Bitcoin Forum
May 20, 2019, 11:52:47 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 0.18.0 [Torrent] (New!)
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Poll
Question: What year will we achieve a new ATH?
2019 - 24 (31.2%)
2020 - 30 (39%)
2021 - 18 (23.4%)
2022 - 3 (3.9%)
2023 - 0 (0%)
Never - 2 (2.6%)
Total Voters: 77

Pages: « 1 ... 21334 21335 21336 21337 21338 21339 21340 21341 21342 21343 21344 21345 21346 21347 21348 21349 21350 21351 21352 21353 21354 21355 21356 21357 21358 21359 21360 21361 21362 21363 21364 21365 21366 21367 21368 21369 21370 21371 21372 21373 21374 21375 21376 21377 21378 21379 21380 21381 21382 21383 [21384] 21385 21386 21387 21388 21389 21390 21391 21392 21393 21394 21395 21396 21397 21398 21399 21400 21401 21402 21403 21404 21405 21406 21407 21408 21409 21410 21411 21412 21413 21414 21415 21416 21417 21418 21419 21420 21421 21422 21423 21424 21425 21426 21427 21428 21429 21430 21431 21432 21433 21434 ... 23904 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21170033 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (23 posts by 12 users deleted.)
yefi
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2044
Merit: 1149



View Profile
October 15, 2018, 11:23:43 PM

This part is nonsense. They didn't "have to buy 1M bitcoins" because to do market manipulation you only need enough to create movements in the right direction. Ever noticed how Bitstamp always follows and never leads ? (At least I've never seen Bitstamp lead a bullrun, it constantly has to be "dragged out of bed" by Bitfinex).

Manipulators use momentum ignition, but you need the demand there in the first place for it to work. You can't simply prop up a market that doesn't want to move in that direction because you'll quickly find yourself buying up significant chunks of the supply e.g. Bitmain and BCH.

Given that we have this record of 1M being falsely bought, and they have bought less, I consider the importance of Tether to be overblown and calling it entirely responsible for the rise to be fearmongering.
Get signals when whales enter & exit a market 74% average win rate
full binance integration
TRY NOW!
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1558396367
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1558396367

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1558396367
Reply with quote  #2

1558396367
Report to moderator
1558396367
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1558396367

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1558396367
Reply with quote  #2

1558396367
Report to moderator
Last of the V8s
Legendary
*
Online Online

Activity: 1134
Merit: 2121


Be a bank.


View Profile
October 15, 2018, 11:24:10 PM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1)

jjg-
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1890
Merit: 1748


How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


View Profile
October 15, 2018, 11:36:28 PM

I appreciate your outlining of scenarios that you believe to be probable and most probable, but really it seems to me that you are not really accounting for the vast array of BTC price scenarios – even if you are attempting to stay in the middle of the road – and you are not putting your scenarios into a kind of probability range – which certainly each of us are going to frame these probabilities a bit differently.  Furthermore, it seems that even your optimistic scenario ends up with John McAfee eating his dick on TV.

I am going to attempt to elaborate on your scenarios by adding more scenarios and assigning probabilities to them.  By the way, I do agree with any premise that BTC’s performance in 6-7 years will partly depend upon how it performs in the next 2-3 years.

BTC’s price will be:  First column in 2-3 years    Second column in 6-7 years

Below $1k =             Less than 3%      Less than 1.5%
$1k to $3k =              8% to 12%              7% to 9%
$3k to $5k =             10% to 15%      8% to 12%
$5k to $10k =              10% to 15%      8% to 12%
$10k to $19k =              15% to 18%      12% to 15%
$19k to $30k =             15% to 18%      15% to 18%
$30k to $50k =             15% to 18%      15% to 18%
$50k to $100k =             12% to 15%      15% to 18%
$100k to $500k =              5% to 10%      10% to 15%
$500k to $1mill =              2% to 4%      10% to 15%
More than $1mill =             Less than 1%      Less than 5%

I’m kind of pulling the above estimates out of my ass (straight); however, my point still remains that each set of circumstances has probabilities, even though in the end, we are going to arrive at ONLY one spot once we get there.  Nonetheless, from our current perspective, we cannot rule out extremely bearish or extremely bullish scenarios, even though the probabilities seem to be on a kind of upwardly skewed bell curve.

