panic buying since 2011  |
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Anyone that started buying when I called the bottom will be 10-15% underwater. I left my call on because, I want to show in the fullness of time, how little it mattered that I got the exact bottom wrong.
If it goes to zero it doesn't matter if you bought at $533 or $424 or $200. You lose. Thats why you don't overcommit.
If bitcoin moon happens, it only matters that you bought and dollar cost averaging is tried and tested way of ensuring just that.
Trying to time the market, catch the knife, wait for confirmation of a reversal? They all come with a significant non-zero chance of you ending up leaving it far far too long, and in the end getting a much higher entry point than people that bought all the way down, took in the bottom, and all the way back up to the point where you finally decide to hop back on board.
I'm looking at having around about exactly the same number of BTC I had in 2012, and being 5 figures fiat the better for it. It might not be life changing, but its certainly helped.
Sell bits on the way up, buy bits on the way down. Never go full fiat.
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Careful with that one, it's a double bet. If btc-e goes gox the bet resolves as a no whatever the price is. Primary reason I did not bet on it while I did bet on the 10k one. Yeah I know, surely there must be few people that fancy a 2:1 on the chance of BTC-e folding! (I'm blatently pimping the NO side cos I'm mostly the whole of the yes side ) i hope, but i'm doubt  it is better btc prices steadily increase instead suddenly pump to high prices Careful with that one, it's a double bet. If btc-e goes gox the bet resolves as a no whatever the price is. Primary reason I did not bet on it while I did bet on the 10k one. hmm, be careful with btc-e statement so they don't use another exchange, just btc-e? tricky statement The wording on the bet is clear that if BTCE folds it resolves no. Which I thought made for an interesting twist. I can't believe there isn't more on the no side at the moment. easy money for all the bears out there surely |
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I always like to read charts using these  |
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BitChick classing up the place, showing how it's done. Can you pls then teach these immature 'boys' on this forum how to hold their wad for more than 5 friggin' minutes? Lol. I'm so glad I'm not part of this stupid "GenY-ADHD-things-aren't-happening-fast-enough-something-gotta-be-happening-every-second-or-life-sucks-oh-snap-something-big-going-down-on-Twitter" generation. #millenialsaredoomed Look, the dude made a mistake and took a position in the midst of low volume trending position. Nobody can provide him with any guarantees that Bitcoin will break up, or break down. So he has taken the safe option and pulled his Geld out. Only a complete fkn prick would encourage a newcomer to Bitcoin to go long on primary downtrend, right in the middle of a choppy low volume no-mans land, and you are surely not a complete fkn prick are you? If he couldn't afford to lose his geld, then his geld shouldn't have been "in" in the first place. I suppose only "complete fkn prick" would be dollar cost averaging during a downtrend.  When you stop looking at bitcoin as a get rich quick super volatile trading all or nothing gamble every transaction, and start looking at it as a long term investment that makes up part of your overall investment strategy, you come up with entirely different ideas about what is a good idea and what is a bad idea. Step back. You're holding the chart too close. |
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Downtrend still on, nothing to see here, continue selling and placing 380 and below bids. these posts. i love. |
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IANAL but I'm fairly sure copyright is not applicable here, there is no 'work' as such just a name. This would potentially be covered by trademark. Trademark can be for names (words) or branding (logos, trade dress, etc) As I understand it you can't trademark actual 'things', particularly if you are in the line of work i.e. windows only works because its the name of an OS. A glazing company could not trademark 'Windows' apple only works because they are a tech firm, they couldn't trademark the user of 'apple' for fruit products etc This is my understanding of UK law, and I suspect it is broadly similar for other jurisdictions. I think bitcoin has now become a 'thing' albeit virtual, and so I would be surprised if you could trademark the word. You could possibly trademark a particular BTC logo, or the BTC symbol. Which may be what gox/karpales done. OF course we are on the speculation board here, which is why my post contains no actual facts |
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mine certainly does - my most conservative entry has >0.5% for everything between $50 and $0.079 per mbtc  |
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and this is how it develops over next 8 months...  clearly we are all far too optimistic |
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Consensus so far is $420-435.
Logical... But when I look at it again, doesn't seem much different to current price. You guys would lock-in a better deal right?
fwiw this is the end of may consensus of the players in our little game of predict the price...  |
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net long awaiting drop.
we have years yet
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great idea to plot the potential points This is my chart  Positive points: between 177.83 and 1258.92 eliminated (<-20): interval [50.12;141.25] interval [1584.88;31622.77] and 100000+ I suspect being eliminated for a price over $1584 by end of month wouldn't be *too* upsetting though |
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interesting, even my conservative entry assumes too much volatility. (who can blame me with BTC's history though!) This is what it might score in the first month...  |
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The first prediction round results are here!We have 8 entries in the game, and all submitted a prediction for all 8 months (price in last day of May, June, ... December). The summary of the monthly predictions is as follows: Arithmetic average is the simple average of the weighted simple average of all the prodictions. The high values affect this a lot, for which reason it is generally rather high figure, even for the nearest months. Geometric average is the weighted simple average of the geometric average of all the predictions, scaled to 100% (due to geometric averaging, the sum of the geometric averages is only about 50%). This is what I would use as the consensus average. Median is the midpoint of the probability density (geometric averages used), and would be near the consensus "most likely case". Mean is the slot with the highest probability (geometric), and would be near the consensus "most likely case" as well. Months go from May to December. m BTC, decimal comma. I will send the "orange sheet" to sgbett and he can distribute it to the contestants. arith ave 2,08 2,57 3,08 3,68 4,35 4,97 5,96 7,47
geom ave 0,58 0,68 0,77 0,92 1,06 1,17 1,90 3,19
median 0,47 0,53 0,6 0,67 0,67 0,75 0,84 0,94
mode 0,47 0,47 0,47 0,53 0,53 0,53 0,6 0,75
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0ByF9G8exBPg7N2VBcFpLZlItZ1k/edit?usp=sharing |
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<snip>
Beware of the Bitcoin Nutter! He will offer you some of his Kool-Aid! He will demand you drink his Kool-Aid! Whatever you do, don't drink Bitcoin Nutter's Kool Aid!
<snip>
Look in the mirror for fuck sakes true dat. this, is right now... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KeuRAWSJGFY(I am that bitcoin nutter in the chair) |
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I yearn for orange numbers!!!
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I prefer log scale for my pie charts.  bravo sir! How could I have overlooked such a fundamental error  |
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