Haha guys, this can't be true, I know your position (most of you) just from a few of your last posts... so simple to speak own book.
No, I'm afraid you don't. Hard as it might be for you to believe, not every post in here is meant to "speak your book", some of the commentary (at least my own) can be contrary to my position. Describing a contrarian case as a "trial balloon", seeing if I can get some interesting feedback on it that might ultimately might lead me to *adjust* my position. |
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As usual, insightful and original post from you. Might be called "permabear" again, but who cares, you made it clear that's not your "most likely scenarion" but an interesting observation.
My remarks:
Based on resistances, supports and common market patterns, I see a real chance we'll re-test 570-580 (1w BB), even 530 (1st fib level of entire bear market downtrend). Anything below that, and we will run into what I believe to be strong buying support starting from around 500.
I can somehow see how, once we approach a bearish territory like 500, momentum/panic will carry us further, despite that buying support, but your scenario isn't one of a quick flash crash to below 500, below 400 even, but a slow erosion to that level.
What I'm saying is: I see some room to go down, but for the fractal to play we would need to see an erosion of buying support we saw in late April/early May, and I don't see any signs for that. If anything, I expect buying support moved up on level, and instead of supporting 400 to 500, it now supports 500 to 600 (which still allows for dips into the lower end of that range).
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Still no real explanation for Stamps lagging behind ? With the amount of USD longs on Finex I would have thought some people would have panicked and bought them back into line...
Rather than this suggesting Stamp's insolvency/Goxxery, it suggests that Stamp has temporarily become the go-to exchange for cashing out coins. People are buying/trading elsewhere and selling/withdrawing on Stamp. Curious. That suggests somewhere else is experiencing fiat withdrawal issues. Another round of Chinese games to come? I don't think it says anything about their solvency, insolvency would normally cause people to get their coins out asap which would have the opposite effect. The explanation that its the go to cash out place could hold but why all of a sudden ? Somethings definitely brewing, would have thought someone would be arbing the gap as its been pretty constant. Lack of people's memory can be astounding sometimes... Bitstamp has been the "cashing out" exchange since time immemorial. It has also been "the bearish exchange" since, forever. "Bearstamp" is not a term coined recently. You're right: it's interesting to wonder what causes the renewed selling pressure/"cashing out" event currently (maybe insider knowledge from Chinese traders? I don't expect it, but it's possible). But in either case, the price gap in the current form is not a problem at all: if you want to liquidate coins in volume and get your money out fast and reliably (and you don't mind a bit of KYC anal probing  ), then Bitstamp has been the exchange to do so since more than a year now. |
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what a strange discussion... As already mentioned, declaring the MACD green before a weekly candle close carries the obvious risk that upon candle close it *won't* in fact turn green. And apart from that, how about the following 3 (different) instances of a bullish MACD c.o. that saw a price decline afterwards anyway.... case #1 last year, september/october. bullish c.o., sharp crash... yeah yeah, "Silk road". Still, the market was ready for a huge drop, so don't declare shit outliers just because they don't fit your theory:  case #2 late 2012. 1st *closed* green MACD candle and: in between price decline  case #3 my favorite. 2011/2012 bear market. weekly macd turns green, but by the time that happens, because it's such a lagging indicator, price was already near a local peak. afterwards? another 5 months of mild decline/stagnation, before the next rally.  What conclusions to draw? Well, I'm not saying to ignore weekly MACD. Just don't turn it into something that it isn't: a magic signal that infallibly preempts huge price increases. If anything, in the recent past it preempted minor drops and periods of stagnation. Once that is accepted, I will add that it also then led to further rallies in the mid term, which is all you holders want anyway, so why discuss trading signals in the first place  |
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A classic. The answer has been given more than once in here:
1) Merchant adoption, or at least: some form of adoption that lends legitimacy is necessary for Bitcoin price to reach the lofty heights we like to dream of.
2) In the short to mid term however, merchant adoption could depress price because of increased selling pressure from merchants liquidating coins that they received from previously "hodling" early adopters.
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Why is all this bitfinex swap stuff relevant? I thought the whole theory behind the current rally was that it was neither bitstamp nor huobi that was leading the rally but that it was due to offline whales accumulate huge blocks and due to commercial usage, because there is clearly not enough volume on exchanges to be supporting the rally.
