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Question: Closing BTC Price June 28:
$0 - 5 (3.5%)
<$7,000 - 4 (2.8%)
$7,000-$7,499 - 0 (0%)
$7,500-$7,999 - 0 (0%)
$8,000-$8,499 - 1 (0.7%)
$8,500-$8,999 - 3 (2.1%)
$9,000-$9,499 - 4 (2.8%)
$9,500-$9,999 - 26 (18.2%)
$10,000-$10,499 - 23 (16.1%)
$10,500-10,999 - 12 (8.4%)
$11,000-$11,499 - 13 (9.1%)
$11,500-$12,000 - 10 (7%)
>$12,000 - 31 (21.7%)
>$20,000 - 11 (7.7%)
Total Voters: 143

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21241270 times)
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March 08, 2019, 11:40:05 PM

According to the 2014 / 15 crypto market schedule, the train is running on time.


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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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March 08, 2019, 11:51:56 PM

[ edited out]

Nobody ever said 100 percent. Nothing is 100 percent, this is just obvious. You say its stupid to call an outcome 100 percent, well I agree with this, never claimed 100 percent accuracy, and will point out this is no revelation.  

Words have meaning.  So sometimes your words will add up to too high of a level of certainty, so even if the implied meaning is less than 100%, the words are still committing too much to describing the future with too high degrees of certainty.

You have your opinions on probabilities that we are in a Bear Market, I have my opinions on probabilities that we are in a Bull Market and the bottom is in.

No problem.  I never suggested that people have to agree here, but if you start saying ridiculous things, that can cause responses from peeps like me.

Neither one of us can prove it, only time will do that.  

There is no need to prove a prediction.  Anyone can make predictions; however, if you express predictions as anywhere near certainty, even if you are not using terms such as "100%" blah blah blah, if you are stating matters in way too certain ways, then you are likely to get disagreement responses.. or just people telling you to shut up with your seeming sorcery nonsense.

Parading your opinion that market conditions favor down as fact would be deceptive.

I am not sure whether what I am saying is as severe as you seem to be trying to make it out to be.  Currently, all I am saying on a personal and more specific level is that the odds for down are 52% and the odds for up are 48%.  There is nothing outrageous about that because what I am saying is only slightly in favor of down, so the difference between the odds for up and down are not even very different from one another.. only just slightly in favor of down.

This is an observation, not an accusation.

Hey, until we broke below $6k, I was frequently attacking various posters for "prematurely" saying that we were in a bear market.. but once we broke below $6k, such description seemed to have become more accurate... or at least fair.

By the way, I would not get on your case as much if you were asserting that we are in a bull market since 2009, but instead you are trying to frame your stupid ass position from 83 days.. which is ridiculous, especially since the peak of the price was more than a year ago, and you are merely trying to select the last 83 days from that in order to make your claim.   So to give you a hint, I would likely not be so combative against your position if you were at least picking a point before December 2017 as your starting point, and you would have to go back to September 2017 or earlier for that and for your claim to a bull market makes reasonable sense in terms of both facts and logic.

As your claim stands now 83 or even 84 days makes no sense because it is a mere selective presentation.

Admitting its just what you think and anything is possible is fair and honest. Its just your best guess.

Are you trying to throw out all logic?  It's like when people are comparing politicians and varying levels of corruption. Sometimes at a certain point they just throw up their hands and assert that all politics are corrupt, even though there are degrees of corruption.

We are all guessing when it comes to predicting the future.

I don't think so.  You might be admitting to guessing.  I am not admitting to that.  I am attempting to assign probabilities to various outcomes.  Yes, I might end up being wrong, but I am not guessing.

I figured this was a given, but I dont mind pointing it out if its not.

Maybe that is part of the flaw in your presentation, if you try to assume too much about community expectations and what is presumed to be our logical or factual starting point(s)?

Nobody expects every post to have a boilerplate disclaimer paragraph at the bottom of each post explaining how its possible that their predictions might not be 100 percent correct.

I agree.  You don't have to do that.  Each of us have different ways of expressing our ideas, and also I understand in real world parlance there is a tendency to speak in absolutes.  However, if we are dealing with differing opinions shared on the interwebs, there might be ways that are more effective and less effective in terms of avoiding combative responses, if you are trying to avoid combative responses.  No matter what there is going to be some negative feedback, too.  That comes with the territory of active participation in a vast majority of public threads.

Anyway, thanks for the civil response.  Smiley

So far so good.  I only called you names a few times, and so far, you have only called me names a few times, so maybe we are mostly staying on-topic?


