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14961  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Visualizing the Bitcoin ETF from Gold ETF history on: July 23, 2018, 05:21:15 PM
You "may" be right. You "may" be wrong. The creator is definitely expecting it and I hope it will be.

I think the infographic does not care about your perfect calculation. TA was never correct in bitcoin. All Technical Analysis (Including your perfect math) failed to foretell. One thing I will tell u is that:

EFT is not even announced nor it can be approved or not nobody knows. Do you? But the BTC price is pumping. The infographic is not showing from what bitcoin price the ETF will start. It could be $9k or 14k. Gold started from $10.8k  in years. Bitcoin reached that ATH is split of months. As per this infographic, the ETF should start from $13.7k. Look and pay close attention to the ETF line where the creator is captioning attention to. He is f## too cool to be that optimistic.

Anyway, great job to the creator and his passion for Crypto. I will congratulate you later if we reach $62+k. If not, no worries, we will cross it anyhow.

Keep it up What's on Crypto!

the creator was doing a comparison.. he even pointed out numbers and points of interest.. he used those points to then point to some prediction point..

if you are to say that the info graphic should just have a random squiggle and then have some random number of no bases at all.. guess what.. its then not a "infographic"

so i was just pointing out the point the infographic was trying to make was not making a point. because it missed the point by not using the points.

whats the point in making a point using points if its then pointed out that those points dont infact reach the same point.. do you see my point.

emphasis on point
14962  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Visualizing the Bitcoin ETF from Gold ETF history on: July 23, 2018, 02:46:00 PM
infographic is not thought out well

firstly. golds preETF ATH was $24k  ATL 10k    post ETF ATH $60k  (rounded)
pre-ATH to post-ATH = 225%
ATL to post-ATH =600%

so lets take bitcoins $20k ATH X225% =$45k next ATH... not $62k
so lets use bitcoins $7500.. x 600% = $45k... not 62k


so just based on numbers.. the estimates should be for  bitcoin ~$45k not $62k.. math is simple

then what needs to be taken into account is that gold had a gold rush of "gold for cash" retailers/services.. which pushed prices. unless bitcoin is going to have loads of ATM's  of taking in bitcoin to then publish an increase in 'spot' price..  you wont see the same inpact.
gold has a more complicated multilayer mechanism of what impacts golds prices.. but unless bitcoin had th same access and more aggressive middlemen control of the spread to push the price up.. we wont see the same pattern

the info graphic did not convey any understanding on the aspects of what caused golds surge post 2003
and yet the info graphic STUPIDLY over hyped the impact of an ETF on bitcoin to somthing far more than ETF affect on gold
14963  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Big warning to crypto community on astroturfing hype on: July 23, 2018, 01:10:56 PM
there are bots.

there have been many posts been reporting because they are simply copy and paste comments from either other posts of the topic or information copied straight from a google search.

the merit system seemed to have quietened down the one line spammers who just want to get post counts on their dozens of alternate-accounts but now you see these alt accounts just copying info from wiki/google, without even bothering to re-interpretting the words into their own words.

solutions:
if you see comments that look like a copy and paste job. which some deem as plagiarism report it
if you are an advertiser wanting users to advertise your service.
      be more active in vetting who you let advertise. make it harder to qualify.
      check their post history better
      dont be afraid to say no to obvious spammers, plagiarists. then those who make bots with dozens of accounts realise they have to change

i think that the forum should go back to multi tiered. where beginners are stuck in a beginners section until they have reached a certain level.
and have another level ontop of the general area. where by those with higher standing/longevity/content can discuss things without the nonsense of newbies that have come straight from reddit with biased mindsets and looking to make money via spamming/copying content
14964  Other / Serious discussion / Re: Does modern civilization is currently progressing or declining? on: July 22, 2018, 06:35:22 PM
going back a few millenia.. people followed kings and barons.. back then they knew about evolution of caveman to human
the story of adam and eve was a meander of explaining how the thyroid gland (apple shaped gland in the neck) which we call the adams apple makes the differeince between a cretin(dumb passive-aggressive entity with physical deformaties) to become civilised problem solving smart healthier entity..

