Daily SMA200. 2nd attempt.  I'm no chart expert but that first test was never gonna hold as the SMA50 was miles away, this one might - esp if the 50 crosses this time. Could be all kinds of gains if that happens! edit: i dunno if its relevant but the SMA30 is very close to crossing, if i did this chart thing then i'd probably go for a 30/200 crossover as 200 is always the default 'long term' and 30 seems like the logical (monthly) medium term one to choose. like i say, i'm no expert though  |
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That said, the main reason that I do believe bubble size growth will decrease over time is that I believe that as the market gets bigger, the market also becomes more professional, which also entails it becomes more opportunistic, which entails profits will be taken earlier (because if you don't take profits comparably early, someone else will, and suddenly there are no profits for you to take anymore - i.e. a game theoretic understanding emerges that profits need to be taken earlier as time progresses), which entails the bubbles will overshoot less than they did in the past.
I think that is spot on what is going to happen, its the best I'm hoping for in the circumstances. Any other crazy MOON ideas occupy the same part of my brain that thinks I'm gonna win the lottery or something, nice to dream but unlikely to happen! That kind of choppy slower growth ties in with how I felt about it being harder now to hold as it rises, because there will be so many more profit-taking driven sell offs. They'll keep spooking the holders. If you are long term hold and skim though you should realise this isn't a problem, it doesn't matter if any price action is super-exponential or merely linear, your strategy remains the same, and it still works. (Until it doesn't of course, but that should never be a surprise to anyone signed up for this roller coaster.) |
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[
I was bashing another poster's homogeneous and parochial minded 'right wing' ego-centric ideology. 99% of the time, such an ideology is reserved for a section of the American population who suffer from both cultural ignorance and cultural arrogance which results in them having a very blinkered view of geo-politics and life in general.
I think you are wrong on 2 points: 1) Americans are far, far from the worst. Germans, Swedes, Australians are all (in my experience) worse. Every Asian country is much worse, and I have lived in Asia for 15 years. 2) If you think it is a right wing phenomenon, you haven't dealt with left wing NGO/charity employees. It is cultural ignorance and arrogance. But it is not a right wing American phenomenon. There's really bad situations in many countries (specially the most economically relevant ones). However, I don't think we should be bashing each other when there are catholic and orthodox churches being bombed almost every day in arabic countries. And I by no means mean it's the general population. Just putting things in perspective... I don't think it has so much to do with countries, as it does to do with *people*. People are crazy. |
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ITT: falling jumps the shark
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the average Bitcoiner will tell you " go fuck your self" and will add " what this PHD holder and nobel winner know about economics", in fact Bitcoin price is a bubble but it doesn't mean that it will die, but it will settle and start a normal growth when it hits the real economy... see the bubble was because of the small userbase but when the user base is bigger and market is bigger it will harder to move the price 10X a year.
look at the weekly chart:
<btc chart>
life cycle of a bubble
<THAT chart>
One time THAT chart might be right. Your job is figuring out whether its this time. |
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I think they probably just have it in for you  |
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Kraken....
The one exchange that actually says "Lube up!" when you submit for a KYC? At least they used to. TBH I didn't notice any difference in their KYC proceedings, what did I miss? They did when i signed up to them a few months back, same requirements as stamp. passport, utility bill etc |
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More thinking. this kind of thing http://diginomica.com/2014/06/16/internets-disruptive-hold-tight-blockchain/ reminds me that the block chain encodes all sorts of data. i can see a future where it is *expensive* to use the block chain for transactions, because the block chain is a very valuable resource. its a worldwide collaborative repository of information, and its extensible such that those transactions can encode all sorts of other information. that kind of authoritative repository is valuable, its a limited resource (think block size) and as such competition to use that resource will drive transaction fees. bitcoin banks will use it for settlement. intra bank transfers will generate revenue for them, which they can use to pay for actual transaction fees on the block chain and pocket the difference. the more customers you have the more you can drive down fees. bitcoin banks can (and must) prove reserves. i expect some won't, i expect some customers might not care, i expect this is a legitimate strategy in a free market, risk is known, but you might get cheaper fees. maybe insurers will create services that cover this. all of the things that currently exist in our economy can potentially exist with bitcoin *except* inflation. a paper market for bitcoin may very well spring up, much like for gold, and people may very well speculate that all the same things are happening! in the end though, a bitcoin will always be a bitcoin, you might keep a whole bunch under the mattress for a rainy day, but it may be that transaction fees do become so expensive as to prohibit micro transactions directly on the block chain, and so in the end we will be force to use some kind of banking service. other solution(s) may exist, i haven't thought of anything yet, but perhaps others already have and are building them as we speak! |
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transaction fees take over as block reward long before block reward becomes marginal.
