TwinWinNerD- Really? I've found that (with the exception of when the China ban thing happened) it almost never predicts the wrong direction of movement. It might predict the wrong direction if it, for example, says the price will go up by $2 but it ends up going down by $2 instead, which would be less than 1% error. For pretty much all of the major price changes I've watched it predict against, it's gotten the direction of movement correct but often overestimates the magnitude. There has been one or two instances where it predicted for the price to move up or down and it pretty much stayed the same, but I have not seen it predict a price change of more than like 2% where the actual price ended up moving in the opposite direction (except right after the China ban).
two things here, one, the market numbers you are looking at, people speculating are also looking at, and I think are expecting things to happen so they are reducing the effect, by acting on this information, I have noticed that the market seems to swing back and forth between strong change and weak ones, and figure this is because people can see about a day or two back on the charts for the exchange they are on, so they are trying to play on that and cause it to not work, two: you might ask the more important question, since it seems that it can change differently depending on the market you are on at the moment lol, so what market was twinwinerd looking at, and what all market data are you churning with your program? |
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Quantum mechanics tells us that things are random. Even if you could chart every particle in the universe, you could not predict everything. Although, you can find likely outcomes.
Haha I was waiting for someone to bring up quantum mechanics. I feel like that's the only legitimate argument you can make against what I said. I don't understand enough about quantum mechanics to really discuss this, but from what I've heard from people who actually study it and know a decent amount about it (nobody knows "a lot" about quantum mechanics) all of the things about randomness are still pretty theoretical or just not well understood. It's a very interesting subject, but regardless it doesn't conflict with my point that bitcoin prices are NOT random. You should check out "Through the Wormhole", they spend a lot of time on the subject. Basically if you shoot a electron through a solid flat surface it would leave more then one hole. Unless you were observing it. May as well be magic, to our generation at least. We might just be living inside the matrix, that's just a glitch in the program.. um what? pretty sure the original experiment was that they had two slits and they shot them through each causing a wave patter to appear much like spectrum lines from light passing through slits causing "banding" and when "observed" they stopped behaving like a "wave" and went back to behaving like a "particle" and just made two "piles" on either side, much the way sand pouring through two holes would cause two piles of sand on the other side, I can tell you it is not "observation" that causes this, and the secret to figuring out how this oddity is occurring you just need to know HOW they were "observing" the action, since it was not with a human eye, and no human ever had to look at what was recorded to effect the outcome that can be seen as an after effect with out looking at it. the effect on the outcome was the same either way lol. it amazes me how little people really understand about things and how they hear chinese whispers about things and then just take it all literally, instead of going to the source and looking hard at the data. the market is not random, that is for sure, there are events that cause things to occur, but knowing what to expect is going to take more than looking at the numbers each time, you need to look at spikes and then look at real events that tailor peoples lives, and see if there is a correlation, then see if the event has a pattern (like the fourth of july that happens here in the USA as a holiday where people blow lots of money on food fireworks and partying, to realize that people may cash out to do so, causing a crash, and then afterwards the market can repair itself as people go back to having just as much burden on their wallets as they did before things happened, sudden windfalls that happen say yearly will have significant effect on things, but not always, so you have to calculate all new changes and how they effect people negatively or positively, and your neural network at this point I am gathering can not do that, but when it can, then we will not see an unstable market anymore, unless you with hold that and use it to make millions lol. |
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Human behavior is not totally unpredictable. Especially given large numbers of humans.
I got chills, man. That sounded like Hari Seldon talking there. lol that is exactly what I was thinking too when I first saw this thread and what he was trying to do XD |
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And then of of course you get to the discussion of which regulations make sense and that is a very very broad discussion because there are people on both sides (guess on which side the big corps are..).
