There might be a certain amount of inability to know, but we are not flying blindly.

We are investing in an asset class that has an asymmetric probability of return, so even if matters do not play out exactly as we hope or as much as we wished, we are facing an issue in which we are likely to become rich as fuck, even if the matter is not guaranteed.


Some of us have already gotten rich as fuck off of this matter, and even though the continued getting rich as fuck is not guaranteed, those of us who stay into bitcoin and continue to accumulate and hodl btc are likely taking advantage of an imbalance of information, and the gullibility of the stupid ass fence sitters who are scared to get in or the no coiners who refuse to get in.  Of course, there still are a decent number of folks who are not sufficiently educated about bitcoin and who will come around to investing into bitcoin, and as early adopters, we are likely to be advantaged by their late entrances, too.



I think that there has been enough information for a while, but some people have not been sufficiently introduced.  Other people are confused by the misinformation, yet good information is available for anyone ready, willing and able to engage in due diligent research into the matter and hopefully don't get too distracted by bad information in the process.



I doubt that you are fairly characterizing people in this space, even though you might be attempting to characterizing your own sentiments about it and then projecting those sentiments onto the rest of us.


I will grant you that there are some people who are more on the frontline than  others, and surely these are still early days, but again, I doubt that the level of uncertainty is anything near what you are expressing.  You seem to be stuck in 2011 (or you are talking that way), and a lot of questions have been answered and a lot of infrastructure has been built and a lot of networking effects have advanced since 2011.


Maybe you are in a time warp, searing?  Snap out of it!!!!!!!!!



Searing.  I must say that it was for your own good, and someone had to do it.

Learn something new everyday, I did not know that tails had mouths.     but I did know that in recent times, a lot of shitcoins are showing decently high levels of negative price trends, as compared with bitcoin, which bolsters previous assertions that I had made that shitcoins tend to serve mostly as BIG ASS unnecessary distractions rather the utility of paying attention to BIG DOG KING DADDY bitcoin. 

Arguments can be made; they are made all the time, including an argument that efficient markets "price in" future known events, so since the halvening is a known event, the question becomes a matter of how much it is priced in rather than whether it is priced in.   

Did litecoin (the tail) tell you to say that about the dog?



 

I couldn't resist.   

I think that a lot of people believe that bitcoin's halvening plays a decently strong role in keeping upwards price pressures that of course become somewhat more material after the halvening takes place - but also there is likely some investor intentions to front load their BTC holdings in anticipation of the halvening.

On the other hand, bitcoin's price is no one trick pony, so in that regard a lot of factors come together in order to influence its price including but not limited to a variety of network effects and momentum.

I thought that you were ignoring me (and or hating on me) ...  so a bit surprised that you engaged.. since the last time you engaged with me, was filled with a decent amount of slanders thrown in my direction....   hahahahaha

Anywhooo....

I did get a little bit worried in late 2016 and early 2017 when my BTC investment started to approach the value of my 401k, and furthermore through 2017 to surpass the value of my remaining other investments including my 401k that I had largely accumulated through my life (largely my investments of more than 20 years of my adult life), but I had already come to the conclusion that  I felt that I had sufficiently adjusted for a decent amount of my risk by carrying out my system of systematically selling in the ballpark of 1% of my BTC stash for every 10% that the BTC price goes up.

Of course, I could have chosen a different amount of shaving off of profits, and surely,  there could be some problems with using that accumulated capital to buy back BTC in the event that BTC prices goes down (which any of us in BTC for any decent period of time have witnessed that one of the most inevitable things in bitcoin is its price volatility).

I had another issue in early 2017 and that was that I had suffered a sims port hack, so in that regard, there were some problems with loss of BTC through that, yet BTC's price appreciation had still caused my BTC investment to perform in an overall manner that continued to provide a sufficient amount of equity cushion, such as the current 15x status, that I concluded that I was comfortable with the way that my various investments were spread out.  On the other hand, I do have a plan that in the coming years, I am likely going to begin to liquidate 1% per quarter of my BTC value so long as BTC's price are at least greater than $5k.  There might be some factors that could cause me to shave off more value, including digging into my BTC principle, such as feelings that I might NOT live long enough, or maybe if I feel that I need teeth, something like what Jimbo decided.  

