I am not sure.  We likely need to create and follow our plan to accumulate BTC based on our own financial circumstances including seeing how many BTC that we have in light of the number we believe that we need to have, and I am not sure how helpful it might be if we are trying to figure out if the BTC price may or may not be overheated in the short term... is that going to change what we do?

Also if we ask AI to search for periods in which there were at least 6 green weekly candles in a row and then to highlight that for us, maybe that might help us to see similar patterns or to be able to identify patterns that we might not have noticed without the use of AI.


If you believe that you are transitioning from accumulation to maintenance mode or maybe even some variation of liquidation mode, I have a sustainable withdrawal thread that I created a couple of weeks ago.


Cannot argue with you here, and surely some people take longer than others to figure out these kinds of balancing matters...and it can become quite tempted to get caught up in various kinds of shitcoins and to figure out that the plan to get into shitcoins is not really a fair kind of an investment... so therefore not really a very good place to keep much if any of your value.


Sometimes too they take too many profits too early and then end up psyching themselves out of making sure that they have a sufficiently decent bitcoin stash.  I can see the urge to take out the amount that you invested.

So for example, let's take your forum registration date and if you spent 7 or more years accumulating bitcoin and maybe you put close to $37k into bitcoin (that would be around $100 per week and having had accumulated 8.4614 BTC), and then maybe you want to get that $35k back, but at the same time, if your 8.4614 BTC are currently worth around 10x the amount.. which would be $370k at current BTC prices, then there could be questions regarding the urgency to take out the amount invested or to just let it continue to ride, even though the value of the BTC holdings continues to fluctuate, there seems to be more and more security in terms of the BTC holding the value the longer that we are in BTC.

And, sure sometimes people make mistakes along the way by trading, getting involved in shitcoins or some other mistakes, so whatever they ended up doing did not end up accumulating as many BTC as they could have had accumulated with a straight-forward DCA strategy.

I like to consider lump summing as a kind of front running of an investment (of course in this case we are referring to BTC), and surely the guy who lump sums in at $50k at some point in 2021 if waging (or insuring himself) in case the BTC price goes up and does not come back down... There is nothing wrong with that, but if he blows his whole wadd in the lump sum, then he has no more to buy if the BTC price moves against him and ends up going down rather than up.

One of the good reasons not to blow your whole wadd, and even if you spend everything that you have at the time of lump summing, if you still know that you have a cashflow coming in, then you might be able to make up for some of how much you ended up putting on the table in the lump sum.   

Maybe an example is in order, and a person who might have had $10k that he could spend right away in late 2021, and maybe the BTC price is around $50k at the time that he is trying to make his decision, and he knows that he has a $100 per week cash flow coming in, so in 2 years, he could have had matched the same amount of investing, so in that sense he has $20k over 2 years, but he ONLY has $10k right at the moment that he is deciding whether or not to DCA... So yeah, if he ends up buying 0.2 BTC at $50k for $10k then he might be better off if he continued to DCA with another $100 per week over the next two years and ends up with a total of 0.6315 BTC (0.2 btc plus 0.4315 BTC) (with $20k spent, an average cost of $31,670 per BTC and current value that is $27,659.. so even with this about 38% in profits) .. or if he would have front-loaded the extra $10k, and bought $20k BTC at $50k which would have had been 0.4 BTC, and perhaps no more wadd to blow.

And, yeah of course nothing wrong with trying to supplement as well with buying on dips, to the extent that you are able to figure anything out with TA/FA as you mentioned... which is also another one of the arguments for DCA that mostly relies on figuring out your own personal cashflow and investing what you can from there rather than gambling on BTC price moves that may or may not end up happening, even if you think you got some things related to TA/FA figured out, which an overwhelming majority of people do not have that kind of stuff even close to figured out, especially when looking at the future as compared with their abilities to look at the past and still not knowing how to frame what had happened in the past in a meaningful and actionable kind of way that is any better than deploying some form of DCA or hybrid DCA.


Of course there are some advantages to automatic DCA in terms of not having to think about it, but there may well be some disadvantages if whatever exchange you are using is batching the orders and even front running them... so I don't personally like automatic DCA... and yes, you don't have to have the automatic component to still be employing DCA and you also don't necessarily need to be consistent either..

For example, if you are assessing your cashflow once a month, then maybe you make weekly assignments of your DCA amounts that relates to how much cashflow that you have each week, and if your cashflow varies a lot then your DCA amounts also end up varying a lot, but it does not become less DCA based on those kinds of inconsistencies of timing and/or inconsistency in amount matters because you are still employing DCA by assessing how much BTC to buy based on your cashflow considerations, and you are not judging how much BTC to buy based on attempts to predict short-term movements in the BTC price.. which would be more in line with buying on dips rather than DCA.. even though to throw in another twist, you could also incorporate buying on dips within your BTC buy windows by attempting to hybridize your DCA buys through trying to catch the dips during the week or whatever might happen to be your DCA window for any particular DCA buy that you choose to carry out.   


Because you are a BIG MEANIE.


Because you look like this:




"They" are getting scared.


You may well be more bearish than me, or maybe we are just expressing ourselves differently. 

I think that our move to $15,479 was a pretty high level of unusual, and so that was about 35% below the then 200-week moving average.. and so the 200-week moving average was maybe slightly below $24k at that time.

Today we have a 200-week moving average that is going up nearly $25 per day, and it is right around $29,161, so 35% below the 200-week moving average is currently just below $20k, and I am even having difficulties imagining going that low, but I think that it does not hurt to have a little bit of insurance to keep some orders at that level of 35% below the 200-week moving average, and so going further below $20k seems like overkill to a situation that is already overkill (having buy orders currently going down to $20k is already overkill).

Yes, and also all the BTC buy orders between $20k and $30k are likely overkill because maybe we never touch the 200-week moving average again, this cycle.. even though we are not too far away from our earlier touching of the 200-w eek moving average in terms of either price or in terms of time... which would have been mid-October when our BTC prices were barely above $27k, and the 200-week moving average was then about around $28,160.

I am not going to say for sure, but I think that for this cycle, it would maybe be less than 20% odds that we see blow the 200-week moving average again.. . even though I am likely going to continue to maintain BTC buy orders that are more or less 35% below the 200-week moving average.. because I can.. and because I might not have had been able to do that when I was in my earlier BTC accumulation stages.. such as 2014-2016.. but now, it is more just an easy something to have just in case and not having to worry about the matter.. even if I am likely leaving cash on the table..