I still firmly believe we are 83 days into a Bull Market. This is my current view and only a break to new lows or some major fundamental change will change my opinion.  Grin

Now that you went through your whole litany of responses, what is your reason for your belief that we are in a bull market?  When did your belief trigger?  On December 16, as soon as the onslaught was over?  You have been making the assertion for a while, so at what point did it start?  How do you define reversal? What points triggered "reversal"?  Merely your belief and guess?
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March 08, 2019, 11:53:41 PM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

Given the upward slope of every long term support/trend line, $3,320 in 11 months would put is in bad shape, as I believe it would violate pretty much all long term bull lines.

hahahahaha

I guess my thinking is not straight on the topic then.  My idea of minimum standards and anti-fragility might be pie in the sky?  Perhaps?  because I do not consider bitcoin to be dead under those kinds of extreme flat conditions... though if it really does happen, then I might reconsider if I believe that, then, it is time to convert from thinking of the BTC price situation as a bull market and having had transformed out of our current ongoing bear market (until otherwise*) status.'

(*o.k.  Lambie, I am stealing some of your descriptive choices and reframing such descriptions in my own way of thinking about the matter.. you probably stole that phraseology first, so I am not too worried about it.   Tongue Tongue)

Steal away my friend Cheesy Only so many words in the English language, we all have to steal something!

Sharing is caring.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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March 09, 2019, 12:02:27 AM

Less than 1% of the world’s population has used bitcoin.

More than 50% of the world’s population lives under an authoritarian regime.

Bitcoin may not be ready for you, but, it’s ready for them.

https://twitter.com/alecziupsnys/status/1104004855574773761?s=21
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March 09, 2019, 12:05:09 AM
Merited by micgoossens (1)

20 years of price changes in the United States...

Notice how government subsidized industries are the most expensive? 😮


College tuition in Belgium

Quote
Tuition fees at public universities and colleges in the French Community of Belgium are set by the regional government. For the academic year 2015/2016, tuition fees ranged from 374 to 836.96 EUR per year for EU students depending on their income and whether they are eligible for a grant/scholarship.

There are other reasons.  Don’t blame it on government subsidies
I'm in Europe and University has gone to shit here. The Bachelor/Master system is a complete downgrade and utter disgrace from what we had before in a country undisclosed. University is now school round two instead of being an institution that fosters research and critical thinking (in non-research students - which make up the majority of the student body). I was appalled at how cookie cutter Mathematics and Physics programs are and surprised at the resulting quality of graduates (before I realized the problem).

Also, thanks to university "being" (appearing) free, people who can't normally afford it are taking up bullshit recreational courses that don't produce any value in the Economy. I don't have anything against those and am interested in some of the topics myself. But when people get fooled into believing that they can study anything and get a job there's a problem. And when it's "free" they are ridden of any incentive to think about the implications of their actions.

I totally agree with you, especially regarding the The Bachelor/Master system.
But I also think that the government more or less pushing everybody in to university studies is to blame, it's become more like high school than university, with some exceptions.,When I studied in the late 80s early 90s it was still a bit special to study at a university, today it seems more or less mandatory.

The last point is also quite interesting. It really does seem as if a degree was mandatory.

But in reality, any self-driven and somewhat disciplined person would be able to learn much more by just not going to university and focusing on their profession of choice. University takes up too much time on mundane repetitive nonsense that doesn't teach you anything of value and takes time away from building a portfolio of work, while simultaneously driving most students into just blatantly copying assignments without learning anything.


When I was teaching I had to give classes and correct assignments, and 70% of them were identical (including spelling and grammatical errors).

As a job it was nice, because I'd have one pile of assignments where I marked the first one and then only copied off the final points, without any notes. That resulted in an hourly wage of over 60 Euros.

But when thinking about the implications for society that's just sad.


Which doesn't mean that University (even in it's current state) has no place at all, as anyone who needs someone or something to kick their asses to be productive can still benefit from them. But in most cases they just exacerbate the underlying problem that starts in elementary school. Namely turning curious and motivated kids into retarded unmotivated copy/paste drones.
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March 09, 2019, 12:06:12 AM

According to the 2014 / 15 crypto market schedule, the train is running on time.



This really is a fractal



So much that it is scary. I mean, if at any time it breaks the pattern......
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March 09, 2019, 12:10:25 AM

I am kinda anti anything when it comes to big businesses but I have to say that I do enjoy it when Google puts together something worthwhile, such as their tribute to International Women's Day.

All you misogynists should take the time to look through some of the incredible achievements that women have accomplished.

Happy wahmen's day.



