Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bkbirge]

All this talk of to the moon 2020 or 2021 is silly. We all know the real moon is in 2022. Or maybe 2023.

Apparently we all doesn't know.   Maybe you should 'splain ur selfie?

It's possible, also, yet maybe not in your speculation scenario, that we are in a correction period in 2022 and/or 2023 in preparation for the 2024 halvening. 

You consider  a possible upcoming correction cycle within your knowing more than everyone else scenario?

LOL, 'twas a joke. That was my point "we all doesn't know".

[ssmc2]

This is cool AF.  Wow.

https://symphony.iohk.io/

[JayJuanGee]

I am pretty sure shitton of people will be unloading their stashes like there is no tomorrow when btc starts to go above $50k. Not many will be left to hodl a full piece when it hits $100k.

When BTC goes above $100k and hits $1m, those who sold from $50k will be very sorry unless they owned and dumped at least 20 btc.

Yes, people tend to sell as if there is no tomorrow. We saw that when we reached the modest price 13800. People started selling so heavily that the profit turned into a loss for many. Only a day after the 13800, they kept selling down to 9700! We've seen many such crashes in 2017 and they all ended with 25%+ recovery. The next day it happened! We were back above 11K. I can only imagine how stupid those weak hands felt!

In the same way, we may have such crashes at any price level if the increase is too steep for a short time. We may fall from 50K to 30K for a day, and on the next day to be at 40K, and in 2 weeks above 50K. It could take longer, of course. It could take even a year, like in 2018. This won't be pleasant at all, of course. But if that is the price for becoming a millionaire, so be it!

I still remember 10 years ago, when I went into the bank and made a 5 year deposit with 4.5% year interest. I lived happily through those 5 years taking my profit. Until I heard of Bitcoin. What will be the interest of my Bitcoin deposit in 5 years? Incredibly high, for sure. Therefore, the price of suffering one more  bear year is insignificant compared to the prize after that.

And finally, if someone truly loves Bitcoin, he won't be happy to sell all of them and to stop watching the price. It just doesn't work. He will learn one way or another. After 5 years, when he spent  all of his fiat money, and hears on the news that Bitcoin reached a record heights 10x, 100x or more than the exit price, that feeling will kill all the joy he had when he sold them. Especially, if he has kids, who now have no money for a college or a medical treatment. My point is that we have to think in perspective - not for the next day, month, or year, but for a generation ahead. We have to be very careful what we sell and what we leave for the years to come. I've been thinking about it for 2 years and still don't have a clear and sound plan. I have to wait at least a year and see what will be the price after the next halving. Then I can make a better plan. And hopefully, my emotions won't interfere to sell most of it way too early! The other hard thing is to live with a profit that changes both ways by tens (hundreds, etc.) of thousands each day. That is no easy too! But this is our occupational hazard!

I believe that when I got into bitcoin in late 2013, my plan was to attempt to stay in for at least 1 year, even though i felt that I did not know much about bitcoin, except to attempt to treat it like a long term capital gains tax, which is at least 1 year of holding.  If someone can come in and attempt to establish a 5 year plan, then that would likely be more healthy, and at some point within my first year, my mind kind of converted over to considering my bitcoin investment to be longer term, too, because I developed more confidence in its fundamentals with the passage of time  - which was maybe a kind of Lindy effect within me? 

There should have been a lot of folks who saw late 2017, and the resolutions that were reached in August and November 2017 with a kind of bitcoin dominance over forkening attempts and bitcoin's unwillingness to change during that period or to succumb to baloney attacks, should have allowed for a lot more conviction for the HODLers, and surely BTC's price performance could have contributed to such confidence, even while the following year might have caused some folks who were less convicted into BTC regarding the solidness of BTC's going forward vision and the foundation built around bitcoin's difficulties to change.

Since bitcoin is now more than 10 years old, as compared to its only 5 year old status when I got in, newbies today, providing that they have enough youth, could still come into bitcoin with a kind of 5 year plus plan... the plan could include dollar cost averaging or even a bit of frontloading dollar cost averaging combination that should be able to have decent chances of profitability in the longer term of 5 years or more.

[HairyMaclairy]

She's feigning sleep. Small volume, flat tops/bottoms on the smaller timescales. Careful. Never trust a crouching tiger.

Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus

[serveria.com]

All this talk of to the moon 2020 or 2021 is silly. We all know the real moon is in 2022. Or maybe 2023.

Well not sure what is moon for you but new ATH is coming end of year  

In 2021 we can expect 7 digits and in 2022-2023 next crypto winter. 

[JayJuanGee]

All this talk of to the moon 2020 or 2021 is silly. We all know the real moon is in 2022. Or maybe 2023.

Apparently we all doesn't know.   Maybe you should 'splain ur selfie?

It's possible, also, yet maybe not in your speculation scenario, that we are in a correction period in 2022 and/or 2023 in preparation for the 2024 halvening. 

You consider  a possible upcoming correction cycle within your knowing more than everyone else scenario?

