Prediction: Breaking $500 within 24 hours

[twiifm]

Describe what you are doing and ill tell you if human is better or not.   HFT does not predict.   HFT front run orders and capture the spread.   It can do this better humans cause it can do it faster.   

But humans program it to do this.

I dont know if a machine can find patterns better than humans.    Give me a real world example

Let's do a test.   We guess the open close price each day of S&P for next 10 days.  If you're right you get a point.   Whoever scores the most point wins.   Just an experiment to see if your algo can guess the price better than me.   

At market close you have to guess the open price.   At open you guess the closing price.  Your allowed to be off by +/- 50c

I'm sorry but I'm not going to bother trying to get my software to predict S&P right now because I have a ton of other work to do. If you want to test accuracy, you should just make your own bitcoin price predictions and test their accuracy compared to my charts on this website.

If you want to know how it works look up artificial neural networks on Google. This isn't some simple process that I can explain to you in one post. It's a very complex computational model that people have been developing and researching since the 1940s. You could teach multiple college courses just on neural networks alone. To be honest, it seems like you are refuting 70 years worth of research based on your gut feeling that humans would be better at this - and if we're going to be realistic, computers are better than humans at nearly all tasks involving any type of computation. They're surpassing us quickly in other realms as well. They have been able to beat us in chess for a long time now, they can beat us in almost any other game, and they can even drive cars better than us now. Is it so hard to believe that they can predict stock prices better than us?

Thats not what I said at all.  I said markets are random so its impossible to predict them. They are by nature unpredictable.   If you think you can predict future prices youd be a billionaire by now. Just put all capital into options and you can double it every day

I was just curious if your software was a good trader.   Thats why I offered the challenge.   Maybe the chaellenge should be human and computer starting w same amount of money and see who makes more after a certain period.

Its a cop out if you can't explain what you are doing to predict these prices.  Telling me to google neural networks doesn't make you know future prices more than me.   I admit don't know future prices.   

[1714700611]

1714700611

[1714700611]

1714700611

[K128kevin]

I'm sorry but I'm not going to bother trying to get my software to predict S&P right now because I have a ton of other work to do. If you want to test accuracy, you should just make your own bitcoin price predictions and test their accuracy compared to my charts on this website.

If you want to know how it works look up artificial neural networks on Google. This isn't some simple process that I can explain to you in one post. It's a very complex computational model that people have been developing and researching since the 1940s. You could teach multiple college courses just on neural networks alone. To be honest, it seems like you are refuting 70 years worth of research based on your gut feeling that humans would be better at this - and if we're going to be realistic, computers are better than humans at nearly all tasks involving any type of computation. They're surpassing us quickly in other realms as well. They have been able to beat us in chess for a long time now, they can beat us in almost any other game, and they can even drive cars better than us now. Is it so hard to believe that they can predict stock prices better than us?

Thats not what I said at all.  I said markets are random so its impossible to predict them. They are by nature unpredictable.   If you think you can predict future prices youd be a billionaire by now. Just put all capital into options and you can double it every day

I was just curious if your software was a good trader.   Thats why I offered the challenge.   Maybe the chaellenge should be human and computer starting w same amount of money and see who makes more after a certain period.

Its a cop out if you can't explain what you are doing to predict these prices.  Telling me to google neural networks doesn't make you know future prices more than me.   I admit don't know future prices.   
[/quote]

To say that something is, by nature, unpredictable is to say that it is random, which is literally the same as believing in magic. Nothing in the world is random - everything has an observable cause. If something has a cause, then it is not random. If it doesn't, then it is magic. That's what magic means. Maybe we don't have the means or technology to observe something, but it is still theoretically observable. This is besides the point though.

People VASTLY overestimate the power that comes with the ability to accurately predict bitcoin prices MOST of the time. This does not mean you will instantly become rich, or even become rich ever. It means that there is a higher percent chance for you to make some money on the bitcoin market. To think that someone could become a billionaire as an undergrad in college speculating on bitcoin prices is absolutely ridiculous. This isn't a magical get-rich-quick tool and I've expressed this repeatedly to everyone.