move forward a couple millenia..
people follow kings and government. but know less about evolution. some think we are born from energy of the universe or made from devine beings made in our image.. even hitler had his armies re educating the world about the function of the thyroid gland with all his experiments. even now people dont realise the flouride, chloride, bromide impact the thyroid gland and happily accept poisoning ourselves with flouride water and chlorinatd chicken ecause our kings and governments say its good for us.

as for relationships
(note: i love sex and would never had held out till after marriage, and im agnostic. but im well researched )
100 years ago many people waited to have sex after marriage or 'courted' for months before getting laid. now with tinder and other dating apps,its all one night stands and aids,crabs, and lots of different fluid excretions due to it. so again we have took a step backwards in terms of being civilised.
aids, one night stands, STI's, children of single parents(bastards) has gone full circle. again millenia ago they knew about aids, gays, random sex, deadbeat dads and made laws(the bible is just a lawbook/campfires stories to teach the uneducated in a way they could understand about evolution) which meant to have originally taught people of evolution and having safe sex, but ended up lost in transation where its now thought as a religion where the stories have and will continue to change


things like street lights. did you know the first street light was invented in the middle east a millenia ago.. but that same regions is now left as rubble and treated like cave dwelling savages(if you watch fox news(note sarcasm))

if you think we are free from the kings and barons taxes and higway robberies..we are not.
taxes still continue. and border police very often seize funds for no reason than it being over $10k. or fine people just for parking on what amounts to be nothing more then a yellow line paintd on the edge of a road.

technology
even as far back as cavemen. we have always been looking to make tools to make our lives easier, faster, more efficient, to then be more lazy. so yes although technology moves forwards civilisation and the pursuit to find tools to do things for us has not changed so we have not even after thousands of millenia got to a point where everything is provided for us and we need nothing more.

in finance
in crypto, the new kings are the developers. setting the rules making changes mandatory or soft trojan without civilised conensus. and the barons(tax collectors) are the pools and offchain hubs. we foolishly belive our king developers that this new technology of independant PUSH payments cant work and the next generation of tech is to go back to lockng value into vaults and then just passing around unconfirmed unaudited receipts where there is a requirement of other people signing accepting alongside us.
so finaance is just full circling /unchanged. even though the medium has changed. then end result has just gone full circle

summary.
yes the method has changed over the millenia. but civilisation is still the same. it just goes in circles we learn something. go along with it for a few generations, the next generation get bored/revolt/want soemthing new. a new method is tried, the old method is forgotten or twisted into 'tales' /stories where the message is mis-translated. another generation passes and get bored, changes. and eventually the underlying path goes back to the first path.. a cycle that just goes around repeating and repeating.
14965  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How can we bitcoin transaction refundable? on: July 21, 2018, 09:51:10 PM
its a big issue i have with bitcoin. no charge backs makes it easy for you to get scammed and the scammer gets away scott free.

its an issue i have with creditcards/paypal.. ALLOWING chargebacks.. a customer gets the goods and gets their money back, because its then easy to chargeback scam a seller to get goods and run off with the money aswell scott free
14966  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Why do we talk about Laszlos pizza but not the 1000 BTC poker tournament ? on: July 21, 2018, 09:02:29 PM
because people treated it like a "bottletop" game,,
like hal accepting the first ever tx from satoshi..
 after hal-satoshi tx .. no tx/games/bottletop swaps seemed as important..

but then.. a real deal for real pizza .. that reset the bar to a higher milestone of importance than hals tx from satoshi

after all, you remember your first love/sexual experience.. but after a few meaningless bodily fluid exchanges.. you dont realy treat a meaningless game of strip poker with a pole dancer as something special

and these days.. its bettr to spend time walking into retailers in your town and get them to adopt bitcoin.. rather than find historic events to hope you can energise adoption with stories of the good old days
14967  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is Bitcoin Mining Really Causing Environmental Damage? Maybe not that much... on: July 21, 2018, 07:58:38 PM
blah blah. chart chart 2008

ok... lets react to your chart. and like a poker game raise you my chart

yep its not 2008-2016.. but even from 2012-2016 you can see the growth..

