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141  Economy / Speculation / Re: Comcast DNS Now Fails on Bitcoinica? on: January 23, 2012, 11:24:04 PM
i've entered preferred DNS server numbers into my IPv4 LAN connection settings a zillion times but never really understood what the hell i was doing.  so they don't have to be Cox's but any server i so choose? Grin

Right... you can even write your own DNS server that points every name to bitcoinica's IP if you so choose Wink.

FWIW, I've run a local DNS server since my client was OS2 2.0 and my connection was dial up, with a slow connection it did a lot for reducing perceived latency when web browsing.

These days there are a lot of alternatives, but the standard is a program called BIND, which can be had for just about any platform. Linux distributions provide it universally, and it's pretty tolerable to set up on Windows as well. It does things beyond simple caching that the built-in Windows DNS cache does not.

http://www.isc.org/software/bind

The simplest thing to set up with BIND is a caching server with forwarding, the last time I installed it under Windows ( sometime in the 1990s ) this was the default configuration. You do have to add the IP addresses for your forwarding servers ( e.g. your ISP ) and then point your local IP configuration to query the local name server at 127.0.0.1 .

The reason I mention all this is that I had a hard time replicating the problem described here, I'd never seen it. It had been so long since I did my set up I had to consider why.

As it turns out, my DNS forwarders are Comcast and Google. Here's a portion of my named.conf, one of the configuration files for bind ( the program executable is usually "named" or "named.exe" ).

        forward first;
        forwarders {
                75.75.75.75;
                75.75.76.76;
                8.8.8.8;
                8.8.4.4;
        };

Beyond that BIND will identify the authoritative name servers for a given name and query those directly, in this case NS1.XWAYLAB.COM and NS2.XWAYLAB.COM for bitcoinica.com .

So, using BIND can provide robust name resolution from multiple sources, it worked transparently for me with the bitcoinica .com DNSSEC issue present, most likely by using Google to resolve the authoritative servers and then using those to resolve the actual name.
142  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Bitcoinica model is flawed on: January 23, 2012, 04:46:43 PM
you cant go 10:1 over 2000 btc just saying

Assuming using only one account you are correct.

Bitcoinica just locks the front door when things get away from them, there are pluses and minuses to that approach.
143  Economy / Speculation / Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators on: January 23, 2012, 04:38:58 PM
Indicators stop indicating once they become known.

The truth is, many of the well-known indicators do work in practice, even though they're "known."  This is a common myth about technical analysis.  In fact, the fact that many people follow them makes them self-perpetuating, which serves to reinforce their usefulness.

One need only look at Goomboo's backtesting of the 10/21 EMA rule in order to see that simple and well-known things can still work. 

Combinations of moving averages of various types, sampling periods, and intervals can be used to fit a wide range of assertions to arbitrary data samples. I'm not dismissing Goomboo's results on that basis, I just know that to be true by virtue of having done it. In a small, mostly rigged game like bitcoin, I don't find technical analysis very meaningful at all. The best models for understanding bitcoin as it is can be found in the realm of pretty standard penny stock manipulations.
144  Economy / Speculation / Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators on: January 23, 2012, 04:11:03 PM
Note that PSAR is nothing magical. Most of time, it flips AFTER the change in sell/buy mood happens. At that time, it is obvious that rally/sellof started. But it looks nice when layed on historical data, though. ;-)

Agreed, I always found PSAR to be good for confirming what had already happened too late to act on it  Wink


Technical analysis is the practice of following trends.  If you want the PSAR or any other technical indicator to predict a reversal, good luck.

Though there were already downtrends before the PSAR flipped, it evidently served as a confirmation.

I was speaking in much broader terms of the applicability of the PSAR. There are measures I have found helpful, particularly after adjusting the parameters, I find the usual fixed default values for things like MACD, Bollinger bands, etc on most canned chart packages ( e.g. Bitcoinica's charts ) are not very useful.

I base this on having done quite a bit of back testing on historical data with all manner of measures. For example I was using Bollinger bands years before John Bollinger put his name on them and I found them very useful for picking entry points for an enhanced dollar cost averaging savings approach for mutual funds/IRAs/401K plans/etc. OTOH I find them much less useful in application to individual stocks.

