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101  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: A Simple Reason Why Bitcoin is not Money on: November 10, 2023, 03:09:29 PM
>"Today, the dominant type of money is the one created by banks, i.e. fiat money."

Governments, not banks.

Money is a tool of exchange, the material form of the principle that people who wish to deal with each other must do so voluntarily, giving value for value.  Money is a tool.  Fiat, enforced at the point of a gun can't make it valuable in the long term. 
102  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2023-11-07] Cathie Wood:Bitcoin Is A Hedge Against Both Deflation And Inflation on: November 10, 2023, 03:03:22 PM
Well, traditionally things like Gold and commodities and raw materials like oil, metals and agricultural products are used as a Hedge against inflation, because they retain their value in unstable conditions, but Bitcoin has shown that it can do that over longer periods.

During deflation, Cash becomes the most valuable asset because it can buy more.... and Bitcoin can both be a Commodity and a currency, so I guess she is correct.. if she says Bitcoin can be used to counter both.  Tongue

Yeah, you are right.  This is essentially the reverse of Gresham's law.  Good money (aka bitcoin and other things backed by assets) will eventually drive out bad.  People won't accept anything for the long term that is going to be inflated away.  Not to mention all the other benefits of bitcoin. 

Eventually people will realize that fiat not backed by anything is worth less (and eventually worthless) in the long term.  In the short term politicians can get away with devaluing a currency but reality catches up with their shenanigans eventually.  It is only a question of when.  An asset/currency/token/etc such as bitcoin illustrates the costs of holding fiat for the long term and helps expose that the emperor has no clothes. 
103  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2023-11-02] Infowars Host Alex Jones Lost 10,000 Bitcoin in Max Keiser's Quiz on: November 09, 2023, 04:02:25 PM
shouldn't that be part of his field of "expertise"?

Yes, it should be part of his field of expertise.

Imagine getting everything wrong including the Craig Wright question. It seems so unlikely to me - maybe Alex Jones was trolling (or I have underestimated his stupidity)

Particularly if you know that you are going to be discussing bitcoin, why wouldn't you at least bone up on some basics?  Or perhaps it was just an opportunity for both of them to get some press without having to actually do anything.


Did Max provide answers he would regard as correct?:

How many total bitcoin are there ever going to be in existence?  20,999,999.9769 , so slightly less than 21 million. 
How often does the difficulty adjustment adjust? Every 2016 blocks, or 2 weeks, roughly
What’s the core hashing algorithm called? SHA-256
How often, on average, do new blocks appear?  10 minutes is the goal.
Is Craig Wright Satoshi Nakamoto? Lol.  No.

104  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2023-11-07] Cathie Wood:Bitcoin Is A Hedge Against Both Deflation And Inflation on: November 09, 2023, 03:53:52 PM
Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, believes Bitcoin is a secure long-term asset, citing its decentralized nature and transparency. She sees traditional banks facing challenges and believes they may struggle to meet withdrawal demands, leading to increased interest rates. Wood connects this to the 2023 banking crisis and argues that Bitcoin's value is reinforced by such events. Despite acknowledging gold's merits, she trusts Bitcoin to hedge against inflation and deflation. Other notable investors, like Stanley Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones, share positive views on Bitcoin.
Read the full article here: https://coinminutes.com/news/cathie-wood-bitcoin-is-a-hedge-against-both-deflation-and-inflation/


Yeah, and not just banks facing challenges.  Government too with their profligate spending and consequent huge interest costs which are in reality causing the people of various countries to face challenges.  When your interest costs (like in the US) are more than $1 trillion per year due to insane spending policies there are few choices, one of which is inflating your way out of the problem which then hurts every single citizen.  But the "something for nothing" crowd like AOC are either too stupid to understand the issue or have decided they'd be willing to destroy the currency and thus the country to obtain power.
105  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2023-11-08] Motley Fool - This 1 Catalyst Could Send Bitcoin Soaring Back to... on: November 09, 2023, 03:51:18 PM
"What makes this year's boom so remarkable is that it is not being driven by retail investors. "

Hopefully the smart retail investors are already well positioned for this.  Who knows though.  Plenty of peoplehad the knowledge and opportunity to get involved in bitcoin but few actually did anything and then end up regretting it.
106  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2023-11-03] Argentina Presidential Hopeful Wants to Mine Bitcoin From 'Dead Cow on: November 09, 2023, 03:49:30 PM
It might be better for the gas to be productive, but I wonder if Bitcoin mining is the best option. It's a very competitive market.

