Since a final list has not yet been made, I would consider guessing a difficulty decline of -2.51 to -2.75%

The whole DDOS issue is likely going to cause miners to effectively go offline that based on economics should not be offline

this may turn out to be the best pick yet

real time google is -0.98%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  is +0.78% price is 276 usd


Bitcoin Difficulty:   47,427,554,951
Estimated Next Difficulty:   47,796,950,794 (+0.78%)
Adjust time:   After 1109 Blocks, About 7.7 days
Hashrate(?):   326,239,702 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 29.9 minutes
6 blocks: 59.8 minutes

[philipma1957]

real time google is -1.11   stop the contest now

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645

[A4Tech]

hmm philp , such , : if the diff near 0.00% like 0.22% or so i won ?

[philipma1957]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  shows (+0.69%)  price is  280   1062 blocks left


Bitcoin Difficulty:   47,427,554,951
Estimated Next Difficulty:   47,752,580,038 (+0.69%)
Adjust time:   After 1062 Blocks, About 7.4 days
Hashrate(?):   325,662,248 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 29.9 minutes
6 blocks: 59.9 minutes
Updated:   7:15 (5.0 minutes ago)


these numbers still make money for me.

It will be very interesting to see what happens this summer.

I go to 16 cents in the summer.

  It is possible I may be able to run these sp20's in the summer.

[philipma1957]

hmm philp , such , : if the diff near 0.00% like 0.22% or so i won ?

   No you have only 1 shot at winning 0%.

  Someone has the above and someone has the below.
 It pays double.  It is 25x harder to win then picking a range.

[philipma1957]

looks like we jumped up just a bit on the google real time chart.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645

-0.56% with price at 295 on coin base.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+0.42%)



Bitcoin Difficulty:   47,427,554,951
Estimated Next Difficulty:   47,628,066,716 (+0.42%)
Adjust time:   After 962 Blocks, About 6.7 days
Hashrate(?):   330,258,114 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 30.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   23:20 (55.0 seconds ago)

so -.5 to +.5  on the two predictors.  we have 962 blocks left.

I heard new gear from bitmaintech.com is coming but  zero proof .  they did drop price down to 369 plus 47 to ship to the usa so 416  I think this slows sales a lot.

[rikkie]

Well one thing that the spreadsheet, nor bitcoinwisdom will take into account is the ddos attacks that appear (somewhat) to be over. If the attacks are generally over then we would have seen a temporary drop in the hashrate that using statistical analysis would not be able to pick up.

I would guesstimate that the ddos attacks will cause the difficulty increase to be ~1% lower then it otherwise would be (or the decrease be 1% more) and the estimate for the next difficulty change to be off by ~0.5% until we are ~85% or so through the difficulty period

[philipma1957]

Well one thing that the spreadsheet, nor bitcoinwisdom will take into account is the ddos attacks that appear (somewhat) to be over. If the attacks are generally over then we would have seen a temporary drop in the hashrate that using statistical analysis would not be able to pick up.

I would guesstimate that the ddos attacks will cause the difficulty increase to be ~1% lower then it otherwise would be (or the decrease be 1% more) and the estimate for the next difficulty change to be off by ~0.5% until we are ~85% or so through the difficulty period

well the spreadsheet has real time number which is about   -0.69  that is the actually number if we jump now.

It has future numbers at 3 and 5 days.  Those numbers may be wrong due to the ddos attack.  But the real number is for right now.

 below it is -0.69%   That is in 'real' time.  The futures  numbers for 3 days and for 5 days are the guess past on the trends up to now.
 
The google chart is like a horse race announcer  and -0.69% is   the horse in the lead at a little bit past the halfway point.