It's worth going through the exercise of analyzing these measures that get tossed around so frequently, for one thing it becomes evident that by adjusting the parameters one can construct quite different conclusions for both specific and general scenarios.

As far as reversals go, the simplest example of a useful indicator I can think of would be a triple top or bottom, and those don't always work out either.

I definitely believe there is a large aspect of self fulfilling prophecy resulting from the use of the same technical indicators by so many parties. That alone is reason enough to watch them, but I don't believe anything all the time.

145  Economy / Speculation / Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators on: January 23, 2012, 03:36:07 PM
Note that PSAR is nothing magical. Most of time, it flips AFTER the change in sell/buy mood happens. At that time, it is obvious that rally/sellof started. But it looks nice when layed on historical data, though. ;-)

Agreed, I always found PSAR to be good for confirming what had already happened too late to act on it  Wink
146  Economy / Speculation / Re: Comcast DNS Now Fails on Bitcoinica? on: January 23, 2012, 03:32:27 PM
I have to think that this is all due to someone like from the thread of the year. Someone who was up a lot of money at bitcoinica and then got liquidated saying how much of a criminal zhou is. They probably wrote to the ISP and compelled them to remove the entry (or worked for Comcast). It would be interesting though if Zhou threatened legal action in retaliation for Comcast essentially removing his site from the internet.

Take a deep breath. A little paranoia around recent events is to be expected so it is helpful to know that and keep it in bounds.

As it turns out the technical explanation is reasonable, DNSSEC is working the way it is supposed to work. Are you ready for IPV6?  Smiley
147  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoinica: When does it implode? on: January 23, 2012, 04:18:09 AM
Someone set us up the bomb! Need more poll updates! All your Bitcoins are belong to us! Grin


Everyone was so happy with me when I dredged up this poll the last time that I wanted to know if that special feeling was a one time event  Wink

If you voted, you can always change it.
148  Economy / Speculation / Re: [Poll] What do you think the price will be 7 days froim now? on: January 23, 2012, 03:28:28 AM
Stable.. no..


Everyone realizing they cant change where ever the manipulator wants us,  Yes..


The manipulator is not a ghost anymore, they exist, they showed themselves last week in a bold show of power.

+1
You got it. Freeze like a bunny.
149  Economy / Speculation / Re: Question about Bitcoinica on: January 21, 2012, 09:07:22 PM
since we have now day 3 with the * on the buy side.. i see some interesting things going on in future..^^
if someone go short is a fool, because that give money to bitcoinica and that will give fuel so ppl can buy and go against your position

That is unless someone go's short big time and starts another liquidation snowball effect.
that can make a squeeze but like i said here after the leverage change made by Z is very hard to do that, since you cant leverage 10:1 move that 2k USD and even if u get 150k USD at 2,5:1 leverage your future victims are protected by the new leverage rules

One could try running ~100 bots at 10:1/$2000, although I would recommend starting small with the bot count and activity and doing some probing/tuning before executing an actual attempt. The following joke is also relevant:

A man noticed a farmer walking with three-legged pig on a leash. It looked very odd. He said, "Farmer, why are you walking a three-legged pig?"

"Why, stranger, this is no ordinary pig," the farmer replied. "One night our barn caught on fire, and before my wife and I even woke up, the pig had called the fire department, and herded all the other animals out of the barn. The next week, a burglar got into the house, and the pig had him tied up and the police were on their way before I even realized what had happened. Then just last week, I fell into the duck pond and was like to drown, except this pig jumped in and pulled me out. Like I say, this is no ordinary pig."

"Well, that truly is a remarkable pig. But tell me, how did he come to have only three legs?" "Are you kidding? A pig this good, you don't eat all at once."
150  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Large walls moving on Gox Orderbook (Diagram) updated on: January 21, 2012, 07:12:12 PM
This is great, thank you. The other day I was observing ask/bid curves during the major price swing, and it made me wonder how many players there were, actually... It seemed like the majority of the order book was controlled in unison by a single entity. For example, ask or bid curve retreating or advancing significantly while preserving their overall shapes. Most of orders were being canceled or placed in unison, and relatively few actually executed. Does this mean there was one big player in action (aka "the manipulator"), or there are lots of robots with very similar strategies?

P.S. I think this thread belong to the speculation board.

Yes. To speculation, agreed.

