I will do it - dont bite me

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=387533.0

Preample
Basically, this thread is a continuation of DeathAndTexas's thread using the scheduled/expected delivery date of all main ASIC players to assemble a somewhat valid forecast of total network hashrate. Personally, I think this is the most appropiate way to do it and I highly appreciate his work. I will also copy the basic design of his thread - it is in good shape and people involved earlier will recognize it fast. I was hoping he would continue updating his thread on a regular basis - this said, I have no intention in stealing anyones idea - I am just interested in a valid hashrate forecast. Mr DeathAndTexas - in case I spit in your soup here - feel free to drop me a PM. Link to original thread -> Original thread

Goal
Produce a hashrate forecast Q1 2014 (31.03) and Q2 2014 (30.06) based on the delivery schedule of main ASIC companies (and other sources!?) for that timeframe by using community knowledge. Starting point is 01.01.2014 with a hashrate of 11 Ph.

Method
A) In case you have an indication/ wild speculation/ backed up source of how much Thash will be released by a specific entity post your estimate in the following format:


B) Any estimate is welcome. In case you want to contradict a statement please behave mannerful and explain why your estimate differs
C) Always try to include a source and a statement about your scenario assumptions 1) Lower tier, 2) Mid tier, 3) Upper tier
D) This thread is not to discuss any specific products in terms of ROI. Whether Miner xyz will break even is offtopic and will be deleted
E) Any post containing unrespectful behavior or other offtopic discussions will be deleted
F) Before posting check out the scam list first! -> Good effort!
G) I am open for any feedback or ideas how to improve our forecast approach. Don't post it here. Leave me a PM.
H) No one can predict the future. Let's try to generate a realistic case. In the end we will most probably have a range of xxx-xxx Thash.

Total Hashrate Forecast Q2 2014
Based on delivery by end of Q2 2014:


Conclusion, Chances & Sensitivities (Preliminary)
Rather than just posting a number I prefer to lead the discussion based on a range or tier system. For the first draft of this conclusion I introduce the lower, mid and upper tier.

Lower tier:

Upper tier:



Mid tier:

First draft - Feel free to discuss this openly with your insights! Still have the gut feeling our Mid tier is too high. I expected something around 7b diff earlier.

Version
- 27.12.2013; start of discussion
- 30.12.2013; first rough draft; removed Q1 FC; set focus to Q2 FC; renamed scenarios to "Lower, Mid, Upper"; draw first conclusion
- 07.01.2013; Hashfast failed to provide, but for now -until clarifiaction of situation - lets keep FC like it is; Some unknown source keeps adding massive hashpower; We have to observe that trend; Next review around end of January; By then, we will have a lot more information for Asicminer, Bitmine, Hashfast, Cointerra etc...

Next Step/ To dos until 07-09.02.2014
- Check batch definition of each vendor - I am not 100% sure whether I did mistakes  (by: Community)
- Check & discuss lower/ mid/ upper figures (by: Community)
- Ongoing search for every tiny bit of information (from mails, forum, vendor hp, IRC, media) to verify our data (by: Community)
- Update tiers & conclusion including aboves findings (by: author)

Sources for forecast data
[1]    https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-69
[2]    https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-72
[3]    https://www.kncminer.com/categories/miners
[4]    https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-73 -> Batch size is pure speculation. Any ideas?
[5]    Statement Friedcat in Asicminer thread on bitcoin.org -> Someone has the link?
[6]    550 Units@ 400-600 -> HF Order Chain information; Speed still not verified
[7]    max. 400% of BJ speed-> Hashfast ToS

[8]    No figure available; Is currently selling batch 4, which is guaranteed to ship by March 31, 2014; Once product is debugged    additional batches will follow for sure

[9]   http://www.coindesk.com/cointerra-cuts-price-of-terraminer-iv-bitcoin-mining-rig/ -> The 2 Ph is Dec and Jan batch???
[10]   No figure availabe; following batch 1; CT is currently selling batch 5; Cointerra has without a doubt massive capacities; any ideas?
[11]   http://www.coindesk.com/bitmine-to-drop-4phs-of-asic-power-onto-bitcoin-network-before-april/

