Exactly!!!

Starting to seem like a story that is not related to this thread. 

At first, there might be questions about why is the bitcoin price moving?  Why is it moving in this direction or that direction?  How come it is still moving?  After a while, the initial "cause" whether actually liquidy related or FUD related becomes priced in, especially when it seems to have been rehashed FUD from more than a year, and repeated attempts to maximize on such. 


Further, the Tether topic might be become like the "china bans bitcoin" topic.  It loses effects with the passage of time, but still sometimes might work on the margins to push further to get passed a certain tipping point.

Maybe "proof of delusion can become reality"?


Hey, don't give up.  As I typed my earlier post, I actually started to become more persuaded that a certain amount of money could actually cause the "supermodel trophy wife" to become true.


If she already wanted you for what you already have, then you would already have her.  I personally believe that even if the chick (aka "supermodel trophy wife") is high maintenance, you still have to have some game (otherwise known as negotiation/boundary creation skills) to attempt to keep her expectations in check; otherwise, she will just rob you for everything that you got (including crypto and pet canary), and you would have wished that you have never met such chick.


you don't want to tell exotic dancers about your crypto... Actually, we have discussed this before, and some guys don't even want to tell their wives.. and I am of a bit of a mixed sentiment, even though I do attempt live by some kind of modification of fight club credo as applied to bitcoin, which is:  Rule 1) "talk about bitcoin"  Rule 2, "don't talk about your bitcoin"


Hey, you are not alone.  My variation is not much different than yours.  Of course, I sell some on the way up and use that money to buy on the way down, but even when we get to the top, I tend to be holding around 90%, so I am not selling a whole hell-of-a lot.

Other HODLing techniques might work, but I am comfortable with mine.  Your thought about your HODLing technique might cause you to tweak it, perhaps?  Perhaps?  Perhaps?


Sounds like you have a bit of a dilemma, and I don't know the resolution.... except maybe to use some of the funds for travel.. but I know some guys don't like to travel, but I think that some kind(s) of travel can be more interesting and fun to get away from the local girls... at least for variety sake and it will also give you some more  interesting stories to tell the local girls during your periods of being local (even if you might end up making some of the shit up).. hahahahahaha.

Almost makes me feel like changing my avatar...

Get out of my way, V8!!!!!!

It is even worse than it appears when you seem more context and a few more angles.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRUBj2PTtL8

So far, we don't really talk about Tone Vays in this thread, but I am sure that a large number of WO thread posters generally understand the position of Tone Vays to be inclined towards believing that a correction is necessary before BTC prices can resume upwards.

Tone Vays also proclaims NOT to trade on his own trading advice because he asserts that he does not have enough time to do so, which seems a bit of an overstatement (especially when he spends a considerable amount of time giving advice about methodologies for trading BTC and uses current charts in order to predict short-term price directions). 

Again, your tendency to find a doom scenario in good news, correct?






That is called :   Koreck!!!!   

Gosh!!!!!  I don't think that "supermodel trophy wifes" come (even one of them) merely based on having a lot of money...

Let's say BTC prices shoot up from current prices to $1million per BTC within the next year, and let's say that you both had 100 BTC and you were able to hang onto all of them during the price rise and you cashed out at $1million  - easy peasy...!!!!  Viola!!!!  $100 million available -
 minus taxes, of course, but that would be 15% capital gains - leaving $85 million.    

I suppose that should be enough to keep any high maintenance girl happy, right?


What you gonna call the proof?  Proof of work, proof of steak, proof of trophy acquisition or something else?

I mentioned this in my response to ivomm, which was that I was attempting to work with ivomm's framework, which was a range of dates that approximate the next two halvenings.  Sure, we could be a bit more precise in our prediction attempts if we pick a specific date rather than a range of dates, but that kind of a practice also might be getting too caught up about the price on a particular date (and being correct) rather than to merely ballpark the concept which is more likely what we do in our brains in real life anyhow when we are approximating the probabilities of events that might happen in the future.  Sometimes, we might attempt to be precise, but likely a lot of times, we ballpark our views and predictions and just go on with our lives with certain frameworks in our heads (that we have to adjust with the passage of time and the learning of new information). 