LOL, 'twas a joke. That was my point "we all doesn't know".

O.k.  fair enough. I could kind of see a thread of a possible joke in there.... so no real desire to bust anyone's balls over a possible joke, whether really having balls or a girl or a bot.   

By the way, my response is kind of  serious, and LFC has been spouting off about moon in late 2020 or early 2021 for about 2 years now, which even if he is not exactly correct, I think that there is a decent amount of plausibility to build BTC price bubble theories around halvening effects, and even accounting for possible bubbles coming before the time line in your theory or even after, but bitcoin has been showing quite a few of these repeated bubble patterns playing out, and there is no real reason to believe that they are going to stop, unless you just happen to be a denier who is buying into some less convincing theory including some of the goofballs who try to place bitcoin into a mature asset camp, which should be relatively clear that bitcoin really does not fit too well into a mature asset camp... and likely will not until after it goes through decent adoption which also likely involves a likely ongoing exponential s-curve that is far beyond what any normies expect, but accumulators and HODLers will likely be rewarded for their behaviors.. and at the same time, none of it is a given... which is back to the short term joke point....  "we all doesn't know".

[infofront]

All this talk of to the moon 2020 or 2021 is silly. We all know the real moon is in 2022. Or maybe 2023.

2022 seems to be the consensus. IMO that's a good indicator that we'll moon before or after 2022. Probably before, since most people also seem to be convinced that the BTC cycles are lengthening.

[HairyMaclairy]

Hey Jimbo

how about a Blue Jays halfway report?

The Jays are doing about as well as expected in a rebuilding year with a team consisting mostly of rookies. 2 of the 3 highly-touted  sons-of-superstars prospects have already been brought up (Guerrero and Biggio) and are already excelling. The 3rd, Bo Bichette is waiting in the wings.

[snip]

Writing like this could teach me to actually enjoy baseball

[mindrust]

...

I still remember 10 years ago, when I went into the bank and made a 5 year deposit with 4.5% year interest. I lived happily through those 5 years taking my profit. Until I heard of Bitcoin. What will be the interest of my Bitcoin deposit in 5 years? Incredibly high, for sure. Therefore, the price of suffering one more  bear year is insignificant compared to the prize after that.

...

I recently made a 6 month deposit with 3.25% (USD) yearly interest.  (nearly %25 of my total wealth) Not the most profitable investment I made since my btc investment is more than doubled itself in a couple of years.

You buy some gold, you buy some bitcoins, you buy some stocks (not a good idea now probably), you always keep some in a bank because banks are still kinda functioning and you still kinda need them for purchasing big stuff like houses, some at home as hard cash, if the amount is big enough some real estate in decent cities with low taxes, etc etc...

It is just a game of risk management.

You buy some risky assets, some less-risky assets, some solid assets, some barbaric relics... All has its spot in the game.

I don't trust banks but I don't want to lose my mind by watching crypto charts neither. (probably too late for that)

** Yes I'm going to wait 6 fucking months to get %1.625 (one point six two five percent) in profits (minus taxes). This is one of the most fucking terrible Investment ever.
*** Should I cancel that shit and go full btc?  

[HairyMaclairy]

Bitcoin crosses 64% dominance on cmc

The relentless Agony of the Alts...

Very nice to see on cmc a sea of red except for BTC.

And speaking of alts, (yeah, sorry bout that)....
....the winner of pop and flop shitcoin-of-the-day is.... Egretia   <prolonged whoopee cushion sound>

I am so badly disillusioned by shitcoins I don’t think I am capable of taking any blockchain project seriously.  And that’s probably not a good thing, because if something genuinely good does come along I will probably just reject it out of hand.

[realsteelboy]

At $100k I will be hodling more than 1BTC.

I am 100% certain of that.

[sirazimuth]

Bitcoin crosses 64% dominance on cmc

The relentless Agony of the Alts...

Very nice to see on cmc a sea of red except for BTC.

And speaking of alts, (yeah, sorry bout that)....
....the winner of pop and flop shitcoin-of-the-day is.... Egretia   <prolonged whoopee cushion sound>

I am so badly disillusioned by shitcoins I don’t think I am capable of taking any blockchain project seriously.  And that’s probably not a good thing, because if something genuinely good does come along I will probably just reject it out of hand.

You and me both my friend. (and most crypto seasoned folks on this thread too, no doubt)

[yefi]

The relentless Agony of the Alts...

The BTC/alt charts generally look terrible to me from a technical angle. A lot are in no man's land, where they've broken long-term support. I'm not touching that until I see signs of utter capitulation (sea of -2x%) or BTC's rally getting long in the tooth.

[wwzsocki]

Bitcoin crosses 64% dominance on cmc

The relentless Agony of the Alts...

Very nice to see on cmc a sea of red except for BTC.

