in my opinion, this is what happening right now as the trend of bitcoin price has been sky rocketing. what do you think affects the price increase of bitcoin today?
Mostly speculation. People are buying bitcoins and expecting to make money when they sell at a higher price. And the danger in this is that it works until it doesn't. If the only reason to buy bitcoin is to try and sell it to someone else later at a higher price, eventually one of two things happens: 1) you eventually run out of people to sell to because everyone already owns bitcoin, and with no future people to sell to, the price crashes because nobody can make a profit by holding any more; or 2) people realize that scenario one is inevitable and stop buying before everyone owns bitcoin, because the realization that the only way to make money on it is by selling it to someone else at a higher price is an investment structure that is shaped like a pyramid scheme (albeit unintentionally, but unsustainable nonetheless), and the price crashes. Either way, it seems a price crash is inevitable because Bitcoin's utility as a speculative asset comes to a definite end, and there isn't now, and likely won't be in the future, enough utility in any other use case to maintain the price. |
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Another Nobel laureate came out against Bitcoin. We're all familiar with the banking CEOs (Jamie Dimon) who have been critical of bitcoin, and it's easy for people to dismiss their criticism as coming from a party with interests they view to be directly threatened by Bitcoin. (I don't entirely buy that argument, but nonetheless...) What should be more concerning is the people who have won Nobel prizes in economics voicing concern over the sustainability of Bitcoin's price. Yesterday, Noble laureate Joseph Stiglitz said bitcoin should be outlawed. (Reckless statement IMO.) However, today, none other than Robert Shiller said that Bitcoin was destined to crash, and this is a much bigger deal because of who Robert Shiller is and his work. Robert Shiller's line of economic work deals specifically with the prediction of asset prices and the inefficiency of markets. Mr. Shiller's work lead to the establishment of the Case-Shiller Index which is used to value home prices in the US, and Mr. Shiller famously warned about the dotcom bubble and the housing bubble before anyone recognized they were bubbles. Here he is in 2005 warning that housing was a bubble detached from economic reality, and that it was destine to crash: https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4679264. Here's one key passage where he is talking about the housing bubble, and see if this doesn't sound exactly like Bitcoin right now:  So yesterday, Shiller said this exactly about Bitcoin: "Bitcoin, it’s just absolutely exciting. You’re fast. You’re smart. You’ve figured out nobody else understands. You’re with it. And bitcoin has this anti-government, anti-regulation feel. It’s such a wonderful story. If it were only true. ... I don’t know where it’s going to stop. It’s going to go way up, like the stock market in the 1920s. We will reach a 1929 eventually. But then it won’t go to zero, it just will come down." This is one guy who when he says something is a bubble, people ought to listen. So? He directly states he does not know when this is going to stop, so his prediction as always is as good as anyone else's prediction, we all know that once a bubble starts at some point it needs to burst, to have a Nobel prize his predictions are awfully vague, besides to stock market of 1929 eventually recovered, bitcoin is not going to disappear so for all of us that are holders we do not care if the bubble burst or not. HA! Robert Shiller's prediction is worth quite a bit more than "anyone else's". You don't win a Nobel for making predictions though, you make it for the economic field work you do. In this case, because of his line of work (the study of how people's inability to accurately value assets leads to inefficient markets and bubbles), his predictions about an asset being a bubble is noteworthy. The key isn't to predict when a bubble is going to pop, it's to identify when something is a bubble. If you know something is a bubble, and you know it's inevitable that all bubble's burst, it makes sense to conserve your capital now. You may think you're missing upside by selling early, but thinking you can identify when the bubble will burst and get out beforehand is a fool's game. You'll lose much more on the burst bubble than by selling before it burst. Also, thinking that because a bubble burst, it has to go back up eventually is going to burn a lot of people. There's no such certainty in economics or the real world. |
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The electric cars impact on oil industry will be bad if all of the people will using it. Certainly the price of the oil will go down. But around the world more people are using oil not just for the vehicle but also use for cooking. There is an little effect but the electric cars cannot stop the oil industry.