nice bluff with the 2008 chart though..
anyway
left
~22500 in 2008
~29000 in 2012
~69000 in 2016
right
~49twh in 2008   
~119twh in 2012
~262twh in 2016

i don some trrible math in previous post converting hour yo year. which i remove in a few minutes of reading. but using a poker term, you had a quick hand to quote it in thm few minutes..

anyway.
upto 2016 it was using under 100twh but producing able to produce far more.. so had spare seats

right now coal gnerators take so long to set up, warm up and get on the road that they end up just staying on the road and act like Uber, taking othr people and leasing out their spare seat..
Wrong, coal power plants are always kept on standby and they can produce at 90% in a matter of 10-30 minutes, gas power plants are even faster at coming back online.
[/quote]
what i saiid and what you said are the same thing.. coal are not switched off. because it takes time to turn them on.. so they are always on and just sat at idle asking anyone to lease their time. they are ready to go and act as the uber driver.. because it cost too much to turn them off

and the plan/utopia is for renewables to be the standby/uber and then for coal to get to leave its engine OFF not always be in standby asking if othr countries need a lift.

as for the bits below.. well you conveniently you start talking about solar and wind.... nice subtle deflection away from hydro..

Almost every country in Europe is using coal or gas to balance the loads, Germany, for example, is backpedaling on the closure of coal mine as they've experienced the same thing as Poland, 4 days with barely any energy from solar and wind.
With coal/gas plants and imports they would have experienced the stone age for a week.


yes solar and wind are vary iffy.. especially wind. but if you took hydro you can have a more controlled mix then gothermal, then biomass.. and then.. have solar next inline and then wind to use as last. you can control things. EG wind is the worse. unpredictable and so when supply is high wind can be turned off easily.. then solar and then hydro.
what the energy companies are trying to do is get to a point where it is not coal thats the main source/last to switch off.. they eventually want hydro to be the always on standby(uber) and have coal and wind as the temporary

before i continue.. ill just say this
as for mentioning countries like poland.. again nice sidestep.. you do know that poland latitude means it only gets under 8 hours of sunlight in january.
im kind of thinking you meandered away from hydro.. and away from china.. to talk about solar/wind in poland for a convenient reason..

but lets stick with hydro in china..

blah blah germany.. blah blah off topic

now imagine if a big industry comes up to the neighbour and says. il give you a contract to lease out the spare seat of your hydro/solar hybrid car for a year AND we still have 2 back seats so that Mr Coal can tag along in the hydro-solar car.. making the hydro-solar car the Uber and so now the coal car can finally switch off its engine and get phased out.

Unfortunately, the energy sector is not like that.
There is little to spare, there are no empty seats and people are driving in opposite directions.
Car sharing will never be able to even dream what load balancing does to the energy sector.

Don't get me wrong I don't like coal either but without a clean way to store energy, solar and wind will never be able to replace fossil.

firstly energy sector WAS not like that. BUT is moving towards the things i said..
right now coal have lots to spare. its why they are able to sell it.. but for hydro to expand and become Lift(competitor to uber) they first need good reason to keep hydro production running 24/7.. and thats where contracted year supplys come in.. they can then get guaranteed year round revenue. and then use that revenue to expand. and have a fleet of Lift drivers(dams)

solar/wind(facepalm)

.. anyway china.. hydro (the subject of this topic) CAN store energy.. (reservoirs)
storing water vs storing coal. water is more environmentally friendly.. .. (fish and ducks CANT have sex and repopulate in coal) Cheesy
turning water into electric does not produce smog.
and
imagine this.. the water thats released from a dam... can fill another reservoir.. and that same exact water can be re-used to turn more turbines

now.. to address your whole meandering..
i never said that right now this second hydro IS uber... but thats the future plan
right now electric companies need a consistant contract and payment for them to have a reason to keep hydro on 24/7.. and then use those funds to expand.. (its not free to make new dams)
so by doing yearly contracts of known electricrical usage (hiring a chauffer for a year) means the driver has a constant role to play and can expand business because they have constant revenue..
14968  Economy / Speculation / Re: RECENT BITCOIN BULL RUN GOOD BAD OR UGLY on: July 21, 2018, 03:37:44 PM
dcember/january was not a bull thn bear. it was a spike/drop