[12]   Pure speculation on basis of production capacity; I read they have capacity of around 50 rigs/ day, 20 working days, 2 TH biggest unit = 2 Ph/ month

[13]   Pure speculation; No one knows right now. Josh claims capacity of 1000/ day, 20 working days, 600 Gh unit = 12 Ph/ month; From the past - Company has reputation of beeing late and overstating its capability. Nevertheless, they already deployed substantial hashing power & future potential should not be underestimated

[14]   http://ecointalk.net/topic/11-prepaying-full-or-50/?p=17
[15]   Any information??? Which batch is selling right now? How many units?
[16]   Cumulation of smaller vendors; hidden Island operations; Start-ups whatever; safety margin
[17]   Broken gear; numbers wild speculation



Let's do this.

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Update 11.02.2014

Finally I found some time to scramble the numbers. We got a lot of new information and developments. I try to cover them all. In case I miss something crucial feel free to give me the hint. In addition - before I start with this - at some point I will surely drop negative/ positive remarks about vendor x or y. This is not to attack/ promote the operation or the people behind it. This is simply the attempt to transfer their behaviour into some viable numbers. Fans of club A or B. Please do not feel judged - try to see this in the right light: We want a solid FC here!

Let's start. First - I want to check what happened between our starting point 01.01.2014 (11 PH) and the last adjustment on 05.02.2014 (18.7 PH). In this period roughly +8/9 PH got added to the network. Our initial guess of 10 PH per month up until July was surprisingly accurate for the first month. We all can agree that no major player in our spreadsheet shipped significant amounts. We saw some Hashfast/ Cointerra units in the wild but major consensus is that they have not started mass production yet.

Conclusion: All added network power originates from the position "Others" in our spreadsheet. Who are the players in here? We hear a few names. Most prominent should be Avalon chips (6 PHs sold), Bitfury, Antminer, 21e something... and maybe a few other hidden projects. Bad news is we have no deeper insights on the developments here. Good news is we dont need all the details to adjust our FC accordingly. It should be clear by now that my initial number of "Others" was WAY, WAY, WAAAAY to low. Given around 8 PH originates from "Others" in January I set FC to approx. 5-10 PH per month from now on only for this position. [1]

Let’s check step by step what our main spreadsheet positions are doing. From top to bottom.

KnC:
Will not deliver any additional Jupiters. Maybe a small batch of upgrade modules which will not have significant effects on the hashrate. They started to build an arctic mega-datacenter on the dark side of the Neptune to cover potential losses for their 20nm customers and move towards cloud based mining in the future. Nevertheless, they claim to have made significant progress on their development. I will only remove the Jupiter position in the spreadsheet and - for now - leave the "Neptune-Batch" position untouched. My feeling is, they either provide the physical Neptune in Q2 (unlikely) or the equivalent in virtual hashpower (more likely). Anyway, this does not impact our FC. I know there are people out there with different opinions about what KnC will do or not do. Still open for discussion here. [2]  

Asicminer:
The quote of 2 to 20 PH for the initial batch of their new chip is still up to date BUT - they also announced to delay their tape-out to mid Feb. I am not an engineer - but my understanding here is: From tapeout to working chip around 60 days (mid April). Then they have to sell their chips, ship it, people need to start developing miners based on their chips and so on..... From observing their thread I also have the strong feeling their management lacks basic customer/ shareholder care, fast decision making and clear strategy. For me these are strong indicators for a delay. Although their chip looks very potent on paper - I just dont see any significant volume from AM in our observed timeframe. This said, AM FC is reduced significantly. [3]

