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1501  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 08, 2015, 10:35:53 PM
Yeah, after consuming 2 bottles of DP 2004 this week, it came to mind that I was drinking the same stuff also when celebrating $100. That was mind-blown, becoming a millionaire by holding virtual money!!

(I don't mean $500 was not nice, but the first time always feels best)
1502  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 08, 2015, 10:30:57 PM
my bitcoin are only worth what they were 6 days ago...   Cry

...after just hitting the yearly high  Roll Eyes
1503  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: November 08, 2015, 05:56:35 PM
I am also interested. I have a base in Serbia, does that qualify for any cheaper shipping than Estonia?
1504  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Crypto Kingdom - 1991 Retro Virtual World(City) on: November 08, 2015, 05:52:37 PM
Year Change 1610 - Update

Quote
This is the "incomplete year change" due to being the first one in Ultima platform, and we must not only learn how to do it, but also many of the methods currently available are so clumsy that they will be created, and if this does not happen in time, the item is either cancelled and does not happen, or postponed, so that its effect is double-calculated later.

^^ Which happened big time and we spent 3 weeks to make a kickass functional database, and succeeded! The year change power command, DIVIDEND is now working! Thank you all!!

Blue text indicates the parts done. Red indicates not yet done.


CON

All issues and dividends and consolidations are completed.


Food freebies

Completed. 1800*FOIE distributed.


Generation of new wine and silver from IC

This will happen as planned, with new items credited and IC deducted from your balance automatically.


Generation of stone

1609-10 will have 2 teams by NewReconstructionCorp, and both close operations subsequently. Stone not recorded.


Carriages

Phaeton has laid off 50% of workforce, which has cut the production capacity in half (facility is still fully needed for the purpose though). New carriages can be self-converted by their CEO after a short introduction from me concerning how it is done.


Suits

Production is ceased.


Royal Mint

CR1609A, CR1610A, CS1608E, CS1609E and CS1610E are in the market.


CKG and building pool dividends

These will not be dealt. The money accrues to the earmarked accounts so this does not constitute any harm except delayed cashflow.


Salary

We distributed free money to L3-L7 characters in double (1.4-5.6 mil).


Land tax, extra tax

We still need to figure out the way to calculate them. No taxes are paid from years 1608 onwards, but they accrue as tax liability, which will be collected as soon as possible.


Lots listing for sale

The ask prices from googlesheet have been converted to Ultima SELL commands (in google tab /sellLot) but everyone must execute their own, admin cannot place orders for others.


Resumption of play

Commands are available to use, including a very powerful DIVIDEND command (DIVIDEND recipient_item_id dividend_item_id quantity, eg. DIVIDEND CON M 200000, giving 200000 units of M from active_character per each CON owned by anyone).

So play is resumed.


Year Change 1613

Year change 1613 will happen in quick order - since the game was effectively paused, mainly the calendar-time dependent things (minting coins, taxes, CON payments) will happen. This will be completed possibly in ~2 days and will be expounded here soon.

Royal Mint

As previously, we made a smallish quantity of CR161xA coins to keep the series intact from 1601 (in awaiting of the EXP->gold). These will be sold to the market, which will take care of the further distribution.

A handful of CS161xE coins are minted.

After a long pause in CRxxxxE minting, one roll of CR1612E is made.


Wine

The conditions have been difficult and seems that 1610 vintage was lost. Also there is not yet any white wine produced to speak of. W1611 and W1612 exist and may soon be converted out of IC if desired.


CON auction

Since 3,000 CON is such a nice round figure, the Town will issue 760*CON with proceeds used as partial payment of the October dev milestone.

The auction will last 48 hours and is conducted here. CON midprice as we speak is 12.6 mil. This auction has 11.5 mil minimum price and 50 units minimum bid size. CON is available to be traded both ways in the game during the auction.


Future modules

New Player Registration, Gold generation, EXP, tutorial

API

Health Challenge

Buildings


All of the above are very close, they have been in development for some time already but there has always been a fire to put out. Expect to quickly see progress in this field!
1505  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Crypto Kingdom - 1991 Retro Virtual World(City) on: November 07, 2015, 03:24:41 PM
Update - functionality is resumed in the nearest hours

Another 2.5-week ordeal of game in pause is soon behind us. The needed changes have been implemented (requiring the rewrite of just about everything in the process, resulting in a much more resilient construction). Now what happens is that:

- I close down my "other business" that I've been doing during the pause including the amazing cooperation opportunities between CK and Bitnation.
- Conclude the year change ->1610 that was in the process when the repair was ordered.
- Open the commands to be used by everybody for all purposes.
- Change the year to ->1613 (  Tongue time flies.. )

Then the functional improvements will come in about the same order as announced before.

I swear there will never again be a pause in the game this long - it is a sign of utter unprofessionalism, not something I fancy to be part of.

Thank you for your patience.
1506  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: November 07, 2015, 02:48:23 PM
But in order for this flawed premise to be true: for something to be unattackable, it would have to be perfect and pure....a one or zero, and this will never happen.

Cogito Ergo Sum = 1.

