Bitcoin didn't lose people money, just like stocks don't.

People lose money because they are driven by fear and greed, and as a result made bad decisions.

What you fail to understand is that you are no different than those people, you see it as a binary win/lose trade in a vacuum. The only difference is that you are on the flip side "all in" on fiat racing toward a cliff edge backwards pointing and laughing. Exactly the same as all the people who were full btc before it crashed.

I currently have more btc tied up in gox than many of you will ever own. I lost even more btc than that on bitcoinica. I lost well over 50 BTC on mining.

Even after all this I am not ruined. I am still 5figures fiat to the better and have a few BTC to show.

I could have more if I'd guessed everything perfectly, but I didnt. And I knew I wouldn't so I never went all in on anything and instead hedged all my decisions. I did dollar cost average, I do hedge bull runs in fiat. I make smart, boring decisions. Like converting a little bit of fiat into BTC at a statistically significant market low. It might go down further and then maybe I'll buy more.

If BTC goes to zero, I am still not ruined.

If you were, you were doing it wrong. Learn your lesson, play better next time.

How much money *do* you make trolling btc talk anyway?

Buying. right now.

Read ibian's post again, he spells it out.

Bitcoin isn't an accident, that will change the world. It's wholly intentional, and by design keeps it exactly the same.

The only thing you can change is your place in the jigsaw.

Imagine these scenarios:

A: big money is oblivious, crypto nerds are going to steal all their monehs from under their noses.
B: big money is behind it, and keep all the moneh's, a few crypto nerds get lucky and buy lambo's
C: the whole system carries on as normal and does not collapse
4: rapture

Which is most likely? Suggest others? US givt has given the green light China wobbled but probably sees what is going on, Europe is falling in line.

The man in the street remains entirely ignorant to debt slavery as ever.  Is totally sceptical of anything that isn't green paper, so engrained is the value they assign to the "promise to pay". BTC Bear market shakes out the majority of crypto nerds that misunderstand risk.

All the while, the dollar inflates the banks become bigger than tbtf, new bitcoin keeps getting bought at a rate of over $1m a day, nearly 3/4 of all coin that will ever exist has already been pocketed (by crypto nerds? Or by big money?) Bitcoin ecosystem continues to grow.

Well wouldn't that be an interesting coincidence give I plucked these figures right out of the quantum foam

as brg44 says its definitely not about trading to win. its about thinking about how the endgame could play out

The $300k is arbitrary - optimistic, but not outlandish. The timescale is arbitrary. The number and magnitude of cycles is arbitrary. Its just an illustration of what kind of price action is possible when you try and work back from one possible endgame scenario.

It's definitely not a recommendation to go all in. Over the past 3 years I like to think that any "advice" I've given has always been roughly. Don't invest what you can't afford to lose. Assume its going to zero. Then hedge against success (i.e. don't go full fiat!).

I'm also from the don't trade the markets school. That burned me enough to learn my lesson.

Work, spend less than you earn, save money and spread it around asset classes. The aim is not to get rich, its to not go bust.

Everything else takes care of itself.

So fewcoins...


There are your facts. Here is another one. Neither you or I know what is going to happen. Only one of us is running about the place shouting about how they do though.

Your move.

For a lot of people - me included - quite a lot of those 'gox dollars' ended up in real bank accounts.

Price goes down because supply is greater than demand.

Demand is on a long term steady increase, supply varies based on how aggressively miners are selling.

Right now, we are in the aftermath of massive capital expenditure on mining gear, which people are desperately trying to get some ROI

It looks linear because we are still here

and a new keyboard. his shift key looks to be sticking...

Hedging because however high it goes, you can't ever discount the probability of it failing. It's formulaic selling though to keep it unemotional x% per y% rise. The downside is capital gains tax :/ How I'd dearly love to be able to get some COIN in my pension!

At the theoretical $560k I would have sold about half my BTC. What I have left in BTC would still be worth about 7 times more than the fiat I had collected

That fiat would probably end up divested in metals & equities.

You do realise that the other side of every sell, there is a buyer?

In fact he probably bought a fewcoins

Let me guess OP bought at $1200?

Brilliant, the trolls are trolling each other! Lol

Roughly, days.

I explained more fully here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=800330.msg9005672#msg9005672

My gut tells me MWI is wrong, and that's the only argument I have.

Well, apart from this one...

I don't think nature would be so careless as to leave all these other universes lying around. Unless she was a he

This was the cry at $2.xx waiting for $1, I remember it well (so was I, oh the orders I had open on bitcoinica...).

This time everyone is waiting for sub $300 imho.

I'd say everything that can happen, can happen, until it does happen. Then only that thing happened, because the wave function collapsed.