In my thinking, it does not matter so much about whether we end up being correct, but merely what we believe now, how we prepare based on our thoughts and the extent to which we tweak along the way while information and presumptions are likely to change along the way.

Actually, TReano, you did not even summarize the predictions accurately, because I assigned probabilities to prices below $1k and above $1million, but I did not believe it would be necessary, at this time, to specify in more detail in the outside of the range.

Anyhow, that's how predicting the future works.  If you are attempting to be honest with yourself, then you assign probabilities to the future that are between 0% and 100% rather than asserting absolutism that merely simplifies without really providing guidance - beyond gambling.

Maybe I should not ask a troll/shill a question, but I will bite just to press my luck that you might provide a meaningful answer (low probability bet, but what the heck)... Here we go:   What is your system of predicting the future BTC price, TReano?    time frame of 2-3 years and 6-7 years?

I was trying my best to use your initial framework, and then to elaborate on the same framework.

So, in the 2-3 years time frame that you had mentioned, I assigned less than 3% chance that BTC would be below $1k, 8%-12% chances that BTC prices would be $1k to $3k and 10%-15% chance that BTC prices would be between $3k and $5k.... I am not really attempting to predict what BTC prices would do before that 2-3year time window, but just attempting to approximate where it would be during that time frame (which actually is a broad time frame in BTClandia, but I was just attempting to work with what you gave me to my best guestimation).  of course if you pick a specific date, such as 2.5years - rather than a range, then that would create its own dynamics... So I don't really have a problem with selecting a range of dates and kind of ballparking a fair approximation of the price for that period.  By the way, if we tried to assess what the BTC price would be in 2017, the range would end up being quite broad, so we might even disagree about what the BTC price ended up being, unless we pick a specific date - but for the purpose of making ball park estimates, I find no problem using a range as long as we know what we are talking about (which is probabilities iof trends in a broader sense rather than getting caught in the weeds of whether we were "technically correct"). 



Financialization of bitcoin is going to continue to be an evolving thing rather than "all of a sudden" thing, so even though I agree with you that BTC is in early stages of financialization, we cannot realistically act as if it is not currently happening behind the scenes (and sometimes in front of the scenes).  Think about 4 years ago, and the level of financialization then as compared with now, even if you might be disappointed that financialization of bitcoin has not evolved further, it has evolved quite a bit and perhaps beyond the wildest expectations of a lot of 2014 folks.



Hey, you are not going to get disagreement from me regarding either the bullish potential of bitcoin or the fact that we are not even close to BTC mass adoption (likely way less than 1% of the world's population has any kind of stake in bitcoin or really knows what it is for that matter).  I am largely criticizing you for your seeming failure/refusal to assign seemingly realistic probabilities to BTC downside scenarios (which could include ongoing downward price manipulation beyond reason or expectations), and I think that downside has to be considered and assigned some probability in the thinking of anyone who really is attempting to honestly prepare himself (or herself) for a variety of possible scenarios - even if ultimately the bullish scenarios continue to have great ongoing likelihood of playing out.


Even though I don't disagree with your whole assessment about BTC bullish scenarios and even asserting that your viewpoint is conservative, I don't think that it is fair to get caught up in "pattern thinking" and presume that bitcoin has to follow some kind of pattern. 

In the end, whatever pattern evolves is going to show itself as it is evolving, but we, as individuals, are caught up in the pattern, and we should not be assuming with 100% that a pattern is going to happen - and likely assigning anything above 60% is also dangerous... even though if the pattern ends up happening, the pattern does become 100%, but that is an unhealthy way of thinking (both psychologically and financially imprudent) to be assigning high probabilities to events that have not yet happened - even when your being into bitcoin already seems to show that you are advantaged of knowing information that the mass public (99%-ish) seem to either not understand or continue NOT to act upon to accumulate BTC.   

I am sure that you recognize that "stop hunting" can happen at any time, and it is part of the parameters of "playing around with margin." 

If you are going to use margin, you gotta be prepared for any manipulation that is quite hard to gauge, especially if you are not either the one doing the manipulating or have some kind of insider information about it.

Surely, it is better to fail to earn as much (such as 10%) like you mentioned, rather than getting caught with a losing position which is also part of the balancing of positions test that you seem to be considering when you first place your shorts and your seeming current reluctance to enter a short at this time.