Actually another thing about leaving those kinds of buy orders on the books might be the size of the buy orders, whether they add up to a lot of cash or if they might just be symbolic... so for example if someone has 25 BTC which has a spot price value of more than $1 million, he may well have anywhere between $50k (5%) and $150k (15%) worth of outstanding BTC buy orders..and I am pretty sure that all my buy orders still ONLY constitute right around 2% of the whole value of my BTC holdings... so for me, it is difficult to feel that I have too much cash when it still ONLY adds up to about 2%-ish of the value of my BTC holdings.

When I look at some of my information from around the top of the BTC price in 2017, it seems that I had gotten into the more than 10% cash arena, surely if we end up getting a lot of UP this time around, then maybe there could be some scenarios of my own getting back to the more than 10% cash arenas, but it scares me to have that much cash, even though 2% is also feeling like a lot of cash right now.. so maybe I still have not worked out the balancing of some of my own tensions in regards to how much cash might be good to have and at which points in the cycle, and probably I would have had been in even a worse cash to BTC balancing position if I had not suffered my June 2023 Binance accident..


Are we really going to have the "wonders" in 2024?

There are a lot of people talking really BIG right now... even for 2024.. I think BIG talk is contagious. .and will such BIGGness end up showing in the charts?


There does come a time in which you should be able to do both, and being able to have a foot in both doors is likely a good thing...also keeping our bitcoin in various kinds of different kinds of stashes might be a good thing too.

How much do any of us have on lightning network, and do we have nodes or are we using custodian wallets or self-custodian wallets.. not easy to do... but sometimes, there may be some custodian services involved..   i am still practicing with Phoenix and Breez for my supposed mostly self-custodian lightning solutions, but still not running into a lot of ways to use them in the real world... but still keeping my eyes open.


This is a great example in which the person who bought $10k worth of bitcoin subsequently suffers a 60% or greater crash (loss of value), and if he continues to buy, then he may well bring down his average cost per BTC and end up in a  much better position based on such persistence in his buying... see my examples earlier in this post.

Any BTC accumulation strategy is a shit strategy if you forget to buy.  Maybe you need some kind of a slappening to remind ur lil selfie?  just asking.

DCA had worked pretty well in the last year and a half or so, especially for anyone who might not have had any lump sum to invest or if they were somewhat worried about whether the BTC price would have been going up or down.  Even if we go out as far as two years ago, which would have been starting to invest into bitcoin right around the peak..

If you had invested $100 per week in the last two years, you would have invested around $10,500, and you would have had accumulated around 0.4315 (which would be worth around $19k at today's $44k prices).

Yeah, sure lump summing would have had been better, especially on the extensive dip below $20k.. but there were not too many with confidence to buy bitcoin in those days, and even the bitcoiner's who had confidence in BTC likely had ended up spending a lot of their fiat to buy BTC at prices much higher than $25k... ..

so many of the bitcoiners who believed in bitcoin in the last couple of years might have even ended up relegated to some variation of DCA.. and yeah at the same time, you have to likely continue to do it, rather than getting skittish upon the 2022 dip below $25k and the fact that we spent a lot of time below $25k and even spent more than 18 months below $35k... so DCA could have ended up working out pretty well for those guys who consistently bought BTC in the last two years and maybe even more so if they were able to be more aggressive during periods that the BTC price was below the 200-week moving average.. which was quite a bit of that time... even right before this latest bounce we were right around 10% below the 200-week moving average when we pretty much bounced from $27k to our current $44k price in right around 6 weeks... gotta love the punishment of so many of the nocoiners, low coiners, fence sitters, shitcoin pumpeners, bears, bitcoin shorters and bitcoin naysayers.

Oh gosh that was quite a rambling post (what else is new?).

I had to go back to remember what it was that I wrote.

I am glad that you were able to get something out of it.   

People do seem to be top oriented, but bottoms seem to be more important for valuing and evaluating your investment.... at least if someone is a long term HODLer and even still mostly considering himself as a BTC accumulator.

I suppose when people do not ladder sell at various increments, then they get kind of obsessed about when to sell and how much to sell.. and sure if you don't want to sell in $1k increments (or my current $1,500 increments, then maybe you can opt for $8k or $12k increments.. or yeah, surely nothing wrong with round numbers when talking about increments, as long as you are not placing your actual sell orders at round numbers.

Even if you don't use increments, you are likely still not going to get much closer to the top by trying to guess the top.

Yeah some people believe that they have tops figured out, and they are really hard to know, so maybe that is another reason why bottoms are better because even though bottoms are also not really knowable, they seem to be quite a bit more knowable than bottoms, so maybe that is a reason why I seem to like bottoms much more than tops.


One of the great things about using ranges, it is nearly inevitable that you are going to be correct.. or at least "kind of correct."


Even a 30% correction does not quite bring us below $31k... and surely, I am not even saying any kind of "meaningful" correction is necessary.. but I could surely imagine 20% or more at some point.. and right now that would be right around $35k.. but if we wait until we get to $55k (that would be "up before down"), then a 20% only brings us back to our current price. so maybe go up to $55k and then get up to a 36% correction .. that would be a correction back down to $35k.

I am not even saying that any of that would be necessary, but one of the tendency with some of the BIGGER corrections is to really take advantage of momentum, when momentum is starting to go in your favor to really push it.. but hey, who can really say.. ... even though BIG corrections make more sense now, and not going back below the 200-week moving average which is currently at $29,161 (and moving up around $25 per day).

I think that the guys who were calling for those kinds of big corrections that were to take us 10% or more below the 200-week moving average were just way  too hopeful, even though we did get quite a bit of time that was more than 10% below the 200-week moving average, and maybe those times are completely gone.  Maybe? perhaps?


That is also the shitcoin USDC.. which is even worse than USD T.. not that I am against Tether in any kind of substantive or meaningful way.


Doesn't hurt to have a few "down before up" proclamations weaved into the mix.

#justsaying.

I just hate getting too wedded to any narrow kinds of expectations including explanations that too much narrow in on single explanations - even though surely there are some events that affect BTC price performance on the margins, but we cannot relive history so we are locked into what happened versus what would have happened if all other factors were to remain the same and one of the factors were changed, such as china did not kick out miners in 2021 or what if the BTC spot ETFs are approved by early 2024 or what if they are not.  

