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341  Economy / Speculation / Re: Calling top at $16500 (NEW 17th Jan: $4,100 bottom called) on: January 26, 2018, 12:32:12 AM
Why would anyone use Bitcoin Cash over any of the other fast transaction coins? I just don't understand this.

It's Bitcoin.

No, Bitcoin is decentralized.

It seems so obvious at first glance to everyone in the space what decentralisation means. Its really easy to think the concentration of mining power to specialists is centralisation, when you first encounter bitcoin. In reality, its not about that, specialisation was inevitable.

Actually, in bitcoin and all other PoW coins, decentralization IS about how mining is distributed over the different participants.  You are right that the industrial efforts in PoW lead to specialisation, which is exactly why PoW is a failure in maintaining decentralization.  It is not because you *know* that it is going to centralize, that you should waver that away.  All PoW coins with "reward" are centralizing, and that's inevitable, because of economies of scale and specialisation.  But that's just a fundamental error in the game theory of PoW, not a fatality for crypto.

Why is this true centralization ?  Because decentralisation is a political, not a technical notion.  It is about decision power.  The whole idea of decentralisation is immutability of the rules, because all of politics is about modifying the rules so that you can win advantage over others.  The problem of all forms of central decision power is a funny notion, which we call "corruption".  It is the naive idea that we set up a hierarchically controlled power structure with a goal of "common good", just to find out that the deciders in that hierarchy are using their power of decision for their own advantage - which is in fact the most logically expected outcome.  People take decisions because they think that taking them brings them advantage.  People with hierarchical power don't do anything else: they use that extra power to their advantage. 

This is why democracies, big companies, and everything else are "corrupt": because they are made up of people, and we naively thought that they would put their individual essence aside to decide for the common good, instead of for themselves, like everybody else. 

If you can dictate the rules, you can put that to your advantage, directly or indirectly.  This is where decentralization comes in.  The idea is that you "flatten out the hierarchy" and have the decision be taken by consensus of entities with opposing interests.  Any rule change in the advantage of A, will be to the disadvantage of B and vice versa.  If A and B are placed in hierarchical relationship, then it is the highest one that will be able to get his advantage, over the advantage over the lower placed.  That's why the general lives, and the soldier dies.

If nobody is higher up than any other one, then the only thing people can agree upon, is the common set of initial rules.  No rule change is abl to be pushed, because no majority exists as long as the entities are non-colluding.  There is only one point of symmetry between all these different entities: the existing set of rules.

Of course, if it turns out that these different entities can agree upon a collective change of rules, nothing stops them from doing so.  If different sets of entities want different rule sets, they can part and each do their thing.  That's the essence of decentralisation.

In order for that to work, there needs to be a "voting mechanism".  In bitcoin, the voting mechanism is proof of work.  So who-ever can vote with proof of work, has decision power in bitcoin.  The distribution of the voters by proof of work is hence the decentralization in bitcoin.

That's the distribution of mining pools.  Majority needs 3 mining pools, >95% needs 10 mining pools.  That's the state of decentralization in bitcoin.

There's another aspect of decentralization: the actual "writing of the rules".  It is nice to think upon other rules politically, you have to have them running in code.  So actual decentralisation is the number of actual rule propositions.  In crypto, that's the number of independent protocol implementations.  In bitcoin, that's one: the repository on Github of bitcoin Core.   

That's it.

Quote
Decentralisation is the way in which participants in the network can effectively reach all other participants in the network as quickly as possible. Such that consensus can be reached with minimal opportunity to have your message (tx) blocked, or otherwise obfuscated.

According to that definition, Facebook is highly decentralized.

Bitcoin, and most of crypto, have a myth about decentralization, while it isn't.  But that's not even a problem.  A zero-sum game that more or less works is good enough to be usable.  The myths are there to sell the religion, and to make believe. 

