Analysis

[merkin51]

Just broke $266, which was the high of wave 3. This is significant for psychological reasons

And yet, in my estimation, and the coming mean-reversion bounces notwithstanding, the bear market in Bitcoin is just getting started

266 was broken on btce and mtgox. More than obvious overlap

Official bears taking the Gox price and a forced liquidation price in a illiquid market seriously. You can't get more contrarian signs than that.

Hmm I do agree, which is a shame as I think there is a lot of good discussion in this thread. Forgetting about the btce incident and the Gox mess, there are still a lot of TA signs pointing to a continued bear market.

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[fonzie]

Don´t forget Bitfinex(100$), so far 3 out of 4(5) exchanges, wen´t down hard.
If the bitfinex book had been connected to Bitstamp at that time, we might have seen 2-400$ Bitcoins over there too.

[masterluc]

I see some signs of short term reversal (my last pic above plus this one). Of course price performance on mtgox is more than disturbing. So be cautious.

[oda.krell]

2 parallel channels and a sort of speculative trend.

First:



Don't get hung up about the 'red circle' wick. I know it's outside the channel, but you know, parallel channel lends it a bit of extra credibility yadda yadda.

My point being: There's a chance we're going back into the orange channel, which is not quite as terrible as the red one, but slowly grinding downwards. In other words, before declaring this bear market as being over I need to see some more evidence.

Then again:



It's a speculative one, I know. But don't dismiss completely out of hand, 3 pretty clear points of contact, and some decent volume going along with them. This could, perhaps, maybe, just saying, mark the bottom of our correction.

[windjc]

2 parallel channels and a sort of speculative trend.

First:



Don't get hung up about the 'red circle' wick. I know it's outside the channel, but you know, parallel channel lends it a bit of extra credibility yadda yadda.

My point being: There's a chance we're going back into the orange channel, which is not quite as terrible as the red one, but slowly grinding downwards. In other words, before declaring this bear market as being over I need to see some more evidence.

Then again:



It's a speculative one, I know. But don't dismiss completely out of hand, 3 pretty clear points of contact, and some decent volume going along with them. This could, perhaps, maybe, just saying, mark the bottom of our correction.

These are pretty much my thoughts exactly. However, I do think we are destined to test the 200 SMA on Bitstamp. It sits just over $450 today and will be at $500 within a couple of weeks and $550 in 4-5 weeks or so. So, while I think that long term trendline might tell us something about where we are going in the future, I think we probably break down below it for at least a little bit, unless Stamp can fend off a flash crash over the next 4-5 weeks.

[lebing]

2 parallel channels and a sort of speculative trend.

First:



Don't get hung up about the 'red circle' wick. I know it's outside the channel, but you know, parallel channel lends it a bit of extra credibility yadda yadda.

My point being: There's a chance we're going back into the orange channel, which is not quite as terrible as the red one, but slowly grinding downwards. In other words, before declaring this bear market as being over I need to see some more evidence.

Then again:



It's a speculative one, I know. But don't dismiss completely out of hand, 3 pretty clear points of contact, and some decent volume going along with them. This could, perhaps, maybe, just saying, mark the bottom of our correction.

These are pretty much my thoughts exactly. However, I do think we are destined to test the 200 SMA on Bitstamp. It sits just over $450 today and will be at $500 within a couple of weeks and $550 in 4-5 weeks or so. So, while I think that long term trendline might tell us something about where we are going in the future, I think we probably break down below it for at least a little bit, unless Stamp can fend off a flash crash over the next 4-5 weeks.

I would be very surprised to see a daily close below 550 on stamp. I agree we could stagnate close here for a little while until we come in contact with the SMA 200 however.

[oda.krell]

I can't shake the feeling that we're getting nearer to the end of the consolidation/bear market, but on the other hand it looks to me like we might have a re-test of 600 ahead of us.

[BitcoinBarrel]

New Data just in:

[lebing]

New Data just in:

I will see your squiggly lines and raise you

[myself]

i made something in log(logarithmic) scale so some of you can think/ponder about it and other to flame about it



info to read if you need to http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fibonacciretracement.asp


have a nice day

doom

[masterluc]

Yeah, total fuck )) No money from feds, traders withdraw money from weak markets first.