Lambo is not just a car, it is a lifestyle choice, and the purchase or aspirations regarding such can say quite a bit about a person.

I have posted my own views in the past about such topic, so I don't mind sharing some of my current thinking, either if anyone is interested - but I do frequently get accused of "oversharing" so sometimes I will attempt to self-regulate (believe it or not?)... hahahahaha

It does seem that frequently there are quite a few of us who may agree on the overall parameters, but then we also might get into some pretty BIG QUIBBLES regarding particulars... and especially we may get caught up on more loud arguing during higher periods of volatility when it can be quite difficult to get bearings on both what is going on and how any of us might think about what is going on while we are caught up in it.

Regarding your point about "significant probabilities of loss in the next few years,"  I largely agree with you that upside potential for bitcoin would likely remain significantly intact, even if from here on we suffer tremendously for two to three years.  It may be worse for getting back UP if either $2k or $1k support is broken for any significant period of time - which surely, I place the odds pretty low (at least at this time) for those kinds of levels of support to be broken (even though certainly not impossible). 

By the way, I am surprised that you largely agree with my numbers.... I would have thought that if you independently put your own numbers into those same slots, you are going to come out a bit different and even higher percentages for the possible downside?  Yes  or  no?  or does my guestimation range completely capture your current thinking on the topic?

Hahahahahaha

I did not miss that subsequent post from you in which you denied owning a Lambo.  I made my above post, then I saw your Lambo denial - but that subsequent denial did not change my assessment of the situation (accordingly, I felt no need to amend or edit my earlier post)... 

By the way, since you seem interested in this topic about when or whether Micpeep is going to buy a Lambo, do you have a response to my earlier assessment that Lambo territory for you would be in the supra $75k BTC territory - that is if you are at all in the mood for Lambos?  What do you think?  Was I in the ball park? 

The right question is NOT about whether $20k is possible, but instead regarding how likely it is.  When you say that you think that it is not possible, you seem to be overstating the issue, and more accurately you should be saying that you believe that $20k is "not likely."  Of course it is possible, just a matter of how likely 1%?  5%?  20%?  Many would conclude that it is less than 50%, including me.  Perhaps if I am being optimistic, I would place getting BTC to $20k by the end of this year in about the 33.3% arena, but I recognize that might be a bit much, but it is far from 0%, which would be a "not possible" assessment.

That's what happens with some of these folks who are hoping so much for a bitcoin crash, yet they are unable to understand the difference between bitcoin and crypto overall.  They think (or at least purport to think, to the extent that they are being genuine in their shill/troll attempts) that crypto is all one BIG amalgamated mess, and bitcoin is just one of the bunch.  It is certainly a misinformation framework that is created by these shill/trolls, who might even act as if they are pro-bitcoin since that seems to get them more reception/attention for their non-sensical and ill-substantiated points.

Actually, if you have been dollar cost averaging into bitcoin since some time before you registered your BTC talk account, you have had a relatively "modest amount" that you could use to buy into bitcoin without gambling too much, you did not accumulate BTC or largely establish your BTC stake yet or even in the sub $1k territory, and you made various mistakes along the way, which is merely human, I can understand how it is possible that you have established a decent stake in bitcoin relative to the vast majority of folks who have not established any kind of bitcoin position, but you still feel that you are far from any kind of point that you could rely on BTC to maintain a passive income (based on your lifestyle expectations). 

Any investment can take a long fucking time to establish, and if you have a possible cushion of 15 years (even though perhaps you prefer a shorter amount of time, such as 5 years) you are likely still going to be much better off than any kind of average or traditional investment(s), given the likely places where bitcoin is going to go.

Many traditional investment will allow you to earn a decent return, between 4%  and 12% per year, with a large number of folks returning on the low end of that range.  Bitcoin is likely to perform much better.  I had accumulated a decent amount of wealth before bitcoin from my investments; however, I believe that my average annual return was still only about 5.5%, even though I felt that I did pretty well, overall.   