Bitcoin is nor decentralized, nor a currency.  But that doesn't mean it doesn't work.  It is a great gambling asset in a great zero-sum game.  Given that most financial assets in the big derivative market are similar, bitcoin has a great future.  But not as a currency, nor as a decentralized system.  It never was, and never will be.  It is a gambling token in a new financial zero sum game casino.  And that has a great future.  It simply needs a story that gives it some "moral high ground" even though it is entirely bogus.

Note that bitcoin needs alt coins to avoid being a simple greater-fool game, and to form a large casino ; in the same way that you cannot have one single financial speculative asset in the financial markets.  They need one another for people to bet on, so that the winners can reap in the money from the losers, but that the losers keep coming back, hoping to be winners one day.


If you think my definition of decentralised applies to Facebook you didn’t really understand it. As eloquent and well thought out your post, it boils down to exactly what I said. At first glance it’s easy to think decentralisation is X. You just listed all the reasons why people think that.

I know why you think that. I thought that too, until I came to a better understanding. I doubt many are going to see it becaus you hold the popular opinion. Give it some years.
342  Other / Archival / Re: delete thread on: January 25, 2018, 01:55:26 AM
delete thread

heheh too late Wink

I a software engineer/programmer and i have found alot of proof that
tether is being sold to exchanges and that it keeps being printed.

I've found out that it basically is being printed for the sole purpose of purchasing btc with this
newly printed "money" thus popping up the price of not only btc but all cryptos.

I'm working on a documentary on the whole tether scam that will have the biggest
impact on cryptocurrency and the news will be all over it. It will trigger
a bitcoin sell-off like we've never seen before when people realize that 90%
of the marketcap of bitcoin is fake printed tether money.



Tether is a big reason btc got to 20.000, if you look at the chart you can see when tether started getting pumped btc and all altcoins rose with it.


Their offline wallet and richlist can still be seen, and you can clearly see how it is being printed.


Marketcap:

 Jan 1 2016- Jan 1 2017  From 7 billion to 18 billion with real money, an increase of approx: 255%

 Jan 1 2017- June 1 2017 New tether coin became available:  from 18 billion - 87 billion an increase of approx: 385%
 June 1 2017 - Jan 7 2018 Tether started being printed in massive amounts - from 87 billion to 830 billion an increase of approx: 860%



If you really had any proof of any of this and were writing a big story on it then you wouldn't post it here, you'd be keeping it hushed up ready to publish your story and shock the whole crypto community. It would be a million dollar story if not more.
343  Economy / Speculation / Re: When will the market pick up again?? on: January 25, 2018, 01:54:06 AM
The market so far has been down for the year. When do you feel the market will recover? Too much FUD going around with negative news floating around. Will Bitcoin go down further to USD 8-9k??

Dude. This is Bitcoin! Buckle up and HODL. 2020 and a test of $4.1k
344  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoint to $1,800 USD by end of 2018 on: January 25, 2018, 01:51:55 AM
Not. A. Chance.

This from a guy who is all in BCH, and thinks BTC *will* test ~$4100.
345  Economy / Speculation / Re: Calling top at $16500 (NEW 17th Jan: $4,100 bottom called) on: January 25, 2018, 01:30:31 AM
Whoever wrote that for you is funny Smiley

Not as funny as the $4,100 bottom call though!  Wink

I wonder what will happen first BTC $4100 or DragonMint ship a miner Cheesy heh
346  Economy / Speculation / Re: Calling top at $16500 (NEW 17th Jan: $4,100 bottom called) on: January 25, 2018, 01:22:31 AM
Why would anyone use Bitcoin Cash over any of the other fast transaction coins? I just don't understand this.

It's Bitcoin.

No, Bitcoin is decentralized.

It seems so obvious at first glance to everyone in the space what decentralisation means. Its really easy to think the concentration of mining power to specialists is centralisation, when you first encounter bitcoin. In reality, its not about that, specialisation was inevitable.

Decentralisation is the way in which participants in the network can effectively reach all other participants in the network as quickly as possible. Such that consensus can be reached with minimal opportunity to have your message (tx) blocked, or otherwise obfuscated.

