NOT...   


Some troll posters seem to have had those kinds of presumptions here, historically.  Though in recent months, it does seem to me that trolling here is generally down, unless they have gotten more sophisticated?    You guys have been replaced by bots, perhaps?  Cheaper for the lizard overlords to attempt to employ bots, and bots are getting smarter, too.


You think I would believe that level of bullshit explanation?  Get real... you almost deserve a batman/robin slap gif, for that comment.

By the way, I am not asking for any kind of "in depth" answer, just anything quasi-plausible would be better than your bullshit evasiveness about something so goddamned simple.


When posters use words like these:  "Im being completely truthful about this," it is time to run for the hills.




Oh my!!!!   When I thought that the explanation could not get any worse.  It did.   


I gave the example to show how easy an answer could be, and i don't see how responding could be any more convoluted than that, and your ability to make your answer (response) so stupidly convoluted shows your shit fulledness levels.


Even more nonsense.  If the above is not an example of overly nonsense, I am not sure what would be.

and even more... go figure?


Stack satoshis might have been your only decent point in that whole post.  Oh my.

Maybe now, we are meandering into the extent to which guesses are involved in this whole matter, or how to categorize what is a guess?

In the past few hours, I have been attempting to reflect a bit on what point you have been attempting to make with your seeming ongoing desire and persistence to label what is going on as a "bull market" or a "baby bull market," and your earlier "baby bull market" kind of gives away what you are attempting to achieve.

Largely you are trying to argue that you are pretty convinced that for whatever reason you believe that the bottom is in, and this price downtrend is reversed.  You are trying to emphasize your point by labelling the matter as a baby bull market.  Some of the rest of the matters that you are throwing in are not as central to those kinds of main points that you are trying to make with your labelling our current status as a "bull market" or "baby bull market."  And, you are largely both attempting to be predictive with your implication that the "bottom is in", and you may end up being right, but you also seem to be attempting to provide a kind of spin doctor reality to the matter by suggesting that if we all begin to believe that the bottom is in then we will act in such a way that causes the description to fulfill the prescription.

I have called you a troll, and other similar names a few times, because I had been kind of questioning some of your exaggeration intentions; however, I may be developing a little more sympathy for your whole framing of the matter if I am correct about your intention to merely cause more bullish thinking that might assist to make what you want to be reality come true.

I don't have any problem with having bullish intentions, because as you likely pointed out several times, I am a bitcoin bull myself, and my investment practices and behaviors in bitcoin attempt to reflect my bitcoin bullish sentiments and beliefs.  Nonetheless, I question how much utility comes from what seems to me to be exaggerations that are likely NOT going to change the market anyhow, and could actually result in a lot of blowback when your seeming exaggerations end up NOT even coming close to coming true.

So, for me, it may be more of a personal tone matter in which I believe in having low expectations in order that it is way more likely that my expectations are going to be reached and exceeded - because I have found that if I create or follow higher expectations or exaggeration, then there is a real high likelihood that its going to end in a lot of disappointment when those exaggerations and high expectations are not reached.  


You are getting into a different field here, and I doubt that we need to go down the "scientific method" road in order to understand what people do.  We are not scientists, but we still are easily capable of assigning various probabilities to future events and outcomes.  Some events and outcomes are highly probable and some are not, and each person is going to assign varying probabilities to various outcomes and the compounding of calculations which might involve pure guessing in some cases is likely going cause a whole hell of a lot of different views about the future, even if there is agreement on some aspects.  For example, both of us might assign a real high probability that the sun is going to come up tomorrow even if we have differing views about the dynamics that cause that.  Predicting human behavior and markets (that involve a lot of human behavior) are way more complicated, and we do not necessarily need scientific methods to attempt to employ various kinds of probability theory, even though sometimes people with scientific minds and thinking are going to have more specialized approaches, but there are a whole hell of a lot of really smart people and scientists who don't know what they fuck they are talking about in regards to bitcoin matters (even if they might have opinions about it).. hahahahahaha


hahahahaha  good.... however, just the fact that you bring that up seems to show that you are assigning way more randomness to opinions than they likely deserve, including the opinions of yours truly.  