Would you call the September to January run-up a bull market trend though? A $3000-$19,000 run-up would probably fit in the bull market trend category. Though of course it wasn't a smooth sailing rise; a few hiccups here and there.

nope. the spike was obvious HYPE and not based on a VALUE increase..
bull markets are optomistic rises that are felt to last and sustain themselves for months/years
Quote
BREAKING DOWN 'Bull Market'
Bull markets are characterized by optimism, investor confidence and expectations that strong results should continue, usually for months or years

its actually easy to chart out the difference between VALUE and the spculative PRICE
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4468667.msg42509945#msg42509945
and when you see the PRICE rise 3X-4x the value.. you know its not sustainable and will drop. thus no confidence about lastability.. and just a short temporary opertunity to grab good quick profits surfing a temporary drama wave which u know will crash


the way i see it is this
2016: never dropped below $300
2017: never dropped below $900
2018: never dropped below $5500
and the optimism and investor confidence is that 2016-2018 is bull
there is optomism and confidence that 2019 will be at a SUSTAINED average that still does not go below $5500 and will infact be higher. so although you cant predict by how much or how soon.. investors have confidence that 2018-2019 will be bullish too..

as for the temporary daily emotional/speculative rises and falls above $5500. well thats just drama and not a sign of the long term vison/confidnce
14969  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: List of Government-funded Bitcoin and Blockchain Projects on: July 21, 2018, 03:16:10 PM
old news
2015:
Quote
Estonia is one of the ‘Digital
'digital 5’ or D5 group of nations, of which the other members are the UK, Israel, New
Zealand and South Korea. There are opportunities for the UK to work with and
learn from these and other like-minded governments in the implementation of
block chain and related technologies
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/492972/gs-16-1-distributed-ledger-technology.pdf

they have been part of the R3 project, hyperledger and many others over the years
14970  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Kick against btc now and regret in future. on: July 21, 2018, 02:46:14 PM
Money is what the society accepts to be money. Human history has seen so many transformations when it comes to the subject of money.From barter trade to fiat money and now digital currency. But some nations are so rigid to change.well they will all regret soon because no country can stop cryptocurrency.

socially. people hope for this.. but reality is different.
take china. 1 billion people. america less than a third.

yet. when a chinese person comes to america they cant just say chinese currency is more popular around the world so here you go mr merchant take my chinese currency and give me my goods.

what has to happen is LAWS need to change. businesses are stuck with paying their staff based on minimum wage laws of the fiat of the country the staff work in, tax laws, even businesses accountants audit a businesses profitability based on fiat.

untill a business can handle paying staff, tax and getting to measure a businesses profits/margins in another currency in one fluid way without having the headaches of swapping back and forth. its not just a easy revolution of "accept this different currncy and give me the goods"

th easiest way to think about it is this
replace the word bitcoin for yuan...  and then replace mainstream for america.. and ask yourself what does
mainstream need to do to successfully accept bitcoin
mindset:
america need to do to successfully accept yuan

you will find the answers of both actually be the same answer, and that answer is not just social choice /citizen revolution
14971  Economy / Speculation / Re: RECENT BITCOIN BULL RUN GOOD BAD OR UGLY on: July 21, 2018, 01:41:18 PM
i have to laugh. when people see a 10%(~$600) drop or rise they scream bull or bear.sorry but 10% is just dancing around a field.

a bull or bear run is not something as temporarry as a hour/day. it the average direction over a longer period.
short term movements of a few hours or days are just rises and falls.. and if th rises and falls are significant % then thy are spikes and dips.

but a bull run or bear run is more of the long term marathon not the short term sprint.

dcember/january was not a bull thn bear. it was a spike/drop
february-june was more of a stangant dance of rise and fall

we have not really seen what the medium-longterm direction of 2018 is.. but the long term of 2009-2018 has definetly shown to be very bullish
14972  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is Bitcoin Mining Really Causing Environmental Damage? Maybe not that much... on: July 21, 2018, 01:16:15 PM
If that energy wouldn't be used for bitcoin mining it would be used for another purpose that right now is using coal energy. Pretty simple. Let's say that all the energy from the three gorges dam is going to be used for bitcoin mining, what are the people that currently are using that energy going to do? Turn to coal!!!!

