2014 USD/mBTC Price Prediction Contest

[rpietila]

...and see the good odds

If no new money, and 4 or less of the current entries remain until the last round (remaining does not cost money, but you should not make blunders), the winner takes it all:

Winner: 1,400mBTC for a 28x payback!

If 5-8 entries remain in play, the pot will be distributed as follows:

Winner: 1,060mBTC for a 21.2x payback!
2nd place: 340mBTC for a 6.8x payback

[1715504650]

1715504650

[1715504650]

1715504650

[1715504650]

1715504650

[dnaleor]

filling in all the fields is quite a task

But I'm almost done... looking forward to the results

If I was now doing the exercise of filling 8*80 fields, I would do it the following way:

1. Forecast May first as it is only 24 days away and historically a violent turnaround (going to 1.00+) is less probable. The total destruction of price is also less probable according to the trendline model and the clear tendency of the price to snap back. So we would likely stay in 0.25-1.00 range centered on the current price.

2. Forecast December second. The center of the distribution would be where you think the trendline is and where we are relative to the trend. It is quite possible that we are in the dumpster (3) after having had a moonshot (8 ) in between. All the prices from 0.5 to 50 should receive some coverage. (If this competition was started in November -12, who would have guessed the yearly advance of 100x?).

3. The months in between are just interpolation, with perhaps a slight tendency for moonshot in the months when I think it is most probable.

* *

We have now 8 entries competing and Round 1 entry is CLOSED. I am waiting for all to submit their predictions today.

At the close of May, as round 2 starts, some more players may enter in since they know about the system much more and see the good odds

I did something like this
(and I have send the file )

[bluemoon]

Phew, I'm glad that's done! At least it's only 560 cells next time

Entry sent.

[wachtwoord]

...and see the good odds

If no new money, and 4 or less of the current entries remain until the last round (remaining does not cost money, but you should not make blunders), the winner takes it all:

Winner: 1,400mBTC for a 28x payback!

If 5-8 entries remain in play, the pot will be distributed as follows:

Winner: 1,060mBTC for a 21.2x payback!
2nd place: 340mBTC for a 6.8x payback

If the price by the end of the year is <$1000 it's even more (as your contribution to the pot has a $1000 lower bound).

[dnaleor]

...and see the good odds

If no new money, and 4 or less of the current entries remain until the last round (remaining does not cost money, but you should not make blunders), the winner takes it all:

Winner: 1,400mBTC for a 28x payback!

If 5-8 entries remain in play, the pot will be distributed as follows:

Winner: 1,060mBTC for a 21.2x payback!
2nd place: 340mBTC for a 6.8x payback

If the price by the end of the year is <$1000 it's even more (as your contribution to the pot has a $1000 lower bound).

I don't see that in the "final rules". I do not think it is necessary. We are already benefitting from the whealth of the OP

Phew, I'm glad that's done! At least it's only 560 cells next time

Entry sent.

LOL 

[sgbett]

I yearn for orange numbers!!!

[rpietila]

I yearn for orange numbers!!!

They are coming in about 3 hours!

[Foxpup]

I yearn for orange numbers!!!

They are coming in about 3 hours!

It's been more than about 3 hours. What's the hold up?

[rpietila]

I got visitors, hold on

(this is why I normally reserve 3 days for the job..)

[rpietila]

The first prediction round results are here!

We have 8 entries in the game, and all submitted a prediction for all 8 months (price in last day of May, June, ... December).

The summary of the monthly predictions is as follows:

Arithmetic average is the simple average of the weighted simple average of all the prodictions. The high values affect this a lot, for which reason it is generally rather high figure, even for the nearest months.

Geometric average is the weighted simple average of the geometric average of all the predictions, scaled to 100% (due to geometric averaging, the sum of the geometric averages is only about 50%). This is what I would use as the consensus average.

Median is the midpoint of the probability density (geometric averages used), and would be near the consensus "most likely case".

Mean is the slot with the highest probability (geometric), and would be near the consensus "most likely case" as well.

Months go from May to December. mBTC, decimal comma.

I will send the "orange sheet" to sgbett and he can distribute it to the contestants.

Code:

arith ave	2,08	2,57	3,08	3,68	4,35	4,97	5,96	7,47
geom ave	0,58	0,68	0,77	0,92	1,06	1,17	1,90	3,19
median  	0,47	0,53	0,6	0,67	0,67	0,75	0,84	0,94
mode	    0,47	0,47	0,47	0,53	0,53	0,53	0,6	0,75

[sgbett]

The first prediction round results are here!

We have 8 entries in the game, and all submitted a prediction for all 8 months (price in last day of May, June, ... December).

The summary of the monthly predictions is as follows:

Arithmetic average is the simple average of the weighted simple average of all the prodictions. The high values affect this a lot, for which reason it is generally rather high figure, even for the nearest months.

Geometric average is the weighted simple average of the geometric average of all the predictions, scaled to 100% (due to geometric averaging, the sum of the geometric averages is only about 50%). This is what I would use as the consensus average.

