Yeah of course "words" are not proof, but words have meanings in the event that you happen to attempt to read, organize to understand beyond the mere "words on a page".

I know that it might not matter what a mere fan wants, but I am still rooting for the Hairy or the Hairy area of the price predictions to win (even though Hairy does not want to win).

I could give less than two shits about the potential winnenings of either you or JSRAW.

You two (and your potential winnenings) and your lil video too, can go suck bags of dicks, as far as I am concerned   (from one fan's non-emotional perspective).

 

Stop messing with the hypothetical, dragonvslinux.  You party poop.   

That is an amazing fantasy possibility.  Go shooting up to $100k and then drop back down to $6.5k. 

What's the timeline on such a wild ride?  Let's make it a quick one.  That would be more exciting... though it might cause some people to lose rather than make money, but still a good experiment.   

How about go up to $100k in 8 months, and drop back down in 4 months.  That would put us back at $6.5k for next Christmas, and for our relatives to pleasantly ask:  "How's that bitcoin thing going?"

 

Already mentioned by MicG.

More BTC than you had a few months ago?  That should make you happy, no?  Or are you one  of those who is confused about the value of accumulating more bitcoin?

Sure I had already noticed that you are a lot more short-term bearish than me, and I my investment practices of buying on the way down and selling on the way up does not really attempt to get into any specifics regarding what I might believe the BTC price is going to do in the shorter term, except that I anticipate in the longer term that BTC prices are going to be higher than they are today.  So, dragging out to 2021, does seem a bit much, even though I remain prepared in case that scenario plays out.. I am NOT going to change my practices based on something that may or may not happen.. and frankly I believe that the odds for up are greater than the odds for down, currently, maybe it is only slightly greater, but it is still greater from my current thinking.



Hopefully, your measures of utility are correct from your own thinking.  Of course, price is a product of both speculation and utility, so I would not want to get too narrowed in on some kinds of price indication necessities (has to be assertions).



Yes, we will see what happens in terms of adoption and/or other pressures upon the supply.  Seems to me that bearwhales are going to attempt to manipulate BTC's price down for as low as they can get it to go and for as long as they can.  But sometimes they just cannot keep the price down.  Whether we need to go lower from here may or not be known until we look back at the situation, and we have seen in previous halvenings, that the real pressures on the price, because of the reduced supply do not become felt until several months after the halvening.  I have my doubts about whether BTC prices can remained kept down until 2021, but we will see how it plays out.  I would not want to be inadequately prepared for UP in the event that further down does not happen from here... and we have surely witnessed a decent amount of that (lack of preparation for UP) in bitcoin's history.

Accordingly, accumulate and HODL and buying BTC on dips have continued to be the better ongoing long term strategies in bitcoin that have tended to work out quite well for those people following such strategies rather than attempting to time the market such as wait for lower and other fence sitting nonsense like that.  Selling after a correction and trying to buy back lower would likely even be a worse strategy that tries to time the market rather than just accumulating holding and buying on dips, but people can do whatever they are going to do... and see how it all plays out for them.

If anyone follows your dumbass bargain boyz meme, and hopefully no one is that dumb, then they may end up playing around too much with their attempt to time the BTC market rather than taking prudent steps.

Regarding your implication that I might not have an investment plan that is sufficiently solid, you are engaging in further dumb-ass attempts at diversionary tactics.

My suggestion has always been that BTC investors tailor their strategies to their own circumstances, which of course is going to involve considerations of cash flow, other investments, timeline, view of BTC as compared with other investments, risk tolerance and the amount time and skills they have available to manage their BTC fund and research further so that they can tweak their plan from time to time, as needed.


You remain a presumptuous dweeb-tard, and you don't know shit about my personal considerations and balancing of risks from my own perspective of what is good for me.



Stop using the train analogy on me, that more appropriately applies to your dumbass contentions about some fictitious and pretentious wannabe "know it alls" trying to time the market.

I already have a BTC related practice that has been implemented and honed over the past 6 years that works for me, which involves buying BTC as the price goes down.  Guess what has been happening?  The price has been going down, no?, which means what for me?

Of course, with the passage of time, I can tweak my BTC related strategies however I feel prudent based on my situation, including the fact that with the passage of time, more cash has likely come in and expenses likely have happened that might not be exactly as anticipated at an earlier date.

Hopefully, for their own good, those attention seeking jokesters don't get run over by a real train in their attempting to be funny and time the market.



Better to be a bit more responsible in regards to the whole accumulation and HODL matter.

JJG does not have a coin, you fucking dipwad.

What the fuck have i been doing in this thread for nearly 6 years?  Pumpening bitcoin, and no other fucking coin.  Stop being delusional, and spreading misinformation - otherwise gonna have to bring out batman, and you would not want that.  