I don't know too many people cooking with crude oil! But even if you mean to operate ovens or stoves, I can't imagine that to constitute a large portion of oil consumption. Transportation is the largest use of oil, and switching to electric vehicles will absolutely impact world oil production and oil price. However, it's a necessary change, and the detriments will be made up for by the benefits. When oil is no longer important, the Middle East will have that much less importance, and the United States can stop meddling in their religious wars and let them try to sort that hot mess out themselves. |
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Are you kidding? I've been worried ever since Bitcoin set off unfettered past the $4,500 mark! I'm still waking up most days wondering if it'll be the day I login to see Bitcoin back at that price. And when it did threaten to touch 9k, I thought that was really it. But here we are... The problem is that people buying at 25k are doing so only because they have the belief that there will be other people in the future who will buy those coins off them for more. This is why people say bitcoin is a ponzi, it requires ever more people buying at ever higher prices in order for the price not to crash. Fundamentally, I agree with this concept with the added caveat that a ponzi is intentional deception, and bitcoin is not. This is an important distinction, bitcoin operates like a ponzi without the intention of being one.
Exactly! All the bubble symptoms are there, yes, we're (I am) happy Bitcoin hasn't run out of steam, and it probably won't because every single day, someone is asking me now how to buy Bitcoin, or has told me they've already bought some, and some are preparing to go into it. I'm at a loss really at what to say, suddenly friends are poking me asking why I didn't tell them to jump in earlier. I fear for all of them, but when they're enjoying profits within days and weeks, hard to put a brake on that. Basically, there is a steady stream of new Bitcoin buyers and this is going to up the price for a very long period. The correction... I can't predict it any longer. I've had people asking me as well, and I've told them all the same thing. I haven't bought any in years because I've been worried about the price and the mania surrounding it. The mania is everyone's unreasonable expectations. I tell people who ask, I'm not a buyer right now, and probably won't be again, because if the price crashes and reaches a sustainable level and actually becomes useful as a currency, it's no longer an investment asset because all it does is maintain value, not appreciate in value. I don't currently see any circumstances where I am a buyer of Bitcoin again. The only potential opportunity I see now is if a crypto comes along with better tech or innovations and has the potential to displace Bitcoin. That would make it a (speculative) buy. |
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The drop was certainly big enough to catch everyone's attention, and the reason behind that can never be known as there are a lot of things that can cause such a thing. Like panic sell, FUDs, negative talks and many more. Now any of these things can cause a price drop if it occurs anytime in the community. But to be honest, they all happened in the past as well, but this time the drop was really big. It frightened the hell out of me when i saw a post about it in twitter  It is really hard to see the price going down in such a short time. Not really everyone, that will be depending on what rate your Bitcoin was purchased. Falling back to $8k+ or 9 is not much a problem, every reduction is like an opportunity for people to buy-in quickly, and I believe there are people who did that during the flash fall. As of recently, price is back up to $10,533, and might be back to $11000 by tomorrow. It certainly recovered and then some. However the manner in which this entire market is operating does not give me any confidence that this price level is sustainable for the long term, or even more worryingly, not a massive bubble that's going to crash on us. Unlike a flash crash in which things drop fast and recover quickly, a bubble bursting is a fast crash without the recovery. That's the definition of a bubble, and how you define it: an unsupportable price level that finally gives way and doesn't have the support to recover because it was irrational at that previous level. |
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I don't know what to say on this effect but it's like and the price is going up the peoples are getting more interested in Bitcoin. Even from my locality many people have requested they want to know about Bitcoin, so I think Bitcoin is being adopted more frequently in all over the world and with this page I think we can cross $10,000 in around 2 years.