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PIW (precious independent woman) gotta love them ..... if they are in you’re range of availibility Smiley
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March 09, 2019, 12:14:05 AM

20 years of price changes in the United States...

Notice how government subsidized industries are the most expensive?


College tuition in Belgium

Quote
Tuition fees at public universities and colleges in the French Community of Belgium are set by the regional government. For the academic year 2015/2016, tuition fees ranged from 374 to 836.96 EUR per year for EU students depending on their income and whether they are eligible for a grant/scholarship.

There are other reasons.  Don’t blame it on government subsidies
I'm in Europe and University has gone to shit here. The Bachelor/Master system is a complete downgrade and utter disgrace from what we had before in a country undisclosed. University is now school round two instead of being an institution that fosters research and critical thinking (in non-research students - which make up the majority of the student body). I was appalled at how cookie cutter Mathematics and Physics programs are and surprised at the resulting quality of graduates (before I realized the problem).

Also, thanks to university "being" (appearing) free, people who can't normally afford it are taking up bullshit recreational courses that don't produce any value in the Economy. I don't have anything against those and am interested in some of the topics myself. But when people get fooled into believing that they can study anything and get a job there's a problem. And when it's "free" they are ridden of any incentive to think about the implications of their actions.

I totally agree with you, especially regarding the The Bachelor/Master system.
But I also think that the government more or less pushing everybody in to university studies is to blame, it's become more like high school than university, with some exceptions.,When I studied in the late 80s early 90s it was still a bit special to study at a university, today it seems more or less mandatory.

The last point is also quite interesting. It really does seem as if a degree was mandatory.

But in reality, any self-driven and somewhat disciplined person would be able to learn much more by just not going to university and focusing on their profession of choice. University takes up too much time on mundane repetitive nonsense that doesn't teach you anything of value and takes time away from building a portfolio of work, while simultaneously driving most students into just blatantly copying assignments without learning anything.


When I was teaching I had to give classes and correct assignments, and 70% of them were identical (including spelling and grammatical errors).

As a job it was nice, because I'd have one pile of assignments where I marked the first one and then only copied off the final points, without any notes. That resulted in an hourly wage of over 60 Euros.

But when thinking about the implications for society that's just sad.


Which doesn't mean that University (even in it's current state) has no place at all, as anyone who needs someone or something to kick their asses to be productive can still benefit from them. But in most cases they just exacerbate the underlying problem that starts in elementary school. Namely turning curious and motivated kids into retarded unmotivated copy/paste drones.

Dammit i become one of those copy/paste robot drones Roll Eyes
Twitter—>copy—-> paste Roll Eyes

WoW of to the next place, this local El Nido AirPort is so small, check in, walk out into the plain (love those fast AirPorts)
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March 09, 2019, 12:26:20 AM

Because more of the population needs to be there the level has been degraded on purpose. The degrees are inflated like fiat currency.

Especially the alpha studies are complete nonsense with mandatory attendance based grading. With the ever more free availability of information I think the future of universities as part of the education system will come to an end in the next decades allowing them to focus on research once more.

btw: Did you read about the US university last week which wants to start grading on effort instead of merit. LMFAO!
Not in the least surprised, although this is the first time I've heard of it. If governments would block that I would consider being for them, but they just make almost everything worse that they touch. Mostly because politicians aren't required to be the intellectual elite of the world, or even base their actions on logic and reason with public accountability.


The one and only thing that I am on the fence about with regard to governments is the rule of law. I appreciate that, although I am not 100% sure how much it's doing. I don't see humans allowing scum to roam freely, regardless of government intervention. Things might be much more brutal and cutthroat without, but then people would think twice before acting up.

Not saying that the rule of law is bad and I'm certainly not willing to take the risk of dropping it even for an experiment, but I'm not fully convinced that it's as important as it seems. Still, that's about the one and only thing that I can think of that I would give governments credit for. And even then, it mostly exists to protect the people in power with everything else being a pleasant side-effect. Everything else so far seems to be more harmful than productive, even if the supposed goals are, from time to time, positive.
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March 09, 2019, 12:30:46 AM

via Imgflip Meme Generator

Can use one of these Wink
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March 09, 2019, 12:42:52 AM

via Imgflip Meme Generator

https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1103988093793783809?s=21
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March 09, 2019, 12:51:18 AM

https://www.nextgov.com/emerging-tech/2019/03/us-marshals-want-help-disposing-virtual-currencies/155381/
Quote
Stored cryptocurrencies must be kept in a segregated digital wallet set aside specifically for the Marshals Service and must be safeguarded against “theft, human error, system failures and acts of God,” the documents state. The contractor must also be able to “brute force,” or be able to hack into, wallets that are “locked by error or technical difficulties,” enabling marshals to gain access no matter what happens.