In other words you believe the price will stay below 3K with probability 15% and below 5K with 30% probability for the next 3 years? I wouldn't give that much - 1-2% tops. The most important question is when the effect of mass adoption (including Wall Street companies) is about to happen? I don't think we are near that event. Not even close. So the price will continue to follow its previous pattern. For the last 4 years we had 100 fold increase between the lowest point and the ATH in 2017. It is logical that the same increase will happen in a similar time frame unless the mass adoption is near completition. But let's say that it goes much slower, say 1/4 of the speed of the previous pattern. In other words 6K->600k/4=150k is achievable price within 4 years. But let's say it is not highly probable. Then again, I think that 40K is absolutely normal price in the next 4 years.

I think he did not put much effort in exact %. He even said so.  But what bothers me most in such predictions. And also in predictions from both of you. About what price are you talking about. About the ATH, of the bottom or of the average? 2018 price could be $15000 or $6000 so far. That is quite a difference.

I mentioned this in my response to ivomm, which was that I was attempting to work with ivomm's framework, which was a range of dates that approximate the next two halvenings.  Sure, we could be a bit more precise in our prediction attempts if we pick a specific date rather than a range of dates, but that kind of a practice also might be getting too caught up about the price on a particular date (and being correct) rather than to merely ballpark the concept which is more likely what we do in our brains in real life anyhow when we are approximating the probabilities of events that might happen in the future.  Sometimes, we might attempt to be precise, but likely a lot of times, we ballpark our views and predictions and just go on with our lives with certain frameworks in our heads (that we have to adjust with the passage of time and the learning of new information). 

In my thinking, it does not matter so much about whether we end up being correct, but merely what we believe now, how we prepare based on our thoughts and the extent to which we tweak along the way while information and presumptions are likely to change along the way.
Hueristic
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1988
Merit: 1182


Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it


View Profile
October 15, 2018, 11:41:49 PM

10 pages today, I guess the price went up? Cheesy

200$


Damn, that all? I see we had a tether ripple. LOL




Quote
Please note that in order to both deposit and withdraw USD (in fiat or USDT denomination), a user will need to be fully KYC-verified.

Kind of Ironically amusing that the user must be KYC yet The Tether is not. Smiley


or tether knew they were solvent. spread the fud themselves. bought your bitcoins for cheap. dumped on you at the top.




4. There are some well researched articles showing that the Bitfinex/USD Tether operation has essentially been responsible for the ENTIRE price rise in bitcoin right from $180 to where we are today

Yeah right. Even if you believe that Willy Bot was ENTIRELY responsible for the $1160 bubble, it had to buy 1M bitcoins. How many bitcoins has Tether bought even if you believe that not a single cent backs it? Yet it is responsible for an even greater relative increase? I'm no fan of Tether, but that sounds like "well-researched", class-A bullshit.

Yup, that is a completely retarded statement.

Bitfinex and their USDT should be shaking in their boots with Fidelity, Bakkt etc coming on board.  The tiddlywinks days of shady exchanges and monopoly money are coming to and end.

Yes but... wouldn't be surprised if in 5-6 years people are cryin' about how Bakkt has become "shady as fuck" too.

Wall Street invented shady.

