JP Morgan died in 1913.*



Even OP, who found out about BTC in 2013, had plenty of time to get involved.  In 2013 bitcoin was between $10-$100 (I think around 30 in April 2013 - I had lunch with some engineering friends who I'd mentioned bitcoin to back in November 2010, then in 2012 and again then.  Neither of them did anything at that time or at least through 2018).  I told people about the internet and internet domain names in 1993, 1994, and 1995, it was a similar scenario where people talk a good game, but often decide to do other things instead of taking a few hours or days to follow through.

Even now, in April 2021, if adoption continues as it has, there is still 1 or two orders of magnitude (or maybe more) left in usage and fiat growth.  Since many people don't understand orders of magnitude, that means there is room for 10 (one order of magnitude) or 100 (two orders of magnitude) times increase in fiat price.  

I would venture that almost everyone who has attempted to trade bitcoin over the last 7-10 years would've done better to just buy and hold.



* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._P._Morgan
* His son, died 1943:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._P._Morgan_Jr.

Why have something censorable, centralized, and inflatable (among other things)?

Things like the digital yuan, aka slavecoin, are nothing more than tools to mislead.

A transfer out doesn't mean that someone bought or sold, it is just a transfer.  It could be internal to coinbase, e.g. to cold storage, or it could be someone who has purchased transferring the coins off the exchange to their own cold storage.

As far as "shake out of weak hands", for every sale there is a buyer, but I agree, everyone who has mined or bought at any point through 2020 has done wonderfully. Trading and market timing may work for a while, but people who timed and got out at $20000 in the last few months has missed a huge opportunity.

Agreed.  Learning to write, punctuate and spell is one key to communicating clearly.  Communicating clearly is important if one wants to convince others or make a point.  OP, if you want people to understand, you should review and revise your initial post. 

Agreed, and not to mention that they are staying in bitcoin, not converting it.  I do wonder how many people will actually use it, but it is certainly good publicity for both Telsa and bitcoin.

I find "taught" to be an interesting choice of words here as Game Boys can't learn.  I wonder why they didn't use programmed or other similar word.  Seems odd.

I think you are right.  With taproot/tapscript etc, the ability to use defi/NFTs etc on bitcoin - the most secure and distributed of the cryptos - should increase. 

Hopefully this doesn't take 20 years, the uses are immense, it is just a matter of using them. 

There are idiots all over the place whatever the asset.  TANSTAAFL for one thing.  People who think it is a get rich quick scheme haven't been following along.  :-)  I am usually of the opinion that people should be free to make their own decisions, even dumb ones, but without knowledge, derivatives are like handing teenagers a case of whiskey and the car keys.  Someone is going to get hurt and it is irresponsible to give them both. 

Look at Archegos, Credit Suisse, DB, NMR, UBS, GS, MS etc.  The hedge fund was supposedly knowledgable and yet wasn't. These prime brokerages were supposedly smart investment banks, and yet weren't.  Where was upper level management at these banks?  Where were the risk managers?   Where were the automated systems that flag things?  Anyone looking for a quick buck without understanding what is going on is bound to lose money eventually.  Kind of like Macau, Las Vegas, Monte Carlo etc. If you are innumerate, one shouldn't gamble unless it is purely for fun like a movie ticket that you have a good chance of losing.

Hopefully not another 20 years. :-)  I think it primarily depends on uptake.  With taproot, tapscript etc, the rate of usage could increase dramatically quite quickly given the potential uses for defi etc. 

It depends on your location too.  In the UK it is probably different than in the EU or the US or Africa.  So what location is your preferred location?

I thought this was interesting.  Having more, larger, traditional, players involved in this can only be a positive.  Both from having the ability to open up the market to even more participants who might not have had the wherewithal to invest their retirement funds outside an ETF and to having more availability of bitcoin via a US ETF.  Who knows how long it will take, but with enough people pushing for it, it certainly helps.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/25/fidelity-wants-to-launch-a-bitcoin-etf-cryptocurrency-sec.html

I don't think it has to be an either/or.  Certainly a fiat pump in price is one measure of success because it enables many people who have been involved for a while to keep being involved with less concern.