To say that I can't explain it in a single post is not a cop out. If you really want to understand it you have to do some research. There are a lot of things in life that can't be explained in a paragraph, and this is one of them. Also it's not my job to explain this to you. I have tons of other things I need to be working on. Asking me to explain to you how neural networks work would be like asking a chemistry professor how chemistry works. Sure, I could give you some brief, vague, high level answer but you still wouldn't fully understand how predictions are made.

[twiifm]

Markets are random. 

Read "Fooled By Randomness" Nassim Taleb.   Most of professional traders know this

I know how neural networks.   I wanna how YOU come up w these price predictions.

If you think you're so accurate why bitcoins?   Why not study S&P and trade the options on them?

Then move on to SPX  futures?   I know of one lady who turned like $300K into $40M in 3 years. She's a retail trader

[aminorex]

Markets are random. 

Read "Fooled By Randomness" Nassim Taleb.   Most of professional traders know this

Naïve poster, school thyself.  Random does not mean a coin toss.
In e.g. Taleb's usage it means that the most effective models we know are stochastic process models.  They make predictions. That is why we call them effective.

[K128kevin]

Markets are random. 

Read "Fooled By Randomness" Nassim Taleb.   Most of professional traders know this

I know how neural networks.   I wanna how YOU come up w these price predictions.

If you think you're so accurate why bitcoins?   Why not study S&P and trade the options on them?

Then move on to SPX  futures?   I know of one lady who turned like $300K into $40M in 3 years. She's a retail trader

Once again, saying that it is random is literally the same as saying it is magic. And I do mean literally.

I'll give you a brief explanation of how it works, but I doubt this will help:

I use a 3-layer neural network that trains on 3 years worth of historic data from bitstamp (about 4 million transactions I think). It looks at 60 inputs (average hourly prices in a row) and spits out 24 outputs (next 24 hourly averages). It trains about 30-35 times by making predictions at a few tens of thousands of points throughout the historic data and adjusting the weights of the edges between nodes according to the errors of its predictions. After about 30-35 times training on that set, it can predict 24 prices with an average error of about 1.3%.

And you have to realize, I don't know a lot about finance - I know a lot about computer science and data. I don't own any stocks and I don't have enough money to buy any stocks. I own 0.6 bitcoins and I can't afford to buy any more, so I'm just holding them. You need to have money to spare in order to try to make money on the bitcoin or stock market. I don't have that. It's not easy to make money in these markets unless you have plenty of extra money to spare, and even then I doubt it's easy.

[SportsBet]

Kevin,

Thank you for the wonderful tool you have given us. I just hope you will continue to do so.

At this point in time, I think it's almost a moot point how accurate kevin's neural network predicted bitcoin prices are. His tool has only existed only a few weeks. It's only going to get better and more accurate. Scary accurate, I believe.

and what kind of data is this belief based upon?|

@Kevin, I dont want to put you down, infact Id support you. But predictions have been consistently wrong and then adjusted to whats going on.

[comp006]

I think the main problem is that the more people use this chart the more it will be wrong because it can't take its own influence to the market into calculation. This is the main problem with EVERY public prediction.

[K128kevin]

and what kind of data is this belief based upon?|

@Kevin, I dont want to put you down, infact Id support you. But predictions have been consistently wrong and then adjusted to whats going on.

By adjusting the predictions every hour, accuracy is greatly increased. It allows itself to change its prediction if something happens that changes the course of prices. I know it can seem like it's changing its mind, but it rarely significantly changes the prediction.

I'm not sure what chart you've been looking at, but the 24 hour chart has been right much more often than it has been wrong over the past 3 weeks. The 5 day hasn't done quite as well but it has done decently. The 20 day one is not reliable, as I've explained before. I've started collecting data to prove this, and you'll be able to see charts with predicted prices compared against actual prices. This will be up within a week hopefully.