It probably isn't the major cause behind the rally. But it is a significant factor. $24 million in swaps is 37,000 bitcoins (or possibly more if the cost basis for the long positions is below the market price which it probably is). And in the past, the number of USD swaps has grown faster than the Bitcoin price (eg. 2013) which means that it may continue to be a source of demand. By contrast, the Bitcoin Investment Trust with their 105k bitcoins looks like they've really slowed down their purchases (of course that could change). Offline whales might be accumulating large blocks, but we don't have data on that. If we did - I'd be very happy to see it! BTC used to do 100-200K per day of volume on mtgox. The tiny volume of 10-20K per day on bitstamp during rally is pathetic and nothing in comparison to previous volume levels. Even huobi (whatever portion is real), stamp, and btce combined are nothing compared to previous combined volume levels. A $10M increase in swaps is nothing compared to an $8Bn market cap. Obvious some other force is moving the market. If I was using Stamp's volume in my technical analysis, I would not even be here - I would have abandoned bitcoin. You are aware that the price of BTC is massively higher now than it was last year. USD volume is the only relevant metric. No it is not. When you are trading it is the volume of the base currency that is relevant and not the volume of the quote currency. Rubbish. If the price of a BTC has risen 50x in a year then clearly expecting the same trading volume in BTC is ridiculous. Exactly, compare volume in purchasing power. Base currency volume is the only metric to measure how much of the currency itself has changed hands. What you are saying is that $10,000,000 has the same relevance to move the market when: 1. The market cap is $10,000,000 and 100% of the coins are being purchased 2. The market cap is $100,000,000 and 10% of the coins are being purchased 3. The market cap is $100,000,000,000 and 0.01% of the coins are being purchased 4. The market cap is $10 and it is impossible to even purchase that many coins. This is clearly false. Correct, that's false. But what you said earlier entails that volume in base currency needs to remain constant as price increases. This is clearly false as well, unless you want to argue that the past 3 years of growth are all going to crumble. Base currency volume is slowly falling over time, and that seems to be okay. Which doesn't mean the current volume is enough to support the current growth. I'm pretty sure it is not, and I believe that was your point as well. |
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This is interesting. Are you able to plot the indicator? It would be nice to see how it interacts with price visually.
Yes, absolutely. will do that at the end of the current "swing". |
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Remember what happened last time when the daily SAR said sell?  |
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Expedia is not the announcement.There is another big one coming. If you read what i wrote in the 3-4 messages i wrote on this, you would have seen that it was a BitPay conference call. Expedia is with Coinbase. Expedia is huge. And notice - the price hasn't budged. -------------- I just met with Jeff in person, five minutes ago at the Clevelander Hotel to give him a batch of yBitcoin magazines to put in the lobby of the hotel. The information was given to me in confidence, but I can confirm that its legit. As for "how big" - i can finally give you an intelligent analogy. Expedia announcement is huge. And in light of that announcement, this company may make you scratch your head as to why they're better for Bitcoin. But the key is, they're a big company.
Expedia's value is 8.8 Billion. This company's value is more than 11 Billion.Its just a *completely* different demographic. And I think they have their hands dipped into several commercial interests. Either way - these two companies in one week will likely be Bitcoins biggest "Merchant Adoption Week". -B- I dont see why Expedia is a big deal. So this one is 1.3x the market cap.. ok. Is it Amazon? No. Target? Walmart? Ofc. not. Why would this do anything for Bitcoin?  +1 I know overstock.com adoption was relevant. And I can see (by their turnover) that Dish Network is really big. But Expedia is the first company that I myself knew before the anouncement and had used, and that I've seen ads for in real life. In terms of exposure on the Internet, this one is bigger than the previous two, at least for a certain demographic. That is, if they place a visible "you can now pay with Bitcoin" sign on their checkout webpage. |
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Forgot to ask in the first place, but what's the cost per trade during the backtest? Given even moderate volume, slippage+fees (mainly slippage, though) easily reach 4% per trade pair. Once that is taken into account, I suspect any strategy that just cranks out one trade after another won't be profitable compared to one with less frequent trades. That said, I'd still like to see the follow_sheep results |
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I reckon you won't get a signal, because I reckon any down move is not a reversal but just a little dip. fwiw.
so... SUCCESS!
