I've said over and over if price violates my trendlines then I switch my tack. But lets move past the "screw you bull/bear" part of the conversation.

I know what moving averages are. They lag price. I also know what MACD is, and being composed of lagging inputs, also lags price. They also normalize price action and "smooth" it, to make things a bit more comprehensible to the trader.

This still doesn't remove the fact that they are - LAGGING indicators that do little else but mimic price movement. This, among other reasons, is why they are completely decorative and shouldn't be used to prognosticate about anything.

The problem with most indicators is they're usually normalized price fluctuations - and therefore, complete crap.

Look at the MACD, and the rest of it. Hey, it goes up when price goes up, and goes down when price goes down. Seems like trying to trade off an echo, eh?

Ridiculous.

Yeah, so I couldn't let this one slide. (no pun intended)

You think we broke three bucks and bounced back because of "irrational bulls"? Listen, everyone was looking for a retrace, even me, and it didn't materialize - not like I thought it would. If there was word ONE that was true about your wish, we wouldn't be trading at 20 PLUS. We'd be at 14 or UNDER.

Seriously, we get a big sell event and it isn't enough to break the uptrend? What does that tell you?

I know what it means to me...

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Hell, its only ~1.1 bitcoins

The austin powers gif was hilarious - nice use of site communication

It's called a V-Reversal. It happens when irrational traders panic, then the saavy ones pick up the bargains. A transfer from the weak hands to the strong. This occurs in regular equity and commodity futures markets, too.

But keep on going with the "Master Manipulator" theory, its amusing to watch the group psychosis play out.

I guess nobody has seen a V-Reversal before.

Well, almost nobody

A simple analogy:

Raw Ore --> Mine Processing --> Gold Ingots :: Raw Bits --> Miner Hashing --> Bitcoin Blocks

Sure, it remains to be seen how bitcoin performs as things scale, but there are inherent advantages when it comes to digital versus physical. For one, I don't have to rent out a big vault or storage box, and I don't have to worry that the government has a record of my purchase at the dealer.

Precious metals have their place, but I think Bitcoin will prove itself worthy as well in the world of bits and bytes.

I'm aware of the potential risks, I've posted that I expect prices to retrace, possibly to a lower level than most expect. I'm on both sides of this trade - not "burying my head in the sand".

As for "sublime", he's a well known pot-stirrer in the OTC channels, so I'd trust his word about as much as I'd trust Bruce Wagner.

His juvenile language and attempts to insult other people are the icing on the cake. Hey sublime, why don't you go bang pots in the kitchen and let the grown ups worry about the future.

This is the exact response I'd expect from someone who is blindly stuffing money into a sub-1% savings/checking account.

Enjoy your trip down devaluation/debasement lane, won't you? That is, if you even understand what those words mean.

More are being mined? That's a rookie mistake to make. Only 3,600 are being mined per day, and this is independent of what technology is mining them. That number will go DOWN in four years, too.


You're describing the same dynamics that occur in global markets. If I make a product in the United States and sell it in Japan, I have to consider currency conversion risks. Major companies do this every day, and seems they're in the "place they want to be." Bitcoin is no different.


Wait, first you say "more are being mined every day" and now there aren't enough to go around? Make up your mind. And even if you do, you'd be wrong. I've never had a problem getting mine, but I guess I put more thought into my financial plans.


Wait a second, you mean people LIE to each other? What? They steal? OMG!? Society will grind to a halt! ... Or... mechanisms exist to trust other people conditionally. Bitcoin doesn't have any enforcement of contract, so you have to judge your risk accordingly, not leap in blindly thinking there's a safety net.


Ah, you've correctly discovered the present financial system is run by tyrants who can shut you down at will. That is why bitcoin will evolve beyond needing edge-exchanges. Bitcoin exists to route around these idiots. We really can't help you there, since the laws that have been made on the subject are paid for by rather large groups with piles of paper money in their vaults.


Yes, breaking the law means you're in trouble. What a prescient and insightful comment. As for your "i just dont understand" comments, bitcoin has proven a lot of people wrong in that area - people who thought it was over in 2011, those who couldn't get the fact it could go higher than 5, or 10, or 20.... You get the idea.

I think you need to do more research about the whole subject. That includes business planning.

So lets say someone does a bit of experimentation and increases the efficiency of solar cells to some really high number.

Then you have sun-flation - because that sucker isn't going to burn out any time soon. It will then be a race to cover the face of the planet or launch large light-capturing satellites beaming energy down with microwaves or near-UV lasers. What a disaster.

Its okay, he can just start his own fork called "WhinerCoin" and get in on the ground floor!!

There are equivalents to this, some stocks have leaped from the "pink sheets" to the major exchanges to be traded. So, some people indeed got their investments started for pennies before going to $1 dollar and beyond. I love how everyone conveniently forgets this in the media.

There are parallels to bitcoin in the "real" financial world. Nobody bothers looking for them though, because they're too focused on declaring it a "ponzi".

Idiots.

I'd agree that it is hugging a trendline rather well. I'm wary however - just like you are, because we both know that any selloff should be rather panic-fueled once it gets underway. The only comfort is that the recent selloffs haven't gone as far as they would've in 2011.

It has been a lot of fun to chart it, in any case.

And likely plunge the entire equity market into chaos. If it takes $84 Billion a month just to eke out a small percentage in the Dow/S&P500, what do you think will happen when that evaporates? And I won't even go into what rising interest rates will do to servicing the massive payments on the national debt.

It would be a messy implosion, that's what.

I'm expecting a retracement, myself. The only problem is - you don't short into an uptrend. When it breaks my trendlines, then it is time to bail.

Any good trader looks at both sides.

You're a complete muppet.

I use past chart action to judge extremes. The biggest plunge we've ever seen has been about $21 dollars. That was of course from the all-time highs to around the 10.00 area in 2011.

If that happened now, it would put us around $3.78 - however I think the market has become more resilient to absorbing such volume, so it would probably be around half of that, which yields $13.78, a price that doesn't really bother me.

I'd be a supporter at either one, but it is interesting to note how this could unfold. The strength so far has been quite impressive.

It would one hell of a thing if we achieved a "hockey stick" exponential curve that ended in a new plateau instead of retracing immediately after. I think this is what you're suggesting, and I can see where you're coming from.

The problem here is that the "major" markets are fundamentally broken.

I hope I don't have to review specifically why, as you should already know. Between High Frequency Trading snatching fractions, inane monetary policy from the Federal Reserve (to the tune of $84 Billion a month) - why in the hell would I want to invest in a market that is prone to systemic failure?

Also, why would I want to invest in sovereign currencies via Forex?

I realize not everyone thinks as I do, and they're free to do what they please, but I would beg some of them to reconsider. When the big "adjustment" comes, you won't want to be anywhere near a conventional market, at all.