thats the kind of thing people should be worried about, whether that assumption plays out, adjusting their risk/reward accordingly
seriously all this stuff is bitcoin 101, even *I* know it !
Well I never knew that. I do now, and all that I had to do was subject myself to a mild dose of English condescension in order to find out. So what we can deduce from that, is that Bitcoin transaction fees are one day, set to become fucking humongous? Totally ill suited to everyday transactions? It's in the wiki article, which people would do well to read before investing thousands http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin#OverviewSubjecting yourself to condescension to find stuff like this out is optional as far as I know! You raise a good point though, I've thought about the implications of that a lot, I've thought of side chains, prioritisation, off chain transactions as all being potential reasons why that might not be the case, but in the end it keeps coming back up as a fairly difficult 'problem' to get around. The only thing keeping me going is that something that nobody has thought of will happen, and that from a perfectly selfish point of view 140 years is a long way off. The chance this is a precursor to another system is high. Whether that means we won't have BTTM (bitcoin to the moon) in the meantime is still anyone's guess. I think its still worth a punt. Or rather, that I need to be insured against the risk of it happening. FOMO powered 'investing' |
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transaction fees take over as block reward long before block reward becomes marginal.
thats the kind of thing people should be worried about, whether that assumption plays out, adjusting their risk/reward accordingly
seriously all this stuff is bitcoin 101, even *I* know it !
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To think, this is a random day in the world. But in bitcoinland its just another crazy thursday.
The 339 crash. This relatively big dip. Various upswings on thursdays.
What is it about Thursdays that has bitcoinland going crazy?
mercury in retrograde right before the friday the 13th on a full moon, on the day the silk road coins are put up for sale? if i didn't live it id say it was a movie script. interesting points! quite a confluence |
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Again, a pool is only as strong as the trust individuals place in it. With a public ledger this trust is not blind but checked and verified constantly ======= Exactly, and same as this statement, it is just as true that the NSA/government is only as powerful and relevant as the people allow it to be. People have been so conditioned by this evil empire as a single organism like "god" - with the same sort of power, all knowing, all seeing, all powerful, so any time they hear about the government doing this or that, they freak the fuck out like somebody got god all up in a tizzy and now the fire and brimstone fireworks are coming and we're all going to be punished for disobeying the great and powerful Oz. In real life, there is no god government, no "illuminati" crap...there are only individuals making up agencies in a larger network of other agencies. It's not a single entity that controls the world. It's a lot of clusterfucked smaller agencies with the advantage of having a system that is so fucking ridiculously filled with red tape and loop holes that no single individual or even chain of command even knows the whole system inside out. It's all just PEOPLE at the end of the day. It looks spooky only because there are so many channels to deal with it's overwhelming...and it looks like genius to the outsider being victimized by it. They got this sewn up to where we *can't* comply even when we truly want to...they've made us all slaves. We surrender. No. In real life they don't have any centralized control either, the one arm has no fucking clue what any other arm is doing, and one arm's rules conflict with some other arm and nobody can get shit accomplished because there's no end to the run around. This is NOT by design of some brilliant 300 year old secret cartel else they'd have been murdered in their sleep already. This is a result of PEOPLE not being capable of large scale concentrated coordinated efforts. Plain and simple. Small groups yes, but THE GOVERNMENT or THE NSA is not an entity. It's just a large number of PEOPLE with conflicting ideals, goals, rules and red tape that make it such a clusterfuck of horse shit, nobody has time to deal with the overwhelming string of endless nonsense from one branch to the next. The NSA isn't the spy god in the shadows. It's just PEOPLE getting other PEOPLE to give them information. If the other people decided not to, the NSA would grind to a halt and look like as much of a joke as the pope looks these days. They're only as powerful as other people ALLOW. Most of the success of the NSA has come directly from the reality other people are lazy and unwittingly making accessing them easy. When they wise up and start implementing various blocking security, the NSA loses enormous power...same for any other branch of the government. Bottom line with all this fear mongering on here...if the NSA *could* do it, if any wealthy