There is also a possibility that those 80% expecting further BTC price drops are going to get fucked out of their "cheap coins."

There were folks waiting in 2015 for cheap coins, and did not appreciate $200s as being cheap enough for them.

Yes... You would serve as a very credible authority to measure what exactly constitutes "unhinged."  

Maybe some of the answers to my questions are obvious, but I am not sure what you are saying.  

What kind of odds are you giving to your downwards dip scenario (maybe down to $5,400)?  Greater than 70%?  Your down scenario is not as bearish as other peeps?  Why wouldn't the price go below $5k, once it breaks below $5,700?  We have already seen close to $5,700 a few times since early February, no?

Did you buy some BTC in the $6,800 range recently, because the BTC price has been quite a bit below $6,800, recently, too.  

Has your buying been at various price points along the way?  Did you buy more above $6,800?  Have you sold some, too?  

Was the reason for your buying BTC in the $6,800 range because at the time of your purchase, you were not sure if the price was going to go down further?  And, was the reason that you did not buy below $6,800 because your lower buying target prices have not been met yet?

I ask because we all know that we have have had several BTC buying opportunities in the past more than six months of below $6k (starting from the beginning of February).

The problem is that you just cannot get everyone to do it, even if they seem to agree....  They deviate, so in the end, the free market wins out, and little by little folks cash out (or lock profits) etc. etc. etc. and they also get both scared and greedy... which also results in cashing out.

Heavily played card, and well deserved.  You are likely going to be added to the bcash/big blocker shill list, and then it will become open season on you too... .Maybe you can redeem yourself by providing some fact/logic based substance, but I doubt it... you are already showing signs of either improper frame work or you are being paid to spread nonsubstantiated nonsense.

You make a whole hell of a lot of sense.



NOT


I am afraid to ask (because you are likely to just spout a bunch of nonsensical misinformation), but do you have any evidence for your assertion?  facts and logic?

In my humble bumble opinion, this whole flaunting who is "on ignore" and who is "NOT on ignore" is just a bunch of attention whoring evangelism that would be better kept in the closet.... but sure, if guys and gal want to flaunt their personal preferences and engage in petty propositions about personalities, they are largely free to do that.. and I am free to label them as an attention whoring wimp.

I don't ignore anyone, but there are certainly posters who cause me to skim and not read, even though every once in a while I might read more closely to see if the person has said anything that is interesting to me at that moment.


I merited your post Gyrsur for providing the below link that was highlighted as "interesting" by yefi, and I agree that the site is interesting.

I did not say anything near your synopsis... dumb troll-bot fuck.

Well, Searing, it depends upon which part of 2014 you are referring.

If you are talking about the middle of 2014, well there were a few times, that a large number of BTC HODLers believed that the bottom was "in" and then the bottom continued to fall out, and by the end of 2014, we had pretty much reached the bottom..... even though we did not know whether we had reached the bottom - nonetheless the first about 10 months of 2015 was just largely bouncing back and forth within about an $80 range between about $215 and $290.. .with a couple of times breaking outside of that range.  

So, yeah, if our current bottom is not "in" then we could have a few more erratic periods that are attempting to test out the bottom and for bearwhales to verify if they can shake anymore peeps of their BTC holdings.

So, first of all, there may need to be a resolution about whether the bottom is already "in"; and then a matter of how long we bounce around in the range of the bottom before there is a kind of acceptance that BTC prices are going to be moving up rather than down.   And, don't get me wrong, even during 2015, even though the bottom had already been reached there was no giving up from the bearwhales to continue to attempt to get the BTC price to go down and to shake additional weak hands out of their coins.  The bearwhales are not going to give up, and perhaps, at a certain point, when the bottom is already in, some of them figure it out and start accumulating BTC rather than continuing to attempt to play a losing game in betting DOWN.  Also, don't get me wrong, even when the bottom is already "in" there is plenty of dominant opinions that BTC will never go above x price again (and in mid-2015, there were a lot of prognosticators saying that the BTC price would never go above $300 again.. in early 2016, they were saying the price would never go above $500 again... etc.. etc. etc.).

