I also have one btc stowed away. In the format of a ticket for the btc1k party. It's in a corner, almost forgotten, has been accumulating dust for a while. I wouldn't mind using it before Xmas this year.
There is a good chance that the price will be 5k on the day of the btc1k party. So the ticket to the $1k party was $1k (as you will only get to use it if Bitcoin reaches $1k again). That's quite pricey for a party ... You get what you pay for. So I hope it'll be a pretty good party  plug: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=285771.0 |
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BNP Paribas is a major French Bank. http://www.bnpparibas.com/en$9bn fine? Ha. Banks shit this kind of money in one trip to the bathroom. I don't know about you, but I shit 3-5 times a day. Paying fines is just considered a cost of doing business. Every major bank has to pay the U.S. Government at some point. Like a gangster shaking down a storekeeper for protection money...except the government does it under the guise of morality. Which makes it all the more fucked up. Good fiber intake, I hope. |
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Some vague information about the bid prices: http://www.itweb.co.za/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=135754:SecondMarket-Pantera-outbid-in-Bitcoin-auction&catid=69Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead told Reuters the firm was unable to purchase the Bitcoins because its bid was below the market price. "The point is when this auction was announced, Bitcoin was trading at $634 and the general view was that the supply would take the price down," Morehead said. https://www.finalternatives.com/node/27493....The U.S. government auction created a tremendous amount of new demand for bitcoin,” Pantera’s Dan Morehead told The New York Times. “Most of the people we spoke to were new entrants to the bitcoin market. None of our bids were hit. I think it went at quite a high price.”... http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/06/30/after-bitcoin-auction-winning-bidders-remain-elusive/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=1Mr. Waters of CoinApex, who bid as an individual, appeared to send his bid using his cellphone while live on Bloomberg Television on Friday, but later confessed in an interview that he had forgotten to attach the bidding form to his email. He submitted his bid for one block of Bitcoins, at a price of $403 each, later on Friday afternoon. He, too, did not win There is a thread about the auction results: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=668635Thanks for collecting and posting the available info. Saw the last one earlier today and thought it's particularly interesting. Assuming truthful information, we now have a price floor. Unfortunately, it's a rather low one. Which allows for the following bearish scenario: (big honking disclaimer, dear bulls: the following is not my _most likely_ scenario, just the "worst, yet still realistic outcome" I can imagine)Price made a nice jump in the last 2 days. On the day of the auction however, it was still below $600. Let's say there were a few lowballers (the $400 guys), some bids were a bit more realistic, but in the end, the winning bids were close to market price on the 27th. Let's give it 5% premium = around $620. Let's say market continues to climb, as the winning bids (or at least some of them) are revealed, among them winning bids in the $620 range. Suddenly, that, say, $675 market doesn't look that cheap anymore, considering smart money paid $620 a few days earlier. And wasn't the consensus that they'd happily pay a premium to avoid the counter party risk and slippage they'd face on the exchanges? I wouldn't expect a flash crash in that scenario, but taken together with the (technical) signs of resistance in this area, it could lead to another intermediate period of stagnation. |
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someone's got to spend some coins on Newegg
Didn't buy there in ages. Happy they take btc now, but... are they still a good place to buy hardware? |
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I think you're the first one to correctly see it. Most seem to say 'unicorn'.
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I like 80%+ of Tera's posts.
There is no need to target everyone who doesnt think btc will hit 100k in the next week. Ever super bears do not bother me if they actually mean what they say, and not just posting crap for attention (aka some people we all know, no need to name them)
Agree but thing is with TERA, while she is indeed a good trader you cant help but think bullshit every time a movement happens and she claims to be on the right side of it despite being super the other way 5 mins before. Funny you mention the other one, he actually predicted $650 1st of July, scarily accurate. How do you know he is a good trader? Everyone can say they are good at trading and make 1000% profit each day on the internet. He is a good chartist and has a very analytical way of thinking is all I can say from his posts, which doesn't automatically make him right or a good trader. Why is there so much confusion about TERA's gender? because half of the people on this forum cannot deal with the fact that a woman might be a) interested in Bitcoin, b) articulate (after all they have never actually spoken to a woman) and c) smarter than they are. lol don't forget: d) their asperger glands get rubbed the wrong way if they aren't sure if someone they're communicating with on the Internet is a man or a woman. "I demand to know your gender!". |
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I'm hoping for slow and steady. Fast enough to keep the alt market in terror of missing the run, but slow enough so that I get a couple of contract payments in the meantime. I'll stay levered 1.1x with 45% of BTC and gradually raise XMR to fill the rest of my crypto allotment while the alt markets are in terror.
The USD smackdown is killing me though. SPX keeps pumping on cheap dollars, which is bleeding me badly.
