I feel that 'Orama is just a puppet Director of Communications for KnC!? Poor for him and poor for us too.
Back to school/work girls and boys, Bitcoin is just a hobby.
Right, especially after the nonsensical bickering between MtGox, Bitcoin Foundation and other exchanges. I thought that they would be out of beta testing at this point (5 years later). |
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Well, it looks like they already have the hashrate to cover batch 1a. IMHO, batch 1a will be considered late in mid May. As the final batch two was sold to be shipped in quarter two. Batch 1b a month before that and batch 1a a few weeks before that. So in IMO mid May is the latest they can leave it for batch 1a.
Batch 1a was listed as Q1/Q2. It is late on July 1st. Anything else is wishful thinking. I disagree. If the farm is ready by mid March, then I would expect hashing for customers would start almost immediately. I don't think that customers would tolerate anything else. Is it possible that they would first hash on massive power for themselves? Yes, it is possible, but would be wrong on so many levels-it is not even funny. They want to stay in business year after year-you cannot do that if you upset your customers. Hashing totally for themselves is super risky because it opens up for massive losses due to currency/BTC price fluctuation. So, my prediction: 1. hashing for customers (batch 0) commences on March 15-March 30. 2. For batch 1-April 1-April 15 (or together with batch 0-one can dream, right?). 3. hashing power provided does not change much from 3th/s if BTC stays at current levels. At $400-500/BTC, I would expect them to bump the offer to 4th/s pr even 5ths/s, otherwise nobody in their sane mind would keep the purchase. |
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i requested a 2nd (3rd) batch refund a few days ago, i was asked to provide FULL Bank Account details.
i paid via BitPay...
Kurt says the refund will be completed 'shortly'
Are they just making it up as they go along now that butbutbutcoinorama & phakeonix arent doing it for them...?
FULL? All of SWIFT, IBAN, routing number and accounting number? Or just SWIFT, IBAN and accounting number? Thanks Hi, In order to process your refund we would need for you to provide us with the details as listed below. For European banks we would need the following: Full name of account holder - The full name of the bank - The complete address of your bank - The account number - IBAN - SWIFT/BIC - For American or Canadian banks we would need the following. Full name of account holder - The full name of the bank - The complete address of your bank - The routing/clearing number - The account number - SWIFT - Thanks in advance. Med vänlig hälsning | Best regards Kurt Radcliffe As for a mysterious agenda, i dont like liars or being lied to. I dont like seeing or hearing others being lied to or ripped off. My sense of justice goes haywire and i. want.justice.... Nor do i like thick headed simpletons who wont STFU or admit culpability, especially in the glaring face of obviousness. changing your name/opening yet another account 'to avoid the trolls' is absolute BULLSHIT. these people are lying, subvertive SCUM who will use ANY excuse, lie, distortion, to build up 'trustworthiness' with the sole intention of ripping someone off in the near future to be quite frank i think there should be a blanket ban on the IPs of liars, crooks, scammers, and fact distorters so they dont infect the rest of us. Greed is contagious, liars spread their filth among us willy nilly and most of you seem to lap it up and go on the offensive for the scammers & liars.... it seems you may have a warped agenda of your own, support all scammers, liars and rip-off merchants.... i wish you luck .... very bad luck! I asked for the bank info-and thanks for that. I hope that you did not direct the rest of the message at me "warped agenda, etc." I just joined the site a few weeks back, so whatever battles were fought here before-it is all new to me. |
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i requested a 2nd (3rd) batch refund a few days ago, i was asked to provide FULL Bank Account details.
i paid via BitPay...
Kurt says the refund will be completed 'shortly'
Are they just making it up as they go along now that butbutbutcoinorama & phakeonix arent doing it for them...?
FULL? All of SWIFT, IBAN, routing number and accounting number? Or just SWIFT, IBAN and accounting number? Thanks |
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Coinbase is for noobs who aren't verified yet at proper exchanges. So, it is easy to profit of them.
