I think the current fee situation is several years premature. The block reward still makes up the large majority of miner payment. I don't know how much fee head room is left before people start shopping elsewhere. Some bitcoin fans act like it has already won. Maybe they'll still be here after everyone else has reached their breaking point and they'll have wonderfully cheap fees again because there won't be any transactions. Right now everyone should be all out to on board as many people as possible. Very few have a genuine need to use it, they just want to use it and that's slowly eroding. you need a large fee to get the trasaction and confirmation that fast. I think this has strayed far from the tagline bitcoin with cheap and fast fee like some years before? lol
Whoever started that sakes pitch was very stupid. This was always going to happen but it's happening far too soon.
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Probalities. We saw several big alts hitting 100-1000% gains while btc is/was falling. If btc goes further south chances are good that people will jump into alts for a while.
I think they may be a little late to the party by now, but I'm sure that pump money will be welcomed by the people slinking away.
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Even if we do end up living in a caliphate I'll be contentedly pig farming until they set my eyeballs on fire. I assume mohamed got fucked by an uppity sow or something. I've never got the religiously mentally ill problem with pork.
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I should also add a question - what would be a good hedge for the fork. I am inclined to think that LTC should be one - all other alts has already had their rallies, LTC has been long in a bear mode, it is not the most innovative. But exactly because of the lack of innovation it is the closest alternative for BTC - so it should be a good hedge for forks in BTC.
USD, gbp or whatever takes your fancy that isn't crypto. You'd be batty to think that Bitcoin pissing all over itself wouldn't have an effect on everything else too. If there is a contentious hard fork, and I don't believe there will be, I'd leave and not come back.
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The "Human factor" is Bitcoin's biggest threat. Folks tend to tribalism very fast and at the moment they are about to cripple Bitcoin as a storage of value, cause a fork (or even forkS) will mean in the longterm the end of Bitcoin as a storage of value. You can call the other fork "Altcoin" as long as you want, in the end the market doesn't care and value will diminish over time.
Yup. It's about time someone, or rather something, designed a crypto that was purely objective and gave its human followers electric shocks if they tried to fuck with its smooth operation.
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but nonetheless very annoyed because of the bad actors in this community.
I for one am pretty amazed there aren't more of them. Bitcoin is a very fertile petri dish for every conceivable type of disgusting behaviour.
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Network effect. First mover. Pristine origin.
The latter is rarely picked up on and it's extremely important. Everything that came after has the potential to be distorted by greed during its creation and indeed often has been. Sadly I'm not sure how many people actually care about that.
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One thing I don't understand about nem, maybe you guys can help explain it. On our best days, we may hit $1 million in volume.. normally it's around $500,000 give or take.
All the other coins in the top 15 are at least $2 million volume, others are at 15, 28, 11, and 5 million
Why is the volume so low for a coin with a market cap of over $100 million? Not a whole lot of buying and selling going on obviously, so how is the cap so high? or is that based on the value of the coin? Like if nem were valued at $1 each, our trade volume would be tens of millions, but since it isn't, volume is only 500k?
No mining is the answer. That automatically hugely reduces the need to sell. Miners have to constantly get rid to pay bills. NEM is one of the few up there with no inflation right now so its behaviour will always be very different. Oh and no recent ICO either. That breeds (more) pumpers and dumpers en masse due to the vested interests.
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According to Vinny, if BTU activates exchanges will list it as BTU and the ensuing chaos will cause the value of BTC to crash hard.
Well, if it's listed as an alt from the start that nullifies rather a lot of potential chaos. There'll be all sorts of silliness but no disaster. He has good points about Mr Ver and his brand awareness slipperiness though. Overall I think it would probably put an end to crypto's progress for a long time. The code would be of massive use to private projects but the public side would probably never recover. Two squabbling Bitcoins is exactly what many detractors expect anyway. If it can happen there it can happen absolutely anywhere.
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No matter how much we disagree with the whole BU thing, i am still so surprised at the amount it has got from proper bitcoiners.
Amount of what? No one should ever put much faith in node counts or the amount of noise a small number of people make. That goes for every camp.
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That reads like bilge to me. It seems to imply that Core = Bitcoin forever which even Core themselves probably wouldn't endorse. If 95% of people genuinely adored BU then it would become Bitcoin without question. Of course they don't so it'll never happen but it's just a matter of percentages and the contention factor. Bitcoin's value comes not from the software version but the history, trust and money shoved in there. That supersedes any code if it's mutually agreed upon to transfer it to a different version. The present code doesn't have a great deal of similarity with the very first version.
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First part, yes, second, no, I don't think so any more. It is now a whale's sports. Look, about 2 million bitcoin users, market cap 20 billion, AVERAGE bitcoin holding hence $10 000. Apply power-distribution law Pareto style, and you see who is important. If you're below $100 000,- you're not counting.