I think the main problem is that the more people use this chart the more it will be wrong because it can't take its own influence to the market into calculation. This is the main problem with EVERY public prediction.

That is a potential problem, though I don't think it is one yet. I don't think my site is popular enough yet to have a significant influence over the market. If/when it does become popular enough, I expect that changes in price might be more dramatic than it anticipates, and they might occur sooner as well. It definitely shouldn't predict the wrong direction of movement or anything though.

[twiifm]

Markets are random.  

Read "Fooled By Randomness" Nassim Taleb.   Most of professional traders know this

Naïve poster, school thyself.  Random does not mean a coin toss.
In e.g. Taleb's usage it means that the most effective models we know are stochastic process models.  They make predictions. That is why we call them effective.

No what we think are patterns is actually randomness.   Why are stochastic processes counter to what I say? All I claim is markets can't be predicted.  

Theres a difference in saying BTC might be $500 in 24hrs than BTC will be in 24hrs.

[K128kevin]

No what we think are patterns is actually randomness.   Thats why you trade probality not patterns.   Why are stochastic processes counter to what I say? All I claim is markets can't be predicted.  

Anyone who claims they can predict the future is either lucky or delusional

Have you been reading what I wrote at all? Do you still not understand that there is no randomness? This isn't an opinion, it's a fact. NOTHING IS RANDOM. EVER. Not even the random number generators in computers - it's based off of complicated strings and your cpu clock.

Do you realize that if you can predict whether the price of something is going to move up or down correctly more than 50% of the time, you are successfully predicting future prices? Nobody said they can predict prices perfectly 100% of the time.

I don't understand how you don't understand this -_- It just plain is NOT random. All I'm claiming is that I can predict the price within a reasonable margin of error MOST of the time. And it's not like you can argue against this, because it's objectively true. My software does it on the ENTIRE HISTORY OF BITCOIN DATA every hour and predicts within an average of 1.3% error. You're arguing against something that is just clearly objectively true.

Edit: Read the name of the post!!! I said it's a prediction, that that it WILL be $500! ugh please try to understand...

[twiifm]

No what we think are patterns is actually randomness.   Thats why you trade probality not patterns.   Why are stochastic processes counter to what I say? All I claim is markets can't be predicted.  

Anyone who claims they can predict the future is either lucky or delusional

Have you been reading what I wrote at all? Do you still not understand that there is no randomness? This isn't an opinion, it's a fact. NOTHING IS RANDOM. EVER. Not even the random number generators in computers - it's based off of complicated strings and your cpu clock.

Do you realize that if you can predict whether the price of something is going to move up or down correctly more than 50% of the time, you are successfully predicting future prices? Nobody said they can predict prices perfectly 100% of the time.

I don't understand how you don't understand this -_- It just plain is NOT random. All I'm claiming is that I can predict the price within a reasonable margin of error MOST of the time. And it's not like you can argue against this, because it's objectively true. My software does it on the ENTIRE HISTORY OF BITCOIN DATA every hour and predicts within an average of 1.3% error. You're arguing against something that is just clearly objectively true.

Edit: Read the name of the post!!! I said it's a prediction, that that it WILL be $500! ugh please try to understand...

Maybe you are lucky.   Nothing is random ever?   If I flip a coin tell me if heads or tails.   Put that in your neural network. And predict heads vs tails

Dude,  it wasnt 500.  Not even close.   Your prediction was wrong.   That is the empirical truth



  

[MysticalPotato]

Human behavior is not totally unpredictable. Especially given large numbers of humans.

I got chills, man.
That sounded like Hari Seldon talking there.