The pro-regulation side? That's way too easy an answer. They are definitely on the anti-regulation side. But the situation is that there are regulations. So their NEW strategy is to bend the regulations to their will. Which is bad. So, as i said before, regulations are still nessesary, but we need to keep them in check. One of the biggest problems in the western world is that we let our governments be bribed (lobbied) by these corporate entities. This is fundamentaly a wrong way of doing it. It's not that regulations are bad, they are simply not used well. Still, i don't think there will be happy times without any regulations at all. It is a teenage fantasy to think it could work. wow look at all the black and white answers, sorry but it is not so cut and dried, the people against regulations are those who are held back by them, those who are for them are the ones that the regulations protect their businesses so they don't have to keep innovating to keep on top of the game, so they can slack off, so you have corporations and people on both sides of this fence in every area of the world, and that group of people keeps churning based on those that were on one side and having trouble, who succeed on busting through that line and get to the side where the regulations now protect them from the hungry masses that will out innovate them, with out the regulations, so the ones supporting the regulations are those protected with them, and the faces on both sides keep changing, as they move from that one side to the other. as for any utopia that the zeitgiest people are seeking (and the venus project) we will not see anything like this no matter what is done until technology can provide it. we will just end up with 1984, another soviet union, or another Nazi Germany, where the masses are again held down against their will by those with guns to keep them doing all the work the people with the guns don't want to do, while not having to pay the masses for this dirty work. to achieve a truly free society we need a damn near anarcho-capitalist system that is more liberating than libertarianism in the extreme brought on by the lack of control over people by their holding technology that totally frees them, and is understood by even the lowest common denominator. The computer does for data what we need to be able to do with resources as common as the carbon in the lawn clippings in your lawn, enabling you to, with the click of a mouse button, have a device break it down and extract all that carbon, then send it to another device (all probably the size of something sitting on a desk top) to be reconstructed into any form needed to complete the task of making what the clicker wanted, such as say a new phone made of various carbon based plastics, carbon based seminconductors and non conductors to make their items they want and need (food, tech, medicine, transportation, clothing) from stuff they don't want anymore and today we pay someone to take away for us so we dont have to see it anymore. and we will not see an end to money till we have a triad of tech, an energy from something abundant, a way to convert materials in things no one wants anymore, into something usable, and a tech that lets us turn that usable material into the goods we want, all using files and data that people do not have to understand to use. Very few can build or understands how a phone is made for the most part, yet they are used by most of what we consider the civilized world, and we will need something that can basically allow sharing of information that is compiled already to get over that hurdle for the average joe, then we can start talking resource based economy, or basically where resources are the money of the day. Carbon no matter what form it is in, is worth just as much as it would be in a diamond, and diamonds would only be worth the carbon in them, at that point since we could just print out diamond objects any shape we want. |
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oh forgot to mention for any one interested in PCB production *printed circuit boards* that the sodium hydroxide from table salt can also produce ferric chloride or just plain chlorine gas for various uses like bubbling it through toluene to make benzoyal chloride (needed to make benzoyal peroxide that is then used for converting ether made from alcohol into polyethylene UHMW *Ultra High Molecular Weight* the stuff used for making better bullet proof fiber than even Kevlar, as it is 6 times stronger and completely impervious to many chemical reactions and such that Kevlar will break down if exposed to, I have also used it to make bearings that are much better than anything else out there, other than the highest grade roller bearings and works wonders as a lead nut in CNC milling equipment, making it possible to build most of the CNC equipment that we would need to start making the really high end stuff that only comes from major manufacturing in china as of right now.
Again, anyone interested??? Beuler?
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I'm thinking that eventually bitcoin will stand on its own. That is, you don't so much trade bitcoin for dollars and then dollars for bitcoin. Rather you earn bitcoin through your job or business and then spend them for the stuff you need and want - the people on the receiving end then spend the bitcoins and round and round it goes, no dollars needed.
