merkin51
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February 17, 2014, 01:43:12 PM |
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Just broke $266, which was the high of wave 3. This is significant for psychological reasons
And yet, in my estimation, and the coming mean-reversion bounces notwithstanding, the bear market in Bitcoin is just getting started
266 was broken on btce and mtgox. More than obvious overlap Official bears taking the Gox price and a forced liquidation price in a illiquid market seriously. You can't get more contrarian signs than that. Hmm I do agree, which is a shame as I think there is a lot of good discussion in this thread. Forgetting about the btce incident and the Gox mess, there are still a lot of TA signs pointing to a continued bear market.
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fonzie
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February 17, 2014, 02:50:34 PM |
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Don´t forget Bitfinex(100$), so far 3 out of 4(5) exchanges, wen´t down hard. If the bitfinex book had been connected to Bitstamp at that time, we might have seen 2-400$ Bitcoins over there too.
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"To know death, Otto, you have to fuck life in the gallbladder" www.hsbc.com - The world´s local bank "These FUDsters are insane egomaniacs that just want cheap BTC" - oblivi
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masterluc (OP)
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February 17, 2014, 03:44:32 PM |
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I see some signs of short term reversal (my last pic above plus this one). Of course price performance on mtgox is more than disturbing. So be cautious.
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oda.krell
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February 17, 2014, 07:50:59 PM |
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2 parallel channels and a sort of speculative trend.First: Don't get hung up about the 'red circle' wick. I know it's outside the channel, but you know, parallel channel lends it a bit of extra credibility yadda yadda. My point being: There's a chance we're going back into the orange channel, which is not quite as terrible as the red one, but slowly grinding downwards. In other words, before declaring this bear market as being over I need to see some more evidence. Then again: It's a speculative one, I know. But don't dismiss completely out of hand, 3 pretty clear points of contact, and some decent volume going along with them. This could, perhaps, maybe, just saying, mark the bottom of our correction.
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windjc
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February 17, 2014, 08:20:02 PM |
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2 parallel channels and a sort of speculative trend.First: Don't get hung up about the 'red circle' wick. I know it's outside the channel, but you know, parallel channel lends it a bit of extra credibility yadda yadda. My point being: There's a chance we're going back into the orange channel, which is not quite as terrible as the red one, but slowly grinding downwards. In other words, before declaring this bear market as being over I need to see some more evidence. Then again: It's a speculative one, I know. But don't dismiss completely out of hand, 3 pretty clear points of contact, and some decent volume going along with them. This could, perhaps, maybe, just saying, mark the bottom of our correction. These are pretty much my thoughts exactly. However, I do think we are destined to test the 200 SMA on Bitstamp. It sits just over $450 today and will be at $500 within a couple of weeks and $550 in 4-5 weeks or so. So, while I think that long term trendline might tell us something about where we are going in the future, I think we probably break down below it for at least a little bit, unless Stamp can fend off a flash crash over the next 4-5 weeks.
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lebing
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Enabling the maximal migration
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February 18, 2014, 07:56:16 AM |
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2 parallel channels and a sort of speculative trend.First: Don't get hung up about the 'red circle' wick. I know it's outside the channel, but you know, parallel channel lends it a bit of extra credibility yadda yadda. My point being: There's a chance we're going back into the orange channel, which is not quite as terrible as the red one, but slowly grinding downwards. In other words, before declaring this bear market as being over I need to see some more evidence. Then again: It's a speculative one, I know. But don't dismiss completely out of hand, 3 pretty clear points of contact, and some decent volume going along with them. This could, perhaps, maybe, just saying, mark the bottom of our correction. These are pretty much my thoughts exactly. However, I do think we are destined to test the 200 SMA on Bitstamp. It sits just over $450 today and will be at $500 within a couple of weeks and $550 in 4-5 weeks or so. So, while I think that long term trendline might tell us something about where we are going in the future, I think we probably break down below it for at least a little bit, unless Stamp can fend off a flash crash over the next 4-5 weeks. I would be very surprised to see a daily close below 550 on stamp. I agree we could stagnate close here for a little while until we come in contact with the SMA 200 however.
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Bro, do you even blockchain? -E Voorhees
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oda.krell
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February 19, 2014, 04:30:31 PM |
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I can't shake the feeling that we're getting nearer to the end of the consolidation/bear market, but on the other hand it looks to me like we might have a re-test of 600 ahead of us.
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BitcoinBarrel
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Fill Your Barrel with Bitcoins!
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February 19, 2014, 05:48:09 PM |
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New Data just in:
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▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ▄██████████████▄ ▄█████████████████▌ ▐███████████████████▌ ▄█████████████████████▄ ███████████████████████ ▐███████████████████████ ▐███████████████████████ ▐███████████████████████ ▐███████████████████████ ██████████████████████▀ ▀████████████████████▀ ▀██████████████████ ▀▀████████████▀▀
| .
| .....█ .....█ .....█ .....█ .....█ .....█ | | █ █ █ █ █ █ |
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lebing
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Enabling the maximal migration
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February 19, 2014, 06:56:57 PM |
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New Data just in: I will see your squiggly lines and raise you
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Bro, do you even blockchain? -E Voorhees
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myself
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chaos is fun...…damental :)
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February 20, 2014, 07:36:50 AM |
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Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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masterluc (OP)
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February 20, 2014, 07:50:08 AM |
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Yeah, total fuck )) No money from feds, traders withdraw money from weak markets first.