[K128kevin]

Maybe you are lucky.   Nothing is random ever?   If I flip a coin tell me if heads or tails.   Put that in your neural network. And predict heads vs tails

Dude,  it wasnt 500.  Not even close.   Your prediction was wrong.   That is the empirical truth

The outcome of a coin flip is determined by the force with which you hit the coin, how far from the center you hit it, and tons of other physical properties that are obviously extremely difficult to measure. This is why it effectively is random for us, but it's not truly random, as you claim bitcoin prices to be. Theoretically if you could observe every physical factor that would affect the outcome of a coin flip, you could know with 100% certainty what the outcome would be. This means that it is not random.

The coin flip is a terrible analogy to bitcoin prices. Coinflips have a nearly even distribution of heads vs tails (it's not actually even). Bitcoin price movement is not binary, and it is not an even distribution. A coin flip would be a valid analogy to a market where the value of the commodity is ALWAYS either $1 or $2, and NEVER anything else. And also where it is $1 50% of the time, and $2 50% of the time. I hope this shows you how flipping a coin obviously doesn't even come close to making sense as an analogy to bitcoin prices.

And as I explained to you earlier but maybe you forgot or didn't read - it readjusted its prediction one hour after I made this post, and it was pretty close after readjusting. It accurately predicted the rise in price, just not to the correct degree. I've also repeatedly said it's not ALWAYS right. Saying that one prediction is wrong (which it wasn't) and therefore none are right is like saying seeing one person win money at a casino and saying that casino NEVER earns money.

I got chills, man.
That sounded like Hari Seldon talking there.

I looked up who that is - that book looks kind of awesome! I might check it out.

[Beans]

I'm sorry but I'm not going to bother trying to get my software to predict S&P right now because I have a ton of other work to do. If you want to test accuracy, you should just make your own bitcoin price predictions and test their accuracy compared to my charts on this website.

If you want to know how it works look up artificial neural networks on Google. This isn't some simple process that I can explain to you in one post. It's a very complex computational model that people have been developing and researching since the 1940s. You could teach multiple college courses just on neural networks alone. To be honest, it seems like you are refuting 70 years worth of research based on your gut feeling that humans would be better at this - and if we're going to be realistic, computers are better than humans at nearly all tasks involving any type of computation. They're surpassing us quickly in other realms as well. They have been able to beat us in chess for a long time now, they can beat us in almost any other game, and they can even drive cars better than us now. Is it so hard to believe that they can predict stock prices better than us?

Thats not what I said at all.  I said markets are random so its impossible to predict them. They are by nature unpredictable.   If you think you can predict future prices youd be a billionaire by now. Just put all capital into options and you can double it every day

I was just curious if your software was a good trader.   Thats why I offered the challenge.   Maybe the chaellenge should be human and computer starting w same amount of money and see who makes more after a certain period.

Its a cop out if you can't explain what you are doing to predict these prices.  Telling me to google neural networks doesn't make you know future prices more than me.   I admit don't know future prices.  

To say that something is, by nature, unpredictable is to say that it is random, which is literally the same as believing in magic. Nothing in the world is random - everything has an observable cause. If something has a cause, then it is not random. If it doesn't, then it is magic. That's what magic means. Maybe we don't have the means or technology to observe something, but it is still theoretically observable. This is besides the point though.

People VASTLY overestimate the power that comes with the ability to accurately predict bitcoin prices MOST of the time. This does not mean you will instantly become rich, or even become rich ever. It means that there is a higher percent chance for you to make some money on the bitcoin market. To think that someone could become a billionaire as an undergrad in college speculating on bitcoin prices is absolutely ridiculous. This isn't a magical get-rich-quick tool and I've expressed this repeatedly to everyone.

To say that I can't explain it in a single post is not a cop out. If you really want to understand it you have to do some research. There are a lot of things in life that can't be explained in a paragraph, and this is one of them. Also it's not my job to explain this to you. I have tons of other things I need to be working on. Asking me to explain to you how neural networks work would be like asking a chemistry professor how chemistry works. Sure, I could give you some brief, vague, high level answer but you still wouldn't fully understand how predictions are made.