Fair enough about this point.


There is no need to lump all aspects of knowledge into one category.  Like I attempted to describe above, there are certain categories of information that are more certain than others and even more undisputed.  Like we are going to agree about what is going to happen, so for example, if we talk about bitcoin's halvening, we can agree to a lot of aspects about it, and if we talk about how many BTCs are produced per 10 minutes and about how miners might increase or decrease their hashing power based on BTC price.  However, the more factors that we attempt to account, the harder it comes to both assign probabilities to the behavior or what kind of an impact those factors are going to have on the BTC price and even the extent to which one factor or another matters or how other people might view the event, including how much weight to give to BTC price momentum versus news versus fundamentals versus public perceptions or regulations.  

What I am trying to say is that we are going to weigh various factors differently, and even come to differing weighing of their impact on bitcoin and there will also be some guessing involved too.  Some people have access to more information, and do not have to guess as much as others about certain aspects, but still it is quite likely that no one really knows while at the same time no one is completely guessing about everything either.  By the way, some people seem to make some of their guesses/predictions based on a combination of numerology and conspiracy theories about bitcoin manipulation, and sometimes they might end up being correct, too.


There are word choices and there can also be questions about what factors are being considered and how much weight is given to factors and how much pure guessing might be going on.



That above is a real bullshit and seemingly disingenuous troll answer.  I had made questions that are so easy peasy that almost any genuine poster should have been able to at least make some kind of stab at disclosing which BTC price points or what factors caused them to arrive at their conclusion about when the bull market or "baby bull market" in this case and your terms was triggered and/or entered into.  

The fact that you don't even make any kind of reasonable attempt shows that you are either acting disingenuously (as a kind of troll), that you are a dumbass (I don't think that is the case, by the way) or that you are purely making shit up (guessing) just for the mere sake of it.

In other words, based on your already demonstration of writing and analyzing abilities (including your demonstration of your detailed trolling efforts aimed largely at roach and gembitz), it should be quite easy for you to write out something like this:

>>>>>>>>Between December 7 and December 15, I saw that the bears had put in a lot of effort to attempt to bring the BTC price down, and the best that they got on December 15 was $3,122.  Subsequently, by December 21 and December 25, the BTC price rebounded to $4,100 and $4,200 respectively.  At no later point have the bears been able to bring the BTC price down below $3,300.....blah blah blah<<<<<<

You should have easily been able to come up with some kind of plausible and seemingly genuine bullshit ideas to show that you are at least attempting to make an effort in the right direction, but instead you play the "trade secrets" phoney baloney card... Your handler told you to say something like that?  hahahahahaha



Oh my!!!!! I have heard this kind of nonsense before when I troll attempts to avoid answering by playing both the expertise card and the trade secrets card.  

Not believe-able.  You gotta try harder.. or actually try less hard.  Being genuine does not take a lot of effort, but when you are not genuine, your bullshit will tend to seep through, which likely shows that my time is being wasted attempting to explain some of these basic concepts to a disingenuous poster..


Not convincing... after reading your previous few sentences.

Words have meaning.  So sometimes your words will add up to too high of a level of certainty, so even if the implied meaning is less than 100%, the words are still committing too much to describing the future with too high degrees of certainty.


No problem.  I never suggested that people have to agree here, but if you start saying ridiculous things, that can cause responses from peeps like me.


There is no need to prove a prediction.  Anyone can make predictions; however, if you express predictions as anywhere near certainty, even if you are not using terms such as "100%" blah blah blah, if you are stating matters in way too certain ways, then you are likely to get disagreement responses.. or just people telling you to shut up with your seeming sorcery nonsense.