Without the massive price appreciation, most people would not be interested. The people buying bitcoin aren't buying because they think it's a system that is better than fiat or the USD, but because they view it as a system for acquiring more fiat in a fast and risk-free manner. The price appreciation has made people irrational. So you're right, the price going up is getting more and more people interested, and it's the wrong type of people because of the reason they're getting interested. In addition, those kind of people who are in it for a fast and risk-free manner and also the same people who are going to immediately sell bitcoin in case their is a price dip. The mindset that bitcoin is a quick rich scheme is very wrong from the beginning. And as far as a market crash, its certain to happen, but no one knows when. Still the price today is above $8100 which is very strong still. And we are holding it and the crash to $7500 has never occurred. The only thing that will make bitcoin and any market to really crash is that a negative news or an attack to the bitcoin ecosystem. But as always, sometimes we really need some market correction to go to the next level. Agreed, but there's no question now that the major parts of this market hold this mentality. Utility of bitcoin, adoption, or the technology of the blockchain don't mean anything to people who are just speculating on the asset price and helping to drive the wild price swings. It's even bleeding out into the traditional market where companies are changing their names to include the word "blockchain" and seeing their stock price double in a week (like Riot Blockchain, which is a garbage company that was a failed biotech and now has doubled this week alone because they changed their name to Riot Blockchain). Blockchain is the new dot com. We are definitely in a bubble, and it's not confined only to the Bitcoin price itself. |
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I care about the poor first. The "1 billion people live on less than US$1.25 a day" is impactful.
But even more important is the solution, how do we fix this? Basic necessities, then jobs. And after that, increase wages and living standards. Basic should be done first.
The role of political stability cannot be understated as a factor leading to economic prosperity. In a lot of developing nations, an unstable and downright corrupt government really inhibits economic opportunities and economic growth. A fair society based on civil rights, property rights, and economic freedom are not easy to implement, but are the essential first step to to address economically underdeveloped areas of the world. After that, you can address jobs and standards of living, but those alone won't go far without a stable foundation to build them on. |
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He may be correct but at the same time it does not even matter. As the last point states it will come crashing down but it won't go to zero it will go back after that. Bitcoin is here to stay people need to understand this. Also do take a look at the biggest bubble in the world which is real estate right now. 500 trillion is a lot for one market but you don't hear mainstream media talking about this bubble...I wonder why that is  Well just as a musing, I would say it's because bubbles aren't defined by notional value, they're defined by valuation and a disconnectedness from their fundamentals. So the size of the housing market in absolute dollars doesn't tell you anything about whether or not it's a bubble. We only knew 2008 was a bubble by taking housing prices and comparing them to other metrics that showed prices were getting out of hand. Also, if he is correct, that is all that matters. You're so in the bubble mentality you don't even realize how irrational your expectations are. When bubbles pop, they don't automatically go back up some undetermined amount of time later. That's the point of the bubble popping. If this bubble pops, you may not see these price levels again until years down the line, when inflation has increased the price of all assets. At that point, you're not back to where you are now, you're worse off because everything in the economy is more expensive. |
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If you ask what is more profitable and safe then there is 2 different answers for that. For investment that is more profitable in the long run it would be Bitcoin. Because of its booming adaption of our society and the increasingly awareness of the cryptocurrencies then it would drive the prices of these specially Bitcoin upwards. It has many edge with its counterpart and have the accesibility and security advantage. As for safer investment, it would be stock market. Here, we invest in a publicly listed company which is a stable and have an outstanding records of growth year per year. Though it has smaller returns compare to Bitcoin in the long run, but it is more stable and have a real company that backed up your investment. If you want to maximize your earnings then I suggest to invest in both to at least diversify your investment.
The old adage that past performance is no guarantee of future results is apt here. Anyone buying bitcoin at $15,000 per coin and expecting to get rich or go to the moon or whatever other nonsense is setting themselves up for disappointment. At the present valuation, it's not likely and possibly not even possible to see the same returns going forward. The law of large numbers is in play. As for what is safer, no question it is the stock market. Stocks represent ownership in a company that produces something of value. Bitcoin is merely an asset and it is not worth more or less than what everyone agrees it is worth. That arbitrariness is a huge risk. |
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Many of us here are hoping to be successful miners/campaigners or anything realated to BTCitcoin. Some people succeed many people failed. With that said, what are the biggest changes in your life since you started bitcoin? I hope these will inspire other people so that we too can be successful. Thank you very much!