As the bitcoin economy grows, each bitcoin will buy an increasing amount of stuff - its value is increasing because of its limited nature. But you never run out because bitcoins can be divided into tens of thousands of units. Perhaps one day 1/1000th of a bitcoin could purchase what one full bitcoin does today.
this is kinda what I am angling for by working on getting a community of people making something tangible that they have little to no money invested in making, just labor so we can start building a community that stands on crypto currency only. possibilities are endless from making common lye used for making bio diesel to a number of other things like paper, to ferric chloride, both from table salt, using cheap ugly but still new and powerful solarcells that can cost as little as 14 cents per watt they output. I have found a way to extend the useful life of a solar cell too for anyone interested so you can either expand how long you can use them up to 5 times longer, or concentrate more light (reflectors made of anything but I plan on using MDF and aluminum foil) so you get 5 times more power RIGHT NOW but the lifespan is only as long as they are normally with out protection, thus you can get that value out of them faster rather than having to wait to get it. There are tons of other things out there too that we can make at home easily if we only knew how to, so it is all down to figuring that out, and developing the skill set to allow the production and investing our spare time to do it for bitcoin or some other alt currency, instead of dollars or yuan  would be nice to figure out what our hourly time is actually work in a sort of community like that and use that to base our value on the bitcoin we collect for our work, and we can be more flexible too by charging bitcoin for the products, and dollars (if you are in the USA) for shipping or something, till we have some people join the community that can and are willing to provide shipping for bitcoin. |
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add to all the good replies here, the fact that the world currencies other than the dollar are also inflating their quantities of currency in unison for the most part so it makes everything look hunky dory, so prices dont go up much. (ie the price of the dollar vs the price of the yuan, or the euro, is some what stable due to them making more euros and yuan at about the same rate as the dollar, keeping everyone thinking the value of the money they hold has not changed, and that is all fiat is, perception of value, just like bitcoin. the only two things different about bitcoin over fiat that really matters at this point, is that you can not easily counterfeit it, and the banks don't get first crack at it making the rest of the world come begging for a dole out of it. with bitcoin (and other crypto) the people make it a reality, so really we should work much harder to build an all crypto community system by learning skills that we can use to produce goods in exchange for crypto, and nothing else. only use fiat for things that we can not get with crypto like shipping (anyone up for building a network of transportation to do this? lol)
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Nothing is dying, the Bitcoin hashrate is going up  So enjoy the price if your buyer, and hate the price if your seller Yes, enjoy the price if you are a buyer, and hate the price only if selling is a real emergency. Panic will only prologue the situation for a few weeks but anyway this low rate will not last. It depends mostly on how many people are out there waiting for "a good price to buy" (because they are a lot of them now) and what is that price. many of those people are watching the price and when it starts going up they will jump on it. this is why it bubbles like crazy. the more people think "crap waited a bit to late better buy now before it goes any higher" the higher it goes. lol. it will all be stopping at the top due to people running out of money, nothing more, so these bubbles often happen when people have excess cash for one reason or another. take a look at your own funds, when is the next time you will have a bump in money (or normally would each year if you are having a bad year, and wont this time, expect others will and plan on selling around that time to get some money, but hold on till then, if you can at all ) |
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@Skilo I hope you read that properly because they admit they can not afford to audit hardly anyone, so they only end up auditing businesses and such, so you as a buyer of bitcoin to make a profit off it, or using it to purchase with it to get a better leverage (buy bitcoin low and then spend it when it is worth more) don't have to report it, just do not get caught is the issue and since they can not track bitcoin wallets for squat, heck they can not track regular purchases with dollars for jack, then the only thing you have to worry about balancing on your taxes would be vehicle purchases medical bill payments, and real estate acquisitions. anything else you have a better chance of winning the lottery with out buying a ticket than you do getting audited and caught making a profit off bitcoin. and nothing says you have to cash out your coins. there are tons of market options where you can cash out when they are high and stand on a stable currency value like yuan till the market deflates then buy back in for more bitcoin than ever and wait for it to inflate in value again, to