The past is a bit easier to ascribe explanations for what has already happened (in the even that we can agree about what happened or how to frame it), versus coming up with a variety of scenarios for a future that has not yet played out - even though we can attempt to figure out where we are at based on from where we came, which might help us to figure out scenarios that are more likely than others... but even if we pick a base case and we calculate a variety of scenarios, maybe even the scenario that is the most likely to happen, cannot even muster up solid odds of more than 40%...but out of all of the various scenarios the 40% one has the highest odds of any of them.. but even if it has the highest odds, it does not mean that the scenario with the highest odds is going to end up playing out, otherwise wouldn't those folks who bet on the highest odds be richie...  

Anyhow, maybe I am devolving into too much abstraction?.. and maybe 2024 might be the more bullish of the years.. if comparing 2024 and 2025?  and maybe we end up getting a double top with one in 2024 and then the second one in 2026... does not really matter very much to me, but until we see otherwise (in other words at this particular point in the cycle), I am still sticking mostly with the idea that the top of the tippity top for this cycle is likely going to be in 2025, but surely we could have facts in 2024 that end up playing out that cause some needs to reassess beliefs about what may or may not end up happening in 2025 and/or beliefs about what may or may not end up happening in 2026.


Even though a lot of Binance BTC left the exchange, there is no evidence that they were forcefully exited out of their long positions, as is the case with FTX.

Binance is not even close to the level of fuckery and criminality of the FTX fraudsters, including but not limited to that dweeb SBF.

And, don't get me going on bullshit, hyped, false and misleading comparisons of SBF and CZ.  CZ is largely getting manipulated with both an excessively overreaching USA Government and also disingenuine moving of various goal posts.


I would consider it relevant to this here thread if it had something to do with dee cornz.

I would never consider that HODLing shitcoins would be a good thing or a goal, which seems to be a message contained within that there meme.


Cited for image.


Fuck crypto.


I was kind of wondering about some variation of that question.

You know that I mostly considered the $15,479 bottom to be in around the time of our going up past $30k the second time in this rebound.. which would have been in June.. around the time that I "suffered" my Binance error...

so then my recent considerations had to do more with whether $30k might ever get breached again, and surely it would be dangerous to remove all buy orders below $30k, even though most likely it should be safe to remove most if not all of them below $20k.

Call me names if you like.. but I am no Saylor, and I don't mind having gobble-dee-goos of cash.. even though it is just sitting there not really doing much of anything.. and yeah, after my first few years in bitcoin, I remained somewhat nervous about holding so much cash, but gosh there were so many times in which I ended up getting nervous because I was running out of cash.. and I am not even sure if I need to list all of the times and the various kinds of remedies that I had to try to figure out so that I would not feel that I was running out of cash... and each cycle has been getting better and better and better to have extra cash that is just available.. but how many of us mostly BTC HODLers were sitting on sufficient cash after the BTC prices went below $25k in June 2022?  The ONLY folks who I recall bragging about how much cash they had were the no coiners and low coiners, and gotta take those guys with a decently large grain of salt, for sure.

So, yeah we don't really need cash in times like this.. so I don't know what to say, further - except that it does seem that I have more BTC this time around than I had in 2021 when we were going up (both the first time in early 2021 and the second time in late 2021 - which I think that the second time I had more BTC than the first time, and sure I would have to check my details more specifically).. so that having more BTC phenomena is a kind of progress that is within the system of being mostly a HODLer. .even a HODLer who doesn't really have anything against spending BTC, even though I would say that I really was not trying to get more BTC since early 2021 (because even in 2021, I felt that I had more than enough BTC) because it is kind of a side-effect to end up having more BTC.. in spite certain kinds of spendenngs along the way...

What do you think about bottoms?  Do you believe that we are going up from here, and no more bottoms?  By the way, we heard a lot of "down before up" since October, and those calls have not played out very well, so far.  Sooner or later one of those "down before up" calls will end up playing out correctly, if anyone still dares to proclaim such a thing, again.  

This statement is not true:  "Time is running out for accumulating,"

Sure, many BTC accumulators (especially the more newbie of the accumulators) are likely faced with dilemmas when the BTC price is rising so quickly, yet they likely need to resolve their dilemma in terms of figuring out their own situation, including but not limited to how many BTC that they have already accumulated. 

So likely if someone is brand new to bitcoin accumulation, they are stuck in a kind of suckie situation in which the BTC price is going up, which likely causes many of us to recognize how fortunate that we had been between May 2022 and October 2023 to be able to accumulate BTC while the BTC price was going down and also while the BTC price was caught up in extended periods of ambiguity in regards to whether it was going to go up  or to go down.  So we had a lot of opportutnities to max out our BTC accumulation during those times, even though we may well were feeling bad about not knowing if the BTC price is going to go down further or not.

Now we that we can see that the BTC price has largely recovered from those earlier depressed times, we can feel good about ourselves and our earlier conviction.

Sure, we could still have dips that bring us back down into the lower $30ks, and at the same time, we cannot be completely assured that sub-$30k BTC prices will never be seen again, but there are also possibilities that some of the lower $30k prices and sub $30k prices will never be seen again, so lucky for anyone who both knew about bitcoin during those times and also who acted upon such knowledge about bitcoin to prepare as much as s/he could for UP, without overdoing it... and yeah, maybe some of us wish that we would have over-done it, but it is fruitless to be having those kinds of regretful feelings, because each of us should realize that we can ONLY be as aggressive in our bitcoin accumulation as we are able to be... and there is value in not being overly aggressive, even though at this time we might feel regrets about not over doing it.

If we are new to bitcoin, we just have to figure out our BTC accumulation strategy from where we are at right now, and we cannot be second guessing in terms of wishing that the BTC price will go back down.. because it might go back down and it might not.  Therefore, sometimes we have to spend several years .. maybe even more than 4 years accumulating bitcoin before we start to get our BTC portfolio in sufficient profits and also of a significant size, because we cannot necessarily change our cashflow situation in a short time-frame, we have to deal with our circumstances as they are and perhaps continue to attempt to make various improvements to be able to improve our discretionary income in order that we have more money available to buy more bitcoin with that extra money and without necessarily causing ourselves to overly suffer during the earliest of years in accumulating BTC.