Hashfast:
I guess not much to say here. They messed it up big time. As far as I followed the 1m+ pages in their tread they managed to ship their initial batch without MPP. Don't know whether they started batch 2. Clear is: They have engineering problems, they have court action going on from changing their ToS several times after sale and they suffered BIG reputation damage. Basically, they are out of business or very close. Only a brain dead monkey would buy from them in future. Maybe they recover, maybe not. Big potential to reduce FC. As of now - I will remove batch 5&6 from spreadsheet. Let's wait and see what they will do in Feb/ March to judge further. Maybe they mine with own chips? We simpy do not know. [4]

Cointerra:
These guys were said to have the biggest potential of the new vendors showing up. Solid staff, solid financials and overall profesional appearance. Fact is they are also late on their initial batch. As far as I followed their thread they are still struggeling to ship out their December units. We mainly see some guys shaking hands with the CEO for marketing purpose - no mass volume. Nevertheless, first units appear to be in hand by respected members of the community.
What else? Problems (challenges) with certification, problems with performance of the unit, problems with power consumption, problems with the boards. They have a working product: Yes. They do not have it shipped in masses and clearly under the expected performance. I still think these guys will pull it off and deliver what they promise soon. But I will reduce the FC due to the 20% less performance of the units. [5]

Bitmine:
Hmmm - I clearly have no idea. They are late yes. There seem to be some working chips yes. Do they seem to be profesional enough to ship in large quantities? - maximum chance 50% chance imho. Behaviour from the last 1-2 months: Strong lack of transparency and delaying tactics. They are buying time. Their customer base starts to get nervous. Let's see and wait. FC unchanged. [6]

BFL
Just dont want to comment on these guys. I will keep FC like it is. Next time maybe. Still see significant space for reduction here. The monarch looks like it will turn to molten lava in the second you power it....

blackarrow:
Another company basically predestined to fail. Horrible customer support. Last minute delay from February to MAI for their initial batch. Their chips/ product will be worthless by then. Customers start to jump the sinking ship. Chance of going bust within 6 month: Very high. Just my judgement. Anyway, the shipping volume we have in our spreadsheet is very low. I will let it unchanged this time. Next time we may see a reduction here. Other opinions welcome. [7]

Discount for broken gear:
Guys - we need a solid approach for this one. Do we have an engineer/ expert here who can help out? Some number like "1 out of 100 chips will fail within the first 60 days". Any hint is valuable as I think we need to include and maintain this position. [8]

Punching the number in our spreadsheet we have the following new picture (see below).


Now the hard part. Setting a new mid-Tier forecast value. In comparison to our first shot we have two major developments that need to be adressed.

A) Massive new hash power from various known and unknown sources (7.7 PH alone in January)
B) Basically all major new vendors are late, struggling or close to bust

Conclusion: Mainly based on the massive amount of hashing power added by various forces which is partly but not completely compensated by negative vendor behaviour - I will increase the Forecast by +27 PH to 95.000 Thash (13.3b diff) as of 01.07.2014. Basically I estimate we will see roughly 10-15 PH added to the network from now on until July.

Next update will be after 3-5 jumps with new basis or in case something major happens.

Thanks for following and providing valuable information!


Sources:
[1] No obvious major vendor shipped between 01.01.2014 and 05.02.2014. Roughly 8 PH got added simply from "Other" sources
[2] https://www.kncminer.com/news
[3] Following https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.17502
[4] Following https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=262052.0
[5] Following https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=269093.0
[6] Following https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=291141.1280
[7] Following https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=294197.0
[8] No source yet. Any ideas welcome

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Update 07.04.2014

Final Words and Closing

Everybody, this is my last update on this thread. I am quite bound in different other tasks and will not have the time to observe, analyze and comment all current trends in detail anymore. This is unfortunate but sloppy analysis due to time pressure is below my standards, so I better quit to not give any false predictions  - Thank you everybody for your inputs and useful hints. Feel free to continue the thread or overtake.

This said, it doesnt mean I completely abandon our forecast of ~95 PH by end of June 2014. In contrary, I think it is still very viable even without looking forward on the last three months of the observed timeframe.

