The current trend since the breakout would bring us to 800 by next Sunday.
But I don't think we'll maintain the same speed. It's been too linear which is unusual. I think we'll either stop and correct soon, or accelerate towards 1000 with growing volume.

At this rate, 700 by Tuesday - if not tomorrow evening.

He does not give a specific timeframe for such prediction. Rather he calculates probabilities of being at such a price at any given time.

The current trendline says the highest probabilities of hitting 300K are in two years, around end of June 2016. But there will be a fairly long period during which the probability of hitting 300K is significant : from about end of 2015 to end of 2016, depending on when the bull runs and crashes will occur.

This is if the trendline does not have to be redrawn by that time of course.

My hypothesis is that we will fail the first attempt at 1000 USD, rebounding strongly and falling back to 800. People will be calling the end of the rally and that's when it will actually start. From 800 to 5000.

 

Capital controls actually make bitcoin more attractive to wealthy chinese than to wealthy people living in free capital countries. People in free capital countries know they can enjoy their money wherever they go in the world. People in China not. What is better for them than to hold some of their wealth in BTC ?

2% is the official inflation rate. The real one is about 10% if we use the methods of measuring inflation in the past.
Don't be fooled by "official" stats. Inflation is running at 10% and will accelerate from here.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42551209

You mean 1.35 billion.

The math is quite simple.

The Gross Global Product is a bit more than 50 trillions USD today. Let's take pessimistic views and let's assume the Gross Global Product to remain constant in real terms. If we assume a 20% real rate of inflation over the next 10 years, it would be 300 trillions USD in 10 years (USD would be worth 6 times less in real terms).

If BTC reaches full adoption (which is of course a very optimistic idea - and what does it mean exactly?), we can take a very conservative approach and estimate that the market cap would need to be about 50% of the annual gross global product, so 150 trillions USD.

If we assume that the total number of BTC in existence in 10 years will be around 15 millions, we have a very simple calculation : 150 trillion / 15 million = 10 million USD.

Of course these 10 millions would be worth "only" 1.67 million USD in today's real purchasing power.

But in such an optimistic scenario, I believe that the figure of 50% of the global GDP market cap would be too low. Most people would be keeping their wealth in BTC as opposed to FIAT, treasuries and stocks due to the real inflation. So we are looking more into a market cap of 200% of global GDP which would be 600 trillions USD in 10 years or 40 million USD per BTC.

Why only one more ? Is it really going to rest before the 1000 resistance ?

Not many people dare to put their reputation on the line with such an unlikely prediction.
Even if he believes so, he would not have made this public prediction if he didn't get paid to do so, or he must be extraordinarily stupid.

Nobody has 2-4 million coins.

Bitcoin creator supposedly has 980 000 BTC. But they have not moved or been used once in many years, fuelling speculation that they might be lost.
Anyway, no sane investor would dump all his coins at once on the market.

Massive adoption by nearly everyone in most major economies would bring the price of Bitcoin to 1 million USD and more. I don't say it will happen, but if it happens, this is the kind of figure we are looking at. Not 100K.

Strong inflation of the FIAT currencies which is happening right now and accelerating would also multiply the nominal value of Bitcoin over the years. If real inflation reaches more than 20%, which it will, we are looking more into 10 million USD per BTC in the best case scenario within 10-20 years.

But full adoption is not a certainty of course. However, even a 5% adoption can bring the value of bitcoin to 100 000 in the next few years.

Sms authentication is not helping that much. If asmoney is hacked or if its CEO is a scammer or who knows what, your BTC is gone.


This is why only a solution like bitgo is truly secure. Even if bitgo is hacked, hackers cannot access your coins...

The third key is only in the possession of the owner who prints it or saves an encrypted version of it. He would need it only if Bitgo disappears somehow.

The guy confirms his views :

http://www.coindesk.com/mark-t-williams-bitcoin-bulls-time-will-vindicate-prediction/

“grossly over-inflated” due to what he views as its “concentrated ownership, artificially limited supply and overhyped demand”.

Talk about solid arguments !

Shall we take them one by one ?
Concentrated ownership does not create scarcity by itself. It is the anticipation of future value that creates scarcity, not ownership concentration.
If there was poor future utility/value, people would sell wether they are few or many.
If the anticipation of future value is great, people avoid spending it - even if they are millions.
The big BTC owners are not keeping it for themselves to manipulate the price up. Instead, they keep it because they anticipate a higher value in the future.

Big owners have been mostly pushing the price DOWN, not up. They did so by diversifying away from BTC as the value was going up over the years and months.

Now the "artificially limited supply". What he means by that ? Again scarcity from ownership concentration ? Impossibility to create them out of thin air ?
I have no idea, but I see a market well supplied with lots of BTC sellers.

About overhyped demand, well, I find we are quite far from hype. The media is quite dubious about BTC and is happier to relay pessimism than optimism. There is more fear and misunderstandings than hype surrounding bitcoin, imho.

By far the best energy drink I tasted is Maca Blast.
It was in Peru but they are starting to export.

Tastes like sweet champagne. Unbelievable. Feels like going back to Peru just for that one.

So what increased that fear of sending coins to exchanges in the last 10 days ?

What makes bitcoin valuable is not the "transaction utility" but the synergy of "transaction utility" and "solid storage of value utility".
Bitcoin is absolutely great for both functions.

If more people and entities recognise this fact, the price can only rise.

Yes transaction utility could be met at the current price, but not the storage of value utility.

People have a need to transact, but they have a need to hold their wealth as well. Many people want or will want to diversify their holdings away from paper holdings such as fiat accounts, treasuries and stocks. This is especially the case at a time when the valuation of paper holdings is at an all time high relative to their fundamentals. And at a time when governments are passing laws to have the right to seize private funds to cover their liabilities to society.

Where did I or anyone say that the gold represents the total wealth of the world ?

"what happens with total fiat after such an exchange?"
Why would anything happen to the fiat used to buy bitcoin after an exchange ? Why would it be nothing after the sale ?

Who enters into strange loops ?

Full bitcoin adoption means less use of fiat for transactions and storage of value, and less use of gold for storage of value, and less use of real estate for storage of value, and a comparable lowering of fiat and gold value and real estate value relative to total global wealth. Indeed, bitcoin, a new player takes these functions and "steals" a % in the representation of global wealth. Global wealth remains the same, but what is used to transact it and represent it changes.

Your points didn't add anything to the discussion and were only about bashing others about poor understanding while showing no argument whatsoever.
If you could write a post with some logic or honesty and without blaming others for poor understanding I will reconsider the troll label that was just stick on "NotLambchop".

The current price is not affected, no. We are talking about a future price in the hypothesis of success and full adoption as a global store of value and unit of transfer.

It is not that the quantity of above ground gold changes anything, but it is about the wealth that it represents today in relation with the functions that it plays today.