On the disposal side, the winning vendor must be able to convert the digital currencies to physical money, either by exchanging directly to U.S. dollars, exchanging for more liquid virtual currencies and assets or through a sealed-bid auction. The contractor must also have a mechanism for returning seized assets to the original owners when required.
....
Has anyone made projections on potential permanent loss of Bitcoins resulting from seizure due to criminal activity over time?
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March 09, 2019, 12:58:16 AM

https://gizmodo.com/u-s-army-assures-public-that-robot-tank-system-adheres-1833061674
Quote
In its request, the Army asked for help enabling the Advanced Targeting and Lethality Automated System (ATLAS) to “acquire, identify, and engage targets at least 3X faster than the current manual process.” But that language apparently scared some people who are worried about the rise of AI-powered killing machines.



meanwhile the price is really trying to go up

I never understood the whole human fetish. Sure, we might be in human shells, but how exactly is it bad to swap them out once possible? We've technically done so through evolution anyways, so nothing new is happening here other than the increased speed.

I'm also pretty sure that virtually nobody would say no if they could swap between flying around as a bird and their usual human shell. This isn't really any different other than a gross misunderstanding of what constitutes as life.
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March 09, 2019, 01:09:28 AM
Merited by BTCMILLIONAIRE (1)

Exactly, it's about being an individual, a personality. The physical form is secondary (yet bound to some minimum requirements regarding sensing, interacting and mobility to be able to develop personality to a sufficient degree).

I see AI or "non-biological" form or some hybrid solution the next evolutionary leap. Yes it can be evolution if it's designed as many things will be designed and compete for survival.
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March 09, 2019, 01:14:54 AM

Funny how accurate the tweet is. Here's a comment from the video:

"Tom7
1 day ago
Exciting times. So glad all the NPCs parroting "BSV is a scam" will not be a part of this future, Bitcoin is truly an IQ test. "

And his avatar is the Indian guy wearing clothes made of gold.



And while I'm not sure it means much, since I'm quite biased against SV, the guy in the video looks disingenuous as hell and like the type of person I would never drop my guard around.
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March 09, 2019, 01:16:04 AM

[ edited out]

Nobody ever said 100 percent. Nothing is 100 percent, this is just obvious. You say its stupid to call an outcome 100 percent, well I agree with this, never claimed 100 percent accuracy, and will point out this is no revelation.  

Words have meaning.  So sometimes your words will add up to too high of a level of certainty, so even if the implied meaning is less than 100%, the words are still committing too much to describing the future with too high degrees of certainty.

You have your opinions on probabilities that we are in a Bear Market, I have my opinions on probabilities that we are in a Bull Market and the bottom is in.

No problem.  I never suggested that people have to agree here, but if you start saying ridiculous things, that can cause responses from peeps like me.

Neither one of us can prove it, only time will do that.  

There is no need to prove a prediction.  Anyone can make predictions; however, if you express predictions as anywhere near certainty, even if you are not using terms such as "100%" blah blah blah, if you are stating matters in way too certain ways, then you are likely to get disagreement responses.. or just people telling you to shut up with your seeming sorcery nonsense.

Parading your opinion that market conditions favor down as fact would be deceptive.

I am not sure whether what I am saying is as severe as you seem to be trying to make it out to be.  Currently, all I am saying on a personal and more specific level is that the odds for down are 52% and the odds for up are 48%.  There is nothing outrageous about that because what I am saying is only slightly in favor of down, so the difference between the odds for up and down are not even very different from one another.. only just slightly in favor of down.

This is an observation, not an accusation.

Hey, until we broke below $6k, I was frequently attacking various posters for "prematurely" saying that we were in a bear market.. but once we broke below $6k, such description seemed to have become more accurate... or at least fair.

By the way, I would not get on your case as much if you were asserting that we are in a bull market since 2009, but instead you are trying to frame your stupid ass position from 83 days.. which is ridiculous, especially since the peak of the price was more than a year ago, and you are merely trying to select the last 83 days from that in order to make your claim.   So to give you a hint, I would likely not be so combative against your position if you were at least picking a point before December 2017 as your starting point, and you would have to go back to September 2017 or earlier for that and for your claim to a bull market makes reasonable sense in terms of both facts and logic.

As your claim stands now 83 or even 84 days makes no sense because it is a mere selective presentation.

Admitting its just what you think and anything is possible is fair and honest. Its just your best guess.