Well having a cashflow that covers all of your expenses for the next few years remains important in deciding how much you can afford to invest (assuming that you might be inclined to max out some of the bitcoin on the front end based on your optimism of it while continuing to have your living expenses covered for decent periods of time out into the future with an income stream that is quasi-reliable).  We already should realize that living within your means remains important and such practices seem prudent in bitcoin too, even though it is also possible to leverage (but to me, leveraging – such as getting loans to invest in bitcoin, seems too greedy and unnecessary with the likely level of BTC returns)


Actually, several of us seem to recognize a certain level of profundity in the bitcoin world in terms of the resolutions that were shown both in early 2017 with the beginning of the breaking past the previous ATH, and then in mid-to-late 2017 when the hardfork attacks (and other governance attacks) seemed to had fallen on their face - with even worse attempts at trying to hold the forks and attacks together with various failed spam and FUD spreading attacks that did not even stop segwit from going into place and lightning network going into a live testing mode (rather than staying on testnet for a longer period of time).


The financialization of bitcoin has been increasing and increasing and increasing and sometimes even on the lowdown with some institutions likely attempting to acquire bitcoin because of fundamental aspects of bitcoin – and such behind the scenes accumulation seem to be very much in the background and seem to be building in bitcoin's favor, even if there remain attempts to spread FUD or even the froth in the alt coin space having some negative dragging affect on bitcoin’s price and confusion about which crypto is the place in which money is flowing - while many of us who understand bitcoin can see past some of the snake oilsmanship that is taking place and the flaws of some of these diversion projects - icos built on ethereum, and even diversions of stable coins that are ultimately flow into bitcoin, since bitcoin is the only crypto that is really sound money in terms of not printing money out of the air, like almost every other project with its own coin devolves into.


Exactly correct to prepare for the dips and sideways and even prepare for long periods with possible extreme movements that seem to be keeping BTC price below fundamentals...   which is not wanted but within the realm of possibilities that BTC price manipulators are going to manipulate the price and sentiments downwards as low and as long as they are capable of doing.


I appreciate your outlining of scenarios that you believe to be probable and most probable, but really it seems to me that you are not really accounting for the vast array of BTC price scenarios – even if you are attempting to stay in the middle of the road – and you are not putting your scenarios into a kind of probability range – which certainly each of us are going to frame these probabilities a bit differently.  Furthermore, it seems that even your optimistic scenario ends up with John McAfee eating his dick on TV.

I am going to attempt to elaborate on your scenarios by adding more scenarios and assigning probabilities to them.  By the way, I do agree with any premise that BTC’s performance in 6-7 years will partly depend upon how it performs in the next 2-3 years.

BTC’s price will be:  First column in 2-3 years    Second column in 6-7 years

Below $1k =             Less than 3%      Less than 1.5%

$1k to $3k =              8% to 12%              7% to 9%

$3k to $5k =             10% to 15%      8% to 12%

$5k to $10k =              10% to 15%      8% to 12%

$10k to $19k =              15% to 18%      12% to 15%

$19k to $30k =             15% to 18%      15% to 18%

$30k to $50k =             15% to 18%      15% to 18%

$50k to $100k =             12% to 15%      15% to 18%

$100k to $500k =              5% to 10%      10% to 15%

$500k to $1mill =              2% to 4%      10% to 15%

More than $1mill =             Less than 1%      Less than 5%


I’m kind of pulling the above estimates out of my ass (straight); however, my point still remains that each set of circumstances has probabilities, even though in the end, we are going to arrive at ONLY one spot once we get there.  Nonetheless, from our current perspective, we cannot rule out extremely bearish or extremely bullish scenarios, even though the probabilities seem to be on a kind of upwardly skewed bell curve.

Oh?   Seems that I misread regarding which one is currently sporting a lambo.

So, if it is Micpeep with the Lambo, I wouldn't have thought that micpeep would be in Lambo territory until about $75k plus.. .perhaps?     I am not saying that he could not afford one now, but I am assuming a kind of multi-millionaire status before a Lambo becomes part of an arguably reasonable fabric rather than a show-off piece that stretches the budget because the "owner" can barely afford it.

Maybe I missed some evidentiary posts in that direction?

Interesting proposition, yefi.

Of course, if the price of BTC doubles every 4 years, then the value of the reward of BTC, in dollars' terms, is the same; however, the reward still becomes a smaller and smaller inflation percentage - even with some presumptions (and actual evidence) of lost coins (presuming the meaning of "lost" in this context as forever lost).


I did not steal your word, "interesting," bitserve.  My word choice was merely a coincidence.  I swear.