So, if the bottom is "in" (and surely no real certainty about that), then the question is whether the trough will be 3 months or maybe up to a year.  If the bottom is not "in", then the period of time to get back into upwards movement would likely be a lot longer.



Of course, we know that bitcoin can be erratic, especially when there is a battle about price direction, but you seem to be describing a less likely scenario... even though I agree that both mentally and financially we need to be prepared for possible extreme scenarios...  On the other hand, even if we prepare for extreme scenarios, I don't believe it is healthy to dwell on those kinds of negative scenarios and to assign them higher likelihood of happening than they are.. even though we will accept them step by step if they do end up happening.


I continue to assert that one of the most certain things about bitcoin remains its volatility... I don't give a ratt's ass about other cryptos, except that I do understand that they seem to be a necessary evil within the whole crypto space.  Anyhow, even if we cannot know for sure which direction the bitcoin price is going to go, we can be pretty confident that there is going to continue to be a lot of volatility in the medium to long term - perhaps until it gets into the $1million per bitcoin territory?

Regarding bots or whales or skynet, I don't think that any of them know for sure where the price is going ahead of time, and they merely attempt to push the price as much as they are able to push it at any given point of time to see if they can either break support (on the buying side) or resistance (on the selling side), and accordingly there is a certain degree about how far momentum will take the price in any direction that is then in a state of "happenings."

You are predicting that this current crash is NOT over?

What are the chances that there is another uprun in altcoins and BTC before the BIG CRASH comes?  Do you know?  Can you reasonably presume that this time around is the BIG ONE?

I will concede that a lot of peeps already got reckt, but there are a lot of peeps also who are ready, willing and able to ride out the downwave, assuming that there is going to be another upwave at some point.

Personally, I have my doubts that this current correction is going to be a several year long correction that really weeds out the vast majority of 14 year old crypto speculators.

How could that be positive, if it is referring to crypto suicide tendencies?

You would reasonably be accurate to accuse Bob of being a self-absorbed attention whoring pussy, but I don't think that there is any evidence that he is a bcash shill.  

Maybe you are getting him mixed up with someone else?  unless you have some examples of such from him?

Yes.. you are so amazing.

Thanks for sharing. 

little by little wins the day, as some famous WO thread canadian might say.   

We already talk about bcash too much in this thread, including your stupid-ass repetitive bot posts.

The reason that you are having difficulty understanding or responding to complexity is because AI has not come along well enough for your to camouflage your bot-ness.

That must mean that I am feeling better.

I had like a 24 hour stomache flu, and I was not really feeling like doing anything, including reading WO posts.

Has anyone ever caught a short term stomache flu from Calamari? 

I am thinking that it was the calamari, because I had a similar thing with calamari about 15 years ago.. .. at least this time was a bit less extreme, but I just felt down for about 24 hours.  I'm feeling better now.

Gambling versus investing is on a continuum, so of course, the more you learn, the more you can improve your strategies and even move more towards investing and away from gambling.

So even if you have better gambling tools, both your mindset and your approach can still be more inclined towards gambling rather than investing.

Furthermore, your use of the term "speculation" and attempting to lump everyone in the same category tends to show that you might not understand some of the nuances within the various approaches that are possible within bitcoin (long term and short term).

 In the end, the most that matters is that you customize your approach to your own situation, and surely it would be better to make money along the way, but sometimes it takes a bit of learning to make money in both the long term and in the short term (or perhaps sometimes be willing to take some losses in order to make longer term profits).  



My strategy does not generally involve attempting to predict the direction of BTC prices.  So, if the price goes up, I sell and if the price goes down I buy, and I don't generally attempt to predict or to change my strategy (except perhaps just a little bit of tweaking here and there) based on what I believe the price might do.


Yes.. HODL works well too, and dollar cost average accumulating of BTC too, and buying on the dips works, too.

Of course, there can be manipulation on all kinds of levels, and surely BIGGER miners or more long term prepared miners might engage in behaviors in order to attempt to push out the competition, including driving the price down lower and for longer.  In the end, it is only one of the factors, and some miners are going to be able to ride out the dip for longer and for lower than others, but in the end, the hash rate keeps going up with increases in difficulty.  No miners are giving up on bitcoin, but you are correct that some of them might not have positioned themselves as well as others in terms of the amount of capital that they have to float in order to keep their operations going and sometimes maybe having to cash out some bitcoins at times that are ones that they have not chosen.