Certainly, I don't feel overly diversified into bitcoin, and surely when BTC prices dropped into the lower $3ks, that is not a good feeling, but at that time my portfolio was still decently UP.. and surely with bitcoin some of us have experienced much more dire corrections than that relative to our own levels of investment, including my portfolio valued at about 65% in the red.. or only 35% of my investment amount during the dip times of 2014/15, so that felt worse in absolute lack of a cushion terms and also in terms of the level of then bitcoin development.. sure, I still felt positive about bitcoin, but a lot of people were suggesting that I cut my losses, etc ..etc.. and I largely held and I would buy from time to time, with what seemed to have been a then constrained cashflow, too.. and questions about whether I should be investing more into something that was already largely in the red for me.

So, it is difficult to be so worried under these kinds of circumstances, even if my percentage of total assets is decently high in bitcoin which causes my net worth to fluctuate on a fairly regular basis a whole hell of a lot more than what I had been previously accustomed to.  

By the way, I was just thinking about this earlier today... in which when BTC prices were in the $8k to $9k territory, and Hairymcbeary was stating that his net worth (or something like that) had reached an ATH which was in part attributed to some of his fortunes from the latest bitcoin dip down to $3k and its return back up and his ability to take advantage of such a dip.  For me, I am tentatively thinking that BTC prices have to return back over $17k for me to be at an ATH in terms of my own personal wealth, so perhaps some folks have better abilities to take advantage of bear markets, yet I am thinking that maybe I am experiencing various kinds of expenses in my life too, and I am inadvertently consuming some of my wealth along the way?  In any event, even though I attempt to monitor where I am at, I do attempt to enjoy my level of wealth, I feel that I have a cushion of wealth that is much beyond my expectations of where I thought that I would be at this stage of my life, even while I try not to be too preoccupied regarding possible mistakes that I make here and there because the projection of bitcoin prices seems that it is going to cause additional upside appreciations and a decent amount of abilities to indulge and to overspend and even to make a decent number of mistakes without necessarily thinking about whether I am being cautionary enough or frugal enough which was a everpresent pattern for the vast majority of my pre-bitcoin life.

I don't usually cite myself, but I will make an exception because I wanted to make some further points about problems of diversification with regards to crypto, and of course, I am not much of an advocate of keeping much if anything in any other cryptos besides bitcoin, but I can see why there could reasonably be some interest from younger folks, especially, in putting up to 30% into other cryptos, which o.k. fine, we can come to reasonably different conclusions about the prudence of that.

Another problem that I wanted to point out, though, is that the more that a young person might end up diversifying, then the smaller and smaller becomes the stake in each particular investment asset, and one of the dominant problems with younger peeps is that there does not tend to be a whole hell of a lot of capital to play with, and the more that such young person diversifies, the less and less is invested into each of the assets.  Such lack of capital could be the case with older people too, but with younger people lack of capital would logically be more common as an issue and having had little time to accumulate wealth and value retaining assets.

In other words, it takes a long fucking time to: 1) reasonably live within your means, 2) accumulate investment capital and 3) refrain from temptations to buy depreciating assets (such as too many non-utility consumption items)

In my own situation, I had not bought a new car until I was in my 40s, and yeah, I may have waited a bit too long, because I had accumulated a decent amount of wealth by the time I was in my mid-30s, but I was still on a relatively frugal behavior pattern, and I did not feel comfortable cashing in on what seemed to have been a decent accumulation of profits and a decent projected income stream.  I continued to want my money to work for me, and I thought that buying a new car would throw away too much potential working capital on a quickly and clearly depreciating asset.  So, anyhow, part of my point is that it can take a decent amount of time to build up enough wealth to be able to diversify a lot of it, and if you are working with a smaller base of money, then you are spread thin and your profits will not seem like a lot of money.  You also might be tempted to borrow, which sometimes can work out well if used prudently in order to attempt to get capital that you do not have to work for you.. and to be able to rotate it or to pay it back before penalties might kick in.