Sure a lot of people are drawn to shitcoins, but so what?  They may feel that they need to go through such growing pains, and surely they might believe that there are chances to outperform bitcoin, but sometimes they have to go through those stages in order to appreciate bitcoin, yet at the same time, I would not be dissuaded from calling them dummies while they are doing it.. in the event that we know such people. 

So we can still suggest to them to stay away from shitcoins and not to be distracted, and surely there might be some of them that mostly stick with bitcoin and end up ONLY fucking around with shitcoins with smaller portions of their investment portfolio...   but who knows?  we cannot really judge in advance, even if we can see that there is an alluring and distracting pattern to get attracted into shitcoins.... but we ourselves can attempt to set a model by staying focused on bitcoin, and even sometimes we are going to look foolish, or too conservative, or out dated.. and so time will show.. and there are no guarantees that some shitcoins might have various extended periods of outperforming bitcoin.


Yeah.. but so what.. fuck shitcoins and fuck your assertion that there is any kind of need to diversify, even if you personally engage in such practices.  You can talk about (and pump) those kinds of practices in some other thread rather than devolving into off-topicness here.


This statement is not completely true: "mostly adopted by low-income earners" even though practically there are advantages of DCA for people to manage their cashflow as it comes in, whether that ends up resulting in weekly, bi-weekly, monthly or some other interval of BTC buys.  I personally recommend more frequently such as once a week, even though there can be ways in which it makes sense to buy somewhat erratically based on how cashflow comes in, so for example, if your cashflow is already projected for the next 6 months then you may well have expectations of certain amounts of cash coming in and certain amounts of expenses coming due and even perhaps a certain leeway of cushion in regards to how much cashflow and expenses might end up varying from the projections.. so that when it becomes clearly determinable that you have some extra cash that is available, then at that time, you may well decide to buy bitcoin with it right away, or perhaps have a kind of formula in which you buy half right away, and maybe once a week or twice week you compare your cashflow/expenses projections to your actual cashflow/expenses and you make a BTC purchase based on the extent to which there is a difference between the projection and the actual.  That is not just a strategy for poor people, but it is a strategy that anyone can employ, even non-sophisticated people and more advanced investors could end up employing sufficiently long term strategies of DCA accumulation because they believe that easing into a position works more to their advantage rather than lump summing (or maybe if they might sell out of one position to get into another, in some circumstances, DCA might make more sense than employing such a lump summing kind of an approach).


This part makes sense... but it applies to poor, rich, unsophisticated or sophisticated.  Sometimes people try to talk down DCA because they believe that they are more sophisticated and advanced and blah blah blah. they know what they are doing, and surely sometimes it might make sense not to DCA, and it might make sense to lump sum into an investment, but even if there might be choices to lump sum, there also can be choices to supplement such lump summing with DCA and/or buying on dips.

Right now, and at this moment in which the BTC price went up from the lower $27ks to the mid $40ks in less than 2 months, which is more than a 60% price appreciation during that time, some newbies to bitcoin might feel kind of overly whimpy because they might have had decided to get into bitcoin with a pure DCA approach in August, September or even early October, and then all of a sudden they realize that they would have had been way better off if they had lump sum invested into BTC and perhaps supplemented with DCA.. rather than starting out with DCA and then having a lot of extra cash that was sitting on the sidelines that did not end up getting deployed at the lower prices. 

Sure, there is not a lot that any of us can do about seemingly major BTC price moves that eng up seeming to come out the blue, except to always attempt to be prepared for either BTC price direction, but not to forget to make sure that we are prepared for UP, especially if we are new to bitcoin and we hardly have any BTC at the time that we start... once we are in for a while.. one year, two years, three years, four years or longer, we likely start to feel that we have had a long enough time to accumulate BTC, even if we might have had ended up making various mistakes along the way and sometimes feeling that our average cost per BTC is a bit higher than it should have had been.. but sometimes the average cost per BTC does not make as much difference as making sure that we are sufficiently aggressive in our stacking in our earlier years of stacking BTC.. that is if we are capable of accomplishing such.. and surely there are some categories of people (such as students and persons in their earlier years of their career) who may well not be very capable of being aggressive in their BTC stacking strategies in their earlier years of BTC exposure.


Some of them are engaged in gambling and not really realizing it.  Many people make mistakes from the angle of believing that they are employing investment strategies, but they have not sufficiently figured out their own finances and psychology to a high enough level in order to really be investing, so they end up devolving into gambling strategies without realizing it.. and sure, no problem, sometimes we can still end up getting it right or learning from the mistakes of our earlier strategies that we mistakenly thought were investing rather than gambling...

In other words, sometimes the mistakes are not so severe as to totally wipe someone out of a position, but instead merely cause them to  miss some opportunties or maybe have to suffer through eating Ramen for several months because they fucked up their finances and they have to get back to a position in which they are able to return to living normally rather than having to endure extended periods of suffering.  Sometimes the mistaken gamblers can recover after a few weeks or even a few months, and others might have to take years to recover from their mistakes.. maybe never really completely recovering but at least able to get back to a position in which they are able to live above their earlier standard of living expectations.


There are matters of degree to any of these matters in terms of what might be sufficiently aggressive versus what might end up being excessive, so it might not even be clear about whether any of us might have crossed over the line until maybe the BTC price moves against us or even moves against us for such an extended period of time that our earlier mistake in which we though that we were merely being aggressive shows itself as having actually have had been excessive.. so we cannot always know in advance, even though the more experience that we have, the more likely that we are going to both be able to prepare for extreme scenarios in which the BTC price moves against us but even to be prepared for scenarios in which it might move even further than the extreme scenarios that we had considered to have had been not very likely to happen.


I personally believe that it is better to prepare for ranges of scenarios.. so for example, there might be a kind of base case expectation, and then on each side of that there are better and best case scenarios on the one side and bad and worse case scenarios on the other side, so surely we hope that our base case scenario plays out but maybe we prepare ourselves as if the bad case scenario might have higher chances of playing out than it actually does, so if the base case, better and/or best case scenarios end up playing out, we are still prepared for them, but we are not financially and psychologically invested in such a way that the better and/or best case scenarios have to play out in order for us to survive, and maybe even in the bad scenarios we are still profiting and maybe even  in the worst case scenarios, we are limiting the amount that we would lose, so we are still prepared for all scenarios, even though we have the various scenarios floating in our projections about what might be the likelihood for each of the scenarios to play out while at the same time are we financially and psychologically prepared for any of the scenarios to end up playing out. 