Why? Our last datapoint is from Feb 05 2014 with a hashrate of 18.8 PH and last jump is from Apr 05 2014 with 43.8 PH which means 2 month account for roughly 25 PH. In our last forecast update we predicted 10-15 PH per month until July. Looking on the last two months isolated our prediction was quite accurate until now and I dont see any game changing reasons.    

Right now we have different trends that slow down and reduce the PHs added (low BC price, MTGox damage, massive delays of basically all major vendors, rising energy expenses), but also compensating effects which speed up the growth (mainly new vendors popping up every day, lower hardware prices, massive datacenters etc...). This all evens out somehow and adds up to something between 10-15 PH per month for the next 3 months.

With big caution - final prediction: 90-100 PH by end of June 2014.

Cheers & I am out

Well, I almost spilled my morning coffee over the keyboard after reading your news update - epic.

For all the poor Hashfast souls - I am not involved - but if this would be an european or specifically german company I would obliterate them in front of a court. One sided ToS change - this is laughable - they have no chance. Thus said, I have no clue about the legal system in NA. Good luck @all.

I am confused - should be named 3rd batch - not second 

Also possible - nevertheless, very exiting - bring your liquitity in position for all scenarios

You are correct. Right now they could sell as many Jup as they want. They would sell them from stock asap even price tagged at 10k due to non existing competition.

...But - judging their overall beheviour from the past - I think they will honour their Network Protection Statement which has only one purpose: To protect the network share of existing customers (batch 1 & batch 2 Jup and to some extend Neptune pre-order guys).

This means
a) They do it coordinated (announce sales and condition 2-3 days in advance)
b) They sell relatively cheap (lower than the potential maximum market price e.g. between 3-5k)
c) They sell only to existing customers in limited amount (maybe 1 unit per previous unit bought)

This would be perfect execution and I would draw my head. Maybe, only maybe - they will just pump & dumb for all at premium price generating maximum profit - definitely a possibility... but I doubt that

Network Protection Statement only makes sense in case buying option is limited to existing customers and @absolutely competitive price. Let's see  

Its like 2 hours away from me by car - Lets see how this developes - I also refuse to take the trip because it looks very scammy.

Anyone here from NRW who can jump over quickly and check them out?

Put 500 Neptunes in your shopping cart. It will tell you that only x are left.

Try your tactic - but no one can guarantee that. I guess they will be sold out by end of week.

Yeah - it makes so much more sense to summarize in ranges, not in fixed numbers - just add diff will be between 3 and 10 billion and BC/ USD between 0 and 10k and everyone can start to do his own calculation  

Hahah - nice summary 

Still 178 Neptunes - your last chance

I seriously believe they try to walk the thin line between "customer/ network protection" and "company interests (profit)" - which absolutely makes sense to me. It is the same for all "big" companies - you need to find a certain balance between customers (we), staff (average Joe working for them) and owners (KnC Founders).

Right now I am under the impression they manage that difficult task not perfect - but quite good. Bringing all stakeholders in an acceptable balance is the high art of management.

No prejudices here - but bulgaria (in general most of eastern europe) is very shady from business point of view

hobby now - but it will for sure go industrial end 2014/ 2015

This is also my guess - something between 3-6 in diff. as of April 2014 - I also see at least one 28nm company failing hard. Safest way is KnC - others offer more chance but higher risk also

Hello orcanice,

you can also participate in one of the many "Group Buys" in the "Mining" sub-section - there you have the possibility to join mining with relatively low capital.

Cheers

You touched many reasons. Main reason is imho uncertainty - again lock money for many month without a known outcome. From business point of view they made quite a perfect pricing. Batch 2 Neptunes are still selling - slow and steady - but compared to batch 1 they are a really bad deal  

I hope for all customers that this MPP doesnt break their neck

Overall yes amazing job - but a few individuals got very bad luck with jupiter (me for instance) - I prefer waiting a few weeks more and receive a finetuned product - ... not to mention that KnC Hosting was a desaster