BS
as for the idea that utility companies import electric due to over capacity is another flawed notion.

imagine electric generation.. like a car journey
right now coal gnerators take so long to set up, warm up and get on the road(send electric through the cables) that they end up just staying on the road and act like Uber, taking other people and leasing out their spare seat.. because its wastes so much fuel warming up the car each time you turn on and off the key, it ends up easier to leave the engine on

 the truth is more likened to the concept of car sharing. imagine every day your car has 4 seats but only 1 commuter (the driver).. imagine your neighbour knows you can get him to the destination and does not want the hassle of warming up his own car. checking the car is fit to drive and then taking the journey alone. so asks because you are already on the road if he can take a spare seat and share in the running cost.

now imagine if a big industry comes up to the neighbour and says. il give you a contract to lease out the spare seat of your hydro/solar hybrid car for a year AND we still have 2 back seats so that Mr Coal can tag along in the hydro-solar car.. making the hydro-solar car the Uber and so now the coal car can finally switch off its engine and get phased out.

think about that
have a nice day
14973  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Bitcoin Trivia on: July 20, 2018, 11:30:52 AM
3. 1 Million Bitcoin Was Pre-Mined By Satoshi Nakamoto (4.75% Bitcoin Max Supply)

wrong

premined is a term for where coins are released WITHOUT mining  (pre-mine)
satoshi's coins where created VIA mining..

secondly. the code was released publicly and if you look at the hidden techy stats of the blockchain. you will see that multiple people were mining it. and yes that includes hal finney mining it in the very first days

thirdly although between 2009 and 2012 although 10.5 mill coins were mined. meaning in year one 2.5mill coins were mined. guess what. satoshi was not a third of the population in 2009. there were actually dozens. so the 1mill coin number is not accurate. even the nonce analysis shows this
14974  Economy / Economics / Re: Blockchain and Medicine in Africa on: July 20, 2018, 12:35:38 AM
<snip>
That's a great explanation.  I'm no blockchain expert, as everyone here knows, but when I hear stuff like "blockchain and medicine" it makes me think of ICO claims that can't be fulfilled.  The medical records aspect of medicine does indeed sound like it could lend itself to a blockchain solution.  Makes me wonder about patient confidentiality and hacking, but again I'm just having those thoughts as a non-expert in crypto.  Edit:  I'm not talking about hacking as though bitcoin could be hacked; I'm talking about people with the information getting their computers hacked, just like bitcoin owners have.

hacking..
remember. the database is not stored in one location. its in multiple clinics/ hositals in multiple regions. so no one can (excuse the pun) doctor the records.
as for how the records get into a block. imagine a blood test result is not simply added as a tx signed by 1 doctor. but instead relayed out and requires upto 5 doctors/signatures... great.. automatic 'second/third opinion' EG lab tech in region A. blood/haemotologist specialist in region B and then the patients family physician(GP) which increases accuracy of diagnoses due to second/third opinions.

whereby that data is not stored in clear text but encrypted using the keys of upto 5 people
lab tech,
blood specialist.
patients physician
patient
patients closest hospital

now a hacker would need to have both/atleast 2 keys to unencrypt the data.
also the "computer" (node) does not need to be a standard PC but a secured device in a lockbox (aeroplane black box idea(extra strong lockbox for a raspbery Pi)) that is tamper proof unless you physically got hold of it and broke it open to then .. as i said still need the 2 of 5 private keys just to viw that data of that specific result..