These kinds of multiple scenario preparations are possible, even though many times people have difficulties figuring out how to prepare themselves for a multitude of scenarios and directions at the same time.. but it is possible to accomplish such... which is also part of the amazingness of BTC's historical performance that has good chances of continuing. even though not guaranteed, and part of our ability to prepare for a variety of directions is based on position size and NOT overly leveraging (and perhaps not leveraging at all.. leveraging is not necessary, even though it can be a more advanced tool that might be used if cashflows and resources are sufficiently buttressed to be able to employ such leverage without excessive risk).



Knowledge of bitcoin is ONLY one part of the formula... See my outline of 9 factors to consider.. you see that knowledge (or view) of bitcoin as compared with other possible assets is only one of the 9 matters to consider.


It is true that people do ultimately need to come to their own conclusions in regard to what to do and how to do it, and they may well end up having so many hours that they have to engage in their regular work, and maybe they have some family obligations, and they also might have some needs for recreation and fun, so when it comes down to spending many hours on figuring out their own personal financial matters as how it relates to bitcoin, they might still be spending 4-10 hours per week on bitcoin, and they are still feeling like they cannot really keep up, so they end up mostly blindly figuring out a good enough approach that involves choosing their DCA amount.. maybe it is $100 per week or maybe it ends up being some other amount or even having some fluctuation within it, and surely they might also realize that either once a month, once a quarter, twice a year or maybe once a year, they have to spend more time reviewing their strategy and figuring out the extent to which they might be able to tweak it in one direction or another, but they might still feel that they are in a position in which they are limited in how much more planning that they are able to do in regards to how much they are already doing just to keep up with the basics of following the news and perhaps making some monthly tweaks to their finances while keeping the rest of their life in a sufficient level of order..


The more that we are able to spend time planning and assessing, then maybe we are then able to act way more aggressive, perhaps spending $200 per week on BTC rather than $100, but if we have a lot of other obligations and we are not quite sure about how aggressive that we are able to be, then it might be much better to invest only $100 per week or even $50 or $10 per week rather than to end up over doing it because we did not have enough time to really get into some of the details of reviewing our financials and our psychology.. in such a way that we could afford to push limits.


hahahahaha

You are right.

I had not even noticed that so far we have 8 weekly green candles in a row, and yeah, I recall spending quite a bit of time talking about how many weekly green candles that we had in a row during various historical periods.  Surely you can go back and make those kinds of comparisons, and you will likely see that there are certain limits to how many weekly green candles tend to come in a row.. there will frequently be some correction (or red weekly candles) in the middle of some of the longer streaks of green candles, and even sometimes there will be a long streak of green candle, and then one or two weeks of red candles and then a resumption of many green candles in a row.  I am not sure how much we can determine from this, except sometimes we do end up getting nervous about whether the green weekly candles can continue and/or if they are sustainable...and I am not claiming to know the answer, even though surely it sometimes can be a good dynamic to watch. and to count them.


You might also may want to look at from April 2019 until June 2019.. there might have had been a few red candles in there, but we did have 3 months of price rises to 3.5x  from right around $4,200 on April 1 until the $13,880 at the end of June.  It might not have had been the longest streak, but it is a fairly modern times good example of a kind of price rise that ended up playing out while at the same time being somewhat unexpected and recking a lot of shorts, bitcoin naysayers, shitcoin coin pumpeners, and fence sitters.


We need to be careful when extrapolating this kind of information... because it becomes problematic to just shoot past the previous ATH... especially if we are starting at a base that is less than 1/2 of the current ATH.

Sure it is not impossible, but I would not get too worked up in terms of expecting low chance events to play out.. even though it does not hurt  to be prepared, just in case, as long as you are not putting too many eggs in that basket.


I doubt it.  Bitcoin gives less than two shits about seasonality, but surely we have money printer dynamics that are going on  since early 2020 and not really stopping, we have some ETF approvals that seems to be looming (and quite likely), we have the upcoming halvening, and we have some history of overly correcting in terms of the levels of scams and likely suppression of the BTC price in mid-to-late 2022, with surely some recovery from that even in 2023, even though the BTC price was still likely somewhat suppressed throughout most of 2023 (since it spent a lot of time below the 200-week moving average), even though people were talking about bitcoin as if it were a mature asset, and surely it is not.. surely bitcoin has a kind of price dynamics that includes stock to flow and 4-year fractal, but likely more importantly, exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and network effects (as outlined by Trace Mayer).  So it seems a bit ridiculous to be treating BTC as if it were a mature asset class, when it is not... and so too bad for the so many people that remain no coiners or low coiners, and they could surely advantage from owning some bitcoin in times like this, even though an overwhelming majority of the world's population had little to no exposure to BTC prices.. in terms of direct or indirect ownership.. only in terms of macro-dynamics which is less likely to advantage them on a personal financial level..even though they likely get benefits from the actual existence and the power of bitcoin.. just not personally in a financial/psychological way of owning some of it...


2023 turned out to be quite bullish.. so yes, it seems that frequently even the more bullish years in bitcoin end up being riddled with simultaneous drama to try to talk people out of their investment in bitcoin, and too bad for the folks who get diverted away from bitcoin by 1) failing to take a BTC position, 2) taking a whimpy bitocin position or even 3) selling some or all of bitcoin that they previously held.


That is one of the dilemmas of bitcoin, since even if we are taking positions that we believe to be reasonable, our personal lives are going to be affected by diverting our funds into bitcoin rather than being able to spend them - even if we are merely taking $10 per week to buy bitcoin, and in your case Justbillywitt, if you are really investing between 30% to 50% of your cashflow into bitcoin, you surely are going to be negatively affected in a variety of ways in terms of sacrificing consumption for today for the possibility that you are going to end up in a better financial and/or psychological position in the future based on your financial (and perhaps consumption) sacrifices earlier in your investing into bitcoin.


Of course nara1892 is suggesting that there are possibilities that you Justbillywitt might be going beyond what would be reasonably aggressive or sufficiently aggressive, yet surely that is for you to make those kinds of determinations for yourself because we might not be able to determine the extent to which you might have had gone overboard and/or if you have determined your emergency fund to be enough when it ends up not being enough under certain circumstances that could end up playing out.  Frequently what happens with emergency funds, especially if they are really adequate, they end up never being needed or used because part of the definitions of a robust emergency fund would be that it would take some hell-of-a-crazy ass circumstances before it would end up getting seriously depleted, so for example you may well continue to be able to buy BTC at $100 per week, even while you  are going through an emergency because your reserves are so great and you have your various scenarios within your expectations of things that could happen. 