I taught myself how to mine in 2013 and dabbled with it for a couple years. I was never going to put any money into a mining effort though because I quickly realized that if you couldn't invest tens (or more likely hundreds) of thousands of dollars, you were never going to be competitive enough to reliably make a return because mining was too competitive and increased in difficulty too quickly. And that's entirely too much risk for an asset that was slowly fading in price at the time to put that kind of money into it. I mostly just learned because I liked knowing something that other people didn't understand or didn't know how to figure out. By the time I got into it, it was already too late to "get rich" in crypto without considerable risk. You had to be mining from the very early days to even have a chance to get your hands on coins in any quantity easily. I just wasn't that aware. |
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Do people still think Bitcoin is dead? It had been on the verge and above every digital currency. It is not deaf and it is alive and kicking. Bitcoin can't be stopped and the nexy destination is to the moon.
The only thing that ought to be dead at this point is this thread. Bitcoin is above $15,000 for a week and there's no valid argument to be made in this old thread that bitcoin is "dead." The question has been definitively answered. However, believing that bitcoin is still going to the moon, as opposed to already being on the moon, is going to cost a lot of people money in the future. The problem is essentially people buy into hype without any regard for reality, and people wouldn't recognize when bitcoin has "reached the moon." For all anyone knows, this is it and it's already happened. If you're still buying in expecting to get rich at this price, good luck but I think you're a fool. |
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I'm assuming most would have read, watched and some probably experienced divorce proceedings. It's certainly not a pretty thing, especially when it's a nasty one. Now, the question is do you reveal your BTC wallet address when undergoing proceedings or do you simply keep shtum. Or maybe you have been careless enough to let your spouse know about your crypto dealings. Do you willingly part with the nice rising BTC or do you offer to pay up in Fiat? This post is merely for fun, 'I AM NOT MARRIED' Question isn't any different from any traditional bank account. If you live in a common law state, the money presumably is a shared asset and you are legally required (if not also morally required) to split the asset the same as any other. The "nastiness" of the divorce has no merit. Cleary, the question as to whether you "should" divulge it already acknowledges the requirement, otherwise there wouldn't be any question about it. At that point, it's only a question of whether or not you're low enough to hide assets in contravention of the law. If you'd hide a bank account, I imagine there's no distinction to be made for a crypto asset as well. |
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I don't want to seem negative. I'm trying to avoid political discussion.  I would only like to say a case could be made for nobel prizes being a political tool for bankers. Paul Krugman has supported many questionable and controversial economic policies over the years as a nobel prize winner in economics. There are some who question whether Al Gore should have won a nobel peace prize for a presentation on global warming. Barack Obama winning a nobel peace prize did raise a few eyebrows, years ago. It is possible that nobel prizes are given out to those who push political agendas, rather than those who merit it. There used to be excellent scientists and economists like Milton Friedman who deserved a nobel prize. These days, it might be fair to say the quality of work awarded a nobel isn't what it used to be, unfortunately. Criticism of the Nobel process notwithstanding, I do think Shiller's pedigree speaks for itself. As fuzzy as economics is as a science, Shiller's work has been more concrete in the relationship between asset prices and the inefficiency of markets, correlating people's inability to predict reasonable asset prices to the cause of bubbles. As with the housing bubble, he identified that it was a bubble long before other folks (he was talking about it in 2005, two years before it became evident to others who "called" it before completely coming off the rails in 2008). What concerns me is how similar his descriptions are to Bitcoin to how he talked about the housing bubble. |
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It depends what you mean by correction, for me as long as we stay around 8k, it's not a big correction ,just a normal fluctuation of the trend
The healty market is always correction and market capitalized to continue to grow up many people by profit and interest into the crypto market where traders make a huge profit but special for bitcoin it not will happen in my opinion. Traders have a good margin still to make profit if we believe bitcoin will reach 25 or 50k, at the end, everyone wants bitcoin that high , especially biggest traders who are on the market since years The problem is that people buying at 25k are doing so only because they have the belief that there will be other people in the future who will buy those coins off them for more. This is why people say bitcoin is a ponzi, it requires ever more people buying at ever higher prices in order for the price not to crash. Fundamentally, I agree with this concept with the added caveat that a ponzi is intentional deception, and bitcoin is not. This is an important distinction, bitcoin operates like a ponzi without the intention of being one. |
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BTC dropped. BCH dropped, ETH dropped. Here is my theory on this guys.