Yeah, right exchanges like MtGotcha, LOL Kudos to gotmilk_ for the reference |
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where they got the price they quote-out of thin air?
buy 729, sell 728 with btce at 719 and stamp at 695.
It makes no sense.
How could one buy/sell bitcoin (speculate) with these ridiculous prices?
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basis for prediction: if price stays the same-$700-$800, then with monthly difficulty rises at 50% (much less than current~72%) by October-November cost of electricity will be approximately the same as monthly bitcoin production (in most places). Considering that machines cost anywhere between $6000-10000 for 2-3TH, the situation would be untenable.
Therefore, BTC has to be at no less than $2500 somewhere between July and Nov (with 50% average monthly rise).
With 40% monthly diff rise-at least $1600
With 30%-at least $900
With anything below these $$ numbers-mining is in jeopardy.
Feb 2015 is too far to predict. Could be between 0 and 10000.
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* They maintained for the duration of the NPS window, that no competitors were shipping hashrate.
Just before the infamous newsletter I asked them about upgrade modules because obviously competitors were shipping, this was the reply: From KNC: "We are aware that some our competitors have started shipping. We will be releasing new products for our previous customers very shortly. A newsletter will be released in the coming week." Kind of goes against the maintaining that no competitors were shipping..... I got $20 that says that news doesn't come in the coming week or month. With all tension that we see here, I don't think that they have another month to wait. First-they already floated a trial balloon re "about 6 mo free hosting" Second-next week there is a large bitcoin conference in Germany that KnC is a gold/major sponsor of. Could be good publicity for them to release the news during the conference. |
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I looked at all hosting contracts-they are all BS and don't make any sense IF bitcoin is stable or slightly declining in value.
Same goes for mining in general. Apart from supporting the network, mining does not make economic sense, unless bitcoin is increasing in value.
However, in the last 2.5 months bitcoin went from $1100 to $700 on bitstamp while diffuculty had increased more than fivefold.
A few more months of this dichotomy and nobody would pay to buy a mining rig.
As Guo of Avalon fame had indicated: you have to have the computational power roughly equal to your bitcoin holdings.
In other words, if you own 20-100 bitcoins, you should currently have 1-5X10-6Xtotal network power(~20000th)=0.02-0.1Th=20-100Gh
In other words, much, much less than Jupiter or Neptune.
This is, of course, a minimal requirement, but there is no point to enrich someone and get more if you got no ROI
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So you have the mutually exclusive options [1][2]: - you get stuck with a >10K USD, 3TH 6 month contract, (starting at Q3?) with machines that you funded that are not what you ordered or [1][2][3] - you wait an indeterminate time for something to ship that apparently was not where the money went to [3] - you refund after having your money stalled there for months instead of having went with other miners [1] as part of Plan B, for all Neptune customers, we will be offering a free conversion to a hosted hashing package
quoted from their announcement, emphasis mine.
[2] http://www.coindesk.com/kncminer-offers-plan-b-case-neptune-miner-delivery-delay/[3] Wall Street Jornal piece shows that KnC made 15mil profit on 75 mil in sales last year. http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/02/06/cold-virtual-cash-a-bitcoin-mining-center-for-sweden/These are strange figures because they collected 28-34 mil on preorders, but hardly expensed anything yet on Neptune. If it is so, then they were $20 mil "in the hole' before collecting Neptune preorders. Alternatively, they were probably already in the black with Jupiters and then used at least half of Neptune money to make a prepayment or payment on the datacenter and/or unreleased Jupiters. I guess the golden question is really: is [3] really like that? Having extra options is great and nice even if the options are not good but using pre-order money to build something else and then giving those options... Batch 1 and 2 went last year right? 75M - (1.2K*10K + 1.2K*13K) = 47.4M which is indeed below the profit level of 60M, therefore Neptune money is indeed funding the farm? Input? Is Neptune money funding the farm? No doubt for me, but KnC Cole states otherwise. Impossible to find out unless you sue and go through discovery. I don't intend to do that. In fact, it all depends when they can give us 3Th/Neptune order-if in early April, I would say that it is very reasonable. If it is on July 1, then it is a very crappy deal indeed and it is not worth it. I think that they should formulate the plan very soon. |
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Wall Street Jornal piece shows that KnC made 15mil profit on 75 mil in sales last year. http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/02/06/cold-virtual-cash-a-bitcoin-mining-center-for-sweden/These are strange figures because they collected 28-34 mil on preorders, but hardly expensed anything yet on Neptune. If it is so, then they were $20 mil "in the hole' before collecting Neptune preorders. Alternatively, they were probably already in the black with Jupiters and then used at least half of Neptune money to make a prepayment or payment on the datacenter and/or unreleased Jupiters. If it is so, it would mean that plan B was their original intention all along. I will wait until i hear about hosting arrangements, then decide. |
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Most of the preditctions are totally wrong.