I have known members who had thought that they had gone into  fuck you status, so in other words they thought they they were retiring early, but if they do not know how to valuate their BTC holdings, then if the BTC price ends up correcting 70% pr 85% and they are not able to stay in fuck you status, then surely they have not valuated their BTC holdings with the right standards... and they have not really prepared for situations that were not that unlikely from happening, even though their preparations might have prepared for severe downfalls in the price, but maybe they only prepared for a 50% drop in price and not a 70% to 85% drop in price. Similar kinds of lackings of preparation can take with an emergency fund that is not sufficiently robust, but its weakness is not really appreciated until under some severe stresses, and some stresses are more predictable than others, but once in a life time events probably should not be happening very frequently, unless sure maybe you end up in a life-ending kind of accident that ends up completely robbing you from your income and causing great expenses and maybe that would be the kind of incident that would cause you to have to cash out your BTC because your emergency fund was not expected to cover that kind of a situation.


You are correct Justbillywitt.  You are the one who has to measure the extent to which you are merely aggressive or if you might have devolved into excessiveness.  Your mere assertion of investing 30% to 50% of your income into bitcoin might appear excessive on its face, but if you otherwise have your shit together, it is not necessarily excessive, even though it may well be aggressive under many kind of scenarios, but yeah, we have already determined that there is nothing wrong with managed aggressiveness..even managed over-aggressiveness...

but don't come crying to us, when you lose all your bitcoin in the event that your managed aggressiveness or your managed over-aggressiveness ended up being excessive.   

 


It is much better to end up surviving 10 years down the road with 1 or 2 bitcoin rather than trying to get 4-5 bitcoin but then ending up having 0 BTC (or maybe less than 0.25 BTC) because you spent too much time taking too many chances that ended up coming back to bite you in the ass.  Living to fight another day is important.. including securing your coins rather than keeping them on exchanges, even though I don't have a problem keeping some coins on exchanges for beginners and even more experienced bitcoiners who might have 5% to 20% of their bitcoin on exchanges from time to time.. but generally we probably should not be keeping very much of our BTC on exchanges, perhaps less than 10% is a good rule of thumb, but if we are brand new to bitcoin, maybe we have all of our BTC on exchanges until it gets to a certain value. .whether that is $1k or maybe even $5k.. and also depends on other wealth that you might have, if BTC is your only investment into anything, then you might be putting yourself at more peril to hold very much of it on exchanges rather than figuring out some secure ways to self-custody it... which can also run into peril if you end up putting your self-custody coins on some scammy device or something that you don't really know how it works or you don't properly safeguard and protect your private keys.


I think that I know what you are saying here, but ultimately we should realize that our beliefs are manifested through our ongoing actions, which could be ongoingly buying BTC, but surely sometimes we might get nervous about ongoingly buying BTC, so then we still are faced with a dilemma in which we have to assess how long we have been stacking sats and how many sats have we accumulated.  Accordingly.  do we keep buying or do we pause or do we make any other adjustments, and so in that regard, we have to have some ways in which we anchor our beliefs into where we are at and where we would like to go and questioning the extent to which we know if the BTC price might go up or down, but we still may well be in a place in which we either continue buying $100 per week or maybe we end up splitting $100 per week into two parts, buying $50 per week and using the other $50 per week for buying on dips.. or maybe we realize that we might get worried about whether we might regret any kind of a reduction of our DCA.. even if some of our current DCAs are getting us way less (nearly 60% less) than the amount of BTC that we were getting or the same dollar value a mere 2 - 6 months ago. . but we might not have many more options, and maybe we don't even feel like working harder or more hours or reducing any of our expenses anymore than we already had done, so we just have to deal with the cashflow that we have.


That could justify continuing to buy without really worrying about the recent BTC price increase.


Who knows? 

Many of us consider that the bull run is likely coming in late 2024 and into 2025 - but surely there can be no real way of knowing, and just perhaps not get too worked up about various scenarios that could throw off the pattern in one direction or another, but there could still be a plan to accumulate 0.5 to 1 BTC in 5 years, but then if the BTC prices are going up so rapidly, there could be some concerns about if those kinds of goals can be reachable, so then the goal could just end up getting adapted in terms of the amount of dollars invested and not really having strong ideas regarding how many BTC might be accumulated in the next 5 years.


I personally get the sense that FOMO is more likely in circumstances in which people were overly whimpy in their BTC accumulation, so if someone was attempting to be aggressive, then s/he will realize that s/he did as much as s/he could under the circumstances...


I have a hard time imagining that there wouldn't be some kind of a correction prior to reaching $55k, but who knows. WE cannot really know with any kind of certainty.  We can merely attempt to prepare ourself for a variety of scenarios, whether they end up playing out or not.

How about you?  what are you doing to prepare yourself?  You have been registered on the forum for quite a while (since early 2016), so surely you have personally had quite a few opportunities to prepare yourself in the last nearly 8 years being registered on the forum, so right around 2 full cycles.  We could go over your DCA numbers, but maybe that is up to you to figure out if you want to say anything regarding if your own personal approach has at least come close to matching a DCA approach over 8 years.


Personally, I prefer referring to either bitcoin or to satoshis, and I find several of those intermediary units to be confusing, ambiguous and likely not even necessary.


Surely, $250k per bitcoin is not guaranteed in this cycle, but it seems quite within the realm of reasonable reach for this cycle, and if anyone is somewhat new to bitcoin, then I am not sure if BTC going to $250k in this cycle would make much difference if they are ongoingly accumulating BTC, yet surely many of us realize that it is better to be able to buy more BTC for cheaper prices, but sometimes we don't really have much choices in terms of our current cashflow and we might not be in a position to change our cashflow very much in the short-term (to either increase income or decrease expenses)... sure some of us can, yet some of us might not be in such a position to be able to meaningfully and significantly change our cashflow in the relatively short to medium term.

Remember there is an expression:  "on the internet, no one knows whether you are a cat."

Therefore, some new contest categories could be introduced based on various animals... perhaps rotate using the 12 animals from the Chinese zodiac, and perhaps drawing an animal randomly from a virtual bag would be the another way to mix up the years with various different animals...  



I doubt that making the amounts larger makes the contest more fun.