What have you been doing for the past 3.5 years?  Getting more and more disgruntled because you mistakenly equated the then (2016) hack of bitfinex with the collapse of bitcoin, and you sold all your BTC for around $700.  You  have been hoping to buy back below $500 ever since, and you missed a sliver of an opportunity in August 2016 to buy back around $500.. and you have been whining the whole time ever since regarding your fairly obvious level of dumbness in getting on the wrong train.

Might be going down the TMI road, but health ideas should affect bitcoin investment ideas in terms of how much time might remain in your investment horizon, and what is your particular status whether accumulator, maintainer or liquidator.   

Some people have real solid health issues that could spring up upon them at any time, but even younger people can sometimes be surprised by some kind of issue that comes up to make them more serious about considering their own mortality.  Surely we have talked about it quite a bit in this thread, and I have even made some implications regarding my own thoughts about my timeline and how it might change. 

None of us longer term holders really want to be considering cashing out any bitcoin during a dip, but if some additional health matters suddenly come up, we might change our viewpoint (back to having options) because we are already in profits, versus someone who is more clearly still in the accumulation stages - which might be anyone who has average BTC costs that are not clearly profitable and maybe in the less than 2x price appreciation arena rather than being in a 4x to 10x or more price appreciation arena.

Another thing is that some BTC HODLers may have gotten into bitcoin early (I saw part of your story in the BSV thread), but then they did not take the opportunity (by hook or by crook) to establish a stronger starting position, so their current accumulation of BTC remains ongoing because they feel that their overall stake still remains relatively low, even if they got started in bitcoin much earlier than others.

Actually, I recognize that I got started much later in bitcoin than some people, and even started buying BTC at way higher prices than their initial investment, but they made some BIGGER mistakes along the way regarding either cashing out too much or not buying enough on the dips, so then my BTC holdings ended up becoming quite greater than theirs.  Of course, we all have boating accident issues, too - or something similar to that, so there is that concept, too.

Fair enough.  I kind of read back about some of sgbett's previous stances to better understand regarding his point of view situation.

So, ultimately merely because he believes that bitcoin is no longer the real bitcoin, the topic of this particular thread has NOT changed to something other than being about bitcoin, as far as I can tell.  And, maybe that is where the Schelling point concepts come to play out?

Of course, anyone can attempt to make certain arguments about bitcoin transitioning to some other status or needing to transition towards a certain status, but that seems to be a topic of another thread - when this one is about bitcoin prices and bitcoin price dynamics, rather than being about "what is bitcoin?" 

I am not against loans or anything like that, but it is good to have all your finances in order.

Dollar cost averaging is a proven method that works in the long run.  You should be trying the easier methods before more complicated leveraging matters, but in the end the choice is yours, and you need to figure your whole situation.

I started buying BTC in 2013 at the top of the then cycle, and I had an initial budget for six months and then after six months I extended it.  Pretty much by the end of the year I had reached my target, but the BTC price dynamics are surely different now as compared with late 2013, yet you still should be considering a budget and a methodology that works for you and does not put you in any stress position while preparing for the price to go in either direction.

What i usually suggest is that if someone wants to establish a stake in BTC that they establish an initial budget that accounts for money available now and future cash flow.  If you have $6k available now and you have $6k that is going to be available for BTC investment through your cashflow over the next 6 months, then you can pretty much assure that you have a $12k budget over the next 6 months.

You can divide the $6k that is available now into three parts.  $2k each.  1/3 invest immediately, 1/3 schedule to buy on BTC price dips and 1/3 to dollar cost average over the next 6 months.   As your $6k of additional income that is allocated for BTC comes in the next 6 months, you can do the same.  Buy 1/3 right away 1/3 to your buying on dips stash and 1/3 towards your DCA plan over the next 6 months. 

Of course, no matter what you do, you should make sure that you have a sufficient cash flow to cover your expenses and even an emergency fund.  Depending on how complex are the expenses of your life, you should minimally plan out 6 months, but if youhave a lot of various expenses (or even a business or uncertainties from some of your income sources) then you might want to plan out 18 months to 2 years in advance, just to make sure that you are covered based on anticipated incomes (sure sources and less sure sources, always planning for worser case scenarios).  You don't want to get stuck having to cash out any part of your BTC that is at a time that is NOT completely of your own choosing, which goes to the principle of not investing more than you can afford to lose (in that regard you are never emotionally attached to the direction of the price because you have already reasoned through why you are investing into BTC).

So finally, your investment into BTC should be specifically tailored to yourself which involves considerations of your cash flow, your other investments, your timeline, your view of BTC as compared with other investments, your risk tolerance and the amount time and skills you have available to manage your BTC fund and research further so that you can tweak your plan from time to time, as needed.