Quote
I would love for there to be some sort of revolution in Africa.  A large part of the continent has been living in the tribal ages and doesn't seem to have evolved much.  Sure they have cell phones, but they also have dirt roads and kill people in the streets with impunity--kind of like some countries in South America.  Most of that has to do with government, but those countries need to move forward.  I don't know of there's a blockchain solution, or even if it could help at all, but it'd be nice.

i think you have been reading too many fox news reports. things have moved on since the emotional OXFAM videos of the 1980's where you see crying babies starving, where oxfam never actually bothered to answer the question.. if it takes12 hours to walk to clean water, why do thy not just camp at the clean water.(have a deep thought about that question)
if you had to walk 6 hours to work.. 6 hours from work.. you would end up selling your home(more specifically pack up your tent) and move camp next to your work, right?

what is not shown is a high majority of these oxfam appeals, if the camera's just turned 180 degree's would see that these shanty towns border large cities where people are forced out of the city due to high rents. and usually waiting hours in a queue for the water truck..
instead they video people using local rivers(making it seem only the rivers are available and those rivers are dozens of miles away, to play on our heart strings)
aftr all would you donate if the camera panned around and seed a skyscaper just 1 mile away. nope. so oxfam set a scene that wells are needed so that oxfam can make money making the wells and save money by not needing to daily deliver watr trucks to the homeless on the outskirts of cities
remember the 1980's tear jerking charity drives for ethiopia.. then check out this image
https://cms.qz.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/addislandscape.jpg


also the shanty towns further into the deserts/jungles (where you see the guys with guns) are usualy villages set up temporarily for gold mining and or nature preserves where the blockades you see are the land owners making sure their land is protected from uninvited miners/animal poachers.
they chose to be there.
after all.. is sandy desert or tree's something worth shooting ovr. nope.. but valuable land suh as gold plots. and endangrd animals ned to be protected. they dont have guns and live in the wild for no reason.

these people do have access to vehicles and guns so a cell phone to receive a text about if they are diabetic.. is not much of a stretch
(might be worth you researching M-pesa as their cross border/local electronic payment system)

as for the area's that are "tribal" and not evolved. have made the conscious choice to avoid evolving. (like some Amish/indian comunities) they infact even avoid modern healthcare and still believe in only using their shamen healers.. to which i say. allow them to heal themselves in they ways they believe
14975  Economy / Speculation / Re: What do you Think the True Value of Bitcoin Is? on: July 19, 2018, 11:35:42 PM
you actually can calculate VALUE

imagine you had the $7500 PRICE.. and then split it up into segments.
by comparing different factors, events, you can get a pretty good idea of measuring different factors and putting a value attached to it.

imagine every feature, benefit, function, ability as a separate entity.
you can look at 1643 other coins out there. and look at the majority of coins that have the same element. and meaure its values

EG PoW is easy to measure. and across all the 541 coins that use PoW. that measure shows a pattern.. you then deduct that value away from those coins.
EG yesterdays hashrate went upto 45exa, compared to last weks average of 38.
meaining yesterdays cost of mining was ~$6950 as oppose to last wks average of ~$5850.. which when then looking at the PRICE chart you can see on average there is an extra $400 average of other features, benefits and speculation that make up the difference betwen bottomline cost vs price

whats best to do is take the stats of days when the PRICE is at its lowest for a period. as thats the times of less speculative emotion and leaving only the "Valued" elements where people refuse to sell below.

lets take the 29th june. the average hashrate was 35exa ($5400 mining cost) and the average price was at the periods rock bottom of ~$5800

so knowing theres no big positive hyp news, emotion, speculation. you can then equate the $400 to be certain feature/utility attributes
now out of the 541 PoW coins you can then look at how many coins have a 10 minute blocktime for instance and then see if there is a noticable pattern to "value" comparing it to other PoW coins that have less blocktime or more blocktime compared to other coins of near similar other features
you can then quantify that.
then you can take the coins/block... or total end supply target and find other coins with the same.. and quantify that.

then once you have that. you can see the layers.

whats left over is the more volatile temporary emotional elements that can change at a moment notice. like the emotion around something being promoted heavily one wek but then not heavily for day/months. these more emotional temporary events are the speculation EG december was very very speculative

i have made a chart.