Even when I got into bitcoin, I had a decent amount of capital that I had available to me and that I could put into bitcoin, but I did not feel comfortable spreading out the money that I had available very much, and even after my bitcoin value grew 28x and shrunk back down to 8x and is currently at about 15x, there remains a kind of lack of confidence within my own thinking about spreading that value that I have accumulated out into alt coins, which I suppose is stemming from my earlier conclusions that bitcoin was the best investment and not to dilute my funds into crap, and even if I currently feel that I have enough funds that I could diversify, so dilution is not really the issue anymore, I still have residue feelings that I don't want to diversify into shit, just for the sake of diversification...

but another part of my personal situation/problem remains that I have a decent investment in traditional investments such as a 401k that even though my 401k is valued at less than 25% of my overall investment portfolio, such 401k was serving as my kind of back-up plan if BTC totally went to tulips (as searing might say).  I had always figured that my 401k was enough to sustain everything as a backup - even though I had been tempted in late 2014 to withdraw about 50% from that 401k and to transfer it into BTC (which I did not do).. and even though I would have made a killing, I am kind of glad that I just left that 401k alone, too (maybe for the sake of maintaining some spreading out of risk, aka diversification into nonbitcoin assets?).

Maybe there could be a kind of time period in there that would have to come after the ATH in order for that ATH to be considered the top of such a cycle?

So, for example:

"When do you believe BTC will reach its highest point in its next ATH top (in which at least a one year period of lower prices follows before BTC next reaches another ATH)?"

Of course, you could change that following price period, but 1 year should work in a vast majority of cases in order to give a sufficient period time for a reset, so in 2013, there were two tops and a less than a year intervention (something like 9 months between 2013 tops that were in early April and late November), so in 2013 the second top would count as the top for that period because there was less than 1 year intervention between reaching ATHs, but after the December 2017 peak, we have had more than 18 months of intervening period without experiencing another ATH.... meaning that we are in reset mode... reset for another ATH, but questioning details as to when (or if) that next ATH will come or how it will play out, exactly? 

Of course, no poll is going to be perfect because we have to make a best guestimate kind of choice, based on the wording.

hahahahahaaha



Good one, infofront.

You are going to double down regarding theories of consensus....     

There is some validity to diversification, but the concept is taken to an extreme with shitcoins, and there seems to be hardly any justification to diversify into shitcoins.

Another thing, the concept of diversification is to attempt to diversify into assets that are not likely to be correlated and represent some fundamental differences.  Frequently altcoins are merely following bitcoin, so they are not really a different asset class.

Finally, there is a pretty god damned low probability that any altcoin would be able to take over the slack if bitcoin were to fail, and so a justification to diversify into a world of altcoins based on a kind of bitcoin failure theory has a very faulty premise.

I am not opposed to people coming to their own conclusions regarding what kind of diversification would be good for them based on their personal situation, and I understand the temptation to completely diversify out of traditional investments; however, if an employer offers any kind of 401k, it would likely be a good idea to invest into such 401k at least up to the matching funds (if matching exists) and perhaps up to the tax deferrable limit, but that might be a question of how much money would be left to invest into bitcoin, because most young people should consider having some investment into bitcoin, even if such bitcoin investment only ends up being 1% to 10% or so of their total investments.

I'm tempted, but I am not going to ask.   

If you happen to read this thread (sarcasm intended), you would notice that consensus, to the extent that there is such a thing or that it matters, seems to be more in the early 2021 time frame.... , and surely there are questions  whether there is going to be a kind of double upwards boom like in 2013 or a kind of front running of the boom that would cause a decently-sized peak coming earlier than expected (even before the halvening) and lend some credibility to increase the likelihood of a kind of double peak that would still take place in late 2020 or up to mid 2021 when the effects of the halvening are actually felt in a more concrete way.

O.k.  fair enough. I could kind of see a thread of a possible joke in there.... so no real desire to bust anyone's balls over a possible joke, whether really having balls or a girl or a bot.   

By the way, my response is kind of  serious, and LFC has been spouting off about moon in late 2020 or early 2021 for about 2 years now, which even if he is not exactly correct, I think that there is a decent amount of plausibility to build BTC price bubble theories around halvening effects, and even accounting for possible bubbles coming before the time line in your theory or even after, but bitcoin has been showing quite a few of these repeated bubble patterns playing out, and there is no real reason to believe that they are going to stop, unless you just happen to be a denier who is buying into some less convincing theory including some of the goofballs who try to place bitcoin into a mature asset camp, which should be relatively clear that bitcoin really does not fit too well into a mature asset camp... and likely will not until after it goes through decent adoption which also likely involves a likely ongoing exponential s-curve that is far beyond what any normies expect, but accumulators and HODLers will likely be rewarded for their behaviors.. and at the same time, none of it is a given... which is back to the short term joke point....  "we all doesn't know".