The number of people with that much skin in the game can't be more than a few tens of thousands at best. If they try to operate in a vacuum then they're not going to get very far. I don't see how long it could survive as a pure top down deal.
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In other words, the original lowering of the bloc size from 32 MB to 1 MB, to "allow poor suckers to use bitcoin over their 56kb lines" is totally BS. But now that that 1 MB limit is part of the protocol, the only people that could, eventually, decide to lift it, the miners, have absolutely no reason to remove that bonus for them, not with bigger blocs, and not with a second tier network.
Miners don't need small fish adoption. They want big whale usage of bitcoin, with few transactions of large amounts, and the current protocol is perfect for that. It didn't need to be so, but by error or by intend, it has been designed that way, and they would be crazy to remove this.
Small fish are what got Bitcoin where it is today and they still sustain it. It's not a creation of big whales and I can't see much sign of them being present so far. If all of this was taking place ten years in the future then it begins to make sense but miners would be very dim to count on an outcome that hasn't arrived yet. Small fish may walk away leaving nothing for whales to pick up.
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There is no civil war. There are some government actors planted in bitcoin ecosystem that do everything they can to generate noise and prevent accelerated bitcoin adoption.
Well, even if that is the case they've stoked enough 'real' people to get frenzied enough to get behind them.
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If you were knowledgeable, you would know that the average bitcoin user is ignorant of the blocksize issue. The average user sends a tx and walks away, never participating or paying attention to the arguments.
The average bitcoin user is not buy altcoins as hedges. The average bitcoin user has less than 0.5 btc, they aren't going to risk that into an alt. Only the whales are buying those altcoins as pure speculation. The Dumps will come like always.
I think you're describing a user 10-15 years in the future. You've still got to be pretty weird and greedy to be using Bitcoin at this stage. It's possible a lot of people aren't paying much attention to the usual echo chambers but the idea that they're as carefree as a debit card user doesn't ring true. And from perusing these forums, the newer you are the more likely you are to be throwing your coins away on ludicrous investment schemes and ICOs. Alts at present are largely a mirage but there might be a tipping point that no one notices until the moment has passed.
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I don't know a single other person who uses bitcoin, and when I try to use Bitcoin, I am usually disappointed.
What is disappointing about it? Either it works or it doesn't. And that fact that it has arrived at this valuation and it's still a relative obscurity means there's a vast amount of headroom left. Or it'll flop fatally.
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But we've seen this all a million times before with other alts (Steem anyone? Nxt anyone? Blackcoin, Darkcoin anyone? Dogecoin anyone?). I think the overall crypto community is much older and wiser now. They see the patterns and the cons now.
If alts survive and stick around long enough they'll breed their own holders. There are blatant one time orgasms like Blackcoin but there are ETH and XMR fans who've been into it for years now and probably won't be going anywhere else. The fiat/BTC derision has a very similar flavour to the BTC/alt derision which is a little unseemly. It's still very much a developing landscape. Lots could happen.
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Of course it's silly, but people are also silly. It's an utterly meaningless barrier but a psychological one all the same. It may be daft but it makes people pay attention.
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Unfortunately SegWit is dead end of development, viewed by miners as a backdoor tool and enemy to decentralization. I agree that everything would be so much easier with SegWit and Lightning Network. But greedy miners won't allow it knowing that both these upgrades will kill their profits.
Then said miners are monumentally stupid. The on chain fees for opening and closing channels will be staggeringly high. That's why I'm not so sure a Lightning Network will actually change much without quasi Paypals giving you IOUs to group them together instead. We're already seeing a few merchants accepting Bitcoin solely through a Coinbase wallet to avoid going on chain. That might accelerate. If miners won't give enough permission to the capacity then people will route around them to everyone's detriment.
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Funny, over the years I've observed a pretty repeatable pattern with alt coins: 1) What always precedes an altcoin's parabolic rise is delusion and hubris 2) What always follows it is: - a mega crash, usually caused by a hack, serious flaw, unknown bug, insider theft, etc. - a community left in shock, disbelief - finally acceptance - and then an excruciatingly slow decent into eventual quiet irrelevance Hmm. I think it's a constantly changing thing. The first alt bubble in 2013 really was a shit show. I'm not sure there's a single coin from back then that ever recovered. The current crop are a bit more resilient. It's getting to a point where if you just sit there you'll eventually get your money back. I think that's all down to Poloniex really rather than any 'fundamentals'. The appetite for bonkers gains from alts is bottomless. Bitcoin needs to progress beyond the level it's at now to differentiate itself enough. The ETF would've done it. I think that's the cause for the alt pump.
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