I get the impression that many still think its about end users not being able to mine any more.

I think, in time, you'll come to see why that was never the case. Incentive mech makes the *number* of miners largely inconsequential (they can't cheat, they go out of business, and its big business worth not losing). For the man in the street I'd worry more about whether or not they can freely, without permission, broadcast a tx and know reliably its gonna get heard by those miners - b/c they are the ones that will put it in a block.

Just my 2c. Who knows. Who cares. We're all just bobbing along supporting our own interpretation of Satoshi's Vision. GL!
347  Economy / Speculation / Re: Calling top at $16500 (NEW 17th Jan: $4,100 bottom called) on: January 25, 2018, 01:08:08 AM


Newbies can be so impatient Wink
348  Economy / Speculation / Re: Calling top at $16500 (NEW 17th Jan: $4,100 bottom called) on: January 25, 2018, 01:05:31 AM
Yeah, I don't see Bitcoin Cash taking over anytime soon.  Bitcoin acts like an index fund because every single exchange in this world trades BTC into altcoins.  It's very difficult to buy a random coin without Bitcoin.  I can't buy Ripple on Bittrex without BTC.  Every single coin on Bittrexs is traded with BTC, not Bitcoin Cash.  That's the reason why BTC can bring the entire market down or even lift the entire market up.  Bitcoin Cash will remain second rate until this changes but I don't believe this will happen anytime soon.

Newbie confirmed Wink

Have you been watching what is going on with exchanges? BCH trading pairs being added at an unprecedented rate for such a new altcoin Smiley

Heheh can't believe you still around poking bulls. Are you now pursuing a solo career since your other half left you to go troll for Bitcoin.com 'professionally'?

Dude. BCash (LOL) is a scam. I can tell from some of the pixels and from seeing quite a few scams in my time.

That clock is still ticking...

On point. Whoever wrote that for you is funny Smiley
349  Economy / Speculation / Re: Calling top at $16500 (NEW 17th Jan: $4,100 bottom called) on: January 19, 2018, 02:53:25 PM
Why would anyone use Bitcoin Cash over any of the other fast transaction coins? I just don't understand this.

It's Bitcoin.
350  Economy / Speculation / Re: Calling top at $16500 (NEW 17th Jan: $4,100 bottom called) on: January 19, 2018, 02:52:57 PM
I couldn't even begin to guess! in the region of $600-$60,000 !!! Far too much chaos in the marketplace right now
Dont you think that your reasoning is being obfuscasted by emotions brought by squeezed shorts?

You clearly shorted bitcoin, a lot of it, if not all of your stash. You still can go back, even if you'll have less. The price will increase anyway, and you can try to short again, once it reaches a new steep high.

Are you projecting, because I don't short anything. Ever. It's one of the most stupid things a trader could do.

Then there is the fact I don't even 'trade' either!

I HODL and skim a little as it rises.

I'm the least glamorous investor out there. I could bore drying paint with my investing.
351  Economy / Speculation / Re: Calling top at $16500 (NEW 17th Jan: $4,100 bottom called) on: January 19, 2018, 02:49:40 PM
Yeah, I don't see Bitcoin Cash taking over anytime soon.  Bitcoin acts like an index fund because every single exchange in this world trades BTC into altcoins.  It's very difficult to buy a random coin without Bitcoin.  I can't buy Ripple on Bittrex without BTC.  Every single coin on Bittrexs is traded with BTC, not Bitcoin Cash.  That's the reason why BTC can bring the entire market down or even lift the entire market up.  Bitcoin Cash will remain second rate until this changes but I don't believe this will happen anytime soon.

Newbie confirmed Wink

Have you been watching what is going on with exchanges? BCH trading pairs being added at an unprecedented rate for such a new altcoin Smiley

How do you keep track of what exchanges are adding BCC?

another one ...

https://blog.bitpay.com/shapeshift/

Just out of curiosity Matilda, what do you think the Bitcoin Cash Price will be end of 2018?

