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1561  Other / Meta / Re: SMF Bookmark Mod to avoid noisy "sub" posts on: June 26, 2012, 12:34:37 PM
Why aren't people just using the email notification system? I'd like to hear the answer to this from a "subber".
Because I don't want to get emails about forum posts. I want to know about new posts when I'm reading the forum.

I'm not much of a subber myself, I have the opposite problem - often I innocently post in a thread, and then when it grows to 200 pages my watchlist keeps getting hammered with threads I'm not interested in anymore. That's why I'm using this account when I foresee a problem.

Just delete your post in that thread !

Simples ...
That doesn't work after the post is cached (or something like that). And, that's not a legitimate solution.
1562  Economy / Securities / Re: Seeking Discussion - GLBSE bonds for web hosting upgrades. on: June 26, 2012, 11:45:30 AM
Per my original post, I am not really convinced the rate of returns on many of the current GLBSE entities are sustainable.  If I thought they were, I would be dumping all of the company's cash into BTC and paying for improvements with the returns.  Too risky.  There are too many things still up in the air with Bitcoin, and it was that doubt that led me down this path.

Maybe I'm in the minority, feeling like there is room for some more stable, traditional securities?
I'm very confident the vast majority of the popular Bitcoin-related deposits are legitimate, in the sense that they will pay back every last satoshi of deposited principal.

I'm moderately confident that the interest rates which are unthinkable in traditional banking terms will stay with us for a while. Bitcoin is a whole new world, in rapid growth, full of real and perceived opportunities which honest people wish to act on. The rates might go down to the 1% weekly range and there may be a few defaults which give people pause, but there will still be very lucrative offers.

It doesn't make sense to make an offer now that is less lucrative in comparison, on the grounds that "eventually there will not be high-interest opportunities". When the opportunities dry up you can try your luck, right now people have no reason to choose you.

Members of the Bitcoin community don't have the collection infrastructure of established banks in your country, so most would not put too much weight on your company's history. So you should not expect to receive low interest rates for the smaller perceived risk.

1563  Other / Meta / Re: SMF Bookmark Mod to avoid noisy "sub" posts on: June 26, 2012, 10:45:22 AM
Why aren't people just using the email notification system? I'd like to hear the answer to this from a "subber".
Because I don't want to get emails about forum posts. I want to know about new posts when I'm reading the forum.

I'm not much of a subber myself, I have the opposite problem - often I innocently post in a thread, and then when it grows to 200 pages my watchlist keeps getting hammered with threads I'm not interested in anymore. That's why I'm using this account when I foresee a problem.
1564  Economy / Securities / Re: Seeking Discussion - GLBSE bonds for web hosting upgrades. on: June 26, 2012, 09:16:03 AM
If you're concerned about the currency risk of accepting a BTC loan with USD expenses, you can take a leveraged long BTC position. I don't think bonds tied to USD will be popular.

You'd need to pay about 2% weekly interest (280% annualized) to compete with other offerings.

Getting people to trust you with 25000 BTC won't be trivial.

I don't think GLBSE currently has a feature to message all bondholders, but they might add it sometime. I doubt it will allow you to know whether anyone is still holding their bonds.

All in all I'd say that as long as you can get loans from your bank, you'd need very good reasons to go the GLBSE route.
1565  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin-Qt / bitcoind version 0.6.3 released on: June 26, 2012, 06:54:08 AM
There are some updated translations, is it possible to include them?
1566  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Can the Block Chain get too big and make Bitcoin unworkable? on: June 25, 2012, 06:37:57 PM
Thanks everyone for the solid answers and follow-up links. I see this matter has had a lot of discussion!

Seems that trimming the block chain is a viable solution if properly implemented.

Is it correct that every transaction that happens is written to the block chain of every user?

If so this would appear to present its own bandwidth problem.