I am not sure whether what I am saying is as severe as you seem to be trying to make it out to be.  Currently, all I am saying on a personal and more specific level is that the odds for down are 52% and the odds for up are 48%.  There is nothing outrageous about that because what I am saying is only slightly in favor of down, so the difference between the odds for up and down are not even very different from one another.. only just slightly in favor of down.


Hey, until we broke below $6k, I was frequently attacking various posters for "prematurely" saying that we were in a bear market.. but once we broke below $6k, such description seemed to have become more accurate... or at least fair.

By the way, I would not get on your case as much if you were asserting that we are in a bull market since 2009, but instead you are trying to frame your stupid ass position from 83 days.. which is ridiculous, especially since the peak of the price was more than a year ago, and you are merely trying to select the last 83 days from that in order to make your claim.   So to give you a hint, I would likely not be so combative against your position if you were at least picking a point before December 2017 as your starting point, and you would have to go back to September 2017 or earlier for that and for your claim to a bull market makes reasonable sense in terms of both facts and logic.

As your claim stands now 83 or even 84 days makes no sense because it is a mere selective presentation.


Are you trying to throw out all logic?  It's like when people are comparing politicians and varying levels of corruption. Sometimes at a certain point they just throw up their hands and assert that all politics are corrupt, even though there are degrees of corruption.


I don't think so.  You might be admitting to guessing.  I am not admitting to that.  I am attempting to assign probabilities to various outcomes.  Yes, I might end up being wrong, but I am not guessing.


Maybe that is part of the flaw in your presentation, if you try to assume too much about community expectations and what is presumed to be our logical or factual starting point(s)?


I agree.  You don't have to do that.  Each of us have different ways of expressing our ideas, and also I understand in real world parlance there is a tendency to speak in absolutes.  However, if we are dealing with differing opinions shared on the interwebs, there might be ways that are more effective and less effective in terms of avoiding combative responses, if you are trying to avoid combative responses.  No matter what there is going to be some negative feedback, too.  That comes with the territory of active participation in a vast majority of public threads.


So far so good.  I only called you names a few times, and so far, you have only called me names a few times, so maybe we are mostly staying on-topic?



Now that you went through your whole litany of responses, what is your reason for your belief that we are in a bull market?  When did your belief trigger?  On December 16, as soon as the onslaught was over?  You have been making the assertion for a while, so at what point did it start?  How do you define reversal? What points triggered "reversal"?  Merely your belief and guess?

I bought a little on this small dip.

hahahahaha

I guess my thinking is not straight on the topic then.  My idea of minimum standards and anti-fragility might be pie in the sky?  Perhaps?  because I do not consider bitcoin to be dead under those kinds of extreme flat conditions... though if it really does happen, then I might reconsider if I believe that, then, it is time to convert from thinking of the BTC price situation as a bull market and having had transformed out of our current ongoing bear market (until otherwise*) status.'

(*o.k.  Lambie, I am stealing some of your descriptive choices and reframing such descriptions in my own way of thinking about the matter.. you probably stole that phraseology first, so I am not too worried about it.    )

We might be close to agreement in part of this here statement, but let me explain a bit. 

This is not about whether anyone is getting "beaten down" or losing spirits, so we do not cheerlead in order to attempt to change the truth or the reality that we are in, but a significant difference in how a market is labelled would cause different outcomes in the assignment of probabilities for BTC price direction.

For example, in a bear market the probability for down might be 52/48  however in a bull market that probability for down might shift to 48/52.  It's an attempt at an objective assignment about probabilities NOT about how any one feels in particular.  Feelings don't matter very much when assigning probabilities, and they also might get in the way of reality to attempt to take them into account in terms of how you judge the market or how you might want others to feel about the BTC price or market situation.



Agreed.  We are not going to use some of the traditional market measures here both because bitcoin is not anywhere near a mature market, and bitcoin is very likely in an scurve exponential adoption curve that overall skews its whole price performance dynamics more in terms of UP and explosive up, even though sometimes in the short term the explosive up dynamics and possibilities can get lost in the mix.