In other words, I frequently like to propose bets with other forum members to take the counter when I suggest that they are taking an outrageous position, and part of the reason for the bet is not to win a lot of money or even to cause them to lose a lot of money but instead to show that they don't even believe in the position that they happen to be taking.  It is not always easy to work out terms, even if a bet is going to be small, but I purposefully enjoy having small bets.. as long as the bet it large enough to cover the transaction fees... maybe in the future needing to send bets on lightning network, even though you guys likely can get away with on chain fees if you batch the sending out of bets, so then the bet amounts could still end up being relatively small... maybe the equivalent of at least $25..


Part of the greatness is to leave some reasonable doubt, and mix it up from time to time, even though in the real world that might not be a very good way of interacting with people, but on the internet there could be some value in mixing up some of the things, especially some of the less important things, like sex, gender and/or animal status.


Well said.

What is your point to show a tweet from July 2022 - without highlighting that it was a tweet from July 2022?

Yeah, the tweet ended up being wrong - even the opposite played out.. but at the same time, your posting that subject without context is misleading.

Since when did we have our bull run in and even year.. such as 2024?.. and gosh don't we need to save some blow-off top for some part of 2025?  I know some members have even suggested that the 2025 bull run needs to come earlier in the year.. and not sure about that, just like I don't buy the idea that the 2021 top was April rather than what my lying eyes told me that it was November.

I am not going to claim to know exactly when these waves might play out. .and surely the past seems to be much easier to predict than the future (even though we sometimes don't even agree about those kinds of things), and I am not even much of a stickler for the precision of the 4-year fractal.. like some of us in these here parts.. even though the four-year fractal has been playing out fairly tightly.. so far... .. but how long can that last, really? 

I doubt that I am personally affected very much whether we get our top in 2024, 2025, or 2026.... I mean a matter of whether in some variations that I might end up shaving off 8%, or 10% or 12%..... or maybe you never know I might go crazy and shave off a bit higher, but even I have difficulties imagining anything close to 20%.. that seem just crazy.. Probably not going to happen.. .  And in the end, what I do might not really end up being that big of a difference. .no matter which way it ends up playing out.. . even though surely it would be better to get some actual notice in advance.. which that never seems to happen, either... not actual and constructive notice rather than then just wannabe sorcerer notice, which surely is not very reliable in the whole scheme of things.

I doubt that the actual truth matters, and your comment makes me want to vote more for him to win Miss BitcoinTalk (not trying to lobby for anyone.. but just stating my ideas out loud).

Of course, we have a lot of latitude in how we choose to invest into BTC, and I think that would be my main concern with anyone who is going to approach BTC in what seems to be a more aggressive than typical way is to make sure that they have a pretty solid emergency fund.. .. So in other words, the more aggressive that we are, the more important is that our emergency fund is solid.


He just needs to edit his posts and to remove one of the open quotes ...  this part [quote.] ... , and then his quoting should come out correctly.

Think cyber attack, or aliens or some other such nonsense... I am not sure if they could get away with Pandemic 2.. .but you never know, there may be some variation of pandemic in the mix, too.

Yes.. you gotta get BIGGER with your expectations.. especially since you have been expecting this since $31k-ish.

Must not be a good position to be in.. to have had failed/refused to buy when we were in the $24k to $27k zone for around 2 months... between mid August to mid-October... .. was not even that long ago.. and sure it could happen.. but a retesting is not always the most painful way... and that is why the most painful way can sometimes hurt even more when you had failed/refused to sufficiently/adequately stack cornz.


The use of such word depends upon context... so stop being such a hater upon the attempts to communicate meaning, even as flawed and imprecise some of us might be from time to time.


It is not impossible, but it doesn't seem too likely that we would stay below $39k for the next 2-3 months... but never say never.


Selling at the top assumes a couple of matters.  1) being able to identify the top, and 2) being in the BTC accumulation game for long enough (or to have had stacked enough) that it actually makes sense to sell rather than to just keep accumulating.


I don't mind sharing either, but a true rare beast that would end up engaging in some kind of a relatively aggressive investment strategy into BTC after such purported orange pilling.. and it seems that we (you and I, Gachapin) had this conversation previously.

I don't disagree with anything that you are saying Justbillywitt, but in your last couple of sentences, you are fighting with the hypothetical.

If we say that you have decided to spend 50% of your income in bitcoin, and you agree that your income is $200, then that would be $100.  So yeah, it is up to you if that is manageable or not based on your situation, and hopefully you have an emergency fund too.

If you add $40 to your income, then your income went to $240.  It did not stay at $200, so if you are still investing $100 into bitcoin then that would no longer be 50%, it would be 41.67%.  If you want to continue with 50%, then you would have to invest $120.. based on that exact example.. if you add a side income, then you have added to your income, and lowered your percentage into bitcoin, unless you also put 50% of that into bitcoin, and sure a lot of different variations are possible, but you should at least present your hypothetical properly and not claim to be investing 50% of your income into bitcoin when the facts that you describe show that amount to be 41.67% when we account for all of the actual income.


The more pure idea of lump sum has nothing to do with whether the BTC price is high or low, and part of the idea is that if you receive some kind of extra money or cashflow (or after you go through your finances, you realize that you have an extra $1,200 that you did not previously realize that you had available for bitcoin)... So right at that time, you decide what you are going to do with the extra money that you suddenly have.   

So you could do what Justbillywitt decided to do:

1)  $600 (50%) into buying right away (that is lump sum).  Lump is based on the price right now.. .. right at the time that we know that we have the money in our bank account or whereever it is that we know that we have it... and we do not know if the price might happen to be high or if the price might happen to be low.. we are going to decide are we buying now or not... .. if so then we are lump summing and if not we are putting it into a different category... which might might be buying on dip or DCA.

2) $360 - 30% into DCA.   Thus, choose your time period.. maybe over a few months or maybe over a few weeks.. or maybe even over 6 months, even though over 6 months would end up being a pretty small amount per week ($360/26 = $13.85 per week), but if it is merely adding to a DCA that you already have, then it might be a practical option to just add that additional amount on for the next 26 weeks.