This has probably been posted in reference to walls before, but anyway:

Stupid sheep runs into a wall
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJaSBsJyOoM

Stupid, stupid sheep, look at them  Wink

151  Economy / Speculation / Re: Remember why you are here on: January 20, 2012, 09:36:30 PM
Don't sell into naysayers

Leave them behind


disclaimer: this is not trading advice, this is ideological principle

Thanks for the reminder, sometimes I forget that I'm here to serve my lord and master Satan in helping to bring suffering, desolation and hopelessness to all human beings. Be careful how you request something, otherwise you may not get the response you expect  Wink
152  Economy / Speculation / Re: one more poll on: January 20, 2012, 12:54:56 PM
There is at least one person who sometimes tries to manipulate people/bots using large orders that move around suddenly.

All the other hype about some magical mastermind are nonsense.

True, this kind of operation is right out of the Penny Stock Scams 101 course, it's not rocket science. In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king  Wink
153  Economy / Speculation / Re: one more poll on: January 20, 2012, 11:35:05 AM
If there wasn't a whale in the game before this week, there's bound to be several now.

If all it takes is $200K or so to make the price swings we have seen in the past few days, it could possibly be best to stand back and let them fight it out. All this tells me that until further notice bitcoin is strictly a lunch money grade amusement comparable to liar's poker played with one dollar bills.

Whether all those inclined to hold onto bitcoins can get flat by shorting an equal amount without drawing the attentions of this pod of killer whales, I don't know.

One thing is certain, the biggest show in Nakamototown right now is at the Bitcoinica casino, the rest of the bitcoin world is a bunch of hot dog stands surrounding it.
154  Economy / Speculation / Re: The price has bounced right back on: January 20, 2012, 01:31:55 AM

Someone is trying to suppress the price.

[Edit] Make that 4 groupings. Someone is trying hard.

Time to go get 'em tiger, you first  Wink
155  Bitcoin / Mining software (miners) / Re: CGMINER - Remove CPU mining? on: January 19, 2012, 10:05:56 PM
Strip it out and get rid of it. People that need CPU mining have other miner software they can use.

To quote Spock...

"The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one."


"Ah, an educated Vulcan... like Karl Marx himself."

Who's a cute little Spock quoter? You are! You are!  Grin
156  Economy / Speculation / Re: Rally starting at 4 pm EST on: January 19, 2012, 09:48:16 PM
maybe they all decided to go get a beer instead?

You got it. If they're screwing around with bitcoins at all right now, they're on their phones playing a game of "Probe The Starfish" between drinks. Lots of "Hey! Watch this!", "Oooh! That was tight!" and hootin' and hollerin'. Then it will be time for dinner. America Drinks And Goes Home  Grin
157  Economy / Speculation / Re: Where is the big money trading on margin? on: January 19, 2012, 07:18:07 PM
psssst...OP...over here <looks furtively back and forth>

you want to know where the real money in leverage is?

operating the bucket shop

Looks like it's time to give the throttle another twist, oboy oboy oboy! You may start dancing on the command:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60307.msg702249#msg702249

These free markets are so cool and all and everything, don't you feel free? I know I do  Wink
158  Economy / Speculation / Re: new bitcoinica promo ? no spread ? on: January 19, 2012, 07:03:23 PM
We lowered the spread temporarily because we had been in asterisk mode for a long time. Just recovered from that and we want some volume to heat up the market again.

Oh god.

I wonder what kind of Elliott Wave pattern that is  Wink
159  Economy / Speculation / Re: Has anyone received funds from bitcoinica recently? on: January 19, 2012, 04:49:54 PM
as long as the * is up, no one gets USD's  Grin

 Shocked !!! That's not how it's supposed to work, is it?
160  Economy / Speculation / Re: Starfished for over 3 hours? on: January 19, 2012, 04:41:23 PM
So I just got up.  Have we still been * for the last 12 h
?

My market order for 1 btc went through an hour ago (it had been placed nearly 24 hours ago)

Edit: That said, it immediately went back to * after it got executed

I have a canary ( tiny ) limit buy order that's around 25 hours old and should have been hit several times. There are some posts elsewhere here grousing about getting withdrawals. I could imagine lots of things going on within the operation, and that includes nothing in particular; this could be the new normal. Yawn.
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