Analysis

[masterluc]

How about inverted cup and handle? )

[RyNinDaCleM]

How about inverted cup and handle? )

Interesting thought, there!

[bitstumped]

Hey guys, first time posting but I've been following this thread for about 4 months. Let me say thank you to all of you who contribute analysis.

What do others think of Luc's inverted cup and handle suggestion? And, where do you think we might see a bottom?

[lebing]

What do others think of Luc's inverted cup and handle suggestion?

Its a dream. No fucking way is that going to happen.
Worst case scenarios is another dip into the low 500s, but we will not be seeing sub 500 again.

[Tzupy]

IMO the inverted cup and handle scenario can only happen if Chinese exchanges would be shut down by their government.
In such a case, most coins from China would be cashed out on Western exchanges, and the result would be a death spiral
similar to the one seen on MtGox before shutting down. If Chinese exchanges will keep operating, this bear market is going
to take a long time to fully deflate. Looking at Huobi, the bottom of the first sub-wave after wave B is significantly higher than
the bottom of corrective wave A, so Huobi is for now less bearish than Bitstamp, maybe there's still some demand in China.

[thefiniteidea]

Been a while since we've seen anything in this thread.

I'll just leave this here....

[JustAnotherSheep]

Looks like your inverted cup n' handle is becoming a likelier possibility, luc



That, combined with an (approximate) descending triangle, seem to be some pretty damn strong bearish signals if validated

[lebing]

Looks like your inverted cup n' handle is becoming a likelier possibility, luc



That, combined with an (approximate) descending triangle, seem to be some pretty damn strong bearish signals if validated

this is a bullish pennant.

[JustAnotherSheep]

this is a bullish pennant.

Really? I was under the impression that a pennant had to have far less bias on either side, and according to the stockchart definition of a descending triangle; "The lows do not have to be exact, but should be within reasonable proximity of each other."
A <5% difference in the lows would seem to be within the margin of what is "reasonable proximity" (someone correct me if I'm wrong).

[Pruden]

If a descending triangle is bearish, stocks' ascending triangle above is bullish? 

[RyNinDaCleM]

Triangles are continuation patterns. They break in the direction they are entered. If the original drop to 380 was an A, then it's bearish. If it's a 4 to the 1200 tops 3, then it will break up.

It can, however, also be counted as a simple ABC correction where we are in the beginnings of a 5th wave down for the C

[JustAnotherSheep]

Triangles are continuation patterns. They break in the direction they are entered. If the original drop to 380 was an A, then it's bearish. If it's a 4 to the 1200 tops 3, then it will break up.

Again, quoting the StockCharts definition of a descending triangle (which has been my main source of info when it comes to learning TA)

The descending triangle is a bearish formation that usually forms during a downtrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when descending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of an uptrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, descending triangles are bearish patterns that indicate distribution.

[lebing]

What do others think of Luc's inverted cup and handle suggestion?

Its a dream. No fucking way is that going to happen.
Worst case scenarios is another dip into the low 500s, but we will not be seeing sub 500 again.

 

Should have known that China would be China. Nothing is for sure in bitcoin. If it does come true that on the 15th its banned in China then 400 probably wont hold. Otherwise I would very surprised if we broke the bottom of the pennant (at 400).

[RyNinDaCleM]

If a descending triangle is bearish, stocks' ascending triangle above is bullish? 

No! That's called an ending diagonal or a wedge. A triangle has either flat top/ascending bottom, flat bottom/descending top, or a more symmetrical descending top/ascending bottom.
If both lines are ascending or descending and not parallel, then it's a wedge.

[masterluc]

Guys. price is in negative weekly BB territory, in negative daily BB territory and additionaly bellow daily sma 200.

It could be a bullish pennant (with horizontal triangle?!) - I don't exclude. But I stay very bearish.

However this question will be resolved very soon.

PS. My pic with inverted cup and handle was invalidated of course.

[arepo]

it's interesting to see trading sites and others say that "pattern X is generally bullish/bearish" as if they were citing a statistical study that showed this result >50% of the time. triangle continuation patterns are only continuation patterns until they break counter-trend

from my own work in Bitcoin, it seems that these patterns are very sensitive to their price environments (that is if they occurred within an uptrend or dowtrend; near, below, or above the previous high/low; and if the previous movement pushed the price into overbought or oversold territory).

once the environment has been factored in, i think that there is something to these patterns having a consistent "context-sensitive" bias. but it is ridiculous to make a blanket statement about them, not only because of context-sensitivity but also because i imagine the behavior is different in different markets (stocks vs Bitcoin).

--arepo

[oda.krell]

it's interesting to see trading sites and others say that "pattern X is generally bullish/bearish" as if they were citing a statistical study that showed this result >50% of the time. triangle continuation patterns are only continuation patterns until they break counter-trend

from my own work in Bitcoin, it seems that these patterns are very sensitive to their price environments (that is if they occurred within an uptrend or dowtrend; near, below, or above the previous high/low; and if the previous movement pushed the price into overbought or oversold territory).

once the environment has been factored in, i think that there is something to these patterns having a consistent "context-sensitive" bias. but it is ridiculous to make a blanket statement about them, not only because of context-sensitivity but also because i imagine the behavior is different in different markets (stocks vs Bitcoin).

--arepo

Interestingly enough, the Kirkpatrick/Dahlquist TA book has a (smallish) section on empirical studies that were done about patterns. I'll have to look up the details, but the continuation patterns flag and pennant seemed by far the most reliable ones *however* they were (IIRC) all short to midterm patterns, i.e. way shorter duration than what was proposed above (spanning from December to now).

[g4c]

Log scale chart of complete bitstamp USD history.



Why might the latest pennant be such a different beast to the previous ones?

[arepo]

Log scale chart of complete bitstamp USD history.



Why might the latest pennant be such a different beast to the previous ones?

well, we're currently resting on the bottom support in your figure. wouldn't this model be falsified if we broke below?

[arepo]

it's interesting to see trading sites and others say that "pattern X is generally bullish/bearish" as if they were citing a statistical study that showed this result >50% of the time. triangle continuation patterns are only continuation patterns until they break counter-trend

from my own work in Bitcoin, it seems that these patterns are very sensitive to their price environments (that is if they occurred within an uptrend or dowtrend; near, below, or above the previous high/low; and if the previous movement pushed the price into overbought or oversold territory).

once the environment has been factored in, i think that there is something to these patterns having a consistent "context-sensitive" bias. but it is ridiculous to make a blanket statement about them, not only because of context-sensitivity but also because i imagine the behavior is different in different markets (stocks vs Bitcoin).

--arepo

Interestingly enough, the Kirkpatrick/Dahlquist TA book has a (smallish) section on empirical studies that were done about patterns. I'll have to look up the details, but the continuation patterns flag and pennant seemed by far the most reliable ones *however* they were (IIRC) all short to midterm patterns, i.e. way shorter duration than what was proposed above (spanning from December to now).

thanks for the reference. is this the book you're talking about?