3) $240 - 20% for buying on dips.  Again, if you already have a buying on dip system in place, you could just add the $240 at various points.  Let's say that you already have a system in place that starts from $37k, and buys $60 of BTC every time the BTC price drops $1k, and so maybe you decide that you are going to add the $240 into 6 parts onto existing buy amounts, or maybe you decide that you want to add 4 additional buy on dips at the bottom of the amount that you have already have set and if your buy orders only go down to $30, you decide to add 4 more buy orders of $60 each from $26k to $29k.  Yes.  I understand that right now buying on dips seems a bit crazy... but these may well be some of the trade offs that go to show that buying on dips is not always a good idea for beginners still establishing their stash, but it might work better for someone who already has a larger BTC stash level, relative to his goals.


The mere fact that the BTC price went up in recent times does not hardly prove anything, except that the BTC price went up, so any BTC that you bought prior to it going up is in profits.

Big wooptie doo.

If you lump sum buy at $26k and then you sell at $42k, then you would have made 60% on your investment, and it would show you that "trading works."   

Still a BIG SO WHAT.

If we are talking about long term investing in this thread, sure no problem appreciating some of the short term signs that we are on the right track, but still does not resolve a variety of dilemmas that guys likely still have when the BTC price jumps around so violently, then they are faced with dilemmas about whether to buy BTC right away.. DCA'ing and/or whether to wait for dips... and especially newbies have dilemmas over these kinds of matters, and get tempted to sell so that they can buy back cheaper.. which frequently causes more stress than what it is worth..

Actually, I find the ones who had been investing with a DCA style for the last 2-3 years to be much more convincing, and they might even be saying that they had been building their BTC holdings for the last 2-3 years and finally getting into profits. .and that is much more convincing than the mere fact that any of us might have bought coins low in any particular dip (or prior to a recent rise in BTC prices).


Surely any of the folks (whether governments, institutions or individuals) would be starting to show quite a few payoffs for any consistent buying of BTC, even if they might have front loaded some of their investment at higher BTC prices... so the persistence will be part of the ways of getting payoffs... but since our dip was so severe, especially between about June 2022 until about January 2023, there were likely quite a few folks who were having trouble in terms of both having money and to have enough confidence to continue to buy BTC during those times.. .. but surely almost any amount of ongoing buying of BTC would have had contributed towards putting that government, institution and/or entity into a good position....

Of course, Microstrategies has been the most transparent in this direction, even though their average cost per BTC is still quite high.. around $30k, but seemingly quite solid in terms of overall financial position.    Bukele has been a bit more obscure about the investments and also the last time that they were showing averages was in the $40ks.. but if he/the country had been buying 1 BTC per day of the last year, that would have brought down their average costs a bit.. but still no real reporting on the matter.. especially as compared with MSTR.

You should know better than that.

I am sorry that I did not mention market cap, so we are not talking about meaningless concepts that relate to unit price.. that makes hardly any fucking sense.

Let's take for example that at various points in 2021 bitcoin had more than a $1 trillion market cap, which would be right around the $55k price point, and at that time, gold had about a $10trillion market cap, so at that point, we could have had made the assertion that bitcoin was about 1/10th the price of gold (in terms of market cap).

Right now the numbers have shifted a bit, and gold has a market cap of nearly $14 trillion, and bitcoin's market cap is nearly $800 Billion.. so just to get back to 1/10th of gold's market cap, then bitcoin would need to get to right around $72k - which would be around a $1.4 trillion market cap for bitcoin... and yeah, gold's price and/or market cap is likely to change too.. but surely $72k for bitcoin is back in the middle of noman's land, so I would not expect bitcoin's price to be hanging around in any of those prices between $55k and $85k for very much time.. but yeah, you never know.

And another question would be whether bitcoin's spot price could cause it to catch up and/or surpass gold's market cap in this cycle, which surely is possible, but not a given.. .and of course, they continue to be moving targets, too.

I would imagine that it could take 50-150 years for bitcoin to get into the 100x to 1,000x of Gold's market cap and sure it could happen more quickly if Gold loses more of its market cap rather than currently going up in its market cap.. but still invest in gold at your peril.... I know some folks love shitcoins, and surely there could be some reasons to invest in gold historically, but I doubt it is even going to come close to being able to meaningfully hold much of its value relative to bitcoin, even though it probably has good chances of holding its value relative to the dollar.. at least in the coming 5-10 years.. but who knows.. gold is a bit manipulated with its own paper dilutions and also its problems in terms of the burdens of its physicality.

It is funny, and even a bit ironic how selective someone like Peter Schiff is when it comes to his assessment of bitcoin as compared with Gold and as compared with the dollar, and sure, technically, Peter is correct that BTC still needs to go up right around 60% more from here just to get back to its ATH prices.

Nonetheless, there's no way that he should be considering gold to be a better investment than bitcoin, and there are so many ways that any of could measure bitcoin's performance compared with gold's performance in order to both show bitcoin as superior to gold but also superior in terms of moneyness. 

Ok.  likely we can admit that there are a lot of people who don't really know what bitcoin is, even though Peter really should know by now what bitcoin is, yet there is still likely going to persist a certain amount of variance in regards to how many hours should it take for anyone to become knowledgable enough to recognize and appreciate that bitcoin is better than gold, and maybe we can have sympathies because even people who have been in bitcoin for a very long time, realize that bitcoin is better than gold, but it took them a whole fucking lot of time to figure that out, but there are probably not too many people who actually realize that bitcoin is somewhere between 100x to 10,000x better than gold.. I am actually in the 1,000x camp, but I had heard that there is some recent Fidelity assessment that bitcoin is 10,000x better than gold.. but I don't have a reference link for that because I cannot remember where I saw it.. .. but that is a new and emerging view that is taking the assessment further than 1,000x better into the 10,000x realm.

I see


I see



I see




Not sleeping this time.

Ok.  My mind should be more open to the smarter kinds of dumb.

 

Call me closed minded.

I am not going to go there.


Edit:


Thar she blows.

That is kind of a dumb example OOM.

Do you happen to know what bitcoin is?

The whole invention of bitcoin is about proof of work, and so there would be no bitcoin without proof of work.

Proof of work was the invention that makes bitcoin, so if anyone says, let's undo the invention, then bitcoin becomes a BIG SO FUCKING WHAT.  It is nothing without proof of work... that is be how bitcoin works.. proof of work... there is no changing that part of bitcoin - so it is not going to happen.

Maybe you have been reading too many ethereum threads to even believe that it is possible to take away bitcoin's proof of work and to act as if there were still such a thing to be called bitcoin?   Bring out the batman gloves and prepare your mug for a slappening.