hehe, that's a nice thought, but not what I'm aiming for. It's intended to be a trading signal for swing traders: if there's a price change of about 5 to 10%, I aim to pick it up, ideally before other indicators like MACD do. If, on the other hand, we don't get to see a price drop into the $585 to $618 range, then: yes, I'd consider not giving a reversal signal intended behavior of the RI. once again, pulling opinions out of my ass (but it keeps this thread near the top, hehe) id say there will be no concerted move into that range, if it does spike down, it will be short lived. No reversal, just a blip in a general uptrend. I'm keeping track of the output so far in a chartable format, so once this swing (or non-swing) is over, I'll post the results charted against price and daily MACD (which is a reasonably close analogue to my RI, from what I can tell so far), and I shall do so with a bump :D |
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Its probably just coincidence that the flatline coincided with the bilderberg meetings, the peak coincided with 500 euro and the exchange rate disparity is low on the euro side. Oh, and there's a small spike on days destroyed. Should be interesting to see how long it will need to flatline for a reversal and what happens when folks realise oil prices are about to make a move  Oh, I'm sure there are reasons behind whatever happens. It's just so much less efficient to speculate about how to weigh them for each relatively minor swing that I'd rather not do so and instead look at the market metrics alone. |
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Mmh, there it is again... that feeling of controlled apprehension.
Enjoyable, even.
As long as we don't go below ~580.
It is going down again, any idea why? Can't wait to go up up up  Momentum. Market cycles. Lingering doubt resulting from previous bear market. Pick your preferred explanification, really doesn't matter... |
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Jup. That's the news.
Sorry Mat for the earlier comment... Guess once in a while, a "source" can be right...
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Also, Expedia Inc., huh?
That is kinda big news (sorry for the snark in the other thread, Mat).
$4B revenue vs. Overstock's ~$1.3B
I like.
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Mmh, there it is again... that feeling of controlled apprehension.
Enjoyable, even.
As long as we don't go below ~580.
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I have a hard time believing that. We agreed somewhere else that the patterns will probably become more difficult to recognize, but it's one of the very few bets I'd actually be willing to make: we will see another bubble cycle that differs from the previous ones only gradually (say, price increase by factor 5 instead of factor 10).
Summer 2012 would like to have a word with you My own gut feeling tells me we're far from a "stable growth phase" yet, which can also be seen in these past few weeks/months of volatility on charts, which so far hasn't strayed from normal BTC behavior. If the anticipated "big investors" (wall street etc) are in fact beginning/going to buy in, I could definitely see bubble rises to at least $10k levels (though maybe not in the upcoming bubble, which imo (again based purely on gut feeling) is more likely to be like the 2012 one). But as you say bett, this pattern can't hold forever. Unless we get a wonderfully drawn-out and bloody bear market somewhere in-between, taking us to fresh lows and giving the rocket some much-needed refuel time. Possibly coinciding with the more general upcoming markets crash luc and others keep going on about. Maybe it's just wishful thinking though. Would be utterly shite for the rollercoaster-ride to end just as I was beginning to enjoy myself  Maybe that was a misunderstanding then: My point was as well that I don't see us entering "stable growth" yet. Not for a few years, possibly. I would however argue that volatility shows some signs of decreasing over time. By two relevant measures, rate of change and bollinger band width, used on a weekly or monthly time scale, the absolute peak is still the 2011 bubble cycle, and at least by bbw, the late 2013 cycle was slightly less volatile than the early 2013 one. Not much to work with, admitted, but I can see the scenario where we have continued exponential run-ups to new ATHs, but each of them is slightly less violent than the previous one.  |
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I reckon you won't get a signal, because I reckon any down move is not a reversal but just a little dip. fwiw.
so... SUCCESS!
hehe, that's a nice thought, but not what I'm aiming for. It's intended to be a trading signal for swing traders: if there's a price change of about 5 to 10%, I aim to pick it up, ideally before other indicators like MACD do. If, on the other hand, we don't get to see a price drop into the $585 to $618 range, then: yes, I'd consider not giving a reversal signal intended behavior of the RI. |
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Hope no one here expects a comment to be taken serious that contains the word "HODL".mine included
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| 10-Jun-14 | 64.34 | 69.16 | 106325 | 10 | 0.01 | |
They're buying 10 coins? My grandmother's buying 10 coins. Sheesh. Whales these days... Okay, seriously though: Thanks a lot for keeping this updated, jl2012. Much appreciated. |
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