Quantum mechanics tells us that things are random. Even if you could chart every particle in the universe, you could not predict everything. Although, you can find likely outcomes. When it comes to predicting the price of bitcoin, it doesn't matter anyway. There are way to many unknown variables.

[K128kevin]

Quantum mechanics tells us that things are random. Even if you could chart every particle in the universe, you could not predict everything. Although, you can find likely outcomes.

Haha I was waiting for someone to bring up quantum mechanics. I feel like that's the only legitimate argument you can make against what I said. I don't understand enough about quantum mechanics to really discuss this, but from what I've heard from people who actually study it and know a decent amount about it (nobody knows "a lot" about quantum mechanics) all of the things about randomness are still pretty theoretical or just not well understood.

It's a very interesting subject, but regardless it doesn't conflict with my point that bitcoin prices are NOT random.

[Beans]

Quantum mechanics tells us that things are random. Even if you could chart every particle in the universe, you could not predict everything. Although, you can find likely outcomes.

Haha I was waiting for someone to bring up quantum mechanics. I feel like that's the only legitimate argument you can make against what I said. I don't understand enough about quantum mechanics to really discuss this, but from what I've heard from people who actually study it and know a decent amount about it (nobody knows "a lot" about quantum mechanics) all of the things about randomness are still pretty theoretical or just not well understood.

It's a very interesting subject, but regardless it doesn't conflict with my point that bitcoin prices are NOT random.

You should check out "Through the Wormhole", they spend a lot of time on the subject. Basically if you shoot a electron through a solid flat surface it would leave more then one hole. Unless you were observing it. May as well be magic, to our generation at least. We might just be living inside the matrix, that's just a glitch in the program..

[SportsBet]

Quantum mechanics tells us that things are random. Even if you could chart every particle in the universe, you could not predict everything. Although, you can find likely outcomes.

Haha I was waiting for someone to bring up quantum mechanics. I feel like that's the only legitimate argument you can make against what I said. I don't understand enough about quantum mechanics to really discuss this, but from what I've heard from people who actually study it and know a decent amount about it (nobody knows "a lot" about quantum mechanics) all of the things about randomness are still pretty theoretical or just not well understood.

It's a very interesting subject, but regardless it doesn't conflict with my point that bitcoin prices are NOT random.

You should check out "Through the Wormhole", they spend a lot of time on the subject. Basically if you shoot a electron through a solid flat surface it would leave more then one hole. Unless you were observing it. May as well be magic, to our generation at least. We might just be living inside the matrix, that's just a glitch in the program..

Learning about quantum mechanics from "Trough the wormhole" is the last thing I would advice.

[Dr Bloggood]

Interesting thread! OP, don't let yourself be thrown off the path by a couple of quite ignorant posters!

What are the medium and long term predictions? 5 months? 1 year? 3 years?

[toxic1978]

Great Thread. Nothing is Random, randomization is of course impossible as every action has a predetermined consequence. Whether the human mind or tools which the human mind has created have the processing ability to discover the results of all actions before they occur is of course unlikely at our current technological stage.

But having said that the Financial Markets are not as complex as say human life, therefor we are likely to be able to determine fairly accurate predictions of financial markets with the right input data, what of course makes these predictions less stable are variables which we do not have access to, such as other peoples influence. But again this is not random, we just don't have all the data we need.

[K128kevin]

Dr Bloggood - 20 days is the furthest I've been able to get the neural network to reasonably predict into the future, and unfortunately that one isn't actually especially accurate. The further forward you look, the more difficult it is to make predictions because real-world events that software can't anticipate will cause price changes.

toxic1978 - Yup! That's pretty much exactly what I'm trying to say.

catfish - That seems very interesting! So if I understand correctly, your idea was to have a neural network that could predict the behavior of individual traders in response to market changes, and then based on those predictions you could extrapolate to see what would happen to prices?

Also did they have multi-layered neural networks back when you were thinking of doing this? Because I know 3+ layers is relatively new and this would definitely be impossible with anything less than 3 layers. I guess computer speed back then might have made it difficult as well.