I am not even going to talk with you bearshills.

You are depressing.

I think that Twitchy and some others have largely compiled the transactional information and timeline matters that might be useful in terms of boiling matters down to OGNasty getting paid by Pirate after he had made all of the pass through payments to investors, which suggests that he did not pay any pass through investors (or at least not the full amounts) after getting paid from Pirate. 

Twitchy summarized the matter with references in this post.  There might be supplementary and supportive information that Twitchy could point out.

I have not done anything to really help in the compiling or analyzing of any of the evidence except getting caught up in arguing with TecShare and TOAA regarding their various distraction points.

Sounds contradictory just the way you stated it, and of course, not too many people are interested in BIG blocker nonsense or any of that kind of snake oil baloney in a bitcoin thread, and maybe we are getting a bit off the topic if we go into descriptions about what is consensus, which ends up driving the direction of BTC in terms of Schelling point type dynamics.

Of course, community concerns about bitcoin can affect price in terms of adoption and development, yet seems that you started this thread in terms of concerns about price over exuberance and needs to correct that might be more technical analysis basis in terms of whether price momentum is sustainable.  Accordingly, there were a lot of folks calling the bitcoin top starting at about $5k in the last cycle (including myself thinking that the price was not likely to go much above $5k in the last cycle, even though it ended up going 4x higher), so in that regard, sooner or later the ones calling the top were going to be right.

Of course, if fundamentals are weak, and if 4 year fractal theories and stock to flow theories of BTC's price trajectory don't play out, then we would need a different model for trying to anticipate price direction and if we believe that bitcoin retains enough of strength in various network effects in order to retain bullish price performance.

Ultimately it is up to you if you decided that your theories about the direction of bitcoin are deviating a bit too much from what people consider to be bitcoin, which seems to kind of be implied in what you are saying, and no one's got time for that in a bitcoin thread... 

Seems that you are purposefully attempting to skew the kinds of accepted practices in this burden of proof kind of area.

It does not matter at all what I think.  I am merely attempting to describe what I understand to be the standards and practices, and if I don't understand or if I am not explaining well, then I have no problem being corrected.  Your level of wanting to misunderstand or to divert into nonsense about what I think leads us into gobble-dee-gook landia, which seems to be your preferred stomping grounds.  hahahahaha

Anyhow, it seems that I already stated what I mean by shifting burdens, and there is really no need for me to attempt to reiterate what I have already said.



There has been some compiling of facts that lend reasonable inferences regarding that the funds likely went into the pockets of OGNasty.  Is that the only explanation? no.  Is it 100%? no.  But it seems to be the most probable based on the evidence so far presented.  Is it enough evidence to convict in a criminal proceeding?  Perhaps.... Is it enough evidence to get a prosecutor interested?  Perhaps.  Is there a statute of limitation problem or an amount in controversy (like de minimus issue)?  Could be.  Does there need to be enough evidence in order to have a criminal conviction?  no way José.  Just like nutildah said, members can decide to remove trust from OGNasty or to refuse to trust him or to distrust him based on evidence already presented.  Or they could decide that the evidence does not rise to a level that inspires them to take any actions in regards to whether or not to trust OGNasty.



You are being unreasonable by trying to personify every statement that is made.  Who gives any shits what I say in terms of proving anything?  I am not trying to prove anything.  I am just describing various aspects of applicable standards to consider, and you seem to want to argue about basic foundational ideas.



Sure, sometimes there are better ways that I might be able to say the thing that I am trying to say.  I am just a mere mortal with my communication limitations.  On the other hand, it does not seem that you are doing much if any better than me in terms of exuding logical clarity, especially since you seem to get so easily distracted into irrelevancies regarding conspiracy theories or even trying to confuse what the facts and logic establish.... directly or indirectly, including lacking or refusing to consider various standards of proof and how burdens might shift under certain circumstances.

Fractal, smacktal.   

We don't need a testicle story from you, again (I have the right guy?  or was it d_eddie?  involving some kind of spray), bitserve.  

That's all we need, like another hole in the head.  

Similar to a lot of the folks who seemed normal around that time, they transitioned their lil selfies into silly-ass ridiculous BIG blocker nonsense, and whined themselves into ultimatums, just like Richy_T  (and the previous owner of this thread, too - AdamstgBit)... 
 there are only a few of them left, here, fighting the BIG blocker fight... which still is a ridiculous fight, but some of them don't give up with such nonsense...

Anyhow, Richy_T took his marbles and went somewhere else.. and whined the whole time about BIG blocker nonsense including supposed censorship going on within this forum.