There is a few individuals on the live exchanges at the moment who are profit chasing by 20 dollars. For example. Loads of people will buy up to $10,000, soon as it hits $10,000 or a specific set number. You will see a massive number of sell rather than buy, but some will be still buying. Is it the new hedge fund guys getting in on it?
You think Bitcoin is down because you're comparing it to Government currency, you fail to realize that Cryptos operate under their own economy, it has its own financial ecosystem and global financial market. It's rising value is based on market adoption that constitutes its technological use. It's a very easy concept. The more people join the network, transact with Bitcoin, accept Bitcoin as payment for services, store Bitcoin away to Hodle the larger the network grows. There's more fiat currencies in circulation than there are Bitcoins, there are more people than there are Bitcoins. The current price of one Bitcoin in Us dollars is a sign that you should probably exit the fiat currency system soon or at least within the next 2 - 3 years. Bitcoin is not a hedge fund, a bond, or a mutual fund. Those type of paper instruments can be reissued as they only exist within the Keynesian Economic system. Bitcoin is similar to a very rare and scarce stone that has no other choice but to increase in value due to its intrinsically scarce nature and that is what you call Austrian Economics; it's a feature not a bug. Rarity doesn't make something valuable, utility does. I'm not sold on the concept Bitcoin will retain the current level of value once the current mania wears off. There are an increasing number of suitable replacements in crypto that do a better job of being Bitcoin than Bitcoin does. The main concern for a Bitcoin holder isn't whether crypto will continue to prove useful, but whether Bitcoin specifically will. And Bitcoin's value is down, because it is priced in USD and everything else is priced in USD too. When Bitcoin's value drops in USD, it's not just in comparison to government currency, it's in relation to literally everything, so that's not an accurate rebuttal. |
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Another Nobel laureate came out against Bitcoin. We're all familiar with the banking CEOs (Jamie Dimon) who have been critical of bitcoin, and it's easy for people to dismiss their criticism as coming from a party with interests they view to be directly threatened by Bitcoin. (I don't entirely buy that argument, but nonetheless...) What should be more concerning is the people who have won Nobel prizes in economics voicing concern over the sustainability of Bitcoin's price. Yesterday, Noble laureate Joseph Stiglitz said bitcoin should be outlawed. (Reckless statement IMO.) However, today, none other than Robert Shiller said that Bitcoin was destined to crash, and this is a much bigger deal because of who Robert Shiller is and his work. Robert Shiller's line of economic work deals specifically with the prediction of asset prices and the inefficiency of markets. Mr. Shiller's work lead to the establishment of the Case-Shiller Index which is used to value home prices in the US, and Mr. Shiller famously warned about the dotcom bubble and the housing bubble before anyone recognized they were bubbles. Here he is in 2005 warning that housing was a bubble detached from economic reality, and that it was destine to crash: https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4679264. Here's one key passage where he is talking about the housing bubble, and see if this doesn't sound exactly like Bitcoin right now: So yesterday, Shiller said this exactly about Bitcoin: "Bitcoin, it’s just absolutely exciting. You’re fast. You’re smart. You’ve figured out nobody else understands. You’re with it. And bitcoin has this anti-government, anti-regulation feel. It’s such a wonderful story. If it were only true. ... I don’t know where it’s going to stop. It’s going to go way up, like the stock market in the 1920s. We will reach a 1929 eventually. But then it won’t go to zero, it just will come down." This is one guy who when he says something is a bubble, people ought to listen. |
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This is a normal reaction on the market. It happens from time to time. Small investors panicked and sold. They thought there was no more room for growth.