And speaking of alts, (yeah, sorry bout that)....
....the winner of pop and flop shitcoin-of-the-day is.... Egretia   <prolonged whoopee cushion sound>

I am so badly disillusioned by shitcoins I don’t think I am capable of taking any blockchain project seriously.  And that’s probably not a good thing, because if something genuinely good does come along I will probably just reject it out of hand.

You and me both my friend. (and most crypto seasoned folks on this thread too, no doubt)

I still hope that from over 2000 alts there will be a couple of them finally successful and we see working products which indeed will revolutionize at least something as intended.

Maybe indeed more time is needed and in some cases, new regulations and licenses across the world. Doubtful that it will take less than a decade, but for good things is worth to wait a little longer   .

[fillippone]

Bitcoin crosses 64% dominance on cmc

The relentless Agony of the Alts...

Very nice to see on cmc a sea of red except for BTC.

And speaking of alts, (yeah, sorry bout that)....
....the winner of pop and flop shitcoin-of-the-day is.... Egretia   <prolonged whoopee cushion sound>

I am so badly disillusioned by shitcoins I don’t think I am capable of taking any blockchain project seriously.  And that’s probably not a good thing, because if something genuinely good does come along I will probably just reject it out of hand.

The time, the energies and the intellectual honesty you preserve not indulging in shitcoins project, will abundantly repay you for any (very unlikely) potential monetary gain you could face getting in the winning altcoin. If ever one will exist.

[bkbirge]

By the way, my response is kind of  serious, and LFC has been spouting off about moon in late 2020 or early 2021 for about 2 years now, which even if he is not exactly correct, I think that there is a decent amount of plausibility to build BTC price bubble theories around halvening effects, and even accounting for possible bubbles coming before the time line in your theory or even after, but bitcoin has been showing quite a few of these repeated bubble patterns playing out, and there is no real reason to believe that they are going to stop, unless you just happen to be a denier who is buying into some less convincing theory including some of the goofballs who try to place bitcoin into a mature asset camp, which should be relatively clear that bitcoin really does not fit too well into a mature asset camp... and likely will not until after it goes through decent adoption which also likely involves a likely ongoing exponential s-curve that is far beyond what any normies expect, but accumulators and HODLers will likely be rewarded for their behaviors.. and at the same time, none of it is a given... which is back to the short term joke point....  "we all doesn't know".

Good thoughtful post, I don't disagree with that. I do think a lot of price predictions get baked in long before they are supposed to happen so I don't really trust them too much but I do enjoy reading them. That doesn't mean I disagree that there will be many boom/bust cycles going forward or that there may be a pattern worth teasing out. I envy those that can actually trade the short term waves with enough consistent certainty to make a better long term profit than just holding. I'm not sure I've ever actually met one of those mythical traders, they might be unicorns.

The cool thing with BTC if you are real long is you won't ever have to figure out your exit strategy. Just wait for the adoption level to get to where price is no longer very volatile, and at that point there's probably no reason to even convert to fiat. That might be a wait in geologic time though, or never. The joke remains.

[bkbirge]

It is just a game of risk management.

You buy some risky assets, some less-risky assets, some solid assets, some barbaric relics... All has its spot in the game.

Sounds about right to me. I always get a chuckle on these boards when posters (present company excluded of course) recommend diversifying and their idea is to buy as many different tokens as possible.

[Globb0]

Bitcoin crosses 64% dominance on cmc

The relentless Agony of the Alts...

Very nice to see on cmc a sea of red except for BTC.

And speaking of alts, (yeah, sorry bout that)....
....the winner of pop and flop shitcoin-of-the-day is.... Egretia   <prolonged whoopee cushion sound>

I am so badly disillusioned by shitcoins I don’t think I am capable of taking any blockchain project seriously.  And that’s probably not a good thing, because if something genuinely good does come along I will probably just reject it out of hand.

The time, the energies and the intellectual honesty you preserve not indulging in shitcoins project, will abundantly repay you for any (very unlikely) potential monetary gain you could face getting in the winning altcoin. If ever one will exist.

It sounds so maximalist. Many people really got payed back so many X10's in those markets.

I don't disagree many of the projects are disgusting. How do they live on year after year?

[JayJuanGee]

All this talk of to the moon 2020 or 2021 is silly. We all know the real moon is in 2022. Or maybe 2023.

2022 seems to be the consensus. IMO that's a good indicator that we'll moon before or after 2022. Probably before, since most people also seem to be convinced that the BTC cycles are lengthening.

If you happen to read this thread (sarcasm intended), you would notice that consensus, to the extent that there is such a thing or that it matters, seems to be more in the early 2021 time frame.... , and surely there are questions  whether there is going to be a kind of double upwards boom like in 2013 or a kind of front running of the boom that would cause a decently-sized peak coming earlier than expected (even before the halvening) and lend some credibility to increase the likelihood of a kind of double peak that would still take place in late 2020 or up to mid 2021 when the effects of the halvening are actually felt in a more concrete way.

[JayJuanGee]

At $100k I will be hodling more than 1BTC.

I am 100% certain of that.

I'm tempted, but I am not going to ask.