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1481  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: March 27, 2014, 08:07:05 PM
I had been pointing out this problem over the past weeks and months (remember upthread I pointed out that automating this computation was not realistic):

http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2014/03/why-bitcoin-can-no-longer-work-as-a-virtual-currency-in-1-paragraph/359648/

Quote
If I have to figure out which particular Bitcoin in my wallet I want to spend and what the tax treatment will be, Bitcoin just doesn't work as a commercial medium of exchange.

But that article points out another problem with the fact that Bitcoin is not untaxable as legal tender:

Quote
The price at which a particular Bitcoin was acquired (and this is traceable) determines the capital gains on that particular Bitcoin when spent.  If I spend Bitcoin A, which I bought at $10, but is now worth $400, I’ve got a very different tax treatment than if I spend Bitcoin B, which I bought at $390. […] This means Bitcoins are not fungible, and that makes it unworkable as a currency.

The reason this destroys fungibility is that people will need to think about tax timing and implications when spending money, i.e. they have to bind their money to their total tax planning.

That is the antithesis of money, because you reduce the degrees-of-freedom and remember the entire point of money was to eliminate the gridlock of barter and make it easy to transact without the requirement to find matching scenarios.

This is major! This just destroyed Bitcoin. If you don't understand this, you really better take some deep thought time.

Actually I think I may have pointed this out last year in the thread by deisik in the Economics forum.

You are coming to my bandwagon whether you like it or not. Because I saw these problems early and began formulating the solutions many months ago. So am quite far along already.

Those who were friendly to me are now being rewarded and handed the resources to be leaders, because they showed that they were astute and possess a group-think filter so as to think out-of-the-box. And they now know something you don't. Wink
1482  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Is a Madmax outcome coming before 2020? Thus do we need anonymity? on: March 27, 2014, 07:36:37 PM
On the recent IRS ruling that BTC is property subject to capital gains on disposal of coins, and that miners must additionally pay income tax on the value of the BTC when mined, someone thinks being outside the USA will help but they are sorely mistaken...

The IRS has gotten it all wrong. All their statement will do is push onshore people to offshore services and companies where they cannot be taxed. I live and work in an offshore country where there are no capital gains taxes and cryptos aren't taxed in any shape or form. I'm already seeing a rise in what can best be described as "offshore crypto farms"...

As a former Treasury official was purported to have said, "we will burn the fingers of the goldbugs up to their armpits". And he also said, "its our dollar and your problem".

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/03/24/the-real-conspiracy-the-imf-tax-agenda/

Quote
Obama is on board fully with the IMF agenda to raise taxes substantially French style. The IMF has been behind the scenes going to every former tax shelter and threatening them to turn over data. They have hit the Caribbean islands right down to Panama. Obama has laced the Ukrainian aid with the IMF Poison Pill. The IMF wants a shit load of money to tear apart the global economy in search of unpaid taxes. The Obama Administration has conspired with the IMF behind closed doors and entirely out of the Congress to pursue this secret agenda. They are on the path to destroy Western Civilization as we know it. This is no joke.


...thus we headed into a crazy period where the governments will try to fund the $150223 trillion global debt bubble [4] by hunting down all private capital (G20 announced a database for this today, NSA will contribute and note this is the bankster business model for them to own everything), then as Bitcoin is taken over top-down then the alternative coin with the above features will take over and become the surviving private sector. For this new virtual economy...


I hope you also understand that FATCHA will compel the nations of the banks in all nations to comply and remember the developing world is short the dollar due to massive bond issues in dollars to the ZIRP carry trade. The USA is still in control of the world as we go into this implosion 2016ish.


My understanding is FATCHA does not require us to declare assets we hold overseas which are not in an "account", i.e. Nestmann said we probably do not need to report bullion that we hold in our homes, yet we would need to report (even allocated) bullion in any overseas account.

Are Bitcoins a private asset or an account? And where do they reside in our possession or in the public ledger? And where does the public ledger reside?

The problem is that governments (IRS in particular) invariably interprets laws in the way that brings them the most income. So I think they can argue (in their Kangaroo rigged courts) that since the public ledger resides in at least one computer overseas, then it is reportable under FATCHA.

Okay so no big deal right? Just report it. Well what about all of you who did not report on time already and held an account that was ever worth more than $10,000? You are already liable for 5X the maximum value of the unreported account in penalties plus 5 years jail time.

And reporting marks us in the IRS computers as "potential tax avoiders". The chance of audit drastically increases.

This is one of those issues that caused me to think it just isn't worth investing in Bitcoin without 100% reliable anonymity.

I am eager for someone to refute my analysis on this.


Disclaimer: consult your own tax attorney, I am not providing tax advice, merely discussing this issue.





Regarding the illuminati fears... superstitious is the end of reason.

Those who confuse superstition with exquisitely researched facts have lost rationality.

For those who think there is no global conspiracy, you are apparently not aware of Anthony Sutton:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSVWXmZB1wc


See below on what the former IRS Commissioner told Aaron Russo when he was making the movie about there being no income tax law in the USA.


Martin Armstrong's position has been there is no proof of a global conspiracy, and he doesn't speculate. That is an acceptable position, except that he continues to assert there is no global conspiracy, which is thus speculation, since he doesn't have any proof to support that assertion. So I urge him to stop being disingenuous and appearing to be a tool of the elite towards a one world currency which he has proposed as a solution to this crisis.

As for proof of a global conspiracy, we got a big chunk of proof from Aaron Russo as follows.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=279650.msg3497509#msg3497509

Quote from: AnonyMint
As a Treasury official said some decade ago about the time he also said, "we will burn the fingers of the goldbugs up to their armpits", it has always been the plan to go after the millionaires and steal back all their gains to the elite (skip to 36:35 min of the linked video) who run the fiat system. And Bitcoin is an amazingly great tracking tool to aid them in this coming global confiscation via taxation of the rich process. Note the elite super rich are always excluded from such gestapos.

Former (Jewish?) IRS Commissioner and the man who wrote much of the tax code law, said to (Jew) Aaron Russo (producer of Bette Midler, The Rose, Trading Places, etc) in Ashkenazi Jewish Yiddish language, "nothing will help you". Skip to the 37 min point in the linked video.

The elite know exactly what they are doing by launching Bitcoin via the fictitious anonymous identity "Satoshi".

Nick Rockefeller told Aaron Russo what the goal is.

P.S. The Ashkenazi Jews have a much higher average IQ of 117, and many elite are Ashkenazi Jews. The says nothing against all Jews however.

Also it is rather incredulous to discount the fact that all the transition to AML, KYC which is enabling this hunt for capital which Martin admits and writes about, was engineered starting with 9/11. And it pretty difficult to discount that 9/11 was not done by 16 guys on camels and was rather engineered by ... (much circumstantial evidence points to Dick Cheney as key cog in the wheel). They evidence that the buildings were not downed with airplanes is overwhelming, even 1000s of architects and engineers have signed a petition saying the government's story is implausible. And this terrorism false flag farce is being used to keep the world locked into a non-default increasing debt trajectory with a hunt for all capital. Precisely what is necessary to drive the world into a severe economic contagion which can usher in a one-world currency type result after destroying the nation-state concept.

I am not sure there is a global conspiracy. And it doesn't really affect my actions nor goals any way. So I don't really care. But I am skeptical of a guy (Armstrong) who says speaks against decentralized cryptocurrencies, speaks for a one-world currency solution (with national or regional currencies floating relative to it), and who speaks against the possibility of the global conspiracy without any proof.

Just because Armstrong is aware of manipulations at the lower-level echelon of the NY bankers club is not proof that the higher echelon doesn't exist. Logic 101 really.