That coupled with the fact that many new investors probably got greedy and tried to ride the wave higher thinking bitcoin would hit 15k by year up or something. To be honest though this is nothing and I kinda am laughing at how many people are freaking out over a normal correction. When I would start to think things are going bad is around price point 7k but we are not close to that yet so please lets not panic guys . I would hardly call anything that drops 20% and then almost immediately recovers a "normal correction." I wouldn't even call that a correction. A correction denotes that the previously unsupportable price has fallen to the "correct" sustainable price level. If it recovers almost all the drop, no correction be said to have taken place, because you're essentially back where you were to start: the unsustainable price level. So if your thesis is that a correction is due, you cannot call a low that lasted less than an hour a correction that has solved the issue. |
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FLASH is the proper description for it but no panic Bitcoin is back on track.
I think we are going to see this far more regularly. Someone posted in a
different thread that as the price gets higher the volatility will increase......
or something of that nature.
isn't it just the opposite? The larger the marketcap the lower the volatility? because you need more and more money to even influence said coin. I think generally this is true, but it should be cause for alarm that as large as btc's marketcap is, it can still crash 25% in a matter of hours. It's a lot harder to cause massive price spikes the larger it gets, but I think it is always easier to have volatility in a downward trajectory. I see that unconfirmed transactions has spiked to around 100k, so I wonder if that has anything to do with the flash crash. It seems the network is under spam attack again, with wildly higher transactions than is typical. |
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In this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUjEuifWIV4The author points out that bitcoin’s price rise is mainly due to retail investors getting into the market without caring about the fundamentals of the asset they are buying. They just buy because the asset has risen, and they believe it will keep going, thus making money for them. This is especially easy nowadays where the masses can invest low amounts easily. He compares this recent rise with the bubble in Shanghai Composite back in 2015. This can lead to strong pullbacks when institutional investors start to sell but he emphasizes that he is not trying to create FUD. I’ve found it quite interesting because we usually talk about the big whales and the effect they can have but we don’t talk so much about all the small retail investors buying almost by faith and how they can affect the price. What do you think? What fundamentals? Bitcoin is a commodity, and I'm unfamiliar with any fundamentals for a commodity other than supply and demand. It's not like a business where you can analyze the valuation based on the business's ability to generate profit or sales, it's simply an asset that doesn't generate any income. As such, it's hard to argue that any person buying or selling bitcoin is doing so based on the fundamentals, because supply is perfectly transparent, and demand is the only real unknown variable. One thing for certain though, it seems demand is highly susceptible to herd mentality, and that it is in a sort of mania phase. That's not good for the sustainability of this price level. |
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Does this current bullish cycle not worry anyone? Most people that know how markets work know that healthy markets need to correct to continue growing. The current bullish cycle is larger than the first and second one, where we saw some nasty corrections, meaning things could get real dirty, real soon. Market cap has increased from $250B to $310B within 7 days. I want to know what people think.  https://gyazo.com/d0acc37f197a677ac4752650c7e94e77It looks like a bubble, so yeah, I'm worried about the price level. Today there was a flash crash where btc fell over 24% in about 4 hours. It rebounded quickly as well, though still off the intraday high by about 10%. The volatility has been crazy, and such dramatic price swings (in either direction) don't provide any confidence that this is sustainable or rational. Watching order book data on gdax in real time, there's no doubt algorithm's are driving trading, and I have to believe they are fine-tuned to profit off volatility and to drive or manufacture that in order to capitalize off it. That doesn't do anything to assuage my concern that the current price level is artificially high, given that it was likely driven to this point by computers, and there will be nothing to sustain it once it begins to fall. Everyone treats bitcoin like its rise is inevitable, and nothing in the real world works that way. That's mania, and a sure sign of a bubble. |
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