I got a bit worn out "fighting the good fight" for XMR, well, technically: against BCN in the coinmarketcap thread, where the discussion is about whether BCN should get the double-* of premine shame. Who would have thought that a 80% premine isn't actually a premine. |
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Not bad at all, congrats! Any more predictions to make you right in the future? I'm less inclined to make an unconditional statement this time because we are _right_ around a major point of resistance, and the next days will probably decide whether we break it for good this time, or play hide and seek with it some longer. That said, I see a good chance (say, 40%, maybe more) that we will be beyond the previous peak of $683 by July 20, which would almost certainly mean we're past $700 by July 20 by simple momentum, which very likely also means we'll get near or touch $800 by July 20, again by simple momentum once a major line of resistance is broken. Sorry if that's not such an exciting prediction. |
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@BitchicksHusband Let it go, man. Just by eyeballing MACD, I can already tell that during the first 6 months of 2013, b&h would perform better. Then skip forward to 2013/2014, and MACD signal is better again.
What matters are overall profits, and this entire thread is basically an invitation to backtest your own ideas. Instead, you come in here, with your "only b&h makes sense" attitude, and take cheap shots. Why not _download_ the motherf'ing program and test it for yourself?
EDIT: that said, any reason why you don't run the test over the entire trading history, let_me_backtest_that?
EDIT 2: sounded more aggressive than intended. apologies.
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Wait, we playing 'who predicted the bestest'? I'll necro this one one more time... Agreed. $600 within reach (<12h). Then: rally time to 650, maybe higher, touching 700? Then then: falling back below 640, and eventually re-testing 530. So say we all? So say we all!  Where "touching 700" ended up as $683, and "re-testing 530" as $538. Close enough, no? |
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Outperformed "buy and hold DAILY". That's not a valid measure. Nobody buys and holds daily.
AFAIK, he doesn't include slippage and fees in his calculations, so assuming no gaps between daily candles, I believe selling at candle close and buying at candle open is just his way to simulate a buy&hold strategy. It is (for the reasons mentioned above) equivalent to "real" b&h. |
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yes 5 figures in 10 years is probably a more realistic target, though thoroughly less popular an opinion.
I hold for that scenario, prepared for zero, and insured against the outrageously unlikely moon scenario. I sleep well at night.
I'd be happy with putting that one into the official Bitcoin investment brochure. |
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I keep being surprised by how well daily MACD still seems to work for this market, even after it being mentioned and discussed over and over again. In fact, I suspect during the 2013/2014 bear market it would have performed even better than in your 2012 data backtest.
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Very interesting, as before. Thanks!
"long/short" MACD strategy means on a buy signal, the system buys in with the entire account value, and on a sell signal, it sells and actively shorts? While "long" only means the system only buys and sells, without entering a margin position?
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2014-06-30
trend: down
intraday median daily price: $617
intraday daily MACD hist: 0.2
RI1 (2) = 99
RI1 (3) = 85
RI2 (1) = 60
RI2 (2) = 53
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Agreed, sgbett, there's a better chance to tackle the SMA200 today in my opinion. Still not 100% sure we're going to stay above it then in the next days. Don't underestimate the sheer weight of the preceding bear market that's still lasting on us. Could take another few attempts before we conclusively leave it behind.
re: the "bubble size" discussion... agreed, the increased awareness of btc could lead to ever increasing numbers of new users which brings in multiples of the previous "fresh fiat" amounts needed to sustain the bubble growth rate. I still don't buy it. I probably have a somewhat lower "final" valuation in mind than many, and I almost certainly think it'll take a lot longer to get there than most here (in the range of up to a generation), so there's plenty of time for that, even with declining growth rate.
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The magic monkey doesn't think we can break 600 today, wants me all-in btc on daily, weekly, monthly basis. He's been good to me so far, and I can't say I disagree.
MM is more pessimistic than me today then. Close above $613 most likely, imo. Weekly, monthly, yearly MM is more optimistic than I am, but when isn't he? |
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Sure there is: Vladimir Putin's nose twitch. Why do you think they call them slavs?
Got no one to blame for that one but myself. |
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Probably better to use candles instead of median price, and set it to show a longer history, for perspective. http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg60zigDailyztgSza1gSMAzm1g200zm2g25zxzvWe're currently below the SMA200, and it is probably a significant (moving) resistance, so breaking through form below would be bullish. But note what happened around June 1: we broke through, closed above it (i.e. one day ended while we were above -- note that closing is less important in a 24h market than in a market that actually closes, but not entirely meaningless), but fell back below it regardless. So the answer is: don't trade based on that alone. If you're interested, find some online resource (or probably better: a book) on TA, and you'll probably find moving averages as lines of resistance/support in general, and the the SMA200 in particular covered. But there is no single "magic" indicator signal you can slavically follow. If there would be such an obvious one, it would be broken through use and become unprofitable in no time. |
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