I believe that when I got into bitcoin in late 2013, my plan was to attempt to stay in for at least 1 year, even though i felt that I did not know much about bitcoin, except to attempt to treat it like a long term capital gains tax, which is at least 1 year of holding.  If someone can come in and attempt to establish a 5 year plan, then that would likely be more healthy, and at some point within my first year, my mind kind of converted over to considering my bitcoin investment to be longer term, too, because I developed more confidence in its fundamentals with the passage of time  - which was maybe a kind of Lindy effect within me? 

There should have been a lot of folks who saw late 2017, and the resolutions that were reached in August and November 2017 with a kind of bitcoin dominance over forkening attempts and bitcoin's unwillingness to change during that period or to succumb to baloney attacks, should have allowed for a lot more conviction for the HODLers, and surely BTC's price performance could have contributed to such confidence, even while the following year might have caused some folks who were less convicted into BTC regarding the solidness of BTC's going forward vision and the foundation built around bitcoin's difficulties to change.

Since bitcoin is now more than 10 years old, as compared to its only 5 year old status when I got in, newbies today, providing that they have enough youth, could still come into bitcoin with a kind of 5 year plus plan... the plan could include dollar cost averaging or even a bit of frontloading dollar cost averaging combination that should be able to have decent chances of profitability in the longer term of 5 years or more.

Apparently we all doesn't know.   Maybe you should 'splain ur selfie?

It's possible, also, yet maybe not in your speculation scenario, that we are in a correction period in 2022 and/or 2023 in preparation for the 2024 halvening. 

You consider  a possible upcoming correction cycle within your knowing more than everyone else scenario?

You are a sloppy proof reader.   

Likely too much ayahuasca.   

Surely, anyone attempting to engage in meaningful BTC price predictions should constantly be readjusting his/her chart legs to account for price performances that go in a direction or in an amount that was beyond the parameters of expectations.  

However, there might not be much if any need to adjust chart legs, if each of the legs is performing approximately in the amount and degree anticipated, which I would boil down to mostly strokes of luck rather than actual insight beyond being able to predict a a few moves in advance at most.  

Of course, longer term most of us BTC bulls anticipate largely UP based on BTC fundamentals rather than price momentum dynamics.

By the way, I don't really consider Vays or Jenks to be dumb merely because they seem to have been publicly and strongly wrong, which provides them as a kind of punching bag because of the level of their conviction rather than for some of the theoretical valid points that they were making.

On the other hand, some of these ideas of "down before up" seem to place too much emphasis on the need for down during what seems to be strong indications of s-curve exponential dynamics, which could take away some of the rationale for "down before up" even though we should always be prepared for at least some unexpected down, and surely once down starts to happen, then bear whales are likely going to attempt to take advantage and push downward momentum to the greatest extent that they could possibly manage, which ends up causing down to play out a lot worse than many of the HODLers and the UP betters would have incorporated into their psychological and financial preparations.

Are you attempting hilariousness roach?

As if you are the judge of "better"? 

If we had listened to you about what was "better," we would be sustaining our value rather than appreciating our value. 

My mom sold a bit in the $11k territory, and I doubt that she has any regrets.  I think it was less than 5% of her stash, but of course, she is much more elderly than you, LFC.  As far as I know, she also had not bought nor sold any BTC in the sub $10k arena and her last sale was in the $14k arena (which would have been late 2017)... so when you are getting more elderly, you may have to consider some of these matters differently.

Also, when we first crossed back over $10k, $11k was feeling like a decent sell, and even selling up to $13.8k might have felt good, and now it is feeling like we are experiencing more upwards pressures.. even while it is difficult to know with any kind of certainty whether we are going to be seeing sub $10k or even experiencing such sub $10k levels for a decent period of time... which could cause some demoralization from some strict HODLers/Accumulators.

hahahahahaha

I can relate to such reluctant "serious taking" of Lambie.