We are actually in the heart of CK here.. it's all about constructing a virtual entity which has an indestructible consensus on who owns what - provided by the transparency, which is not a technology and thus cannot be compromised as easily.

How do you make people unbelieve that 2 + 2 = 4? Well it's really difficult.
1507  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 07, 2015, 02:45:39 PM
Once we get to 600 and then see the first weekly red candle, then the mini-rally is over. If you were in the business of speculation or wanted to lighten up, the good time to sell is the dcb after that. So wait for the bubble, and the pop, and the next bounce. Then sell.
1508  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: November 07, 2015, 02:32:25 PM
Which actually leads me to believe that non-cryptographic, unattackable solutions such as CK would have some merit.

Either you are terribly naive about it, or worse. It is not even close to unattackable, and I am at a loss why you would think it might be. Either explain this in a non handwavy fashion (ie, the "if it gets corrupted, people can recreate it from memory" leap of faith), or stop claiming it is unattackable.

It takes time to understand what exactly is the aim, and why such a low-tech solution as CK does indeed have advantages over hypertech solutions such as XMR.

The aim can be described as follows: the state of the world needs to be incorruptible and the transfers uninfringeable. Bitcoin aims to achieve these by public blockchain and miner consensus. CK has public DB state and community consensus. It can be debated which one is better and in which way, but when the going gets rough (let's say Internet as we know it, dies), I would bet on CK to survive since it has more meat in the community than Bitcoin. It is hard to explain why I believe this, especially if you knew how high level guys are just sitting next to me, but luckily we have no reason to choose just one - I have invested (in descending order) into BTC, XMR and CK, which gives the confidence that if 1-2 of them bite the dust, the going is so rough that the remaining one will certainly increase in value so much as to recoup the losses anyway Wink
1509  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: November 07, 2015, 08:51:58 AM
I believe cryptography is pretty secondary as long as every device is institutionally keylogged.

Which actually leads me to believe that non-cryptographic, unattackable solutions such as CK would have some merit.
1510  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Crypto Kingdom - 1991 Retro Virtual World(City) on: November 05, 2015, 07:54:14 PM
Hi all,

Not too much news from me, since we had decided that the finalising of the migration to the new items balances bookkeeping system is the job of the other guys in the Council... and it is done soon but not right yet (afaik..)

Sorry about that - but I am also not spending my time in vain, instead plotting some truly high level stuff in a multi-discipline environment:

Click me to view some serious sht

As a result of the summit, naturally held in the Royal Palace of Malla, the following things may transpire in the coming months and years:

- EU will accept blockchain records as officially timestamped documents
- BITNATION gets a kickstart funding round partly powered by CK
- CK marketing will be greatly boosted by new ideas and people
- Malla will (finally) become a perpetual hackathon venue.


1511  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin long-term exponential trend (updated regularly) on: October 31, 2015, 07:54:49 AM
And the analysis use straightforward extrapolation. There is a huge diminishing return on growth as you go up and reach a global market level of cap.

In theory, the current price should be the probability-weighted-average of future scenarios, discounted to the present with discount-rate.

In the very beginning of Bitcoin, we wonder how "nobody" realized that it could become a million times more valuable in 5 years? Why did sirius sell 5kBTC for $5?

A few answers:
- information not spread
- buying additional coins does not give a real-life edge (if you are broke and in a small probability make $20M instead of $10M not a big deal for most)
- discount rate is high, making a large payoff in the possible distant future be of little value now
- time sink/stress generator - many don't want to invest until it is big since while it is much less upside, it is also easier and safer (I refused to order a promising free energy device just because of the hassle. I can order it a few months later).

In practice, there was a time when log-linear trendline was the best fit to the data. Currently not too sure about it.

There is a diminishing return on profits when a large enough market cap is reached. But this means diminished risk of losses as well. If BTC reaches the $100 trillion cap which is required for it to dethrone fiat, the diminishing upside kicks in starting at 10,000 times higher price than current. Clearly this is still a better investment than most re:upside.
1512  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: October 30, 2015, 08:36:05 PM
Rpietila has done quite a lot of that already. Next to Crypto Kingdom, he also donated quite a lot to the dev team.

Yeah, and I have probably donated more of my time than some of the devs (CK has been a 50+ hour per week project for most of its existence of 1+ year).

But no way anyone could buy my time anyway... I do what I feel needs to be done. When I lectured in the former high school, I paid my trips even. But as a result, today the teacher promised she will be showing videos about Bosnian Pyramids to the students  Grin

I don't believe too many highschools include Bosnian Pyramids in the history. This is what I like to do.
1513  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: October 30, 2015, 07:50:54 PM
It doesn't matter how hard the reality is now

It does.

Should I sell my XMR to prove to you that I don't like the concentration that is happening?

(I also don't like that nobody even recognizes this is the problem. As with price, today it is 0.3734 EUR/XMR, twelve days ago it was 0.3735. That one is holding steady.)
1514  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin long-term exponential trend (updated regularly) on: October 30, 2015, 08:56:12 AM
What assets would be good to invest in?