Many profit calculators do not consider that most of those that have mining hardware are individuals who have , in most cases, low-cost and low power consumption hardware. But I think these represent 60% of all.
With the current costs of hardware and eletricity only a few will continue mining Bitcoin and then the difficulty magically settle with increases of a maximum of 15-20 %
Many calculators do not take into account the physical limitations on a fixed percentage increase per month. For the difficulty to double in the next month 20PH of new hardware has to ship. In order for that trend to continue, from Mar-Apr 40PH of new hardware ships. After that, 80PH of new hardware has to ship. The massive increases seen in the last year are because of the following: GPU -> 1st gen ASIC = ~ 8571% increase per unit 1st ASIC -> 2nd ASIC = ~ 500% increase per unit 2nd ASIC -> 3rd ASIC = ~ 300% increase per unit. Since we're currently in the move from 2nd to 3rd gen ASIC, what we've already experienced is the GPU -> 2nd gen increase which is ~70,000% per unit. Now compare that to the ~300% increase moving from 2nd -> 3rd. There's still some rough territory to cover, but the bulk of the massive percentage increases is over. Caveat: dont' confuse percentage and magnitude. I agree that trend will decrease, but to what and when? I don't think that it is very predictable. Difficulty was on a rampage in Dec, Jan and still going strong with few of the stated majors shipping (cointerra and hashfast just started). Do you know chinese shipping capacity? What are 21e6 doing? What some other "smart" governments or private individuals doing? It is unknowable. |
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I played with mining.thegenesisblock.com calculator
The only way this would be profitable in $$ terms (forget about bitcoin!) would be if bitcoin price rise to at least $1500 and mining starts in April or price to $2500 and mining in May or price to $4000 and mining starts in June. All of this with 72% difficulty rise in a month that we are currently at (for the last 3mo on average).
If you peek at the projected difficulty in 2017 you would see that the total surface of the earth would not be enough for all the chips needed for that difficulty  I pity highschoolers who have to call others names in order to make a point. That said, three months projection is NOT a 3 year projection, duh! 70-80% monthly projection made 3 months ago by the referenced site turned out to be pretty accurate, but go ahead, make a better one....crickets. that genesis block calc is garbage Not perfect by any means, but gives rough estimates for 2-3 months plus it is easier to compare different machines. You can adjust difficulty rise manually as well. I get it that it cannot adjust difficulty at varied % going forward, but as a short term tool it is OK-gave approximately correct projections for Feb14 in Nov13. I tried several other calculators-they all work to some degree-coinplorer and bitcoinx.com being probably the best. |
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I played with mining.thegenesisblock.com calculator
The only way this would be profitable in $$ terms (forget about bitcoin!) would be if bitcoin price rise to at least $1500 and mining starts in April or price to $2500 and mining in May or price to $4000 and mining starts in June. All of this with 72% difficulty rise in a month that we are currently at (for the last 3mo on average).