[smoothie]

Yeah, total fuck )) No money from feds, traders withdraw money from weak markets first.

Guess everyone can stop using GOX charts now. lol

[oda.krell]

Why are we even talking about gox prices still? They don't trade the same currency pair anymore.

The question is, if, or to what extent the other markets will follow. So far I'm pretty surprised by the resilience of stamp price. I still don't see 600 last, tbh.

[bitcodo]

Why are we even talking about gox prices still? They don't trade the same currency pair anymore.

The question is, if, or to what extent the other markets will follow. So far I'm pretty surprised by the resilience of stamp price. I still don't see 600 last, tbh.

The answer is in your post. You are surprised that stamp is not following gox? If yes, then that means that you give gox price much authority.

[oda.krell]

Why are we even talking about gox prices still? They don't trade the same currency pair anymore.

The question is, if, or to what extent the other markets will follow. So far I'm pretty surprised by the resilience of stamp price. I still don't see 600 last, tbh.

The answer is in your post. You are surprised that stamp is not following gox? If yes, then that means that you give gox price much authority.

That's a bit of a selective interpretation of what I wrote. I meant, we don't need to talk much about, as in: analyze gox price anymore. It's more or less approaching zero.

However, I didn't say gox price doesn't *matter* anymore. It does matter, although maybe less than I thought, hence: bitstamp still stable.

It's enough to point it how low it is, and then do the detail work on other exchanges to see where we're going, and more importantly, if (and how much) the gox price action is picked up on other exchanges.

EDIT: paraphrased to make my point more clear

[oda.krell]

One more remark:

As much as I would hope for Bitstamp and the other markets to remain largely unaffected by gox shenanigans, I don't really consider it possible. Volume on gox (whether it's real or not) just surpassed stamp again, on 24h and 30d scale.



When all of this is over, I sincerely hope gox will be done for finally, but I can't see how stamp will resist the black hole that is stamp price.

[F-bernanke]

Look at the USD volume (that's what matters), and see that Stamp has higher Volume.
(BTC volume is obviously higher because of the insane low prices).

Also the pure panic inside fort gox causes alot of volume.

[oda.krell]

Look at the USD volume (that's what matters), and see that Stamp has higher Volume.
(BTC volume is obviously higher because of the insane low prices).

Also the pure panic inside fort gox causes alot of volume.

Sure. Both valid points.

But do you really think the rest of the btc world will remain completely calm as the former leading exchange tumbles into the abyss.

Gox' failure is partly priced in already, sure, but I don't see gox going to sub-100 coins while the rest of the world stays at 600+. Something needs to give, and if gox doesn't go up, the others will go down, to some degree.

[merkin51]

Look at the USD volume (that's what matters), and see that Stamp has higher Volume.
(BTC volume is obviously higher because of the insane low prices).

Also the pure panic inside fort gox causes alot of volume.

Sure. Both valid points.

But do you really think the rest of the btc world will remain completely calm as the former leading exchange tumbles into the abyss.

Gox' failure is partly priced in already, sure, but I don't see gox going to sub-100 coins while the rest of the world stays at 600+. Something needs to give, and if gox doesn't go up, the others will go down, to some degree.

I don't think it's the Gox price that is directly effecting other exchanges as such, it's the Gox shambles in general causing panic and lack of confidence in btc across the board. And the worse the Gox situation gets, the worse the panicking. Sure many of us here started selling when it was becomming clear what was happening. The lack of any headline positive news for bitcoin in recent weeks hasn't helped.

[F-bernanke]

Look at the USD volume (that's what matters), and see that Stamp has higher Volume.
(BTC volume is obviously higher because of the insane low prices).

Also the pure panic inside fort gox causes alot of volume.

Sure. Both valid points.

But do you really think the rest of the btc world will remain completely calm as the former leading exchange tumbles into the abyss.

Gox' failure is partly priced in already, sure, but I don't see gox going to sub-100 coins while the rest of the world stays at 600+. Something needs to give, and if gox doesn't go up, the others will go down, to some degree.

Yes, I agree.