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Nobody ever said 100 percent. Nothing is 100 percent, this is just obvious. You say its stupid to call an outcome 100 percent, well I agree with this, never claimed 100 percent accuracy, and will point out this is no revelation.
Words have meaning. So sometimes your words will add up to too high of a level of certainty, so even if the implied meaning is less than 100%, the words are still committing too much to describing the future with too high degrees of certainty.
You have your opinions on probabilities that we are in a Bear Market, I have my opinions on probabilities that we are in a Bull Market and the bottom is in.
No problem. I never suggested that people have to agree here, but if you start saying ridiculous things, that can cause responses from peeps like me.
Neither one of us can prove it, only time will do that.
There is no need to prove a prediction. Anyone can make predictions; however, if you express predictions as anywhere near certainty, even if you are not using terms such as "100%" blah blah blah, if you are stating matters in way too certain ways, then you are likely to get disagreement responses.. or just people telling you to shut up with your seeming sorcery nonsense.
Parading your opinion that market conditions favor down as fact would be deceptive.
I am not sure whether what I am saying is as severe as you seem to be trying to make it out to be. Currently, all I am saying on a personal and more specific level is that the odds for down are 52% and the odds for up are 48%. There is nothing outrageous about that because what I am saying is only slightly in favor of down, so the difference between the odds for up and down are not even very different from one another.. only just slightly in favor of down.
This is an observation, not an accusation.
Hey, until we broke below $6k, I was frequently attacking various posters for "prematurely" saying that we were in a bear market.. but once we broke below $6k, such description seemed to have become more accurate... or at least fair.
By the way, I would not get on your case as much if you were asserting that we are in a bull market since 2009, but instead you are trying to frame your stupid ass position from 83 days.. which is ridiculous, especially since the peak of the price was more than a year ago, and you are merely trying to select the last 83 days from that in order to make your claim. So to give you a hint, I would likely not be so combative against your position if you were at least picking a point before December 2017 as your starting point, and you would have to go back to September 2017 or earlier for that and for your claim to a bull market makes reasonable sense in terms of both facts and logic.
As your claim stands now 83 or even 84 days makes no sense because it is a mere selective presentation.
Admitting its just what you think and anything is possible is fair and honest. Its just your best guess.
Are you trying to throw out all logic? It's like when people are comparing politicians and varying levels of corruption. Sometimes at a certain point they just throw up their hands and assert that all politics are corrupt, even though there are degrees of corruption.
We are all guessing when it comes to predicting the future.
I don't think so. You might be admitting to guessing. I am not admitting to that. I am attempting to assign probabilities to various outcomes. Yes, I might end up being wrong, but I am not guessing.
I figured this was a given, but I dont mind pointing it out if its not.
Maybe that is part of the flaw in your presentation, if you try to assume too much about community expectations and what is presumed to be our logical or factual starting point(s)?
Nobody expects every post to have a boilerplate disclaimer paragraph at the bottom of each post explaining how its possible that their predictions might not be 100 percent correct.
I agree. You don't have to do that. Each of us have different ways of expressing our ideas, and also I understand in real world parlance there is a tendency to speak in absolutes. However, if we are dealing with differing opinions shared on the interwebs, there might be ways that are more effective and less effective in terms of avoiding combative responses, if you are trying to avoid combative responses. No matter what there is going to be some negative feedback, too. That comes with the territory of active participation in a vast majority of public threads.
Anyway, thanks for the civil response.
So far so good. I only called you names a few times, and so far, you have only called me names a few times, so maybe we are mostly staying on-topic?
I still firmly believe we are 83 days into a Bull Market. This is my current view and only a break to new lows or some major fundamental change will change my opinion.
Now that you went through your whole litany of responses, what is your reason for your belief that we are in a bull market? When did your belief trigger? On December 16, as soon as the onslaught was over? You have been making the assertion for a while, so at what point did it start? How do you define reversal? What points triggered "reversal"? Merely your belief and guess?
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