remmber
the yellow area is emotional stuff.. of hope, hype and belief..
the orange area is features stuff.. of value of tx/s.. blocktime, total eventual coin supply, etc..
th blue area is cost of mining

i have kinda worked out, based on data of other coins of similar features. and ignoring the speculative hypes.. that FEATURES are worth about 7% of mining cost. ontop

what you will also notice(if you looked at all the same hidden data) is that the while hashrates continued to rise, cost of mining began to drop at the start of the year where a new batch of CHEAPER miners (the now $850 s9i) replaced the old ($2k s9 miners).. (yea i know the cheaper batches were not PUBLICLY released months ago but at that point the main pools did get their hands on early releases and the pools/manufacturers did actually lower the prices of the old batch to sell them off.
this is why as of january although hashrate rose. it did not react to a mining cost rise as that was offset by the asic unit cost decreasing over time to level it off. which is why there is a not a slope down or a sudden drop either as it took months for pools to get their hands on and re-evaluate their new costs).

anyway, enjoy
(short version. right now there is little to no emotional speculation this summer. so treat it as a good discount/low price to buy in)
data is stil a work in progress but you start to see that the price (tip of speculation and includes speculation and costs/value/feature can easily show when something is at an unsustainable HYPE and when something is at a low PRICE which should be demed as a great value time to buy before new hype/speculation or even increase of cost/value baseline

..
using chart data of blockchain.info of 18th/july/2018 breakdown
mining cost: 6898.17
features 7%: 482.87
value total: 7381.04

which if you then check th price if bitcoin on 18th july PRICE $7399
leaves only ~$18 of speculation/emotion
14976  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin follow statistics on: July 18, 2018, 11:59:03 PM
bitcoin is not AI. it has no voice, no legs, no arms. bitcoin doesnt follow anything.

the price follows whomever limited population is logged into an exchange. in most cases its day traders using bots.
in many cases these bots are not following real cost controls/support (technical analysis)
instead these bots are lazily programmed to sheep follow trend anals.

trend anals vs technical analysis are 2 separate things.

following trends, is not smart. is not based on anything realistic. its just going in circles insanely for no reason but to repeat the past
if we get bots to stop trend analing. and instead actualy be smartbots that sek out real value support stats. then things can move on, and progress




14977  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Who are these nuts? on: July 18, 2018, 08:31:27 PM
OP, you forgot to add the part where alex jones then tries to sell you thyroid aiding liquid.

stuff that if your body doesnt need it, your body pee's it into a toilet in 24 hours.. basically he's selling a product that end up flushed away the next day and cant be held onto or utilised by your body longterm and has no resell value once sold.
..oh and those that do have thyroid issues, have thyroid issues due to the body not wanting/able to convert iodine. thus you could drink litres of it and your body still just pee's it out

.. which sums up pretty much how little he knows about a good investment
14978  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BitPico throwing down against Roger Ver on: July 18, 2018, 07:06:54 PM
ok lets set this matter straight.

TL:DR;
summary
hashrate- meaningless bigger hashrate does not force a node to reprogram itself just cos it has lots of hashrate
non-mining usernodes: meaningless more copies does not force a node to reprogram itself just cos many copies exist
non-mining mrchant nodes: has sway. because if a merchant can s a payment. then a pool can spend its reward and users can daytrade/buy stuff

waffle version:
mining pools can change the format of a block to anything they please and within thier community get their friends to download node versions to accept such new block styles. but when other nodes receive the blocks, if they dont fit the others rules the blocks get rejected. ... and it does not matter how much hash power went into the creation of the block. if it doesnt fit the rules, its rejected.

random guy 'jimmy' with just a node in his basement doesnt have sway over the community direction the network changes. and mining pools also cant just send out a new block format that nodes automatically accept new blocks (blocks do not AI rewrite the rules of nodes)

node users need to download a version that accepts the new blocks. again. pools cant just make a new format and magically make old nodes accept it

now heres where the non-mining community do have sway
what needs to happen is the merchants/exchanges which the pools and users use have more non-mining sway. because if a merchant/exchange is not seeing transactions then pools/users cannot spend their funds. so as i said little jimmy cant sway the network but if the majority of merchants/exchanges accept block B format. usually everyone else follows
...
flipping the argument
anyone can set up 20,000 littl jimmys that accept block B format. and also set up a pool of 56exahash accepting block B.. but in the end if coinbase, blockchain.info, bitstamp, (list many othr merchants) and the pools are still block A, merchants and pools will just reject blockB and ban nodes sending out blockB. thus making block B an altcoin that is unspendabl due to no mrchant adoption

end result is no disruption to the block A network. and block B jimmys and 56exahash pool of block B .. but ends up only communicating with their own kind as a altcoin.