It may feel arbitrary, and that is why I attempted to set forth some dynamics in which I would be ready and willing to change the label that I assign.



I don't know about that.  There may be some truth that there is no other asset class exactly like BTC previously or in the future, but once BTC matures, its market dynamics are likely going to change as well to those dynamics of a more mature market where traditional tools might become more applicable to it, perhaps?


Even if subsequently, it is decided that the bullmarket started, as you said in December 2018, it does not change the current dynamic that we are not yet in such bullmarket in terms of current reasonable and prudent assignment of short term BTC price dynamic possibilities.  Currently, those market dynamics remain in favor of down, which is thus a bear market, so calling it otherwise is erroneous at least and perhaps deceptive.


Could be a fair analogy.


fair enough.. but who cares?  The odds were against such trashy team until a certain momentum point.


Again, you can cheer all you want, but it does not change dynamics.  The outcome is not inevitable, and even though the outcome ends up becoming 100%, once it happens, it does not change the dynamics that the outcome might have been 48% two months earlier. or even two days before when the unlikely outcome ended up actually happening against the odds.

It is stupid and irresponsible to call any outcome as 100%, especially when in the future.



You can believe all you want, that does not change where we are at, currently, which is in a bear market with 48/52 or whatever odds in favor/against short term up or phrased another way the bottom NOT actually being "in"..

via Imgflip Meme Generator

I don’t know exactly what it is, but surely there is place for r0ach as well......

It is not a prediction.  It is a description of various possible scenarios.  

Accordingly, those are conditions in which I am planning to convert my assessment of the current BTC market dynamics from current status of bear to bull.

Fair enough.  Some of those troll/shill/bitcoin naysayers will either come around to bitcoin earlier or they are stacking satoshis on the side, but you are correct that a more sound strategy would be to stack satoshis and discontinue with the bitcoin bashing... so buy the time $100k comes (assuming it does), they will at least be in the more than 1 BTC club, and better yet if they could stack enough to either get into the double digit BTC club or the 21 club.

Even "roach wannabes" can have some humor in them.    Go figure. 

$6k by December 2019

$10k by mid 2020

New ATH at start 2021

Then POMP

Seems to me Lambie Slayer is a nice person. Would like to meet him @ the 100k party next year. 

Makes me want to insult you, just for spite.


Like I already said, I am not going to spend any time reading through edits like the non-conventional and confusing way that you presented those earlier ones.  That's what trolls do.  They create make-shift work for honest and regular people, and in the process attempt to confuse matters when they are not engaging in distracting and gratuitous personal attacks.  

In other words, even though I am tentatively inclined to believe that you are a troll, I am willing to test drive this riding lawn mower tractor for a wee bit longer...  hopefully it won't beak down and just for shits and giggles.  

I am not going to spend any amount of time to read any of your various changes (strikethrough, bold or whatever your intrusions) to my earlier post because that style of communication is confusing at best and more likely just childishly leading to no where beyond a kind of spinning of wheels and ongoing evasion of substance - which seems to be your MO and coincidentally, the MO of many trolls.... What a coincidence!!!!



I don't mind being admired.  It does happen, once in a [great] while.  hahahahaha

No.  It is not that big of a deal.  People share opinions and they sometimes differ in opinions.


Well, if that were actually true, then hopefully we will be able to experience some better exchanges of ideas.. We will see.


Sounds like an olive branch.. but I suppose time will tell.


I hope so.


Way too premature to call, of course.

Already did.  Been there; done that.

Did I say that this was about how I felt?   I am responding largely to your attempt to reframe history with rose colored glasses, merely because after the fact we know what happened, even though while it was happening, we did not know, and there was very little confidence in the space.

By the way, if you know anything about me, you should not even be attempting to conclude that I was lacking bitcoin conviction in 2015, and my historical posts in this thread likely show a whole hell of a lot more conviction than what your posts from back then show, at least in terms of what I did with my portfolio was continue to buy during that period.  What were you doing then?