Are you trying to throw out all logic?  It's like when people are comparing politicians and varying levels of corruption. Sometimes at a certain point they just throw up their hands and assert that all politics are corrupt, even though there are degrees of corruption.

We are all guessing when it comes to predicting the future.

I don't think so.  You might be admitting to guessing.  I am not admitting to that.  I am attempting to assign probabilities to various outcomes.  Yes, I might end up being wrong, but I am not guessing.

I figured this was a given, but I dont mind pointing it out if its not.

Maybe that is part of the flaw in your presentation, if you try to assume too much about community expectations and what is presumed to be our logical or factual starting point(s)?

Nobody expects every post to have a boilerplate disclaimer paragraph at the bottom of each post explaining how its possible that their predictions might not be 100 percent correct.

I agree.  You don't have to do that.  Each of us have different ways of expressing our ideas, and also I understand in real world parlance there is a tendency to speak in absolutes.  However, if we are dealing with differing opinions shared on the interwebs, there might be ways that are more effective and less effective in terms of avoiding combative responses, if you are trying to avoid combative responses.  No matter what there is going to be some negative feedback, too.  That comes with the territory of active participation in a vast majority of public threads.

Anyway, thanks for the civil response.  Smiley

So far so good.  I only called you names a few times, and so far, you have only called me names a few times, so maybe we are mostly staying on-topic?


I still firmly believe we are 83 days into a Bull Market. This is my current view and only a break to new lows or some major fundamental change will change my opinion.  Grin

Now that you went through your whole litany of responses, what is your reason for your belief that we are in a bull market?  When did your belief trigger?  On December 16, as soon as the onslaught was over?  You have been making the assertion for a while, so at what point did it start?  How do you define reversal? What points triggered "reversal"?  Merely your belief and guess?

I missed the name calling on both sides. Glad we agree on the boilerplate part. As far as labeling our probabilities of future outcomes as guesses, I stand by that. The scientific method is based on hypotheses which are educated guesses based on prior knowledge and observation. Im not implying your guesses are random dart throws, but the implication is we make our best guesses, based on prior knowledge and observation. If you arent guessing, then you would be 100 percent certain. Basically you might not prefer my word choice(no worries), but it is accurate based on widely accepted definitions.

As for answering your last questions. These are good questions and while I do enjoy sharing my hypothesis that the bottom is in and the bull market is upon us, I at this time am not willing to share all of the inner workings and procedures that led to this decision, so I will have to respectfully decline those questions. Some of my knowledge and procedures I consider to be "proprietary" for lack of a better word. Im not selling anything to anyone, but it is the fruit of my labor from 16 years of investing and trading so I will keep the sauce recipe to myself. I will be serving that sauce though on Bear Meat to anyone who would like a sample Grin

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March 09, 2019, 01:18:28 AM

According to the 2014 / 15 crypto market schedule, the train is running on time.



This really is a fractal



So much that it is scary. I mean, if at any time it breaks the pattern......
Scary? Imagine if she keeps it, or breaks up.
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March 09, 2019, 01:22:36 AM

According to the 2014 / 15 crypto market schedule, the train is running on time.



This really is a fractal



So much that it is scary. I mean, if at any time it breaks the pattern......
Scary? Imagine if she keeps it, or breaks up.


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March 09, 2019, 01:28:53 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Dammit i become one of those copy/paste robot drones Roll Eyes
Twitter—>copy—-> paste Roll Eyes

WoW of to the next place, this local El Nido AirPort is so small, check in, walk out into the plain (love those fast AirPorts)
Copy/paste has its place. There's no need to reinvent the wheel every single time.

To elaborate on my previous post. Copy/paste becomes a problem when it becomes the natural mindset for every situation with no attempts to generate unique thoughts. Also, people who fall into that category truly believe that whatever they happened to copy/paste is truth.
It also stops people from even considering other options, because school teaches you that one specific set of solutions is right, while others don't matter and/or are plain wrong. Reality could not be any further from that though.
Children are generally curious and open to everything, this changes once they hit school (or once their parents get tired of them asking questions).
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March 09, 2019, 01:30:50 AM

According to the 2014 / 15 crypto market schedule, the train is running on time.



This really is a fractal



So much that it is scary. I mean, if at any time it breaks the pattern......
Scary? Imagine if she keeps it, or breaks up.

I am in "capitulation" mode, remember. I am prepared for the worst... for the best I don't need to.

I don't like everyone is expecting to keep the pattern or even breaking up from it. We need more blood, depression and despair before a solid ath-worthy bull run.

That being said, today's bounce was nice even if with a shitty volume.
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