He's talking about stuff like owning rental properties in highly desirable areas. So if you own housing, food-producing assets, some skills, and some unseizable crypto, then you're as protected as you're going to get.  

Slightly off-topic but what other income generating assets do you recommend? Rental houses and farmland both fall under land property and can easily be taxed to hell and back in times of a financial crisis.

The assets you actually own (can hold/hide) never generate income, with the exception of skills.

In financial crisis, land is usually taken from those who cannot pay, so not from you who are prepared.

In war, land may be taken from you. So since this is a fear, land is cheap and war is a good time to buy land while understanding risks.

You cannot go to the crisis with income-producing assets only, because the crisis may anyway retain them unproductive. Crisis buffer should be liquid holder assets such as gold, silver and crypto.

Sell all financial assets where the "system" is the counterparty. Since there is no way for them to make good of their promises, they will probably screw you.

When there is a stock market crash and recovery, it may be a sign that the crisis has reached the turning point. But today's markets are manipulated to the core, and inflation is running rampant. average P/E= 7 or P/B = 1 are reasonable (currently both 5x higher).
1515  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: October 29, 2015, 09:47:06 PM
I've always believed that "more inflation now <=> less inflation later".

Yes, it is correct. What the community refused to believe a year ago, and seemingly still do, is that both are harmful.

Now we don't need much inflation as the coin is small and inflation does not benefit anyone (including the usual but completely incorrect claim that it "distributes the coins" which can only happen if the community grows, and can be witnessed in marketcap growth). Later we would need more inflation to show that the coin is not a pyramid game but that the monetary base is growing as newcomers enter in.
1516  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Crypto Kingdom - 1991 Retro Virtual World(City) on: October 29, 2015, 09:33:04 PM
Town Council Meeting - memo

1. Database logic overhaul is in the final stage. It enables faster and much more reliable action, and increases security and transparency so that admin powers can be given to multiple people. This is important when we move to the growth phase.

The play will resume in about 2-3 days. It will still require me to finish the transactions that were left in limbo in the previous attempt at year change. There will be the finishing of that first, and soon after another double year.

2. We discussed about game organization and decided:
- I (as GM) will make the admin guide and select admins.
- We are seeking a marketing professional among the players to be a coordinator.

3. Town is issuing 760*CON via an auction to finance development. This is the last dev milestone this year. The auction starts when the game is playable again. The auction will be held in this thread with exact terms published then. There will be a minimum of 50*CON. (it is available to be purchased in the aftermarket as well)
1517  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin long-term exponential trend (updated regularly) on: October 29, 2015, 06:41:03 PM
Remember to sell when it goes up 100% a week, the final day is 30% per day. We are not yet there but things can evolve quickly. When this happens, it is a local peak, has been many times before and is now Smiley

when do you recommend to buy back after this happens?

Heh that's the trickier part.

In my SSS link I actually advise against trying to time the peaks at all and rather sell at predetermined price increases, and not buy back.

Open Bitcoincharts.com and study all the bubbles - the low is typically quite much lower than the peak, in case of major peaks that have first made an ATH (2011/6, 2013/4, 2013/12) it has always been about 20% of the peak. Since in my opinion it is realistic to sell on average at 60% of the peak price in these cases, you can still set the bid at 1/2, even 1/3 of your sell price and historically it will still hit.

If the bubble fails to make a new ATH during its course, the price downside is less.

As is the topic of the thread, we are way behind the trend so a superbubble similar to the first one in 2013 is easily possible. Here the trader (not SSS investor) does well by waiting until a weekly red candle comes, and sells only the following week. Selling prematurely is the greatest danger here.
1518  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin long-term exponential trend (updated regularly) on: October 29, 2015, 04:11:33 PM
Remember to sell when it goes up 100% a week, the final day is 30% per day. We are not yet there but things can evolve quickly. When this happens, it is a local peak, has been many times before and is now Smiley
1519  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: October 29, 2015, 03:46:43 PM
are busy creating crises to keep people in fear.
I don't think the majority of bankers are purposefully creating the crisis to keep people in fear. They are just greedy and there is a tremendous incentive from their viewpoint to keep the current system that yields them tens of billions dollar per year profit keep going. No doubt that Goldman Sachs and the likes run the show via their sockpuppets in central banks and government, and those greedy f@ckers in the banks aren't going to give up their global ATM machine easily - after all the money supply never dry out in that global ATM machine.

We are talking about the top layer of guys, not the ones that are employed by banks.

The top layer holds the power to create and destroy money, and that can be used with good or evil intentions. The system itself is evil, and it is used evilly, and being confused about its nature does not make it any less evil or intentional.
1520  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: October 29, 2015, 03:05:27 PM
I am lamenting the emission cut did not pass a year ago. Currently we just get loads and loads of cheap XMR on top of what we have, and when the value is realized in the wider audience, it feels almost as bad as a premine, with great concentrations of coin in the hands of people who already were rich and smart and forward-looking.

The intention is not to punish from such qualities, but now the reward is so excessive it makes me blush  Embarrassed

"Equal opportunity" loses some of its allure when nobody is using it (and then complain afterwards, same as with BTC)
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