Update: Armstrong writes today about the $2.3 trillion missing from Pentagon accounting and paperwork was conveniently destroyed at the Pentagon on 9/11.
1483  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: "Failure to Understand Bitcoin Could Cost Investors Billions" (Bitcoin's flaws) on: March 27, 2014, 07:34:56 PM
On the recent IRS ruling that BTC is property subject to capital gains on disposal of coins, and that miners must additionally pay income tax on the value of the BTC when mined, someone thinks being outside the USA will help but they are sorely mistaken...

The IRS has gotten it all wrong. All their statement will do is push onshore people to offshore services and companies where they cannot be taxed. I live and work in an offshore country where there are no capital gains taxes and cryptos aren't taxed in any shape or form. I'm already seeing a rise in what can best be described as "offshore crypto farms"...

As a former Treasury official was purported to have said, "we will burn the fingers of the goldbugs up to their armpits". And he also said, "its our dollar and your problem".

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/03/24/the-real-conspiracy-the-imf-tax-agenda/

Quote
Obama is on board fully with the IMF agenda to raise taxes substantially French style. The IMF has been behind the scenes going to every former tax shelter and threatening them to turn over data. They have hit the Caribbean islands right down to Panama. Obama has laced the Ukrainian aid with the IMF Poison Pill. The IMF wants a shit load of money to tear apart the global economy in search of unpaid taxes. The Obama Administration has conspired with the IMF behind closed doors and entirely out of the Congress to pursue this secret agenda. They are on the path to destroy Western Civilization as we know it. This is no joke.


...thus we headed into a crazy period where the governments will try to fund the $150223 trillion global debt bubble [4] by hunting down all private capital (G20 announced a database for this today, NSA will contribute and note this is the bankster business model for them to own everything), then as Bitcoin is taken over top-down then the alternative coin with the above features will take over and become the surviving private sector. For this new virtual economy...


I hope you also understand that FATCHA will compel the nations of the banks in all nations to comply and remember the developing world is short the dollar due to massive bond issues in dollars to the ZIRP carry trade. The USA is still in control of the world as we go into this implosion 2016ish.


My understanding is FATCHA does not require us to declare assets we hold overseas which are not in an "account", i.e. Nestmann said we probably do not need to report bullion that we hold in our homes, yet we would need to report (even allocated) bullion in any overseas account.

Are Bitcoins a private asset or an account? And where do they reside in our possession or in the public ledger? And where does the public ledger reside?

The problem is that governments (IRS in particular) invariably interprets laws in the way that brings them the most income. So I think they can argue (in their Kangaroo rigged courts) that since the public ledger resides in at least one computer overseas, then it is reportable under FATCHA.

Okay so no big deal right? Just report it. Well what about all of you who did not report on time already and held an account that was ever worth more than $10,000? You are already liable for 5X the maximum value of the unreported account in penalties plus 5 years jail time.

And reporting marks us in the IRS computers as "potential tax avoiders". The chance of audit drastically increases.

This is one of those issues that caused me to think it just isn't worth investing in Bitcoin without 100% reliable anonymity.

I am eager for someone to refute my analysis on this.


Disclaimer: consult your own tax attorney, I am not providing tax advice, merely discussing this issue.





Regarding the illuminati fears... superstitious is the end of reason.

Those who confuse superstition with exquisitely researched facts have lost rationality.

For those who think there is no global conspiracy, you are apparently not aware of Anthony Sutton:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSVWXmZB1wc


See below on what the former IRS Commissioner told Aaron Russo when he was making the movie about there being no income tax law in the USA.


Martin Armstrong's position has been there is no proof of a global conspiracy, and he doesn't speculate. That is an acceptable position, except that he continues to assert there is no global conspiracy, which is thus speculation, since he doesn't have any proof to support that assertion. So I urge him to stop being disingenuous and appearing to be a tool of the elite towards a one world currency which he has proposed as a solution to this crisis.

As for proof of a global conspiracy, we got a big chunk of proof from Aaron Russo as follows.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=279650.msg3497509#msg3497509

Quote from: AnonyMint
As a Treasury official said some decade ago about the time he also said, "we will burn the fingers of the goldbugs up to their armpits", it has always been the plan to go after the millionaires and steal back all their gains to the elite (skip to 36:35 min of the linked video) who run the fiat system. And Bitcoin is an amazingly great tracking tool to aid them in this coming global confiscation via taxation of the rich process. Note the elite super rich are always excluded from such gestapos.

Former (Jewish?) IRS Commissioner and the man who wrote much of the tax code law, said to (Jew) Aaron Russo (producer of Bette Midler, The Rose, Trading Places, etc) in Ashkenazi Jewish Yiddish language, "nothing will help you". Skip to the 37 min point in the linked video.

The elite know exactly what they are doing by launching Bitcoin via the fictitious anonymous identity "Satoshi".

Nick Rockefeller told Aaron Russo what the goal is.

P.S. The Ashkenazi Jews have a much higher average IQ of 117, and many elite are Ashkenazi Jews. The says nothing against all Jews however.

Also it is rather incredulous to discount the fact that all the transition to AML, KYC which is enabling this hunt for capital which Martin admits and writes about, was engineered starting with 9/11. And it pretty difficult to discount that 9/11 was not done by 16 guys on camels and was rather engineered by ... (much circumstantial evidence points to Dick Cheney as key cog in the wheel). They evidence that the buildings were not downed with airplanes is overwhelming, even 1000s of architects and engineers have signed a petition saying the government's story is implausible. And this terrorism false flag farce is being used to keep the world locked into a non-default increasing debt trajectory with a hunt for all capital. Precisely what is necessary to drive the world into a severe economic contagion which can usher in a one-world currency type result after destroying the nation-state concept.

I am not sure there is a global conspiracy. And it doesn't really affect my actions nor goals any way. So I don't really care. But I am skeptical of a guy (Armstrong) who says speaks against decentralized cryptocurrencies, speaks for a one-world currency solution (with national or regional currencies floating relative to it), and who speaks against the possibility of the global conspiracy without any proof.

Just because Armstrong is aware of manipulations at the lower-level echelon of the NY bankers club is not proof that the higher echelon doesn't exist. Logic 101 really.


Update: Armstrong writes today about the $2.3 trillion missing from Pentagon accounting and paperwork was conveniently destroyed at the Pentagon on 9/11.
1484  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: March 27, 2014, 07:25:02 PM
On the recent IRS ruling that BTC is property subject to capital gains on disposal of coins, and that miners must additionally pay income tax on the value of the BTC when mined, someone thinks being outside the USA will help but they are sorely mistaken...

The IRS has gotten it all wrong. All their statement will do is push onshore people to offshore services and companies where they cannot be taxed. I live and work in an offshore country where there are no capital gains taxes and cryptos aren't taxed in any shape or form. I'm already seeing a rise in what can best be described as "offshore crypto farms"...

As a former Treasury official was purported to have said, "we will burn the fingers of the goldbugs up to their armpits". And he also said, "its our dollar and your problem".

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/03/24/the-real-conspiracy-the-imf-tax-agenda/

Quote
Obama is on board fully with the IMF agenda to raise taxes substantially French style. The IMF has been behind the scenes going to every former tax shelter and threatening them to turn over data. They have hit the Caribbean islands right down to Panama. Obama has laced the Ukrainian aid with the IMF Poison Pill. The IMF wants a shit load of money to tear apart the global economy in search of unpaid taxes. The Obama Administration has conspired with the IMF behind closed doors and entirely out of the Congress to pursue this secret agenda. They are on the path to destroy Western Civilization as we know it. This is no joke.


...thus we headed into a crazy period where the governments will try to fund the $150223 trillion global debt bubble [4] by hunting down all private capital (G20 announced a database for this today, NSA will contribute and note this is the bankster business model for them to own everything), then as Bitcoin is taken over top-down then the alternative coin with the above features will take over and become the surviving private sector. For this new virtual economy...