Of course, they need ideas, because the government of Argentina is always bankrupt...  Roll Eyes

Given the current level of inflation, the number of times Argentina has defaulted on their debt, devalued their currency, added currency controls and destroyed their economy by inflation in the past compared with the above, it is extremely ironic that they would be even discussing bitcoin since it is an extraordinarily hard currency over time.  It is essentially the Anti-Argentinian peso and would neuter their ability to defraud the people of Argentina and the people who loan money to Argentina from around the world by devaluing the currency.

Maybe it will help the people of Argentina get out from under the thumb of their oppressive politicians.  Of course they keep voting the same type of politician in periodically by falling for the same "something for nothing", "my right to force someone else to pay for my choices" socialist rhetoric.
107  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2023-11-09] SEC Engages In Talks With Grayscale On Proposed Bitcoin ETF on: November 09, 2023, 03:43:44 PM
The SEC is in talks with Grayscale about a Bitcoin spot ETF, following their legal win in August. Grayscale is engaging with SEC units, and their Chief Legal Officer sees positive progress among firms like BlackRock and Fidelity. Despite Bitcoin hitting a 2023 peak at $36,000, the SEC, led by Gary Gensler, has yet to approve a spot ETF, citing concerns about fraud and market manipulation. Despite delays, major Wall Street players persist in submitting proposals, and Gensler emphasizes the prevalence of fraud in the crypto market.
Read the article: https://coinminutes.com/news/sec-engages-in-talks-with-grayscale-on-proposed-bitcoin-etf/

The fact that there are bureaucrats who have to approve something like this says a lot about the degree of freedom remaining in the US and in the world.  In a free country/world, adults should be free to enter into contracts like this without a hack like Gensler having to approve it or not.
108  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2023-10-21] Bitcoin spot ETF launch could drive $155 billion in fresh money... on: November 06, 2023, 07:39:24 PM
I think it is going to happen soon, with all the military conflicts happening all over the world and investors looking for investment options that has a store of value.

I also think the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are running out of excuses not to approve this and the submissions that are done are covering all the legal requirements for a approval.

The only reason why it might not be approved, is if there are some political influence not supporting this.  Roll Eyes  This is not a pseudo anonymous financial instrument, we are talking 100% regulated and centralized control and 100% KYC requirements.

Investors all over need to think about protecting themselves from inflation and authoritarians.   The combination will rob people of their wealth even if it is "only" 2-5% per year.  Global chaos and rampant printing money to fund insane schemes and military conflicts would only make it worse.  PMs and bitcoin are two way to help protect oneself.  And ETF holding "physical" bitcoin vs futures will make it easy for a lot of people to protect some of their money.  Even if on average they only choose to protect a few percent, the numbers are huge.
109  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2023-10-20 Barrons - Fidelity Says Bitcoin Trumps Other Digital Assets on: November 06, 2023, 07:36:11 PM
Quote
Researchers at Fidelity Investments, one of the world’s largest asset managers, are doubling down on bitcoin, describing it as a “superior form of money” that gives it a value not replicated by other tokens.

In a white paper released last week, Chris Kuiper and Jack Neureuter wrote that bitcoin’s status as a “monetary good” and store of value puts it in a different investment category than other tokens, which they said exhibit venture-capital-like properties.
...
For investors interested in digital assets, it’s best to think of those newer networks more like speculative venture-capital investments, the Fidelity researchers said, while bitcoin can be thought of as a monetary instrument.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/fidelity-bitcoin-401k-accounts-5e359383

It has taken them a while, but at least they seem to have understood the value bitcoin brings people.


Yes, of course, at the time they know there is nothing they can do to stop Bitcoin from growing and getting into the mainstream. So they decided might as well join the fun and make some money along the way. Hence, many big and famous firms are now heaping praises on Bitcoin away from the time when many of them dismiss it as just another scam, fraud, worthless and even a Ponzi scheme. just how time has changed them...well I am just wondering whether these people can really be working good for Bitcoin in many years from now.

If an ETF is approved, Fidelity, Schwab, BlackRock and others will no doubt bring a lot of fiat to the table from retirement accounts and non retirement accounts.  It will be a game changer particularly with the proximity to the halving.


110  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2023-11-02] Infowars Host Alex Jones Lost 10,000 Bitcoin in Max Keiser's Quiz on: November 06, 2023, 07:33:50 PM
Why am I having issues understanding what this is all about? If it was April 1st I wouldn't ask what's going on, but what is this? Did they have a deal or why would Max Keiser give him access to 10,000 Bitcoin and who says or believes that Max Keiser owns the private key to so many Bitcoin that he would really "donate" them to Alex Jones, an unparalleled crackpot, for answering a quiz?

Best of it all is that if he won those 10,000 Bitcoin, the only ones who'd really be happy about it would be the victims of the Sandy Hooks massacre as Alex Jones' filing for bankruptcy was rejected by the court.

