Looks like the bear triangle (as well as inverted cup and handle?) has finally been validated. Something, something, something.. complete?

If the long-term support line is broken, I see $250-266 as a likely target range.

I expect a cake if I'm right. For real this time, never got one for my $1200 top prediction

Again, quoting the StockCharts definition of a descending triangle (which has been my main source of info when it comes to learning TA)

Really? I was under the impression that a pennant had to have far less bias on either side, and according to the stockchart definition of a descending triangle; "The lows do not have to be exact, but should be within reasonable proximity of each other."
A <5% difference in the lows would seem to be within the margin of what is "reasonable proximity" (someone correct me if I'm wrong).

Looks like your inverted cup n' handle is becoming a likelier possibility, luc



That, combined with an (approximate) descending triangle, seem to be some pretty damn strong bearish signals if validated

$390 seems a likely candidate if this isn't bottom

That, or a ping on (and confirmation of) the potential longer term lower trendline, which would be around $410

Eventually the bubble-pop oscillation will reach such a high frequency it will inevitably result in stabilization of growth, but on a larger scale be part of a macrobubble, which eventually pops, rises, pops again, all faster and faster until equilibrium is once again attained, but only as part of yet another, larger bubble..

Everything is fractal. It is known.

*drops more acid*

[optimistic]A fractal price model could also support one final bubble before a major bear market if the summer 2012 rise is considered too insignificant (or whatever technical justification befits that) to count as a proper wave. [/optimistic]

No idea if you meant my post in lucif's thread, probably not lol but anyway


Price did quickly pierce SMA200 with a bounce near floor, just as predicted and just as it happened in the April crash. Historic comparative analysis has served me extremely well in the past, so I wouldn't be surprised if it holds now too (meaning bear market should be over). However luc recently made a post pointing out a potential inverted cup n' handle pattern, so I'm not betting on any horses yet

lol @ everyone flaming "greedy" traders who "only care about making money" when the only reason they're holding is to see their BTC value increase.

According to my nooby historic comparative analysis $400 should be the local bottom/end of wave C. But then again I'm surprised (and a tad bit disappointed) it only stayed there for such a short amount of time. Perhaps a revisit and even breaking lower is possible if this retrace is seen as subwave 2/3?

lol

Posting for posterity!

Seems to me a drop to SMA200 on Stamp is getting more likely. Support line of the triangle has been slightly pierced, price is persistently staying there and the candles are getting more squeezed. Given the insignificant distance I suspect a downwards breakout would carry enough momentum to at least short term pierce SMA200 as well, possibly towards bottom or close to it as a repeat of April post-crash patterns.

Would love if some more competent analyst could confirm with actual TA and not just this nonsense

edit: Pic for clearer conveyance of meaning

If I were to guess I'd say all potential whistles have been bought by whales/inside info traders

I have said this in another thread, but I'll give my input here as well: I think the major effect of Gox dying will be in the public trust of the exchange ecosystem. A lot of people have been living in the dream that they (like banks or whatever) are infallible and your coins can be trusted with them. If even the previously biggest player Gox can go down and take people's fund with them, it is only natural that it will fuel distrust in the rest of the exchanges.

The best way for Gox to go at this point would be a slow death with people somehow getting their money out as it approaches 0. This would reinforce the idea that exchanges at least have some semblance of credibility, even if it does not always appear so. That said, the entire circus going on right now will still have damaged the reputability of exchanges in the public's eyes.
However, if Gox were to suddenly declare bankruptcy and make it official that any money left in there is forfeit, that might just be the major push for a long-term transition towards decentralized peer-to-peer alternatives rather than reliance on central exchanges.

Also, on the matter of analyzing Gox prices, for me it's just a thing of curiosity to see in what way the little TA I know still applies to a clearly dying market

What government, exactly? Could you give me some links to him saying this?

Oh boy, this is a spectacle! And volume is still fairly low in contrast to the extreme volatility, which tells me this train hasn't even begun derailing.

Well that just happened. Messed up my triangle too. Damn you whale  

I find the lack of triangles in this thread disturbing



When last a continuation pattern appeared after a major drop ($1.2K to $570) it turned out to be false and broke to the upside. However, this one seems to have a clear bearish bias. Hell if you compensate for the first drop a bit it becomes a descending triangle.

Based on my noobish TA then this means Gox is dropping even lower very soon. Interested to see how it plays out, and how low it's gonna go.

Maybe this is the time to note my post was intended to be a joke