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It is very possible that this is a pump, and we can expect a dump soon.
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bear market is only good for traders with great experience and dedicate alot of time daily. Casual trader will surely regret if he/she trade in bear market unless you buy some top tier coin when the price is deep with confidence that even if you dont make profit, at least you cannot make loss at the long run
Bear Market can be a good opportunity for hoarding cryptocurrencies. Many of our not so wealthy users had been buying small amounts of crypto (like minimum on our exchange - $30) and waiting patiently for the real bull run to happen. Eventually, in 2017 run those who bought at 2015 bottom made the easy profit, even if they lacked trading skills necessary for daily trading. |
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The only remaining question is - when the dump will start?  |
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Of course, halving will positively affect the market. Halving is reducing or cutting the rewards to be given to bitcoin miners, this will result in less supply and more demand also results in increase in price. The effect of halving may last for a long period of time. Many investors will be attracted to invest in cryptos and hopefully, the market will flood green marks for months.
Still, many miners right after halving generate losses for some period (eg. until they receive new mining rigs) and therefore they sell part of coins in their possession, usually pushing the price of that crypto lower, while some other miners simply switch from that crypto to one which is much more profitable to mine. |
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I think it is because America is the most developed and powerful country in the world in terms of economy and armed forces.
Bretton Woods 1944 Agreement is still in force and therefore USD is the global currency. Some would say that as long as it is the global currency, no crypto can become a true replacement for it. |
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Look at the price. ETH was 1098$ in Jan 2018 and after that price keeps falling and it's still 87% down from what it was in Early 2018. I think Eth just gave loss to its holder in those 2 years. But still its a very promising market and anything can happen next.
Unpopular opinion here - ETH is gradually switching to the form of a tool, not investment. |
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I think the trouble is until any coin has long-term stabilization, we won’t ever see use cases for crypto. Once this happens and people can actually convert fiat to crypto with confidence and pay a merchant with crypto as easy as they can tie their shoes, you will see more purchases. Also remember the average business fee per transaction is 2-6% for the merchant. This is a trickle down effect that effects everyone in the long run. Cryptocurrency will eliminate this and make it more efficient for the consumer.
And these fees depend from the type of the business accepting the payment (online/offline/products offered). Not to mention one important element, which in general can speed up the business relations - even within one country a wire transfer payment for your business partner can be booked on account on the next day (if you have accounts in two different banks) and order to be processed after 2 days. In comparison, with cryptos it can be almost instant, so then the product can be shipped easily within the same day. |
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fiat will be a scam or a fraud too.
Partial reserve by banks and printing fiat out of thin relying on the reputation of a state air is nothing else but a legalized scam. |
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Scam projects have indeed damaged and nearly killed many legitimate cryptocurrencies. The entire crypto space has been affected even though it will never be “killed” by these.
Not only cryptocurrencies themselves, but the whole environment which has significant problems with advertising - even though you are 100% legitimate business. Or alternatively - some companies related to processing payments regard any crypto business in the same category as gambling. |
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I think scammers don't sell the results of their fraud through exchanges that use KYC. Maybe for security reasons, they will move to a different address and then sell it on P2P exchanges like local bitcoin.
As well they can use mixers + crypto-to-crypto exchanges (which do not require KYC). But anyway, BTC is traceable. The more transactions on the wallet, the easier it is to track its owner. People using BTC for criminal activities on the Silkroad website learnt that in a harsh way. |
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Indeed. Not all governments are all in favor in bitcoin because even there are countries who accepts bitcoin as a currency like US, Switzerland, Australia, UK, and so on. The government still supports and regulate fiat, and bitcoin has a lot of issues due to scam accusations and about the changes of it's price that it started to go down badly.
Scalability, volatility but as well one of the elements of the Keynesian economy: In case of a financial crisis, states often print out more fiat currency out of thin air to minimize effects of such crisis, instead of reforming the system at where the true problem lies. Otherwise (as we have seen with Greece or Spain), the recovery from a crisis is very long and problematic. |
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Are stablecoins a solution against a bear market?
It depends on what you may expect from cryptocurrencies. If you consider cryptocurrencies as a form of investment - then in accordance with the rule "buy low, sell high" it may not be the case at all.
Still, buying stablecoins could mean that on many of exchanges you could buy other coins faster than by sending a wire transfer and waiting yet another couple of days for an update of your account balance (when the price may not be that attractive).
If on the other hand, the volatility of cryptocurrencies is an obstacle for you for sending funds (and you are not a fan of xrp), then stablecoins could be interesting (especially if you want to sign a long term contract with companies located abroad). The only fear here, as shared by many cryptoenthusiasts, is that stablecoins are on this moment purely fake and not backed by fiat money 1:1 as promised.