I hope you also understand that FATCHA will compel the nations of the banks in all nations to comply and remember the developing world is short the dollar due to massive bond issues in dollars to the ZIRP carry trade. The USA is still in control of the world as we go into this implosion 2016ish.


My understanding is FATCHA does not require us to declare assets we hold overseas which are not in an "account", i.e. Nestmann said we probably do not need to report bullion that we hold in our homes, yet we would need to report (even allocated) bullion in any overseas account.

Are Bitcoins a private asset or an account? And where do they reside in our possession or in the public ledger? And where does the public ledger reside?

The problem is that governments (IRS in particular) invariably interprets laws in the way that brings them the most income. So I think they can argue (in their Kangaroo rigged courts) that since the public ledger resides in at least one computer overseas, then it is reportable under FATCHA.

Okay so no big deal right? Just report it. Well what about all of you who did not report on time already and held an account that was ever worth more than $10,000? You are already liable for 5X the maximum value of the unreported account in penalties plus 5 years jail time.

And reporting marks us in the IRS computers as "potential tax avoiders". The chance of audit drastically increases.

This is one of those issues that caused me to think it just isn't worth investing in Bitcoin without 100% reliable anonymity.

I am eager for someone to refute my analysis on this.


Disclaimer: consult your own tax attorney, I am not providing tax advice, merely discussing this issue.





Regarding the illuminati fears... superstitious is the end of reason.

Those who confuse superstition with exquisitely researched facts have lost rationality.

For those who think there is no global conspiracy, you are apparently not aware of Anthony Sutton:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSVWXmZB1wc


See below on what the former IRS Commissioner told Aaron Russo when he was making the movie about there being no income tax law in the USA.


Martin Armstrong's position has been there is no proof of a global conspiracy, and he doesn't speculate. That is an acceptable position, except that he continues to assert there is no global conspiracy, which is thus speculation, since he doesn't have any proof to support that assertion. So I urge him to stop being disingenuous and appearing to be a tool of the elite towards a one world currency which he has proposed as a solution to this crisis.

As for proof of a global conspiracy, we got a big chunk of proof from Aaron Russo as follows.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=279650.msg3497509#msg3497509

Quote from: AnonyMint
As a Treasury official said some decade ago about the time he also said, "we will burn the fingers of the goldbugs up to their armpits", it has always been the plan to go after the millionaires and steal back all their gains to the elite (skip to 36:35 min of the linked video) who run the fiat system. And Bitcoin is an amazingly great tracking tool to aid them in this coming global confiscation via taxation of the rich process. Note the elite super rich are always excluded from such gestapos.

Former (Jewish?) IRS Commissioner and the man who wrote much of the tax code law, said to (Jew) Aaron Russo (producer of Bette Midler, The Rose, Trading Places, etc) in Ashkenazi Jewish Yiddish language, "nothing will help you". Skip to the 37 min point in the linked video.

The elite know exactly what they are doing by launching Bitcoin via the fictitious anonymous identity "Satoshi".

Nick Rockefeller told Aaron Russo what the goal is.

P.S. The Ashkenazi Jews have a much higher average IQ of 117, and many elite are Ashkenazi Jews. The says nothing against all Jews however.

Also it is rather incredulous to discount the fact that all the transition to AML, KYC which is enabling this hunt for capital which Martin admits and writes about, was engineered starting with 9/11. And it pretty difficult to discount that 9/11 was not done by 16 guys on camels and was rather engineered by ... (much circumstantial evidence points to Dick Cheney as key cog in the wheel). They evidence that the buildings were not downed with airplanes is overwhelming, even 1000s of architects and engineers have signed a petition saying the government's story is implausible. And this terrorism false flag farce is being used to keep the world locked into a non-default increasing debt trajectory with a hunt for all capital. Precisely what is necessary to drive the world into a severe economic contagion which can usher in a one-world currency type result after destroying the nation-state concept.

I am not sure there is a global conspiracy. And it doesn't really affect my actions nor goals any way. So I don't really care. But I am skeptical of a guy (Armstrong) who says speaks against decentralized cryptocurrencies, speaks for a one-world currency solution (with national or regional currencies floating relative to it), and who speaks against the possibility of the global conspiracy without any proof.

Just because Armstrong is aware of manipulations at the lower-level echelon of the NY bankers club is not proof that the higher echelon doesn't exist. Logic 101 really.


Update: Armstrong writes today about the $2.3 trillion missing from Pentagon accounting and paperwork was conveniently destroyed at the Pentagon on 9/11.
1485  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: [IRS] If Bitcoin is property, then the IRS may have a BIG problem! on: March 27, 2014, 07:23:20 PM
On the recent IRS ruling that BTC is property subject to capital gains on disposal of coins, and that miners must additionally pay income tax on the value of the BTC when mined, someone thinks being outside the USA will help but they are sorely mistaken...

The IRS has gotten it all wrong. All their statement will do is push onshore people to offshore services and companies where they cannot be taxed. I live and work in an offshore country where there are no capital gains taxes and cryptos aren't taxed in any shape or form. I'm already seeing a rise in what can best be described as "offshore crypto farms"...

As a former Treasury official was purported to have said, "we will burn the fingers of the goldbugs up to their armpits". And he also said, "its our dollar and your problem".

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/03/24/the-real-conspiracy-the-imf-tax-agenda/

Quote
Obama is on board fully with the IMF agenda to raise taxes substantially French style. The IMF has been behind the scenes going to every former tax shelter and threatening them to turn over data. They have hit the Caribbean islands right down to Panama. Obama has laced the Ukrainian aid with the IMF Poison Pill. The IMF wants a shit load of money to tear apart the global economy in search of unpaid taxes. The Obama Administration has conspired with the IMF behind closed doors and entirely out of the Congress to pursue this secret agenda. They are on the path to destroy Western Civilization as we know it. This is no joke.


...thus we headed into a crazy period where the governments will try to fund the $150223 trillion global debt bubble [4] by hunting down all private capital (G20 announced a database for this today, NSA will contribute and note this is the bankster business model for them to own everything), then as Bitcoin is taken over top-down then the alternative coin with the above features will take over and become the surviving private sector. For this new virtual economy...


I hope you also understand that FATCHA will compel the nations of the banks in all nations to comply and remember the developing world is short the dollar due to massive bond issues in dollars to the ZIRP carry trade. The USA is still in control of the world as we go into this implosion 2016ish.


My understanding is FATCHA does not require us to declare assets we hold overseas which are not in an "account", i.e. Nestmann said we probably do not need to report bullion that we hold in our homes, yet we would need to report (even allocated) bullion in any overseas account.

Are Bitcoins a private asset or an account? And where do they reside in our possession or in the public ledger? And where does the public ledger reside?

The problem is that governments (IRS in particular) invariably interprets laws in the way that brings them the most income. So I think they can argue (in their Kangaroo rigged courts) that since the public ledger resides in at least one computer overseas, then it is reportable under FATCHA.

Okay so no big deal right? Just report it. Well what about all of you who did not report on time already and held an account that was ever worth more than $10,000? You are already liable for 5X the maximum value of the unreported account in penalties plus 5 years jail time.

And reporting marks us in the IRS computers as "potential tax avoiders". The chance of audit drastically increases.

This is one of those issues that caused me to think it just isn't worth investing in Bitcoin without 100% reliable anonymity.

I am eager for someone to refute my analysis on this.


Disclaimer: consult your own tax attorney, I am not providing tax advice, merely discussing this issue.





Regarding the illuminati fears... superstitious is the end of reason.