billionaire *could* do it, why HAVEN'T THEY done it already? Bitcoin's been around going on 6 years or so right? The more time passes, the less bitcoin are mined, so it'd have been far more worth their effort to pull this early on...but they didn't. A lot of the fear mongers on this issue don't seem to properly understand MEMG. I'm not even remotely pretending I fully understand the 51% attack in entirety but I do understand it enough through reading more on it to know that MEMG applies in this case making it unlikely. MEMG = Minimum Effort, Maximum Gain Anyone with significant resources to successfully implement a 51% attack would not even remotely near a break even point in gains, and would then be blocked and obsolete as the responders took control. Nobody who is capable of making the money required to obtain these sorts of resources is stupid and irresponsible enough to pose that sort of risk to their OWN financial means. Their goal is making money, not losing it. For them to spend thousands of dollars in resources for a momentary minimal gain is insanely stupid...maximum effort for minimum, short lived temporary low gain that doesn't even provide a recovering of their investment. That's WHY nobody would actually DO it...just because they CAN do it doesn't mean it's going to happen anymore than any one of you CAN stand in front of a speeding bullet train and potentially survive and sue the train company for damages and make a million dollars you'll be forking over to a hospital the rest of your life...but only a dumbass would actually DO it. And if one dumbass does do it, it's not bringing down the train companies, the medical institutions, or the legal profession. It's just weeding out the next winner of the Darwin Awards. *golf clap* |
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you will be lucky if you ever see any of your BTC ever again.
Yes, that sums up the value proposition. Chance of seeing some percentage of coins vs cost of those coins. |
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definitely china has banned bitcoin
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It's still the same percentage of the total mining rewards we are looking at.
Right. But a potential attacker isn't interested in percentages. He is interested in raw dollar amounts. If he can find a way to get more money with an attack than with mining, then there could be trouble. Add to that the potential for an irrational actor, someone with the psychological makeup of the Joker, and this isn't really something that should be ignored, imo. The Foundation should proactively work on a solution. I think the point you seem to be missing is: *he can't* |
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and what happens when a pool hits 60% or 70%? no risk still?
never happen?
im not sure there is any point in you using the question mark when you write posts, because the question mark implies you are asking a question. This in turn usually means you seek an answer. And yet, having been provided answers to these and other questions you are still compelled to post, asking the same questions. Did you read the answers to your previous question? Did you understand that the more hashing power you get the closer you get to being able to control the block chain, but that the potential benefit of doing so is far outweighed by the number of coins you get if you just hashed? Can this be put to you any more simply? |
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If i did have to make a chart illustrate it, it might look like this...  Trend is up volatility slowly decreases over time 5k is only a few years out but the road there is strewn with doubt. But what will happen as price continues into this contracting range? Either way, it can't sustain forever, and a new trend must develop. I dunno but 2 years away is already far too long a timescale for 99% of people on this forum charts aren't my bag though, so absolutely don't make any decisions based on my hacked together pngs! This was just a visual that kind of shows what i thought might generally happen. id fully expect those lines to not actually be a meaningful price boundaries. |
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0b100101010000001011111001000000000
thats your starting block reward in satoshis
every 210k blocks bitwise shift it right (i.e. drop the rightmost digit)
thats your new block reward
eg 8th operation in approx 25 years or so...
0b1001010100000010111110010 = 19531250 satoshis = 0.1953125 BTC
and finally after 32 operations in approx 2136 you are left with
0b1
the last block reward is 1 satoshi
the final bitwise shift in approx 2140 leaves you with zero
even the most cursory review of blockchain reward mechanism would lead to the understanding that fees become more important than block reward long before this happens.
if people read just half as much as they posted this place would be half as spammy and 4 times smarter.
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If i did have to make a chart illustrate it, it might look like this... Trend is up volatility slowly decreases over time 5k is only a few years out but the road there is strewn with doubt. |
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