As well, depending on WHERE we observe a bear market - stablecoins might not be very attractive if the bear market applies to the economy of the country, to which fiat currency a stablecoin is pegged.
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There had been significant overhauls - just in 2019 there had been 3 of them: St. Petersburg, Constantinopole, Instanbul -eg. increasing safety from DDOS attacks, less gas used for smart contracts, more compatibility with other cryptocurrencies.
The developers of ETH listened to the criticism from 2018, and we are going forward to the ETH 2.0 with number of fixes and new functions.
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Technically it could be possible, that some of the cryptocurrencies could have been created for the purpose of black budgets of secret services.
If anyone is not familiar with that term - the "black budget" is unofficial budget os such services used for activities which are illegal or morally questionable and as such cannot be put in the official records (like bribery, arming insurgent groups during a civil war).
In this case, cryptocurrencies could be easier in use and transportation than banknotes.
Of course, this is just a conspiracy theory...
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Just like any other asset, dollar cost averaging into Bitcoin, or any crypto currency for that matter is the safest way to go. Ride the highs, ride the lows, remove the stress.
Sell during the hype, buy during the panic - with a correct approach even without a lot of trading skills you can accumulate a lot of BTC. See the scenario: Imagine you had eg. 10 BTC from 2011 and sold them close to the peak of 2017 (let's say $16000/each). After taxation (25%) you have $120000. In late 2018 when all the people are speaking about the death of Bitcoin, you buy BTC with that remaining amount - for price $4000 (close to the bottom). You get 30 BTC. You sold it in 2019 when the new hype started - you missed the peak, but still managed to sell it at $12000. You have $360000. You then bought at $8000 late during the year what makes you an owner of 45 BTC... |
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This is exactly what's in my mind already.
Those merchants as well as companies aren't sure yet whether they can handle such volatility or not. They could somehow make the payments be converted already to their local currency if they would like to avoid the unstable price pretty much the same way as how credit/debit cards complete a transaction.
Volatility could be problematic for taxation purposes, but even more - for long term contracts. As this could work for a small cafeteria, for a small business related to the industry it could work worse. |
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It's the perfect recipe for failure. The whole point of crypto is that you verify, and not trust. How can you verify that Brinks actually has enough Gold in its vaults to back up whatever Gold backed crypto? I don't want to trust on an "independent" entity doing the verification part and they then release a report that says they are backed. If I can't see that they are backed myself, their words hold no value. Bitcoin is Bitcoin. You can verify everything easily and fast with how transparent this whole system is. Why go back to something we try to get rid of?  The most important is that with cryptocurrencies if you send them to your own cold or hardware wallet it belongs to you unless it is stolen). With buying/trading precious metals in many countries (unless you get it with much worse spread) you just get a confirmation that you are an owner of some ounces of eg. gold in a gold bar stored 1500 miles away from you. When really needed you will have no access to such gold or it will be captured by authorities (as it already happened in the USA in 1933 with Executive Order 6102 by F.D.Roosevelt). |
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Safe and irreversible decentralized record storage.
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Fair enough. But I wonder if even such hype could make Bitcoin price move so suddenly, we know cryptocurrency markets are not mature markets but still that's a huge amount of money needed. If what you write is correct (which is absolutely possible) then it means Bitcoin price will basically never reach 100k, or at least not this decade. But deep inside I want to believe other factors came into play, namely manipulation from very big investors. Since early 2018 I noticed the price merely follows trading indicators, it has almost 0% fundamental right now, the price from 2018 has basically followed the same patterns we saw from 2013 to 2015. And this makes me curious about a repeat of 2017 run in 3 or 4 years from now, just because of pure trading action. Definitely possible I just hope next time people will be more careful, but we know they won't as FOMO can be very powerful. Well, each BTC cycle is longer than a previous one (what is a sign of maturing market), so then we may expect the real bull run in 2020-21. What would be the price level? When the market is getting more mature, usually the volatility goes down, so then it could be that $100k will not be reached in this decade. Still (tinfoil hat on mode), it could happen that if whales (among whom it is commonly believed there are big investment companies, like funds and banks) will manipulate the market in a longer pump and dump scheme boosted by the mainstream media, we could see a similar run like in 2017 (but maybe to $50k level top this cycle). But then if you will see almost everywhere headlines about how great BTC is, it would definitely not be the time to buy more (as an investment), rather opposite... |
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We have been to WebSummit 2018 in Lisbon, really interesting event, although not fully crypto/blockchain related.
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