Those who confuse superstition with exquisitely researched facts have lost rationality.

For those who think there is no global conspiracy, you are apparently not aware of Anthony Sutton:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSVWXmZB1wc


See below on what the former IRS Commissioner told Aaron Russo when he was making the movie about there being no income tax law in the USA.


Martin Armstrong's position has been there is no proof of a global conspiracy, and he doesn't speculate. That is an acceptable position, except that he continues to assert there is no global conspiracy, which is thus speculation, since he doesn't have any proof to support that assertion. So I urge him to stop being disingenuous and appearing to be a tool of the elite towards a one world currency which he has proposed as a solution to this crisis.

As for proof of a global conspiracy, we got a big chunk of proof from Aaron Russo as follows.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=279650.msg3497509#msg3497509

Quote from: AnonyMint
As a Treasury official said some decade ago about the time he also said, "we will burn the fingers of the goldbugs up to their armpits", it has always been the plan to go after the millionaires and steal back all their gains to the elite (skip to 36:35 min of the linked video) who run the fiat system. And Bitcoin is an amazingly great tracking tool to aid them in this coming global confiscation via taxation of the rich process. Note the elite super rich are always excluded from such gestapos.

Former (Jewish?) IRS Commissioner and the man who wrote much of the tax code law, said to (Jew) Aaron Russo (producer of Bette Midler, The Rose, Trading Places, etc) in Ashkenazi Jewish Yiddish language, "nothing will help you". Skip to the 37 min point in the linked video.

The elite know exactly what they are doing by launching Bitcoin via the fictitious anonymous identity "Satoshi".

Nick Rockefeller told Aaron Russo what the goal is.

P.S. The Ashkenazi Jews have a much higher average IQ of 117, and many elite are Ashkenazi Jews. The says nothing against all Jews however.

Also it is rather incredulous to discount the fact that all the transition to AML, KYC which is enabling this hunt for capital which Martin admits and writes about, was engineered starting with 9/11. And it pretty difficult to discount that 9/11 was not done by 16 guys on camels and was rather engineered by ... (much circumstantial evidence points to Dick Cheney as key cog in the wheel). They evidence that the buildings were not downed with airplanes is overwhelming, even 1000s of architects and engineers have signed a petition saying the government's story is implausible. And this terrorism false flag farce is being used to keep the world locked into a non-default increasing debt trajectory with a hunt for all capital. Precisely what is necessary to drive the world into a severe economic contagion which can usher in a one-world currency type result after destroying the nation-state concept.

I am not sure there is a global conspiracy. And it doesn't really affect my actions nor goals any way. So I don't really care. But I am skeptical of a guy (Armstrong) who says speaks against decentralized cryptocurrencies, speaks for a one-world currency solution (with national or regional currencies floating relative to it), and who speaks against the possibility of the global conspiracy without any proof.

Just because Armstrong is aware of manipulations at the lower-level echelon of the NY bankers club is not proof that the higher echelon doesn't exist. Logic 101 really.


Update: Armstrong writes today about the $2.3 trillion missing from Pentagon accounting and paperwork was conveniently destroyed at the Pentagon on 9/11.
1486  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: "Failure to Understand Bitcoin Could Cost Investors Billions" (Bitcoin's flaws) on: March 27, 2014, 06:44:56 PM
Cross posting an excerpt from an ongoing discussion in another thread...

...

From my discussions with various community members, I think the general feeling is that hashers are paid for the services they provide to a mining pool whereas miners create bitcoins based on their own initiatives and the acceptance of their efforts by their peers.

...

Based on existing laws, I believe miners (but not hashers) are free to recognize gains on any coins they create when a gain is realized, and a court challenge would rule in their favour.


Yes, I agree with this observation. I have legacy coins that I CPU solo-mined back in 2010. I figure my tax basis is essentially zero dollars for these.


I emphatically disagreed as follows and if you don't rush to report, you are just increasing your eventual pain. And thus selling pressure coming now before April 15 filing deadline as miners scramble to sell coins to raise revenues to pay taxes that are due immediately! What ever China news you all are referring to may be incidental.

The coinbase transaction sends you coins from the network, so this must be reported as income.

When you dispose the coins, you must report capital gains (or loss).

I saw my accountant long ago and discussed Bitcoin at length, and our assumptions based on existing law were pretty much exactly in line with this IRS guidance. 

Can you explain to me the logic behind the taxable event of block creation by miners? AFAIK, entities that mine physical gold don't have a taxable event when they pull it from the ground, do they? Isn't the taxable event when they sell the gold?

My rationale is the network of all users paid the coins to you in exchange for you providing a mining service.

Besides I wouldn't risk it on some flimsy interpretation you prefer, because fees and late penalties could be tacked on later. The IRS will always rule for the interpretation that nets them the most tax soonest. Good luck trying to defeat them in tax court.

Btw, I had this interpretation immediately upon learning of Bitcoin. It was obvious to me, well maybe that is because my sister and grandfather were both CPAs, my father is an attorney, and I self-taught myself double-entry cash and accrual accounting and tax accounting (when my sister and grandfather died).



it would mean that mining on P2P pool imposes no reporting requirements on you, whereas mining at a pool like GHash.io does.

Note my point above applies also to mining on a P2P pool. Also I hope you are aware that P2P pools are vulnerable to "share withhholding attack" (don't conflate that with my "transactions withholding attack") which was detailed in a whitepaper by Meni Rosenfeld in 2011 and Meni Rosenfeld's oblivious share fix couldn't be applied to P2P pools:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=339902.msg3715641#msg3715641
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=339902.msg3719385#msg3719385

So for an anonymous coin you can forget P2P pools, because they would surely be attacked by the governments.
1487  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: March 27, 2014, 06:23:07 PM
...

From my discussions with various community members, I think the general feeling is that hashers are paid for the services they provide to a mining pool whereas miners create bitcoins based on their own initiatives and the acceptance of their efforts by their peers.

...

Based on existing laws, I believe miners (but not hashers) are free to recognize gains on any coins they create when a gain is realized, and a court challenge would rule in their favour.


Yes, I agree with this observation. I have legacy coins that I CPU solo-mined back in 2010. I figure my tax basis is essentially zero dollars for these.


I emphatically disagreed as follows and if you don't rush to report, you are just increasing your eventual pain. And thus selling pressure coming now before April 15 filing deadline as miners scramble to sell coins to raise revenues to pay taxes that are due immediately! What ever China news you all are referring to may be incidental.

The coinbase transaction sends you coins from the network, so this must be reported as income.

When you dispose the coins, you must report capital gains (or loss).

I saw my accountant long ago and discussed Bitcoin at length, and our assumptions based on existing law were pretty much exactly in line with this IRS guidance.  

Can you explain to me the logic behind the taxable event of block creation by miners? AFAIK, entities that mine physical gold don't have a taxable event when they pull it from the ground, do they? Isn't the taxable event when they sell the gold?

My rationale is the network of all users paid the coins to you in exchange for you providing a mining service.

Besides I wouldn't risk it on some flimsy interpretation you prefer, because fees and late penalties could be tacked on later. The IRS will always rule for the interpretation that nets them the most tax soonest. Good luck trying to defeat them in tax court.

Btw, I had this interpretation immediately upon learning of Bitcoin. It was obvious to me, well maybe that is because my sister and grandfather were both CPAs, my father is an attorney, and I self-taught myself double-entry cash and accrual accounting and tax accounting (when my sister and grandfather died).



it would mean that mining on P2P pool imposes no reporting requirements on you, whereas mining at a pool like GHash.io does.