sell out once more lol. I do believe it is deflating the purchases of bitcoin, but it is because people are not aware or not willing to gamble with those incredibly stacked in your favor odds against the IRS, is all. to bad for them, cause there are enough that are that it will still spring back some I suspect. This is where anyone reading what I have to say, would benefit, do with your taxed income this: Claim exempt. invest all money you would have had withheld on taxes otherwise, on something you can liquidate at the end of the year or start a home business with it that if it fails (ie you dont have as much to pay your taxes as you would have paid) you can claim it as a loss on your taxes and avoid paying them anyway. if your business involves a computer and power usage, as well as part of your home you can claim all that off on your taxes come the end of the year should they actually show up to do an audit (most are done by phone or email and are not nearly as invasive as people think, again unless you are a major business lol) so as it stands you get to keep your tax money and spend it on stuff you would probably want anyway, and maybe end up with a new form of income for the new year |
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I suppose the TL:DR of this is, is anyone interested in either learning or applying a skill set that will allow us to make stuff that normally has to be purchased with fiat currency to be sold only in the crypto community and only charge fiat for what we can not break free of, so even to the point of making our own fuels and eventually setting up our own shipping that is purchasable through crypto currency at that point. again message me if you are in talking about what we need to do and what we each can put toward this goal of a completely crypto community.
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Ok so I have been in the area of converting waste products into usable components and you can see a bit of it in the open air case I have photos of *that I am working on now* here. the rail that the video cards are resting on is part of an LCD TV that was discarded from around the screen,  and have turned sheet lexan clear material into prescription lenses (working on a way to make them for others based on their exam info but that will be a bit off from now) and have made lye (sodium hydroxide) from table salt, as part of the steps toward a process to turn waste vegetation into crude oil (yes crude oil like the stuff they make gasoline out of) So the question is can we build an economy that is independent of fiat currency, at least other than shipping costs and if we get taxed, the fiat to cover the shipping and taxes (most shipping of items bought outside the state are not taxed by that state, at least in OK, a list of other states that do this as well would be a good idea. as well as how this work in other countries too) I have read also of people turning microwave ovens into smelters for melting down iron ore to refine it, and smelting it to pour into molds, so anyone seriously interested in any area of production from raw goods to finished goods, recycling and upcycling should be posting their thoughts and interests here in the thread, If we get enough interest one of us can start up a website and forum specifically for this, (or maybe they can start one up here just for talking and sharing help and advice on this here in the economy section?) |
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At the end of March 2014 , the price will skyrock to 800 USD , mark my words , there is something big comming ..
nice, you seeing what I am seeing around the 15th of april? lol **edit Just to be clear I see how he "fixD" the OP's original post lol. so don't hate. |
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how serious are you about being free, are you just using this as a gimmick to get people to buy from you, or are you very very serious about it, if you are incredibly serious and would like a way to break free of the fiat price system let me know, anyone else that is interested in this should also contact me. being a tool maker and resource processing buff, I can definitely help on that and have been working on a way to break free of it for some time, but so far only myself and a few others I have helped are partially independent of this system. (I made my own prescription glasses out of flat lexan sheet, to give you some idea of how serious I am lol.)
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@pontiacg5 I will be giving that DXF file a shot, looks like from a print out that it is going to work, will modify it too a bit to make a G-code file if anyone is interested in one for cutting bases to mount mother boards to on a CNC mill though I am going to be using an 1/8th inch end mill for all cuts and 7/64ths drill bit for the standoffs so they can be tapped afterwards for the MOBO mounting standoffs. If anyone needs it adjusted for 1/4" endmill maybe since I am doing centerline cuts and adjusting the file (off by .0625 outside direction of cut) you would need me to adjust it by .125 outside direction of cut for that 1/4" endmill *most router CNC set ups have a 1/4" collect option only, I can go down to 1/16" inch on mine since I have a rotozip and the collets are very simple to make my own here to any diameter I need on a lathe.)
anyway enough CNC talk lol
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thanks will have a look |
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