Yeah, what the heck is all this about?   And did they consider the gift tax implications here?  A 709 is required and MK would be paying the gift tax on it which is 40%.  So he'd be giving 10000 bitcoin and then having to sell 4000 for the tax, but then would owe a capital gains tax on the 4000 so would need to sell another 1000 to pay that which would need another 240 to pay that which would need another 60....
So in short he'd need to have around 16000 bitcoins in order to gift 10000. 

And (as you asked), does he have that many remaining - 16000 - and if so why would he do it? 

111  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2023-10-21] Bitcoin spot ETF launch could drive $155 billion in fresh money... on: October 26, 2023, 01:58:11 PM
Only $155 billion of all those trillions that have been talked about for years? Did that researcher write what that means for the price or do we have to guess? The source of the news would be desirable, unless it is some confidential information that you have received personally Wink

The combination of an ETF (if approved) and the halving, may be a huge catalyst.  Since prices are set at the margin and new supply is dropping quite quickly the impact of even $155 billion would be huge.  With around 900 bitcoins per day going to 450, that amount of "new" money will have an outside impact.  :-)
112  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2023-10-20 Barrons - A Bitcoin ETF Looks Inevitable. Here’s the Playbook on: October 26, 2023, 01:56:19 PM
I think this scenario are very similar to the affect that the Halving has on the Bitcoin price. By the time when the actual Halving happens, most of the price increase has already been "priced in" ...because people knew that the event would happen.

So, the ETF approval will have the same affect... where the perception will be that it will be approved and people will buy early to get cheaper coins, before the price increase.  Roll Eyes

Have the prices really already been priced in at the halving?  I would argue now.  Perhaps in the very short term you could consider that (e.g. 1-3 months?) but 9-12 months later it seems now.  :-)

And I agree that the impact of the ETF approval may be priced in, but the impact of the ETF investments over time probably hasn't. 

Who knows for sure though....ask me in 5 years. lol
:-)
113  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2023-10-04] The Economist: Did bitcoin leak from an American spy lab? on: October 20, 2023, 02:03:54 PM
Quote
A click-baity headline fro the Economist.
And the paper cites work by a researcher named “Tatsuaki Okamoto”.

Indeed, and poor journalism, why put the guy's name in "" like it's not his name or he doesn't exist, he has even given interviews on his patents and his views on Bitcoin. Besides, old story:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235289.0
somebody from the Economist just had a pressing deadline on delivering some article.

But imagine this being true, some users around here might need some extra pills if they find out the thing that was supposed to overthrow the government is a tool leaked by the government to control the masses! And sheeple becomes a new kind of meme.  Roll Eyes


What is more likely is that this rumor that it is to "control the masses" is being spread by "agencies" because they know that bitcoin is a tool that allows the masses to avoid the control by the governments, protect themselves, their assets and families, be pseudo-anonymous, and be secure from censorship of payments.  Reverse psychology here.
114  Bitcoin / Press / 2023-10-20 Barrons - Fidelity Says Bitcoin Trumps Other Digital Assets on: October 20, 2023, 01:53:55 PM
Quote
Researchers at Fidelity Investments, one of the world’s largest asset managers, are doubling down on bitcoin, describing it as a “superior form of money” that gives it a value not replicated by other tokens.

In a white paper released last week, Chris Kuiper and Jack Neureuter wrote that bitcoin’s status as a “monetary good” and store of value puts it in a different investment category than other tokens, which they said exhibit venture-capital-like properties.
...
For investors interested in digital assets, it’s best to think of those newer networks more like speculative venture-capital investments, the Fidelity researchers said, while bitcoin can be thought of as a monetary instrument.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/fidelity-bitcoin-401k-accounts-5e359383

It has taken them a while, but at least they seem to have understood the value bitcoin brings people.
115  Bitcoin / Press / 2023-10-20 Barrons - A Bitcoin ETF Looks Inevitable. Here’s the Playbook on: October 20, 2023, 01:45:09 PM
Quote
"A Bitcoin exchange-traded fund seems all but sure to come on the market within the next few months. Be careful in chasing gains the market has likely already priced in.  On Friday, the Securities and Exchange Commission declined to appeal a recent loss in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. In that case, a panel of judges unanimously concluded that the SEC erred in rejecting Grayscale Investments’ bid to convert the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (ticker: GBTC) into an exchange-traded fund.  ...  "
 
https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-etf-grayscale-how-invest-5e6b7393

I believe they are correct about the inevitability of a BTC ETF.  However, "priced in"?  Perhaps in the short term it is priced in, but in the long term that seems very doubtful.  The question is: what is the absolute demand for bitcoin from people who don't want to open an account at an exchange or hold their own coins?  Just in my experience with people, people are often lazy.  If they can buy it at Schwab, Vanguard, Fidelity, Merrill, eTrade etc in their brokerage or IRA that makes it much easier and less intimidating.  
116  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [23-05-19] Is Ledgers New Bitcoin Key Recovery Feature Safe? Experts Have Doubts on: October 05, 2023, 12:44:13 PM
I had to read through this thread twice thinking it must be a joke.  But no, it isn't.  I spent my working career in marketing and sales.  Whoever submitted this as a "corporate idea" should no longer be a contender for any promotions, LOL!!