Note my point above applies also to mining on a P2P pool. Also I hope you are aware that P2P pools are vulnerable to "share withhholding attack" (don't conflate that with my "transactions withholding attack") which was detailed in a whitepaper by Meni Rosenfeld in 2011 and Meni Rosenfeld's oblivious share fix couldn't be applied to P2P pools:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=339902.msg3715641#msg3715641
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=339902.msg3719385#msg3719385

So for an anonymous coin you can forget P2P pools, because they would surely be attacked by the governments.
1488  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: March 27, 2014, 04:20:29 PM
P.S.S. I predicted a couple of weeks ago the IRS ruling would be what it is and that it would cause the price to dive. The post is some where in my public archives on bitcointalk.
1489  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: "Failure to Understand Bitcoin Could Cost Investors Billions" (Bitcoin's flaws) on: March 27, 2014, 04:18:30 PM
Cross posting an excerpt from an ongoing discussion in another thread...

1. I generally disagree with this one. Never in the history of mankind has the average Joe won in mass, IMHO. Somehow I don't believe it will magically happen now that Bitcoin is around.

Bitcoin is a technology. Most every time the benefits of a new technology, properly applied, have benefited the average Joe sooner or later.

Risto it appears you excel on "counting" games, but when it comes to logic it appears you over generalize (or choose the simplest understanding for efficiency) and this causes you to make mistakes. I suck at board games but I appear to excel at seeing all the conceptual issues in full range of depth and extracting the generative essence. Our brains appear to be wired differently. That appears to make you better at finding arbitrage opportunities than me (but gives you no advantage in timing market moves), but my skill appears to make me a superior visionary than you. I don't excel mentally with anything that requires me to interact with my external sensors. I excel with short I/O tape and then let my mind run on it, although normally my reading comprehension is very high but don't expect me to interact in parallelized real-time with my I/O i.e. that game you mentioned upthread (I tried while getting sleepy and only managed 16000 after several tries perhaps I would do better if I put some thought into how I should be calculating the move probabilities on that grid, but it appears to come naturally to you?).

I had the following insight before, but no one prompted me to share it. It is difficult for me to keep track of all my ideas.

Contemplate that the technologies which benefit the masses are those which have individual scope; whereas, those which subject the masses to greater extortion via the collective have collective scope. For example, washing machines have only individual scope and were rapidly (logistically) adopted across the breadth of the developed world. Whereas, nuclear power and nuclear weapons can't be individualized and have further enslaved us in the collective.

The internet (networking in general) is a mix of individual empowerment and collective enslavement.

What does anonymity do in theory? In theory it makes it possible to have all the individual empower without any (most) of the collective enslavement.

This is why I am so obsessed with making sure we have anonymity, not just in our money but in every aspect of the internet. The technology I am working on is not only applicable to crypto-currency. I want to change the entire internet to make it asymmetrically more of an individual empowerment.

Throughout history we had anonymity in our money because it was physical. Now Bitcoin comes along with a fully traceable public ledger and we give up asymmetric power to the collective. This alarmed the shit out of me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I said to myself a year ago, "hell no! not if I can do anything about it".

In geek speak, "you just don't get it".

The other asymmetric problem specific to Bitcoin is it uses ASICs thus mining is in the hands of the few, and also there is nothing in the design which economically discourages large pools thus one pool now controls more than 50% of the hash rate. Bitcoin has already fallen and can NEVER be a benefit to the individual. Sorry! Just wishing it to be not so is foolish. I don't have a vendetta against crypto-currency, rather I am logically analyzing the situation. And attempting to fix it. I was frankly initially shocked that you were so dismissive and uninterested (and others even attacked me for wanting to improve the situation), but then I realized it is because you guys don't think on a deep level as I do or you are blinded by your speculative fever and vested interests as owners of Bitcoins. And thus you walk right into the honey pot so designed to trap you. (And there are both technical and political reasons improvements to these issues can NEVER be back ported into Bitcoin. Sorry!)

P.S. the other fundamental driver of asymmetric power of the collective on the internet is the client-server model instead of P2P.

It is a fact that a physical multifurcating network is more efficient than a fully connected mesh topology, i.e. running a smaller pipe from the water district to each house increases the cost and back pressure than running a main line and then multifurcating branches off it (cross-sectional area reduces by the square of the proportional diameter decreases). However, the transfer of data on the internet does not obey that physical law because we don't charge for data according to the path it takes. However the challenge is the efficient, redundant DHT storage and serve of data for a purely P2P internet. That is a more difficult technical hurdle.

P.S.S. I predicted a couple of weeks ago the IRS ruling would be what it is and that it would cause the price to dive. The post is some where in my public archives on bitcointalk.
1490  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: March 27, 2014, 03:27:07 PM
After some sleep my legarthy has morphed into a slight migraine. Ah the wonders of neuropathy and auto-immunity.  Angry  Apologies creekbore now I realize you meant you are hoping the NWO if it comes will be after you are old and dead, not that a NWO would force you to choose to be plant food. The NWO is rapidly crystallizing within our lifetime.

1. I generally disagree with this one. Never in the history of mankind has the average Joe won in mass, IMHO. Somehow I don't believe it will magically happen now that Bitcoin is around.

Bitcoin is a technology. Most every time the benefits of a new technology, properly applied, have benefited the average Joe sooner or later.

Risto it appears you excel on "counting" games, but when it comes to logic it appears you over generalize (or choose the simplest understanding for efficiency) and this causes you to make mistakes. I suck at board games but I appear to excel at seeing all the conceptual issues in full range of depth and extracting the generative essence. Our brains appear to be wired differently. That appears to make you better at finding arbitrage opportunities than me (but gives you no advantage in timing market moves), but my skill appears to make me a superior visionary than you. I don't excel mentally with anything that requires me to interact with my external sensors. I excel with short I/O tape and then let my mind run on it, although normally my reading comprehension is very high but don't expect me to interact in parallelized real-time with my I/O i.e. that game you mentioned upthread (I tried while getting sleepy and only managed 16000 after several tries perhaps I would do better if I put some thought into how I should be calculating the move probabilities on that grid, but it appears to come naturally to you?).

I had the following insight before, but no one prompted me to share it. It is difficult for me to keep track of all my ideas.

Contemplate that the technologies which benefit the masses are those which have individual scope; whereas, those which subject the masses to greater extortion via the collective have collective scope. For example, washing machines have only individual scope and were rapidly (logistically) adopted across the breadth of the developed world. Whereas, nuclear power and nuclear weapons can't be individualized and have further enslaved us in the collective.

The internet (networking in general) is a mix of individual empowerment and collective enslavement.

What does anonymity do in theory? In theory it makes it possible to have all the individual empower without any (most) of the collective enslavement.

This is why I am so obsessed with making sure we have anonymity, not just in our money but in every aspect of the internet. The technology I am working on is not only applicable to crypto-currency. I want to change the entire internet to make it asymmetrically more of an individual empowerment.

Throughout history we had anonymity in our money because it was physical. Now Bitcoin comes along with a fully traceable public ledger and we give up asymmetric power to the collective. This alarmed the shit out of me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I said to myself a year ago, "hell no! not if I can do anything about it".

In geek speak, "you just don't get it".

The other asymmetric problem specific to Bitcoin is it uses ASICs thus mining is in the hands of the few, and also there is nothing in the design which economically discourages large pools thus one pool now controls more than 50% of the hash rate. Bitcoin has already fallen and can NEVER be a benefit to the individual. Sorry! Just wishing it to be not so is foolish. I don't have a vendetta against crypto-currency, rather I am logically analyzing the situation. And attempting to fix it. I was frankly initially shocked that you were so dismissive and uninterested (and others even attacked me for wanting to improve the situation), but then I realized it is because you guys don't think on a deep level as I do or you are blinded by your speculative fever and vested interests as owners of Bitcoins. And thus you walk right into the honey pot so designed to trap you. (And there are both technical and political reasons improvements to these issues can NEVER be back ported into Bitcoin. Sorry!)