In order to be viable as a long term sustainable currency, Bitcoin ultimately needs to be able to scale to billions of transactions per day (thousands per second). Is this possible if each transaction needs to update every single block chain stored on every user's computer? (Moore's Law aside...)
As mentioned, end users will not need the entire blockchain. Just the headers and transactions that involve them specifically, which is a tiny part.
1567  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: How many bitcoins can be produced in a single day? on: June 25, 2012, 05:16:25 PM
The correct answer is: however many the developers code into the client. This can be changed, but right now we have no reason to believe it will.
The question was about how many bitcoins can be produced. If someone (be it Gavin or anyone else) releases a piece of software that generates more than 50/block + retarget for 2016=14 days, whatever it generates isn't Bitcoin.
1568  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: How many bitcoins can be produced in a single day? on: June 25, 2012, 04:52:09 PM
And just wtf does anyone think someone could actually accomplish with 51% besides a bit of harrassment with orphaned blocks from some of the other miners? A double spend? Really, what is the likelihood of 2 merchants having anything large enough to offer that it would be worthwhile to spend twice at the same time. And then what are the odds they will ship anything before they noticed the transaction disappeared?

Maybe I forgot some other nasty side affect to a short-term 51%. I assume a long term one would cause the need for a fork in order to get legit transactions reporting again. shrug.
Double-spending isn't spending to 2 merchants. It's spending to a merchant and yourself, or sending to an eWallet and yourself (e.g., send to an eWallet, wait until it is confirmed, withdraw and get some other coins, reverse the original transaction).

Or he can prevent any transaction from confirming.

>50% at the hands of a malicious entity really is pretty bad.
1569  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: The mining market balance on: June 25, 2012, 11:25:44 AM
The reward drop will impact the price even before it happens, since speculators will buy in preparation for the price increase.
What makes you think they arent already?
Never said they aren't. But the effect is likely to be strongest around the time of the actual halving.
1570  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Bitcoin-qt criticism on: June 25, 2012, 10:42:17 AM
Can you provide a screenshot where you are asked for 0.049 BTC tx fee? It shouldn't ask for more than 0.0005. Make sure you set the tx fee option in the settings to 0.

Were your addresses created on bitcoin-qt or in Bitcoin <= 0.4? Earlier version had a somewhat confusing but well-known rules for generating new addresses automatically, I don't know what policy, if any, bitcoin-qt has.

You've basically contradicted your argument with the My Wallet comment - everyone can create a wallet GUI according to their vision, and everyone can use whatever software he thinks is best.
1571  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: The mining market balance on: June 25, 2012, 09:40:33 AM
As for the reward drop; the only real argument for that to increase price is lower inflation. That may have an impact, but if it does, it will not be in January 2013.
The reward drop will impact the price even before it happens, since speculators will buy in preparation for the price increase.
1572  Economy / Currency exchange / Re: Maximizing Bitcoin Liquidity Through the Make-or-Take Model on: June 24, 2012, 01:30:48 PM
Whether the spread is the "right" spread as you call it doesn't have anything to do with what is the "fair" or "right" spread.
deego talked about a tight spread.
1573  Economy / Currency exchange / Re: Maximizing Bitcoin Liquidity Through the Make-or-Take Model on: June 24, 2012, 12:00:25 PM
The make-or-take model doesn't improve liquidity, it just gives the illusion of it.

See for example this comment where I try to explain the equivalence.
1574  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] PureMining: Infinite-term, deterministic mining bond on: June 24, 2012, 09:37:18 AM
I have issued 5000 new bonds. They are offered at 0.28 BTC each.


Most of us have heard about Butterfly Labs' announcement of an ASIC unit coming in October, producing 1 TH/s at a cost of $30K.

When I started PureMining what I had in mind was a world where mining equipment performance grows at a steady and more or less predictable rate as new technologies are developed and enter the market. The eventual advent of dedicated ASIC products was of course no secret, but I always assumed a gradual pricing strategy. People would know how much hashrate they can get for their bitcoin, and would rather substitute physical hardware purchase with a deterministic bond investment that would remove the hassle and shift some of the risks to those in the best position to evaluate them.