1st you are repeating your assertion that I was supposedly depressed in some kind of a way beyond anyone else, and like I already said, my assessment of the market situation during that time was not about me, but about what was going on at that time in terms of price movement, that you mischaracterize in false and misleading framework.


misplaced concreteness... What does my avatar got to do with anything?    


I am attacking your opinions.  As you may realize, I stay salty.


Again.. think about ideas, rather than taking matters personally.  I am largely attacking your nonsense approach and attempt to impose baloney pie in the sky definitions....   Actually, didn't you say that you were done here, at one point, after you had supposedly accomplished some slaying, you were going to leave.. but no, we are not so lucky to have you leave.  


Fuck, everyone can see Im miserable and post endless words for therapy.


Yes, I did comment recently about being stressed from being around family. Good point sir.


yes, my back hurts a lot


Yes, you are getting to the important part, bolded above.  You don't know, but I would never admit it anyway.


In this context, the main thing off with me, is lashing countless W. observers over the last five years, no matter how civil they were to me.


Yes, you caught me having a salty cunt episode, sorry bro, Ill work on being a better person.  You are the one who posted the provocative truthspie in the sky claims about the supposed current state of bitcoin.  I just responded to that with insults which was a twattish thing to do, I will try and be better I swear, its not too late to work on improving my mental state, I dont want to end up like Roach.  You are the one who wants to attempt to convert this into some kind of personal matter correct for calling me out.


O.k.  No problem with that.. if you can try to address the substance, then that would be great.. Also, if you moderate your imposing and presumptuous assertions about he BTC price direction, that would be great, too.. My cunt gets a salty feeling when your view of market conditions doesnt fit mine exactly. You see I have written more words than than any poster on Bitcointalk.org and for this I feel I am entitled to be pissy when someone is more Bullish than me.


Great an attempt at substance.  Yes. I can agree with you that there has been approximately 82 days since the low of this correction cycle and I can agree with you that the halvening is coming up in nearly 15 months.  So those are both bullish matters, yet I don't see why you feel some kind of compelling need to jump to a "bull market" or a "baby bull market" label based on those?


Yes, you are repeating your nonsense here.  The bear market likely came in about mid-November 2018 when the BTC price dropped from $6k to $3k and did not quickly rebound... If we could have snapped out of that quickly and back to $6k then we would have likely not have gone into a bear market, but instead we did... sucks, but for now, we are in a bear market until breaking above certain price points.  I had described them before, but anyhow, you are the one who has the burden, if anyone.... and it get's worse when you are attempting to make your illogical assertion of a wishful thinking bull market with little to no context.  blah blah

Of course, I will be more than happy if you are correct about the "bottom being in", but I am not going to get my hopes up merely because you keep repeating non-substantiated and unconvincing conclusory statements about the bright and rosey status of our current BTC price inclination situation.


Actually, I agree with you about this part.  Maybe it is the one sentence of your whole post that kind of makes a tiny, itsy bitsy amount of sense.  

I personally believe that bears are going to push the BTC price down and keep the BTC price down for as long and as low as they can and at a certain point they are likely going to run out of coins.  Part of the problem is that we cannot really know how much coins they have and how determined they are.  Surely, there can be problems with the ability of some corrupt players to print as much money as they need in order to engage in this activity at a loss, but even historically, we have seen that sometimes, they just cannot get the price to go down anymore and the least resistance ends up being UP rather than DOWN.  Still, a problem is NOT really, knowing for how long and how low they can get it and what tools they may be using to get coins perhaps OTC and then transferring to exchanges to dump.. yet sometimes, they run out of coins... but when ?  when?  a million dollar question.


All I know is that you keep repeating this false claim and untruth, which makes you look either like a naive person or like a troll or shill of some sort. Sorry I lashed out bc every time I think you dont completely agree with me my cunt gets that same old salty itch.