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Author Topic: New Diff thread Mar 8 to Mar 22.  (Read 8396 times)
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SimplisticStu
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March 17, 2015, 10:59:52 AM
 #121

-0.48% (at time of post) and price staying sub $300, would be nice to see a decline in difficulty and to break through the £300 barrier again or am I asking too much right now?

Won't happen. Either price will break $300 and difficulty will rise, or price will fall and difficulty will stay the same or go down.

Yeah that's what the rational side of my brain thought at first but then I thought it would be nice to break through $300 and keep the difficulty down.

It might happen, maybe if we see a 2nd wave of DDOS attacks  Huh
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philipma1957 (OP)
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March 17, 2015, 01:30:41 PM
 #122

-0.48% (at time of post) and price staying sub $300, would be nice to see a decline in difficulty and to break through the £300 barrier again or am I asking too much right now?

Won't happen. Either price will break $300 and difficulty will rise, or price will fall and difficulty will stay the same or go down.

Yeah that's what the rational side of my brain thought at first but then I thought it would be nice to break through $300 and keep the difficulty down.

It might happen, maybe if we see a 2nd wave of DDOS attacks  Huh

If BTC would  stay in this  price range 280-300usd  and diff does -0.5% for the next 3 jumps  I will sign up for that in a heartbeat.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645  the live number is  (-1.68%)  we have about 722 blocks to go

coinbase is 295 usd

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March 17, 2015, 04:04:57 PM
 #123

-0.48% (at time of post) and price staying sub $300, would be nice to see a decline in difficulty and to break through the £300 barrier again or am I asking too much right now?

Won't happen. Either price will break $300 and difficulty will rise, or price will fall and difficulty will stay the same or go down.

Yeah that's what the rational side of my brain thought at first but then I thought it would be nice to break through $300 and keep the difficulty down.

It might happen, maybe if we see a 2nd wave of DDOS attacks  Huh

With failover pools I think loss of mining power is small.  Most don't use just 1 pool in their miners.   Sure some do.... but they would not long with these attacks hurting pools.
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March 17, 2015, 04:22:49 PM
 #124


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645  the live number is  (-1.68%)  we have about 722 blocks to go

coinbase is 295 usd

Yep not much more to go, also nearing 14 million coins generated
Doubt it will have much impact on mining speed though but it seemed like an interesting note.
13,950,550 when I posted Smiley

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March 17, 2015, 04:28:34 PM
 #125


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645  the live number is  (-1.68%)  we have about 722 blocks to go

coinbase is 295 usd

Yep not much more to go, also nearing 14 million coins generated
Doubt it will have much impact on mining speed though but it seemed like an interesting note.
13,950,550 when I posted Smiley

I always wonder how many of those coins have been lost for all time, due to misplaced keys or corrupted hard drives, etc.
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March 17, 2015, 05:08:37 PM
 #126


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645  the live number is  (-1.68%)  we have about 722 blocks to go

coinbase is 295 usd

Yep not much more to go, also nearing 14 million coins generated
Doubt it will have much impact on mining speed though but it seemed like an interesting note.
13,950,550 when I posted Smiley

I always wonder how many of those coins have been lost for all time, due to misplaced keys or corrupted hard drives, etc.

This one surely looks lost Smiley

https://blockchain.info/address/1111111111111111111114oLvT2
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March 17, 2015, 07:38:38 PM
 #127


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645  the live number is  (-1.68%)  we have about 722 blocks to go

coinbase is 295 usd

Yep not much more to go, also nearing 14 million coins generated
Doubt it will have much impact on mining speed though but it seemed like an interesting note.
13,950,550 when I posted Smiley

I always wonder how many of those coins have been lost for all time, due to misplaced keys or corrupted hard drives, etc.

This one surely looks lost Smiley

https://blockchain.info/address/1111111111111111111114oLvT2

Wow never seen one so full of 1's with money in it.  If someone truly has that I would like to know how long they used vanitygen to make it.  Or how ever they got it.
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March 17, 2015, 08:38:47 PM
 #128


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645  the live number is  (-1.68%)  we have about 722 blocks to go

coinbase is 295 usd

Yep not much more to go, also nearing 14 million coins generated
Doubt it will have much impact on mining speed though but it seemed like an interesting note.
13,950,550 when I posted Smiley

I always wonder how many of those coins have been lost for all time, due to misplaced keys or corrupted hard drives, etc.


This one surely looks lost Smiley

https://blockchain.info/address/1111111111111111111114oLvT2

Wow never seen one so full of 1's with money in it.  If someone truly has that I would like to know how long they used vanitygen to make it.  Or how ever they got it.

Look at the hash160 which is all 0's... Strange.  Somewhat impressive actually.


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March 18, 2015, 01:21:23 AM
 #129

WOW. Another -10% day again. Looks like we might actuall get the difficulty reduced next Monday.

Great news for miners.