I did not envision a company offering a product that overnight vigintuples the available price/performance, much less a trade-in program that renders the hashrate of one company infungible with the hashrate of another company. In this scenario a deterministic bond is much less directly entangled with the underlying hardware, and much more reminiscent of a speculative instrument.

Once the dust settles PureMining will once again shine in the role it was intended for. For now there is uncertainty about BFL's ability to deliver on their promise, and given this there is no logically obvious way to price the bonds. I do however wish to increase the total count to 20000, a nice round number which matches my current capacity. I am offering new bonds at 0.28 BTC, a price which acknowledges the recent depression in the mining bond market on one hand, but avoids excessive devaluation of current investors' holdings on the other. If you believe BFL will deliver a product with the stated specifications, on time, and with sufficient production capacity, you should not buy the bond at this price. If you have no such belief you are welcome to consider this offer. I will not offer bonds at a lower price until the ASIC situation becomes clearer.

Personally I do intend to try to take advantage of BFL's trade-in program, and I may consider offering a complementary asset to those who do want to invest in its ASIC equipment.
1575  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Stratised chain-services are secure on: June 23, 2012, 09:34:53 PM
We assume this to be an independent probability.
This is a very strong assumption which I don't think is warranted.
1576  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Previous Difficulties on: June 23, 2012, 06:46:15 PM
http://blockexplorer.com/q/nethash/2016
1577  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Backup question on: June 22, 2012, 01:25:47 PM
You only need to backup wallet.dat, it's the only file with critical information.

Though, backing up the entire directory can help you get up to speed faster after a crash by removing the need to download the blockchain.
1578  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: Difficulty > 1 share adoption suggestion for pool operators. on: June 22, 2012, 12:34:12 PM
Increasing D for pooled share submissions would increase variance for miners.

The variance in time between share submissions at a constant hashrate will increase by the square of the ratio of the greater difficulty to the lesser one. Increase D from 1 to 10 and the variance of the time in between share submissions increases one hundred fold.
If true then the automatic scaling should be logarithmic rather than linear.
If anything it should be square-root, definitely not logarithmic.

If we assume the miner has a target function with linear factors for expectation and variance, his optimal difficulty doesn't depend on his hashrate, only on his net worth. If we assume his net worth is proportional to his hashrate, then the optimal difficulty grows by the square root of the hashrate.
1579  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: Difficulty > 1 share adoption suggestion for pool operators. on: June 22, 2012, 12:01:08 PM
Perhaps this is a good opportunity to review sections 7.5 and 7.6 of AoBPMRS. Having different difficulty shares for different miners is fairly straightforward from the reward method perspective.

Will be interesting to see the affect on stale shares - since each stale is worth n times what they were before.
e.g if your difficulty goes up 10 times but your stale rate doesn't go down 10 times, you lose by having a higher difficulty.
Stale rate is measured as a percentage, and as long as the percentage remains the same it doesn't matter what difficulty the share are.

And, the share difficulty should have absolutely no effect on the stale rate.
1580  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: The mining market balance on: June 22, 2012, 09:05:56 AM
The question is the $38 dollar per GH question.  My estimation is at that price BFL stands to have minimum revenue of $5 million.

Even if we assume BFL ship after the reward halving, their hardware should be able to mine almost $8M per year at todays price. If they manage to only get $5M revenue from selling, they are doing it  wrong.
This got me thinking about a different model: The glove game. BFL has the right glove and each of its potential customers has a left glove (BFL doesn't have a left glove because it doesn't want to speculate on Bitcoin). With n customers, the Shapley value for each customer is 1/(n(n+1)) of the total reward, and for BFL it is 1-1/(n+1). Meaning that with 100 customers, BFL should be getting about 99% of the reward.

Again this is highly simplified, but it does indicate that BFL may have more leverage than we'd like.
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