the non-mining nodes DO have sway.. but its not home user sway of majority.. its who will accept my money/sees my payment (merchant) sway

believe it or not back in 2012. MTGOX and silkroad.. just 2 nodes had more non-mining community sway than 4000 non-mining nodes. they could have collaberated and said they will only accept blocks/tx of X format/fee/value. and you would have soon seen the pools adapt to it so that the pools could spend their rewards on mtgox. and the 4000 users would have downloaded the new rules so they too could day trade/buy drugs.

take most crap coin scenarios. when an exchange drops a crapcoin. it does not matter how much hashrate that coin had.
or what amount the user node count may rise or drop to. the usernode count made no difference
if theres no where to spend it. that crap coin dies off, miners switch their asics over to another coin that is acceptable to exchanges. and unless the community can hold out and rally other exchanges to take that crap coin on, the community moves to another coin too. crying that they are left with a bag of crap thats now worthless

it does not matter if there are 2million copies of the same blockchain or just 7000 copies. if the 7000 copies are merchants. then the 1.999,300 user nodes could decide to reject blocks. but then they are rejcting blocks of tx's that merchants recognise. thus the usernodes are just separating themselves from being able to spend thir own funds.. basically punishing themselves to download and hold blocks that cant be spent
14979  Economy / Speculation / Re: What do you Think the True Value of Bitcoin Is? on: July 18, 2018, 01:28:12 AM
The true value of bitcoin is not constant. Sometimes high and sometimes low but last year the month that the highest value of bitcoin is december as my frend told me. Maybe this year, the value of bitcoin rise in december again.☺

true VALUE is more stable then you think..
but PRICE is not constance. sometimes high sometimes low.. last year the month with the highest PRICE was december. but last december had alot of speculation in the PRICE which could not back up the underlying VALUE. thus the PRICE corrected down nearer to the underlying VALUE

learn difference between price vs value
14980  Economy / Speculation / Re: What do you Think the True Value of Bitcoin Is? on: July 18, 2018, 01:11:21 AM
dont look at the bitcoin price and ask what is the value.

instead do some maths on the cost of creating bitcoin. (mining)
EG take the hashrate and divide it by the amount of asics needed to get that hashrate
work out the electric costs needed.

then once you have the XX electric/hour.. divide that by 6(amount of blocks per hour)
then divide that by 12.5 to get the cost per btc.

now you have electric VALUE cost.... also imagine the asic equipment has a years shelf life. so take the initial amount of asics needed and cost them at ~$850 each.. then divide that by 657000(12.5*144*365 is bitcoins mined per year) to get the physical rig cost per btc

..
scrw it. ill give u an exampl based on todays stats
hashrate: 38exahash  (38million terrahash)
2714286 asics(38m /14) (because each asic is 14thash)
each asic is 1.3kw/h
3528571kw/h

lets say electric is 5cents an hour = $176428.57 per hour
=$29404.76 per block or electric
=$2352.38 per btc for electric
now add on physical cost of rig
2714286* $850=$2307143100 per year shelf life
=6320940 per day
=$43895.42 per block
=$3511.63 per btc

so 2352.38+3511.63=$5864.01

and now you see the bottomline average cost of mining btc this month..$5864
which explains why the btc price did not dip below that value
(take into account my maths is rough/bottomiline, costs can be higher for area's that are not 5cent/kw)

now ill leave you to do some maths if the hashrate went up to 42exahash which will start to become a new hash average soon
(simple hint for lazyness.. take the end total... divide by 38 then multiply by 42, if you dont want to do it the long way round)

then you can start thinking about hashrate of the future and calculate costs..

.. then and only then look at the markt price and see how close to the cost (near bottomline value) or how far above(lots of over valued speculation) there is
..
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