P.S. the other fundamental driver of asymmetric power of the collective on the internet is the client-server model instead of P2P.

It is a fact that a physical multifurcating network is more efficient than a fully connected mesh topology, i.e. running a smaller pipe from the water district to each house increases the cost and back pressure than running a main line and then multifurcating branches off it (cross-sectional area reduces by the square of the proportional diameter decreases). However, the transfer of data on the internet does not obey that physical law because we don't charge for data according to the path it takes. However the challenge is the efficient, redundant DHT storage and serve of data for a purely P2P internet. That is a more difficult technical hurdle.
1491  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: March 27, 2014, 07:01:30 AM
creekbore thanks for articulating what I would but can't at the moment.

Just want to add that I don't want you relegated to plant food. My intention is create a 3rd option, where we opt-out without needing the masses to opt-out. If we successfully opt out, then we prosper while their system dies, otherwise we die with it. I am working diligently on this technology, which is why I am lacking sleep. I believe there is a large and growing number of us who understand well enough. And once we are shown the light in detail, it will become much more clear.

Unfortunately I see Bitcoin is opting in because most users are and it doesn't have the technological mechanisms to allow partial opt-out.

I agree with everyone and Peter R that we are in an unstoppable movement, but what we need isn't yet on the market. Bitcoin isn't going to just magically reverse and become less centralized. It is already centralized. One pool just crossed the 50% threshold of the hash power. Actually due to selfish mining, one only needs 25% of the hash rate to take control. I added some links to my post on the prior page. Someone actually has to create the technology to make that centralization impossible. Just wishing it to be so won't accomplish anything.
1492  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: IRS LAW: Let's Move onto Another Cryptocurrency on: March 27, 2014, 05:17:41 AM

Taxation of darkcoin when you use it with a merchant would be exactly the same and there may be that reporting thing of over 600 USD from the part of the merchant (that apparently might not be yet the case for any crypto judging from some posts).

Regarding anonymity Darkcoin uses a sort of Coinjoin technology on a public ledger. Unless it grows bigger than Bitcoin, your anonymity there will actually be substantial less than with Bitcoin.
 

I don't think the issue you are worried about is solvable with an alt-coin... maybe with wallet technology or third party services if you want to be fully compliant for all types of commerce and transaction sizes in the US. Or by changing the system... Bitcoin did not start without any hint of political intent. Just take look at the genesis block.




These things I think will make a cryptocoin fully anonymous

1) No public ledger
2) Totally anonymous exchange that would be on TOR and only accessible on TOR, where they can't/don't take hold of your Ip address, or personal information etc etc(also the exchange would have to be located outside the U.S.A or other countries regulating bitcoin, or just make it decentralized..)
3) the wallet itself should be synced with TOR or some IP masking offline proxy or something, making it Fully anonymous.

Those three things, no public ledger, exchange only on TOR, and the wallet being synced with TOR, I think would make the coin Completely anonymous and unable to track. Even if it is tracked by the IRS, the lack of explanation to say where the coins came from, would make filing taxes A LOT easier than having to list every bitcoin you recieved on your taxes..hope it helps a coin dev out there. Thanks.

Tor and VPNs are honey pots.

There must be a public ledger else you don't have a decentralized crypto-currency.

It is possible to solve this with an altcoin. Are you interested in such an altcoin?
1493  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: March 27, 2014, 05:03:28 AM
Peter R no offense please, but I think this post is illogical, but I can't articulate until after I get some sleep.

I will make what I consider to be pessimistic assumptions:  (1) No growth in GDP globally, ever.  (2) 5% chance of bitcoin evolving to replace fiat currency and gold.  (3) 20 year horizon for the replacement.  (4) 8% discounting rate, 5.5% USD inflation.  In that case there is a 5% chance that the net present value of a bitcoin spent 20 years from today is some number north of 500k.  On those assumptions, a fair present price for a single bitcoin would be at least 25k.  Bitcoin appears to be undervalued by a factor on ther order of 100x.

Since bitcoin is undervalued (for the reasons you point out), its price and user-base will continue to grow.  The probability that it succeeds increases with a growing user-base (all other variables held constant) such that your net present-value calculation remains greater than its present trading value.  The dynamics of bitcoin growth represent an unstable feedback system with only two equilibrium points: becoming the dominant global currency, becoming nothing at all.  

The only way I can imagine the bitcoin network would stop growing (over the long term) would be for it to become no longer useful.  It would be no longer useful if secp256k1/sha256 was quickly broken, if the network was constantly under relentless 51% and Sybil attacks, if efficient and coordinated government action made it extremely onerous to use, or if a much better idea came around.    

i also think you can wait quite a long time before the entire monetary system collapses and get replaced by anything. banksters and politics just wont let that happen. And if it happens, i'd be far less worry about BTC because of the chaos and madness it should generate.

I disagree.  

I think we could transition from fiat to bitcoin reasonably peacefully and quickly.  The important thing is that bitcoin can still facilitate the global trade required to provide a constant flow of goods and energy into the major cities (unlike a sudden transition to a gold standard).  As long as global trade doesn't quickly break down, reasonable social order will be maintained.  

Most people will benefit from the "collapse" and will work to make it happen.

1.  The Average Joe will win.  He will be jealous of his friend who had the foresight to purchase coins at $10,000 / BTC, but he will see that a transition to bitcoin represents a jubilee for his unmanageable debt load.

2.  The already rich will win.  They will retain ownership of the productive capital they already control.  The will also read the writing on the wall before average Joe and possibly amplify their financial assets too.  

3.  The already politically-powerful will win.  Why fight to destroy bitcoin when you can stealthily work to make it grow and increase your independent power and wealth?

4.  Established institutions like the IRS, Fed, NSA, IMF will lose.  However, many of the talented individuals currently working in such institutions will win by hastening their demise and exploiting their insider knowledge.  

5.  People reliant on government entitlement spending for lavish pensions will lose, but hopefully their kids were bitcoiners!

A few billionaires will be demoted to 100 millionaires, and a few (some from the forum no doubt) will take their place.  But otherwise, the social mobility will be a lot less than what people imagine.  

It's only money after all.  
1494  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: March 27, 2014, 04:38:08 AM
I better sleep, I can't even read as I am slipping in and out of coherence.

To simplify...


I agree on potential of the crypto-currency ecosystem and I wrote recently I am grateful Bitcoin provided this large ecosystem. To bootstrap you produce something that people will virally clamor for.

I don't disagree with BTC as an investment for over "next year". I believe there is very good chance of Bitcoin going to $10,000. My concern is after that.

Bitcoin serves no need for the masses. What does it improve for them? Nothing.

Bitcoin is for us because we think it will end the corruption of fiat. But the reality is Bitcoin (itself, not the potential of the ecosystem) is already failing to do that, as it is highly centralized.

How is it easy to anonymize wealth? Please tell me so I can protect myself. I really want to hear this, because I thought I knew everything about this.

I have a post in the Dark Enlightenment thread where I listed Armstrong's record on predictions. It is quite amazing. He predicted the 87' crash to the day. He predicted 9/11. He predicted the recent fall in gold. Etc.. Any way, he hasn't said 2016 will be the most chaotic year. His model says Sept 2015 is when the USA peaks on this current bounce.

What if counter parties default on the LEAPs.

There won't be any hyperinflation. Zero chance. Never happened in the history of the world that the reserve currency hyperinflated. Rome had a brief hyperinflation of silver which is just a blip on the 500 year chart. Rome fell into deflation.

Agreed nothing will stop the coming confiscations. Doesn't that mean we really need anonymous money?