I couldn't even begin to guess! in the region of $600-$60,000 !!! Far too much chaos in the marketplace right now

Seriously Matilda -> $60000
Don't you think you are pushing it a Little to high  Tongue

Thats the thing with ranges. It could be any of the values between the highest and the lowest.

The highest and the lowest values represent the most unlikely values. So yeah its unlikely it will be over 60k as we are more likely to be in a protracted bear market than anything else right now, and in a bear market stuff doesnt tend to go up 3000% !
352  Economy / Speculation / Re: Calling top at $16500 (NEW 17th Jan: $4,100 bottom called) on: January 18, 2018, 06:57:14 PM
Yeah, I don't see Bitcoin Cash taking over anytime soon.  Bitcoin acts like an index fund because every single exchange in this world trades BTC into altcoins.  It's very difficult to buy a random coin without Bitcoin.  I can't buy Ripple on Bittrex without BTC.  Every single coin on Bittrexs is traded with BTC, not Bitcoin Cash.  That's the reason why BTC can bring the entire market down or even lift the entire market up.  Bitcoin Cash will remain second rate until this changes but I don't believe this will happen anytime soon.

Newbie confirmed Wink

Have you been watching what is going on with exchanges? BCH trading pairs being added at an unprecedented rate for such a new altcoin Smiley

How do you keep track of what exchanges are adding BCC?

another one ...

https://blog.bitpay.com/shapeshift/

Just out of curiosity Matilda, what do you think the Bitcoin Cash Price will be end of 2018?

I couldn't even begin to guess! in the region of $600-$60,000 !!! Far too much chaos in the marketplace right now
353  Economy / Speculation / Re: Calling top at $16500 (NEW 17th Jan: $4,100 bottom called) on: January 18, 2018, 06:13:23 PM
Yeah, I don't see Bitcoin Cash taking over anytime soon.  Bitcoin acts like an index fund because every single exchange in this world trades BTC into altcoins.  It's very difficult to buy a random coin without Bitcoin.  I can't buy Ripple on Bittrex without BTC.  Every single coin on Bittrexs is traded with BTC, not Bitcoin Cash.  That's the reason why BTC can bring the entire market down or even lift the entire market up.  Bitcoin Cash will remain second rate until this changes but I don't believe this will happen anytime soon.

Newbie confirmed Wink

Have you been watching what is going on with exchanges? BCH trading pairs being added at an unprecedented rate for such a new altcoin Smiley

How do you keep track of what exchanges are adding BCC?

another one ...

https://blog.bitpay.com/shapeshift/
354  Economy / Speculation / Re: Calling top at $16500 (NEW 17th Jan: $4,100 bottom called) on: January 18, 2018, 05:28:10 PM
Yeah, I don't see Bitcoin Cash taking over anytime soon.  Bitcoin acts like an index fund because every single exchange in this world trades BTC into altcoins.  It's very difficult to buy a random coin without Bitcoin.  I can't buy Ripple on Bittrex without BTC.  Every single coin on Bittrexs is traded with BTC, not Bitcoin Cash.  That's the reason why BTC can bring the entire market down or even lift the entire market up.  Bitcoin Cash will remain second rate until this changes but I don't believe this will happen anytime soon.

Newbie confirmed Wink

Have you been watching what is going on with exchanges? BCH trading pairs being added at an unprecedented rate for such a new altcoin Smiley

How do you keep track of what exchanges are adding BCC?

Spend all day on twitter, bitcointalk, reading crypto news, going to the exchanges to check.... so I'm told .... Wink


Yeah, I don't see Bitcoin Cash taking over anytime soon.  Bitcoin acts like an index fund because every single exchange in this world trades BTC into altcoins.  It's very difficult to buy a random coin without Bitcoin.  I can't buy Ripple on Bittrex without BTC.  Every single coin on Bittrexs is traded with BTC, not Bitcoin Cash.  That's the reason why BTC can bring the entire market down or even lift the entire market up.  Bitcoin Cash will remain second rate until this changes but I don't believe this will happen anytime soon.