Regarding bitmain specifically, we certainly do not know their internals, and there have been some folks who have been going through their possible IPO disclosures with a fine tooth comb and even trying to figure out whether or not they are going to be able to fool enough people into giving them money (if an IPO does take place). 

It is not exactly easy to make assessments about who are the miners and what are their financial situations or their ability to ride out this particular down wave; however, if a company such as Bitmain goes public then it seems that more of their assets would become publicly knowable - good strategy or not?  who knows? could play out in a variety of ways with the entrance of new competition too, and perhaps Bitmain may end up playing their cards wrongly which would allow some other entrants, too.



There are probably other ways to make efficiencies besides electricity costs, and also a question of being sufficiently capitalized (and even liquid) to be able to ride out possible short term losses.  Mining remains just one component that affects price and the games that are played (and manipulations as you mentioned) that might be in the wheel house of some of the players who are either BIGGER or who have positioned themselves well for riding out the wave.


If you believe that bitcoin incentives, including POW is broken, then you are likely looking at the wrong factors.  Each of the miners decide for themselves what they want to do, and even whether to go on their own or to join a pool.

Recall a lot of the misinformation that was spewed out there in 2016 regarding the halvening and the suggestions that BTC mining was going to die down.   That did not happen, and there was a bit of a delayed affect, but what happened was the most obvious, BTC prices went up and miners continued to mine on bitcoin.



You now that these are all factors, and there are many factors that push price, and it is not just about mining - even though that remains one of the factors.


I think that we cannot be attempting to place too much emphasis on one thing or another and trying to figure out the matter.  The incentives in bitcoin remain quite well designed to inspire mining and profits from rewards and/or fees, and the fact that the hash rate and difficulty continues to go up, even while the price corrects goes to show that miners are still expending resources to mine bitcoin and they are figuring out their own profits (even if they end up betting wrong and losing in the long run, we still get the benefit of their expending resources to mine bitcoin in the short run).



Each person, including miners, ponders his own market conditions and figures out a strategy that he believes will be profitable that in the case of miners would involve both speculation on BTC price but also figuring out ways to attempt to make his business most efficient and to be able to ride out the down wave.  I really don't think that it is fruitful to attempt to figure out the factors that are being weighed by others in order to recognize certain indicators about what we need to figure out for ourselves.

By the way, miners could go out of business because they took on too much risk and they miscalculated or they could go out of business because they have their own internal problems, such as manpower or business management issues, and those factors are going to vary from miner to miner and from pool to pool, including getting their hands on cycling good and powerful equipment and electricity costs, but they have a lot of ways to play their bets on mining and accumulating BTC and they may end up betting wrong and even some factors outside of their expectations happen with their operations and their ability to float the business through the down wave.



Yeah, but if there is momentum, then it can take a while to reverse the momentum.  Sure, we might continue considering that BTC has visited $6k for the last time, and we are returning up, but as long as the price remains in striking distance of $6k, there are going to be some bear whales who want to attempt to push the price down, and some real people (regular investors) might also wait on the sidelines because they are afraid to get in when they are not certain about whether the "bottom is really in this time". 

There remain some informational aspects whether miners or even the knowledge of whales regarding how many coins they can sell that are out of touch for some of us regular peeps to know, so we just have to do our best to attempt to figure out whether we might need to change our strategy from what we had been doing (considering our own liquidity situation, too). 

Fair enough that there is "speculation" involved, but there is a difference between gambling and investing and you seem to be very inclined towards the gambling side.

You can make a lot of money in bitcoin as long as you develop investment (rather than gambling) strategies that are likely to pay off quite well in the longer run 5 years plus (and maybe even less than that). 

At this point, it is difficult to know if WEX is going to be good for its word to reimburse 100% of all outstanding tokens in less than 2 years.  It has already been one year, and they seem to be gasping just to survive with the ongoing freezing of withdrawals, the crazy ass prices and even the tether being traded at near $4 when its actual market value is around $1... Kind of makes for some loss of confidence, that's for sure.