It is the opposite of cold storage, so why not just keep the keys in plain text in a gmail account?  I'd trust google more than Ledger, of course that doesn't say much since I wouldn't trust either of them with anything like that.

117  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2023-09-08] BTC ETF: The quiet 800-pound gorilla in the room is about to roar on: October 03, 2023, 01:50:56 PM
The thing is.... do we want Institutional capital to enter Bitcoin and dominate the ownership of coins ...or do we want an more even distribution of coins to millions of people?

The Institutional Fiat rich investors will turn into Bitcoins whales and they will use those coins to manipulate the price.... they will dump large amounts of coins, which will cause huge price fluctuations and this will create too much price volatility for retail and businesses to use it as a Currency.

I vote for mass adoption of millions of individuals.... and not just a few institutions with the investment capital of a small group of super rich people.  Roll Eyes

It will never be a  working currency. the fee structures are wrong.

the shrinking reward system will alway create upwards price pressures.


The scrypt algo using LTC / Doge is far better to use for circulation currency.

BTC would have need to slow blocks and make ½ ings every 8 years then have lightning network for smaller transactions.

It has already failed as a universal payment system. it is  still good for larger money moves

Lightning helps with the circulating currency issue.  Likewise, at some point an order of magnitude or two from now I believe that bitcoin will reach nearly fiat equilibrium except for of course the increase in fiat price due to fiat inflation and smaller increases in use cases.

118  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2023-08-22] Bitcoin Mining Startup Raises $13 Million to Turn Trash Into BTC on: October 03, 2023, 01:48:30 PM
Now burning methane gas to produce electricity, might not be the most environment friendly option, but it is released into the air in any way.. so why should we not use it?

Perhaps because of a little something called natures delicate balance? We should be trying to cut back on the production of methane if we want to keep living on a livable planet. I know that there are a few hard-core Waterworld fans who disagree with me on this, but trust me, it would be a better option. That being said, the acceleration of offsetting the delicate balance of nature is not really an argument.

I understand that argument basically as a kind of a lemmings way out of an anxious situation: "We're all headed towards a doomed future anyway, might as well die now". Roll Eyes

It is easier said than done... and it will cost us to make huge sacrifices to the way we are living. Take cows for instances, they release massive amounts of methane into the atmosphere as a byproduct of the grass that they eat and we get Milk and Meat from them. Do we kill all the cows and remove Milk and Meat from our diet?

We should find alternative solutions like this to harness that "FREE" energy to our advantage and to improve the quality of the air that we breathe. (Agriculture already use cow dung to generate energy from the methane released)



"Free" energy such as fusion would go a long way to this.

One "simple" way would be to change the albedo of the planet.  Paint all rooftops white, and make roadways and parking lots white.  That alone would change the direction of the planetary temperature and would be significantly less expensive and disruptive than other options.

119  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2023-09-19] Barron's: Bitcoin Rises Ahead of the Fed. Bullish Bets Might Be ... on: September 20, 2023, 11:59:35 PM
Yeah, I read that article too and it really didn't have a lot of substance.  There are catalysts, halving, potential ETFs, more usage cases etc. that weren't mentioned.  The Fed is impacting it short term for traders and long term for investors due to perpetual inflation at various levels, long term hard money (backed by math) wins.
120  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2023-09-08] BTC ETF: The quiet 800-pound gorilla in the room is about to roar on: September 12, 2023, 02:35:03 PM
I think this is great news for bitcoin both from a price perspective and from a long term use perspective.  The long term goal in my thoughts has been to make bitcoin usable for many things, from transactions, to transferring real world items, to protecting oneself from the power-hungry people in the world, to providing censorship resistance to everyone in the world etc. 

Speculators are all well and good and it isn't something one would want to end.  They have helped launch bitcoin from less than a penny to wherever it is right now $25k-30k.  The way to get to the usability standpoint is to reach higher adoption and ownership.  Even if ETF owners are doing some speculation, this could easily take bitcoin on its next leg up and at some point, whether another order or two or three of magnitude, then one won't need to get out of bitcoin, one can transact in bitcoin without as much thought about price appreciation.  Once more people stay in bitcoin, KYC etc won't be relevant.

In short, if an ETF is approved which does seem more likely now, that will bring a lot of new capital in which gets closer to the point above.  :-)

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