Depends on merchant adoption. Many merchants are removing bitcoin because of transaction fees and delays - but if they adopt bitcoincash instead that's a different story.

Bitcoincash has this coming 12 months to make it's mark. If it can get merchants to adopt it instead of BTC, then it has legs. If it doesn't it will die in a year's time.

Exactly this!
355  Economy / Speculation / Re: Calling top at $16500 (NEW 17th Jan: $4,100 bottom called) on: January 17, 2018, 08:03:07 PM
Yeah, I don't see Bitcoin Cash taking over anytime soon.  Bitcoin acts like an index fund because every single exchange in this world trades BTC into altcoins.  It's very difficult to buy a random coin without Bitcoin.  I can't buy Ripple on Bittrex without BTC.  Every single coin on Bittrexs is traded with BTC, not Bitcoin Cash.  That's the reason why BTC can bring the entire market down or even lift the entire market up.  Bitcoin Cash will remain second rate until this changes but I don't believe this will happen anytime soon.

Newbie confirmed Wink

Have you been watching what is going on with exchanges? BCH trading pairs being added at an unprecedented rate for such a new altcoin Smiley
356  Economy / Speculation / Re: Calling top at $16500 (NEW 17th Jan: $4,100 bottom called) on: January 17, 2018, 08:01:22 PM
Congrats, you win on the <$10k call. Your BCash got even more decimated though.  Cry

Indeed they did along with everything else, that much was inevitable.

What I’m waited my for is the bottom. Then we watch and wait what recovers, and what stagnates!
357  Economy / Speculation / Re: Call the Bottom, Bloody Edition on: January 17, 2018, 03:38:59 PM
Major panic selling going on now obviously. It might keep dipping to 7 or 8 thousand. Probably in a month we'll be back at $14k or so though.

This is about right, but that wont be the actual bottom.
358  Economy / Speculation / Re: Calling top at $16500 on: January 17, 2018, 03:37:11 PM
<snip>
Bitstamp low is still $10,162 in any case he didn't take the bet. So point is moot. (maybe he still would have won!)
<snip>

That escalated quickly!
359  Economy / Speculation / Re: Calling top at $16500 on: January 17, 2018, 09:15:22 AM
Time for someone to pay up.  Bitcoin dipped below 10k.  I bought some at 9600.

Bitstamp low is still $10,162 in any case he didn't take the bet. So point is moot. (maybe he still would have won!)

So looking back at the OP. The high on stamp was 19500 on the nose. As fabiorem correctly pointed out the 0.618 fib level is worth paying attention to. At ~$7500 from the actual top this corresponds nicely with the top of that big red correction candle first half of november.

here is a colourful fellow illustrating the above...




Shouldnt the correction be to 0.618 level?

At least this is what it looks like historically: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1J19gwjumJ8

The 0.618 level in your retracement is between 6k and 7k.

Also, notice theres only one red candle above it, which can point out to institutional investors joining the market.

So I suspect we'll continue to bleed down til $7500 at which point there will be some significant resistance.

If that doesn't hold then, the next leg down will take us to the region of $4100 (0.214 * 19500) which corresponds well with some high volume action around that price point 14/15th September that pumped that looked to be the catalyst for this run.

Thats the bottom - $4100.

Potential scenarios that invalidate the whole thing:

- The CasheningTM
- LN success/failure
- China banning bitcoin

Good Luck traders! Wink

(obvs one of those is a joke, i'll let the reader choose which!)
360  Economy / Speculation / Re: We've officially entered a new long term bear market on: January 17, 2018, 08:47:11 AM
OMG! reversal confirmed!

Come now - we are in a bear market. $11,000 is 42% down from the all time high of around $19,000. By any definition it's a bear market. With a bit of luck it will go sideways for a time, but we could go as low as $8000.

The legendary duck is a notorious counter indicator, second only to MatTheCat aka MatDerKater, my attempt at humour clearly failed Wink

I'm quite sure its a bear market... https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2541338.msg25912324#msg25912324
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