If you peek at the projected difficulty in 2017 you would see that the total surface of the earth would not be enough for all the chips needed for that difficulty I pity highschoolers who have to call others names in order to make a point. That said, three months projection is NOT a 3 year projection, duh! 70-80% monthly projection made 3 months ago by the referenced site turned out to be pretty accurate, but go ahead, make a better one....crickets. |
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I played with mining.thegenesisblock.com calculator
The only way this would be profitable in $$ terms (forget about bitcoin!) would be if bitcoin price rise to at least $1500 and mining starts in April or price to $2500 and mining in May or price to $4000 and mining starts in June. All of this with 72% difficulty rise in a month that we are currently at (for the last 3mo on average).
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knc are scammers.
we gave them our Money to build neptunes, but they used it to build worlds bigges mining rig for them self.
so this is a scam for the law.
we should sue them.
Ummm. no? You gave them money to receive a neptune in exchange. If you get a neptune, they are not scammers. What they do with the money isn't your business. The debate would be about what Neptune is? Is Neptune a 3th/s of hashing power in Q1/Q2 or is Neptune necessarily a box with 3th/s hashing power. If it is "just" hashing power, than delivering on plan B is OK. I am sure that it is agreeble with some people, but not with everyone. If you ordered sea bass sushi in a restaurant, but was brought equally priced smaller amount of salmon or even caviar-would you agree to this transaction? |
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So they Intend to Build a Farm that's capable of delivering the Hash Rate for all Pre-ordered Neptunes.
Then they build all pre-ordered Neptunes, the Network diff is going to be fecking mmmmm Difficult.
C_C
I think that their intention is OK, just wording was not the best. As I see it they are saying the following: 1. Neptune will be delayed (most likely-duh!) 2. KnC will build a bunch of bare bones Jupiters (or call them Io or Europa for obvious reasons), connect them to data center, hopefully, before q2 end. Using these machines, KnC will GIVE us 3th of hashing per Neptune order. 3. This arrangement will be in effect until 20nm Neptune is ready, at which point (Q3 or even Q4) you will have a choice of getting a physical machine (20nm Neptune) or a 28nm to 20nm replacement cards at the data center. |
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A simple read on plan B: Knc will give people with neptune orders 3Th of mining power that would be hosted in Sweden (probably/hopefully sometime in Q2 and NOT on July 1!. Once Neptune (20nm) is produced in Q3-Q4, they will give you an option to replace your 28nm chips with 20nm hashing chips while maintaining your hash rate (or slightly increasing it) in lieu of sending you the actual machine.
You mean the hosted compensation while Neptunes aren't yet available might be linked to a forfeiture of ever taking possession of the eventual Neptune or do you mean compensation from their hosted 28mm farm then when Neptunes become available we then still have the choice to take possession or allow them to host? the latter, not the former. I will press on with a dividend and "rights offer" idea. We already have a precedent for this in ASICminer. If data center will be essentially built with "neptune" funds, then an idea to give us an ability to get a dividend stream from data center expansion makes sense |
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A simple read on plan B: Knc will give people with neptune orders 3Th of mining power that would be hosted in Sweden (probably/hopefully sometime in Q2 and NOT on July 1!. Once Neptune (20nm) is produced in Q3-Q4, they will give you an option to replace your 28nm chips with 20nm hashing chips while maintaining your hash rate (or slightly increasing it) in lieu of sending you the actual machine.
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I have a radical proposal to KnC that will decrease chances of order cancellation: 1. Issue a "Neptune rights offer". Each right (only for those with current and valid Neptune orders) will represent an ability to receive propotional bitcoin dividend stream (I suggest at least 70-80% of all bitcoins mined that come after expenses with 20-30% left that include management bonus, etc.). 2. A person with a valid Neptune order will be entitled to one right in lieu of already purchased Neptune and additional rights (for extra cash) if facility will be expanded in the future. A Neptune purchaser can refuse additional rights or keep them and maintain similar proportion of the expanding mining facility. This rights offer will be a perfect solution to finance future expansion. If so, it will be also a perfect vehicle for steady increase of $ (or €) to BTC conversion, which many might seek as I do. That said, I am keeping my Neptune orders, even with understanding that my inner geek was hoping to play with the actual machine  |
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