Eventually the fiat/bitcoin price will stabilize.  The non-elites can get in now (and obviously previously) and if it is a speculative, or in my estimation, a protective investment, the people who are in now will greatly benefit between now and bitcoin to fiat equilibrium.  Probably 10-100 X in fiat terms from here.  So the non-elites can already be on the playground before the elites show up.  Once equilibrium is reached, there will be little reason to get out of crypto, and more reasons to just stay in it.  People in at any point since 2009 could be well rewarded for patience instead of in/out trading.

:-)

If there is more use, there won't be "big sales" on the exchanges and the volume of coins for sale will dry up.  The only way big buys will fill is having the price of the remaining coins go up until the buy is filled.  Eventually it will reach equilibrium where there are few coins for sale, but all are immediately snapped up.

I guess time will show what happens.  An important point is that once people don't need to leave crypto, then there will be fewer sellers since no one needs to sell. 

I think time frames do compress in some things like this, at least for a while. 

Reminds me of "internet time" from the mid-late 1990s though.  :-)



*Since many may not be familiar:
 https://www.technologyreview.com/2001/04/01/275725/the-myth-of-internet-time/

The fiat volume will increase though as the fiat price does. The absolute volume of Bitcoin exchanged doesn't need to increase.  The available bitcoin on the exchanges may even drop as usage increases vs trading. The more usage getting coins off the exchanges, the better.

He might be right. Or not.

Every time is different.  Now you have corporate use really starting with MSTR, Tesla, etc being just the tip of the iceberg.  With taproot, tapscript etc you have plenty of new use cases coming in defi etc.  Speedy trial to activate is bullish in the fiat market.  With large uses coming online and lessened new supply the trajectory is up.  With corporations buying hundreds of millions of dollars at a time vs individuals buying thousands of dollars the economics has changed.

I'll tell you in 2025 whether the newbie was right though. 

A decentralized digital currency (bitcoin by the subject) is being "imposed" or people have "freedom".  

Which is it?  Bitcoin is about freedom, freedom to use it or not.  Having someone impose using it by force is pretty much the opposite of liberty.  Adoption is happening whether or not people are being forced to use it.  People see the benefits of bitcoin as a way to short the money-printing political people who are willing to destroy everyone for their own power and monetary benefit.

As far as "Adaptation" - bitcoin is adapting all the time, as are many other cryptos.  Hence p2sh,lightning, taproot etc.  It is growing and improving all the time. So yes, adaption is possible, it has happened for more than a decade. I am not actually sure if you meant "adaptation", meaning changing, or adoption, meaning getting people to use bitcoin.  If you mean adoption, well, see above.

In short, both adoption and adaptation are possible and happening without any need to "impose" something on anyone else.

Bitcoin is much more portable.  If the people of Venezuela, North Korea, Russia, Europe, Cuba, Africa, Central America, South America, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore or Biden/Warren/AOC's USA (etc) needed to flee authoritarianism (socialism, fascism, communism etc), crossing a border with gold would be much more difficult than with bitcoin.

The number of people who are willing to take from one in order to give to another in order to buy their votes is increasing.  Look at the US Democrat party willing to sacrifice one group to satisfy another.  To them, equality under the law is just something to say, not really believe.  Of course, they are the party of Southern slavery, so what do you expect.  Their philosophy hasn't changed, just the language used to hide their true motives.

Gold is also decentralized, why say otherwise?

You are right.

People are misled by the promise of “free” stuff. They don’t know nothing is free, they are paying one way or the other.  It is the same US political party that owned slaves to get “free” stuff from them and the same philosophy that still thinks it is acceptable to force one person to provide for another. The US Democrat party hasn’t changed their philosophy, only the language they use to describe it and the method of implementation. Warren believes that if her policies “only effect a 5 or 10 thousand” people, it is acceptable to be discriminatory and to force them to work for her for 8 months a year without pay.

Evil at heart.  Their government policies are leading the US and eventually the world to enslavement and destruction. The siren song of promising one person they take from someone else and give it to them is strong.

Agreed, probably good news and I’m sure he’s not the only one doing it.

Price growth will probably result in fiat stability which then lessens the need to get out of crypto to transact.