The next halving has had no effect on the price - how could it since it hasn't happened yet? its a year away, so an argument can't even be made that its speculation effect of increased halving price.
Arguments can be made; they are made all the time, including an argument that efficient markets "price in" future known events, so since the halvening is a known event, the question becomes a matter of how much it is priced in rather than whether it is priced in.
Let's face it. Bright/Dumb/Clueless/Newbie...at this point of adoption of Bitcoin we are just kinda 'winging it', as they say.
There might be a certain amount of inability to know, but we are not flying blindly.
We are investing in an asset class that has an asymmetric probability of return, so even if matters do not play out exactly as we hope or as much as we wished, we are facing an issue in which we are likely to become rich as fuck, even if the matter is not guaranteed.
Some of us have already gotten rich as fuck off of this matter, and even though the continued getting rich as fuck is not guaranteed, those of us who stay into bitcoin and continue to accumulate and hodl btc are likely taking advantage of an imbalance of information, and the gullibility of the stupid ass fence sitters who are scared to get in or the no coiners who refuse to get in. Of course, there still are a decent number of folks who are not sufficiently educated about bitcoin and who will come around to investing into bitcoin, and as early adopters, we are likely to be advantaged by their late entrances, too.
Just not enough info.
I think that there has been enough information for a while, but some people have not been sufficiently introduced. Other people are confused by the misinformation, yet good information is available for anyone ready, willing and able to engage in due diligent research into the matter and hopefully don't get too distracted by bad information in the process.
Most of us I think are running on what info we think we may glean from all this and our 'gut' feelings on Bitcoin and such.
I doubt that you are fairly characterizing people in this space, even though you might be attempting to characterizing your own sentiments about it and then projecting those sentiments onto the rest of us.
Chump or Champ.
We will be the first to know I guess.
I will grant you that there are some people who are more on the frontline than others, and surely these are still early days, but again, I doubt that the level of uncertainty is anything near what you are expressing. You seem to be stuck in 2011 (or you are talking that way), and a lot of questions have been answered and a lot of infrastructure has been built and a lot of networking effects have advanced since 2011.
Maybe you are in a time warp, searing? Snap out of it!!!!!!!!!
Searing. I must say that it was for your own good, and someone had to do it.
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