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smoothie
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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
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February 20, 2014, 07:59:35 AM |
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Yeah, total fuck )) No money from feds, traders withdraw money from weak markets first.
Guess everyone can stop using GOX charts now. lol
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███████████████████████████████████████
,╓p@@███████@╗╖, ,p████████████████████N, d█████████████████████████b d██████████████████████████████æ ,████²█████████████████████████████, ,█████ ╙████████████████████╨ █████y ██████ `████████████████` ██████ ║██████ Ñ███████████` ███████ ███████ ╩██████Ñ ███████ ███████ ▐▄ ²██╩ a▌ ███████ ╢██████ ▐▓█▄ ▄█▓▌ ███████ ██████ ▐▓▓▓▓▌, ▄█▓▓▓▌ ██████─ ▐▓▓▓▓▓▓█,,▄▓▓▓▓▓▓▌ ▐▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▌ ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓─ ²▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓╩ ▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀ ²▀▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀▀` ²²² ███████████████████████████████████████
| . ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM My PGP fingerprint is A764D833. History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ . LEALANA BITCOIN GRIM REAPER SILVER COINS. |
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oda.krell
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February 20, 2014, 08:39:11 AM |
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Why are we even talking about gox prices still? They don't trade the same currency pair anymore.
The question is, if, or to what extent the other markets will follow. So far I'm pretty surprised by the resilience of stamp price. I still don't see 600 last, tbh.
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bitcodo
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February 20, 2014, 08:46:37 AM |
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Why are we even talking about gox prices still? They don't trade the same currency pair anymore.
The question is, if, or to what extent the other markets will follow. So far I'm pretty surprised by the resilience of stamp price. I still don't see 600 last, tbh.
The answer is in your post. You are surprised that stamp is not following gox? If yes, then that means that you give gox price much authority.
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oda.krell
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February 20, 2014, 11:04:47 AM Last edit: February 20, 2014, 11:15:15 AM by oda.krell |
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Why are we even talking about gox prices still? They don't trade the same currency pair anymore.
The question is, if, or to what extent the other markets will follow. So far I'm pretty surprised by the resilience of stamp price. I still don't see 600 last, tbh.
The answer is in your post. You are surprised that stamp is not following gox? If yes, then that means that you give gox price much authority. That's a bit of a selective interpretation of what I wrote. I meant, we don't need to talk much about, as in: analyze gox price anymore. It's more or less approaching zero. However, I didn't say gox price doesn't *matter* anymore. It does matter, although maybe less than I thought, hence: bitstamp still stable. It's enough to point it how low it is, and then do the detail work on other exchanges to see where we're going, and more importantly, if (and how much) the gox price action is picked up on other exchanges. EDIT: paraphrased to make my point more clear
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oda.krell
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February 20, 2014, 11:33:25 AM |
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One more remark: As much as I would hope for Bitstamp and the other markets to remain largely unaffected by gox shenanigans, I don't really consider it possible. Volume on gox (whether it's real or not) just surpassed stamp again, on 24h and 30d scale. When all of this is over, I sincerely hope gox will be done for finally, but I can't see how stamp will resist the black hole that is stamp price.
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Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure. Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
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F-bernanke
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February 20, 2014, 11:35:08 AM |
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Look at the USD volume (that's what matters), and see that Stamp has higher Volume. (BTC volume is obviously higher because of the insane low prices).
Also the pure panic inside fort gox causes alot of volume.
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oda.krell
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February 20, 2014, 11:44:26 AM |
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Look at the USD volume (that's what matters), and see that Stamp has higher Volume. (BTC volume is obviously higher because of the insane low prices).
Also the pure panic inside fort gox causes alot of volume.
Sure. Both valid points. But do you really think the rest of the btc world will remain completely calm as the former leading exchange tumbles into the abyss. Gox' failure is partly priced in already, sure, but I don't see gox going to sub-100 coins while the rest of the world stays at 600+. Something needs to give, and if gox doesn't go up, the others will go down, to some degree.
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Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure. Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
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merkin51
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February 20, 2014, 11:49:24 AM |
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Look at the USD volume (that's what matters), and see that Stamp has higher Volume. (BTC volume is obviously higher because of the insane low prices).
Also the pure panic inside fort gox causes alot of volume.
Sure. Both valid points. But do you really think the rest of the btc world will remain completely calm as the former leading exchange tumbles into the abyss. Gox' failure is partly priced in already, sure, but I don't see gox going to sub-100 coins while the rest of the world stays at 600+. Something needs to give, and if gox doesn't go up, the others will go down, to some degree. I don't think it's the Gox price that is directly effecting other exchanges as such, it's the Gox shambles in general causing panic and lack of confidence in btc across the board. And the worse the Gox situation gets, the worse the panicking. Sure many of us here started selling when it was becomming clear what was happening. The lack of any headline positive news for bitcoin in recent weeks hasn't helped.
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F-bernanke
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February 20, 2014, 11:55:25 AM |
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Look at the USD volume (that's what matters), and see that Stamp has higher Volume. (BTC volume is obviously higher because of the insane low prices).
Also the pure panic inside fort gox causes alot of volume.
Sure. Both valid points. But do you really think the rest of the btc world will remain completely calm as the former leading exchange tumbles into the abyss. Gox' failure is partly priced in already, sure, but I don't see gox going to sub-100 coins while the rest of the world stays at 600+. Something needs to give, and if gox doesn't go up, the others will go down, to some degree. Yes, I agree.
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