You got that right!
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1890
Merit: 1748


How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


View Profile
October 15, 2018, 11:45:10 PM
Last edit: October 16, 2018, 12:05:53 AM by JayJuanGee

12288$$$$

12/10/2018 IntroVert Sad
15/10/2018 explorer
18/10/2018 Searing
26/10/2018 kurious
09/11/2018 fabiorem
15/11/2018 bitserve
20/11/2018 Globb0
22/11/2018 Last of the V8s
01/12/2018 Alexander_Z
07/03/2019 CoinCube
15/04/2019 Spaceman_Spiff_Original
20/06/2019 bitebits
13/12/2019 nikauforest
10/04/2020 yefi
05/09/2020 samson    
23/06/2021 fortune143              


and another falls off ........................ only 15 left on this one


Yep, I'm toaster city here soon! (Ack!). At least have the BTC price PUMP some, before I get dumped off the list. The price of BTC is so 'embarrassing' from

my dreams, when I made this bet! (alas, gone along with my supermodel trophy wife goal at 100k BTC...alas) Sad

Gosh!!!!!  I don't think that "supermodel trophy wifes" come (even one of them) merely based on having a lot of money...

Let's say BTC prices shoot up from current prices to $1million per BTC within the next year, and let's say that you both had 100 BTC and you were able to hang onto all of them during the price rise and you cashed out at $1million  - easy peasy...!!!!  Viola!!!!  $100 million available -
 minus taxes, of course, but that would be 15% capital gains - leaving $85 million.    

I suppose that should be enough to keep any high maintenance girl happy, right?


my dreams, when I made this bet! (alas, gone along with my supermodel trophy wife goal at 100k BTC...alas) Sad

at 100K, 'trophy wife' coefficient is probably 1K btc, no less.
Alas, I might have been overestimating associated expenses.

You fool, you can't get a 'high quality' ...'trophy wife' for less than 100k a BTC! (Just wait, in a few years I'll prove it to ya!) Smiley

What you gonna call the proof?  Proof of work, proof of steak, proof of trophy acquisition or something else?
toknormal
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1946
Merit: 1157


View Profile
October 16, 2018, 12:36:14 AM


I consider the importance of Tether to be overblown and calling it entirely responsible for the rise to be fearmongering.

Hey, you can never have enough fearmongering when it comes to bitcoin  Cheesy

There's always a pumper at hand to come and extinguish the concern !
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1890
Merit: 1748


How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


View Profile
October 16, 2018, 12:36:37 AM
Merited by Rosewater Foundation (1)

I’m pretty relaxed about entry.

*Having nailed the sentiment of the world, Rosewater hands Hairy the sacred hammer*

get yer moon boots on lads

they are always on JUST IN CASE, never now when shit's gonna take off



There ain't no such thing as a free hat. This will end doomily. Wait for it.

Again, your tendency to find a doom scenario in good news, correct?





Living off the fat of the land is a niche hustle. Don't forget to ladder your approaches.

*Rosewater throws the ceremonial mallet*

That is called :   Koreck!!!!   Cheesy
Rosewater Foundation
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 392
Merit: 254



View Profile
October 16, 2018, 12:45:43 AM

jjg-

Would you tell Henry Ford to stop assembly line producing anti-semetic personal automobiles?


Of course not.
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1890
Merit: 1748


How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


View Profile
October 16, 2018, 01:05:36 AM



THOSE SHORT EXPERTS  Roll Eyes  Grin   watch out hairy   Tongue

He was not liquidated (if you are talking about Tone Vays). On bitmex (where he is doing this trade) highest was $6777. His liquidation happens at around $7650.

So far, we don't really talk about Tone Vays in this thread, but I am sure that a large number of WO thread posters generally understand the position of Tone Vays to be inclined towards believing that a correction is necessary before BTC prices can resume upwards.