Median is the midpoint of the probability density (geometric averages used), and would be near the consensus "most likely case".

Mean is the slot with the highest probability (geometric), and would be near the consensus "most likely case" as well.

Months go from May to December. mBTC, decimal comma.

I will send the "orange sheet" to sgbett and he can distribute it to the contestants.

Code:

arith ave	2,08	2,57	3,08	3,68	4,35	4,97	5,96	7,47
geom ave	0,58	0,68	0,77	0,92	1,06	1,17	1,90	3,19
median  	0,47	0,53	0,6	0,67	0,67	0,75	0,84	0,94
mode	    0,47	0,47	0,47	0,53	0,53	0,53	0,6	0,75

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0ByF9G8exBPg7N2VBcFpLZlItZ1k/edit?usp=sharing

[wachtwoord]

The first prediction round results are here!

We have 8 entries in the game, and all submitted a prediction for all 8 months (price in last day of May, June, ... December).

The summary of the monthly predictions is as follows:

Arithmetic average is the simple average of the weighted simple average of all the prodictions. The high values affect this a lot, for which reason it is generally rather high figure, even for the nearest months.

Geometric average is the weighted simple average of the geometric average of all the predictions, scaled to 100% (due to geometric averaging, the sum of the geometric averages is only about 50%). This is what I would use as the consensus average.

Median is the midpoint of the probability density (geometric averages used), and would be near the consensus "most likely case".

Mean is the slot with the highest probability (geometric), and would be near the consensus "most likely case" as well.

Months go from May to December. mBTC, decimal comma.

I will send the "orange sheet" to sgbett and he can distribute it to the contestants.

Code:

arith ave	2,08	2,57	3,08	3,68	4,35	4,97	5,96	7,47
geom ave	0,58	0,68	0,77	0,92	1,06	1,17	1,90	3,19
median  	0,47	0,53	0,6	0,67	0,67	0,75	0,84	0,94
mode	    0,47	0,47	0,47	0,53	0,53	0,53	0,6	0,75

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0ByF9G8exBPg7N2VBcFpLZlItZ1k/edit?usp=sharing

Thanks man!

En gogogo current price range!

[dnaleor]

 

geom ave   0,58   0,68   0,77   0,92   1,06   1,17   1,90   3,19

Seems everybody used the exponential trendline to guess the exchange rate for december

[sgbett]

interesting, even my conservative entry assumes too much volatility. (who can blame me with BTC's history though!)

This is what it might score in the first month...

[wachtwoord]

interesting, even my conservative entry assumes too much volatility. (who can blame me with BTC's history though!)

This is what it might score in the first month...

Haha, our tactic seem to be each other's opposites. I only have a positive score between ~$316 and ~$501

[Foxpup]

interesting, even my conservative entry assumes too much volatility. (who can blame me with BTC's history though!)

This is what it might score in the first month...

Wow. This is mine:

Code:

Price              Score
< $0.044           -5.68 -  0.00
  $0.044 - $0.178  +0.29 - +5.83
  $0.178 - $0.224  -0.11
  $0.224 - $1.256  +0.04 - +1.68
  $1.259 - $1.995  -5.98 - -0.19
> $1.995           < -20 OOPS!

I get the most points (5.83) if the price falls to between $0.071 and $0.079, with a predicted probability of 0.0900%. Apparently everybody else thinks such a crash is even more unlikely than that.

I ascribed the highest probability (20.0749%) to the range $0.447 - $0.501, earning 1.33 points if realised.

If the price stays the same ($0.442), as wachtwoord hopes, I get only 0.81 points.

I only have a positive score between ~$316 and ~$501

A risky strategy. How many points will you (hopefully) score?

[dnaleor]

great idea to plot the potential points  

This is my chart


Positive points: between 177.83 and 1258.92
eliminated (<-20): interval [50.12;141.25] interval [1584.88;31622.77] and 100000+

[sgbett]

great idea to plot the potential points  

This is my chart


Positive points: between 177.83 and 1258.92
eliminated (<-20): interval [50.12;141.25] interval [1584.88;31622.77] and 100000+

I suspect being eliminated for a price over $1584 by end of month wouldn't be *too* upsetting though

[dnaleor]

great idea to plot the potential points  

This is my chart


Positive points: between 177.83 and 1258.92
eliminated (<-20): interval [50.12;141.25] interval [1584.88;31622.77] and 100000+

I suspect being eliminated for a price over $1584 by end of month wouldn't be *too* upsetting though

hehe, very upsetting

I also checked when I do well in this competition:
max points 4.39 when BTC in interval [199.53;223.86]
Also a nice score 2.09 points when BTC in interval [562.34;630.95]


Seems I have nice chances
I really like this game


edit: I also checked the other months. Seems I have really nice guesses. Only when BTC would go very high or very low, I will loose. And at a certain point, I also start loosing (very little) points when BTC stays in the range 200-800.

[Foxpup]

Hey, I can make pretty charts, too.