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March 18, 2015, 03:26:03 AM
 #130

Since a final list has not yet been made, I would consider guessing a difficulty decline of -2.51 to -2.75%

The whole DDOS issue is likely going to cause miners to effectively go offline that based on economics should not be offline

this may turn out to be the best pick yet

real time google is -0.98%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645

I think you might be right. The spreadsheet is now showing the estimated difficulty to be -1.92%, although the 3 day moving average is lower at -3.71%

If this drop is being caused by the DDOS attacks, then I am surprised that it is lasting this long, although it could be that pools that were being used by a large corporate farm(s) were affected, and all their miners were effectively kicked offline and for whatever reason were never brought back online.

I would say that if I do not end up winning then the contest will likely roll over because the difficulty will probably decline by more then what I predicted.
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March 18, 2015, 03:51:49 AM
 #131

Since a final list has not yet been made, I would consider guessing a difficulty decline of -2.51 to -2.75%

The whole DDOS issue is likely going to cause miners to effectively go offline that based on economics should not be offline

this may turn out to be the best pick yet

real time google is -0.98%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645

I think you might be right. The spreadsheet is now showing the estimated difficulty to be -1.92%, although the 3 day moving average is lower at -3.71%

If this drop is being caused by the DDOS attacks, then I am surprised that it is lasting this long, although it could be that pools that were being used by a large corporate farm(s) were affected, and all their miners were effectively kicked offline and for whatever reason were never brought back online.

I would say that if I do not end up winning then the contest will likely roll over because the difficulty will probably decline by more then what I predicted.

I think you may win. It may dip to -3.? then come back.  My guess is a big farm sold off gear to a 2 or 3 cent power prlce  farm

and it will come back on line soon.

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March 18, 2015, 04:11:15 AM
 #132

Its getting suspensive Smiley ..

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March 18, 2015, 04:36:39 AM
 #133

Nice maybe -2% That could be awesome!  Grin

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philipma1957 (OP)
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March 18, 2015, 01:07:03 PM
 #134

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (-2.12%)     https://www.coinbase.com/charts   coins are now $274.28 Embarrassed



Bitcoin Difficulty:   47,427,554,951
Estimated Next Difficulty:   46,419,854,296 (-2.12%)
Adjust time:   After 635 Blocks, About 4.6 days
Hashrate(?):   329,894,115 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.3 minutes
3 blocks: 31.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   9:0 (4.9 minutes ago)


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645  (-1.69%)

The coin drop to 275 should  cause a bigger downward trend in diff. 

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March 18, 2015, 02:48:48 PM
 #135

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (-2.12%)     https://www.coinbase.com/charts   coins are now $274.28 Embarrassed



Bitcoin Difficulty:   47,427,554,951
Estimated Next Difficulty:   46,419,854,296 (-2.12%)
Adjust time:   After 635 Blocks, About 4.6 days
Hashrate(?):   329,894,115 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.3 minutes
3 blocks: 31.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   9:0 (4.9 minutes ago)


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645  (-1.69%)

The coin drop to 275 should  cause a bigger downward trend in diff. 

How low you think coin price will go? Maybe back to $220?
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March 18, 2015, 04:42:03 PM
 #136

It really does look like downward trend is causing less hash:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,427,554,951
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,444,875,248 (-2.07%)
Adjust time:    After 612 Blocks, About 4.4 days

Very interesting I wonder how many miners are turning on/off with difficulty changes.

Currently a little under 270 on price.
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March 18, 2015, 04:46:20 PM
 #137

It really does look like downward trend is causing less hash:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,427,554,951
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,444,875,248 (-2.07%)
Adjust time:    After 612 Blocks, About 4.4 days

Very interesting I wonder how many miners are turning on/off with difficulty changes.

Currently a little under 270 on price.

I feel for those that ordered the  469 usd s-5's due on march 30th.

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March 18, 2015, 05:28:36 PM
 #138

It really does look like downward trend is causing less hash:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,427,554,951
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,444,875,248 (-2.07%)
Adjust time:    After 612 Blocks, About 4.4 days

Very interesting I wonder how many miners are turning on/off with difficulty changes.

Currently a little under 270 on price.

I feel for those that ordered the  469 usd s-5's due on march 30th.

That would make sense.  We have not heard much about next gen still.  So I'm guessing it's pretty small amount.

But those S5's would be in production chances are by this point and being burnt in.
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March 18, 2015, 05:56:47 PM
Last edit: March 18, 2015, 10:10:17 PM by philipma1957
 #139

268 usd will slow mining in its tracks. I am thinking a solid drop to  240 would help lower diff more.

down to 255 on coinbase

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March 18, 2015, 10:34:06 PM
 #140

268 usd will slow mining in its tracks. I am thinking a solid drop to  240 would help lower diff more.

down to 255 on coinbase


It has been one disappointing day to say the least.   The BTC price keeps dropping and difficulty is not dropping anywhere near as fast.

Did I miss anything on news for the sudden drop i price?
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