My brain is probably already severely damaged from neuropathy, lack of sleep, etc.. Thanks for the concern.
1495  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: March 27, 2014, 03:29:15 AM
I was just preparing to reply to your upthread post about Metcalf's law.

I referred to Reed's Law at my copute.com since 2010 so I was aware of that.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reed%27s_law

However, the point I am making is those might just be mostly transactions involving our speculation on BTC, and thus we are pumping the price up expecting it to be used for real commerce, when our speculation transactions might be the commerce.

How do we know that isn't the case?

I keep trying to find the real commerce with Bitcoin.

There is Overstock and TigerDirect:

http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/231134

Those retailers appear to be targeting the while male geek demographic investors of BTC. I am reminded of this:

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/11/bitcoin-is-the-segway-of-currency/281625/ (Bitcoin Is the Segway of Currency)

DigitalRiver added Bitcoin as an option for download software merchants who want to add it. But that isn't saying too much because I tried 900# payments, e-checks, etc when I was selling download software. Those didn't go mainstream.

For something to be a currency then it needs to be accepted by many different types of merchants. A few dozens of merchants targeting us white males who are invested and want to spend using BTC to show support for our investment isn't necessarily going to the critical mass needed.


Hey I would be all in favor of a crypto-currency even if it had limited adoption. But to have utility to me, I would need to be confident that the government can't just shut it down at-will by regulating the exchanges. Otherwise what is the point?

You all are rather betting big. You require that Bitcoin changes the world in 2 years. Your extrapolations are that severe.



Add: let me put it another way. I believe you showed meaningfully that Bitcoin is obeying Metcalf's Law, and my point is this can serve as a honey pot. It doesn't mean we are actually building a platform for all of society. The growth doesn't necessarily have to continue past saturation of our demographic.

We need some evidence of adoption outside our demographic. And for me, I would demand evidence that it is not trending to be offchain and thus just another fiat any way. All the signs are overly centralized: the few pools, tiny % of population that owns the ASICs, the Coinbase and Mt.Gox, the Bitpay, the localbitcoins. Few big names. Centralization.

http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/a/12992
http://www.coindesk.com/directpool-prevent-51attack-community-approach/
http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-miners-ditch-ghash-io-pool-51-attack/

My assumption is government won't allow it unless it trends to offchain. If it becomes offchain or at least controlled at the entry and exit gate (exchanges), then I don't believe the government will allow you to take large gains out. For those who think they too large gains out and bought an old manor, I have one word:

clawback
1496  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: March 27, 2014, 02:34:32 AM
... Still, I do wonder what you really think about the adoption rate of bitcoin since it seems like you are contradicting yourself at times. Stating things like bitcoin will become the elites new monetary system for global surveillance of all transactions, bitcoin is perhaps the mark of the beast, Satoshi Nakamoto was the US government etc. Those type of comments don't scale well when assuming bitcoin is only a geek phenomenon for white males bellow 50.

I wrote upthread that if Bitcoin doesn't morph into an offchain currency with all the conveniences provided for the masses, then it appears to be limited to the white male demographic. So that would limit the upside price to much less than the projections of $100,000+. If it morphs, then it can become those other things. Two scenarios.

Perhaps you are having a hard time estimating the adoption rate in which I understand since it's basically what we are all discussing here. A continued exponential increase in bitcoin users will automatically lead to price increases (even if some exchanges start utilizing fractional reserve banking, which probably already has happened by the way). Will the exponential increase continue? I think so and have not seen anything that shows otherwise as of yet.

My premise is western civilization is collapsing, and the governments will lock down every exchange.

For example after 2016, they can declare capital controls, and they can require the exchanges to only let you take say $300 per day out.

So then what happens to price...

There is no way you attack the government out in the open and win, unless the win benefits the masses. But the masses are against you because they have no capital and for Bitcoin to take over the world, you want them to agree to be destitute. They will never agree.

INstead they will demand the government make everything fair.

The only way to win is with decentralized exchanges and anonymity. We don't have that in Bitcoin, so you can kiss you capital good bye.

That is my firm opinion of what the world looks like after 2015.

Everyone is entitled to ignore history and ignore the $273 trillion global debt, $quadrillion of derivatives and $quadrillion of unfunded government social welfare promises.

The chaos is coming...

If Bitcoin was technologically capable of withstanding what is coming, I would be more stoic about it.



Bitcoin appears to hand to the government in a gifted wrapped package all those idealistic white males who are a threat to totalitarianism. It is the perfect honey pot. And you guys are attracted to like flies on honey.

An intoxicating mix of "we will become billionaires for doing nothing but sitting on our ass" and "we are defeating evil and making a better world".

That honey is so sweet, and then the trapdoor will close after you enter.


Not to disagree, but to discuss (see comments in text and below).
I found some very strange statistics: apparently, average number of transactions barely budged in the last 12 mo (to my eye it looks like 10-15% growth max).
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?timespan=1year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
If bitcoin is growing in utility-why transactions are barely growing?

Number of transactions is not important.  Number of participants and total value transferred are important.  (Mid-2013 dust transactions < 5430 satoshi were effectively stopped.)  For a useful transaction value, multiply estimated transaction volume by BTCUSD rate, adjusted for USD inflation.


Excuse my prose I haven't slept and am delirious .

Just want to point that how do we know if that isn't mostly investment flow in and out of speculation on BTC's price?  I don't consider that to be commerce, rather just the BTC speculation bubble itself.

Bitcoin tx data is basically useless as a metric because it costs near 0 to send a tx. If there is no cost to something, then it can done with repetition, e.g. Coinbase has a feature to send BTC to friend in email and you can send any tiny amount you want.

Or mixers to send BTC to yourself over and over and over and over again.
1497  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Bitcoin environment seems toxic right now... has it felt like this before? on: March 26, 2014, 10:24:21 PM
Quote:


"White is a factor because browner people are too busy enjoying the outdoor and natural life. The white males are stuck inside with winter and find indoor male hobbies. Females in general aren't going to adopt anything that is not super easy, not threatening, available in pink, and lovingly accepted by their peers."

"First of all Bitcoin (as it currently stands unless morphed as I say above) will be limited to reasonably affluent, white males mostly under age 50. Thus figure the upper limit of adoption is several hundred million. Note NE Asians are white."

Anonymint. If you want to break out of the rather small racial / misogynistic  bubble

My knowledge is based on wide-range of real world experiences and having actually lived in the third world for nearly 2 decades.

I grew up in all black inner city slums in New Orleans and Baton Rouge, and my mother and stepfather were very liberal. And I grew up believing that women and men are equal.

Later on life taught me the truth the hard way.

A racist or misogynist is someone who discriminates illogically against race or gender. Rather I am forming rational conclusions by employing falsifiable tests. This is known as the scientific method.

you are opining from you could research what Mpesa (Kenya based, with hundreds of millions of Africans as a customer base, skin color other-than-white) is doing with bitcoin. Implementation being lead by a young woman who spends more time with African bankers than barbies.

Or not. Your choice.

Someone mentioned tersely "1 in 3 Kenyans use Bitcoin" in another thread 2 days ago, and two of us requested a citation and the poster did not reply, so I didn't google it. That was the first time I'd heard that claim. Your post incited me to dig:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2013/05/economist-explains-18

Quote
Dozens of mobile-money systems have been launched, so why has Kenya’s been the most successful? It had several factors in its favour, including the exceptionally high cost of sending money by other methods; the dominant market position of Safaricom; the regulator's initial decision to allow the scheme to proceed on an experimental basis, without formal approval; a clear and effective marketing campaign (“Send money home”); an efficient system to move cash around behind the scenes; and, most intriguingly, the post-election violence in the country in early 2008. M-PESA was used to transfer money to people trapped in Nairobi's slums at the time, and some Kenyans regarded M-PESA as a safer place to store their money than the banks, which were entangled in ethnic disputes. Having established a base of initial users, M-PESA then benefitted from network effects: the more people who used it, the more it made sense for others to sign up for it.