Tone Vays also proclaims NOT to trade on his own trading advice because he asserts that he does not have enough time to do so, which seems a bit of an overstatement (especially when he spends a considerable amount of time giving advice about methodologies for trading BTC and uses current charts in order to predict short-term price directions). 
BotanicKilt
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 140
Merit: 11


View Profile
October 16, 2018, 01:12:07 AM

Shortist leaving the party

infofront
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1652
Merit: 1674


Shitcoin Minimalist


View Profile
October 16, 2018, 01:29:54 AM

Volume is still looking nice.
yefi
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2044
Merit: 1149



View Profile
October 16, 2018, 01:35:06 AM

Even the stock hardware is full of secrets and holes, watch this video.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrksBdWcZgQ&t=403s

Have you seen his video attacking System Management Mode using the APIC? Genius. It's also unsettling how vast and disconnected the x86 processor has become. It feels like a decaying city in there.
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1890
Merit: 1748


How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


View Profile
October 16, 2018, 01:45:17 AM



It is even worse than it appears when you seem more context and a few more angles.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRUBj2PTtL8
Rosewater Foundation
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 392
Merit: 254



View Profile
October 16, 2018, 02:06:09 AM

Volume is still looking nice.

People seem confused and disorientated. Like they just got hit on the head with a hammer, while wearing a hat, before eating it. Roll Eyes
oldbit
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 203
Merit: 10


View Profile
October 16, 2018, 02:12:47 AM

Volume is still looking nice.

People seem confused and disorientated. Like they just got hit on the head with a hammer, while wearing a hat, before eating it. Roll Eyes

Something is wrong with the mayor. seems confused. too much herb?
Rosewater Foundation
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 392
Merit: 254



View Profile
October 16, 2018, 02:15:16 AM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1)

Volume is still looking nice.

People seem confused and disorientated. Like they just got hit on the head with a hammer, while wearing a hat, before eating it. Roll Eyes

Something is wrong with the mayor. seems confused. too much herb?

He's fine. He's right where I left him. Wrapped in plastic.

Now, can we please stay on topic.

I'm trying to think!
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1890
Merit: 1748


How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


View Profile
October 16, 2018, 02:19:23 AM
Merited by Globb0 (2), xhomerx10 (1), xyzzy099 (1), vroom (1)

jjg-

Get out of my way, V8!!!!!!




kirreev070
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 406
Merit: 271



View Profile
October 16, 2018, 02:32:23 AM

Hueristic
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1988
Merit: 1182


Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it


View Profile
October 16, 2018, 02:49:06 AM
Merited by Globb0 (2)

Even the stock hardware is full of secrets and holes, watch this video.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrksBdWcZgQ&t=403s

One of the best presentations I've ever watched.
I love his methodology.


Have you seen his video attacking System Management Mode using the APIC? Genius. It's also unsettling how vast and disconnected the x86 processor has become. It feels like a decaying city in there.

I haven't watched that one, I'll try to set some time aside.

xhomerx10
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2016
Merit: 2124


Godspeed Elwar and Nadia.


View Profile
October 16, 2018, 03:46:31 AM
Merited by xyzzy099 (1), HairyMaclairy (1)

Volume is still looking nice.

People seem confused and disorientated. Like they just got hit on the head with a hammer, while wearing a hat, before eating it. Roll Eyes

Something is wrong with the mayor. seems confused. too much herb?

He's fine. He's right where I left him. Wrapped in plastic.

Now, can we please stay on topic.

I'm trying to think!

 Here's a thinking cap.


Pages: « 1 ... 21334 21335 21336 21337 21338 21339 21340 21341 21342 21343 21344 21345 21346 21347 21348 21349 21350 21351 21352 21353 21354 21355 21356 21357 21358 21359 21360 21361 21362 21363 21364 21365 21366 21367 21368 21369 21370 21371 21372 21373 21374 21375 21376 21377 21378 21379 21380 21381 21382 21383 [21384] 21385 21386 21387 21388 21389 21390 21391 21392 21393 21394 21395 21396 21397 21398 21399 21400 21401 21402 21403 21404 21405 21406 21407 21408 21409 21410 21411 21412 21413 21414 21415 21416 21417 21418 21419 21420 21421 21422 21423 21424 21425 21426 21427 21428 21429 21430 21431 21432 21433 21434 ... 23904 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!