So now I see why it succeeded there but failed here in the Philippines. We have SmartMoney and Globe Cash here but it is not widely used. Filipinos prefer cash, even though they are SMS capital of the world and top 3 country in the world for using digital media. There are also vendors here every where for loading your cell phone prepaid balance.

But there isn't a big incentive to move away from cash. Cash works and when you need to send cash money, there are peso padala branches on every other block.

Whereas in Kenya the chaos meant they didn't have these well developed cash markets, so they needed something. And this monopoly by one phone carrier made it possible to get the economies-of-scale whereas we have 3 main phone carriers here.


But whoever says Kenyans are using Bitcoin is smoking dope:

http://www.bankinnovation.net/2014/02/mpesa-is-smoking-bitcoin-in-number-of-transactions/

In spite of the correction to the chart on that page, Bitcoin transactions are not a significant percentage of M-PESA transactions. That is global Bitcoin txs shown in comparison and besides upt 59% of BTC txs were SatoshiDice at some point in the past and many txs are mixers, etc.. Lets try to find some hard data on BTX txs in Kenya? Scientific method.

You fundamentally don't understand relative wealth. This is not a mistake I would expect rpietila to make:

http://www.cgap.org/blog/10-things-you-thought-you-knew-about-m-pesa

Quote
4 – You thought M-PESA’s success meant it is now a huge systemic risk The accumulated balance of all the M-PESA accounts represents just 0.2% of bank deposits by value. M-PESA is far from exerting a systemic risk. In June 2010, M-PESA transactions amounted to about 70% of the volume of electronic transactions in the country but were only 2.3% in value. M-PESA’s success means there is a real need for small electronic transactions and storage of value. It was designed with limits on how much can be transacted (no more than 70,000Ksh leaving the account daily) and stored (maximum account balance is 50,000Ksh). Cash-in, cash-out and P2P transfers are limited to 35,000Ksh per transaction.


So again, I stand by my original statement. Only the white boys have a need for the illogical 10 minute transaction system called Bitcoin.

Still feeling smug white boy?
1498  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Bitcoin environment seems toxic right now... has it felt like this before? on: March 26, 2014, 10:22:06 PM
For me, coding is most fun when at the end of the day I have less lines of code than at the beginning of the day.

A lot of people don't understand that.  

That is why I use Scala when I can. Much more concise, because I can express higher-kinded category theory polymorphisms (JustSaying is me). As far as I know, higher-kinded typing is only supported by Scala, Haskell, and ML. You may not realize that Haskell doesn't have subtyping, it is faked. ML is very powerful but very obtuse.

But when you are writing something new, then LOC production is a positive metric.
1499  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: March 26, 2014, 10:06:14 PM
Quote:


"White is a factor because browner people are too busy enjoying the outdoor and natural life. The white males are stuck inside with winter and find indoor male hobbies. Females in general aren't going to adopt anything that is not super easy, not threatening, available in pink, and lovingly accepted by their peers."

"First of all Bitcoin (as it currently stands unless morphed as I say above) will be limited to reasonably affluent, white males mostly under age 50. Thus figure the upper limit of adoption is several hundred million. Note NE Asians are white."

Anonymint. If you want to break out of the rather small racial / misogynistic  bubble

My knowledge is based on wide-range of real world experiences and having actually lived in the third world for nearly 2 decades.

I grew up in all black inner city slums in New Orleans and Baton Rouge, and my mother and stepfather were very liberal. And I grew up believing that women and men are equal.

Later on life taught me the truth the hard way.

A racist or misogynist is someone who discriminates illogically against race or gender. Rather I am forming rational conclusions by employing falsifiable tests. This is known as the scientific method.

you are opining from you could research what Mpesa (Kenya based, with hundreds of millions of Africans as a customer base, skin color other-than-white) is doing with bitcoin. Implementation being lead by a young woman who spends more time with African bankers than barbies.

Or not. Your choice.

Someone mentioned tersely "1 in 3 Kenyans use Bitcoin" in another thread 2 days ago, and two of us requested a citation and the poster did not reply, so I didn't google it. That was the first time I'd heard that claim. Your post incited me to dig:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2013/05/economist-explains-18

Quote
Dozens of mobile-money systems have been launched, so why has Kenya’s been the most successful? It had several factors in its favour, including the exceptionally high cost of sending money by other methods; the dominant market position of Safaricom; the regulator's initial decision to allow the scheme to proceed on an experimental basis, without formal approval; a clear and effective marketing campaign (“Send money home”); an efficient system to move cash around behind the scenes; and, most intriguingly, the post-election violence in the country in early 2008. M-PESA was used to transfer money to people trapped in Nairobi's slums at the time, and some Kenyans regarded M-PESA as a safer place to store their money than the banks, which were entangled in ethnic disputes. Having established a base of initial users, M-PESA then benefitted from network effects: the more people who used it, the more it made sense for others to sign up for it.

So now I see why it succeeded there but failed here in the Philippines. We have SmartMoney and Globe Cash here but it is not widely used. Filipinos prefer cash, even though they are SMS capital of the world and top 3 country in the world for using digital media. There are also vendors here every where for loading your cell phone prepaid balance.

But there isn't a big incentive to move away from cash. Cash works and when you need to send cash money, there are peso padala branches on every other block.

Whereas in Kenya the chaos meant they didn't have these well developed cash markets, so they needed something. And this monopoly by one phone carrier made it possible to get the economies-of-scale whereas we have 3 main phone carriers here.


But whoever says Kenyans are using Bitcoin is smoking dope:

http://www.bankinnovation.net/2014/02/mpesa-is-smoking-bitcoin-in-number-of-transactions/

In spite of the correction to the chart on that page, Bitcoin transactions are not a significant percentage of M-PESA transactions. That is global Bitcoin txs shown in comparison and besides upt 59% of BTC txs were SatoshiDice at some point in the past and many txs are mixers, etc.. Lets try to find some hard data on BTX txs in Kenya? Scientific method.

You fundamentally don't understand relative wealth. This is not a mistake I would expect rpietila to make:

http://www.cgap.org/blog/10-things-you-thought-you-knew-about-m-pesa

Quote
4 – You thought M-PESA’s success meant it is now a huge systemic risk The accumulated balance of all the M-PESA accounts represents just 0.2% of bank deposits by value. M-PESA is far from exerting a systemic risk. In June 2010, M-PESA transactions amounted to about 70% of the volume of electronic transactions in the country but were only 2.3% in value. M-PESA’s success means there is a real need for small electronic transactions and storage of value. It was designed with limits on how much can be transacted (no more than 70,000Ksh leaving the account daily) and stored (maximum account balance is 50,000Ksh). Cash-in, cash-out and P2P transfers are limited to 35,000Ksh per transaction.


So again, I stand by my original statement. Only the white boys have a need for the illogical 10 minute transaction system called Bitcoin.

Still feeling smug white boy?
1500  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: It is now next to impossible to spend bitcoins legally if your american on: March 26, 2014, 09:39:41 PM
I have a anonymous address.  The IRS has no way to know what im doing with my btc.
Bingo. Smart crypto players keep a small percentage of their crypto wealth in a public (government visible) account, such as Coinbase, and the other 90-95% of their wealth in an anonymous blockchain address.

It is very unlikely they were successful at remaining anonymous from the NSA+GCHQ. However, they wouldn't know it. Later they will find out they were not anonymous when the handcuffs are applied to their wrists.

Tor, mixers, VPNs are honey pots.
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