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Question: Sept. 30 Closing Price:
<$5,000 - 10 (13.2%)
$5000-$5,500 - 2 (2.6%)
$5,500-$6,000 - 4 (5.3%)
$6,000-$6,500 - 8 (10.5%)
$6,500-$7,000 - 12 (15.8%)
$7,000-$7,500 - 9 (11.8%)
$7,500-$8,000 - 4 (5.3%)
$8,000-$8,500 - 5 (6.6%)
>$8,500 - 22 (28.9%)
Total Voters: 76

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 20472060 times)
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JayJuanGee
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August 15, 2018, 05:12:34 AM

$6000 seems to be holding a little too falsely to me. Got to be manipulation holding us arund this range, no?
The price fell all too easily from $8500 to $5800 but recovered to above $6000 (just about) but we’re holding here by literally $5 - $100, why?

My conspiracy driven mind tells me we’re being played by whales who are still accumulating at these prices before we begin the next bull run.

It just seems so artificial clinging onto $6000 for dear life & not showing any sogns of crashing significantly below it or pulling away & going up.

Bigger forces at play here, this is not just ‘the market’.

your implication that we cannot really know what is going on behind the scenes with any kind of certainty is not without precedent.

Of course, if whales could push the BTC price down more without giving up their own coins, then they are likely to attempt such.

Even though the time frames in 2015 were different, but we spent a considerable amount of the whole year of 2015 in the $200s and there were continued attempts to bring the BTC price down, but at a certain point, they ran out of sellers.

Yeah, we keep revisiting $6k, and none of us know for sure if $6k is going to hold - but we have been here quite a bit, and we continue to return to around this price range.  At some point, there are likely to be more buyers than sellers in this price range and at prices much higher than this, but I still think that it could take awhile to break above $10k and to stay there.  Would be nice if we could get into the $10k striking range in the coming months, but seems to me that the odds are not really better than 50/50 in that regard, perhaps even in the 40% arena?  Surely, I like surprises, especially upwards, but we should continue to prepare ourselves mentally and financially in case it takes longer than expected to get back above $10k.


agree. 2 questions however

1) the revisiting 6k ... is this simply 'manipulation' at this point in time, due to the fact a LOT and I mean a LOT of ASIC miners, btc

and others are folding. Some good-sized data halls as well. Thus forced in the situation of 1) paying off loans/debts etc with btc/crypto

to the bank or whatever to cut down on monthly expenses (not to mention people, pulling out rigs) thus, once their house is in order

(painful though it may be) hope to MINE LIKE HELL and HODL BTC (or whatever crypto) and replenish HOARD at the other side. It is

a half-assed way to do this, but if you have big monthly expenses, cashing coin out now to minimize that and mine at the back end,

from folk I know, seems to be what is going on. ie get the bank off my back, by selling crypto, have the bldg etc as a hedge, if all crypto

goes tulips, and then with less

expenses outside electric, etc and mine and HODL to get it back, after this August has passed. An everyone cashing out because, they

got caught with their pants down, kinda situation...don't ya know. Smiley

So my point is, is this a 'short-term' adjustment by miners to a 'new reality' and thus the glut of BTC/crypto sales and getting their house in

order? (hell, I don't know, tossing it out there for better minds than mine to ponder)

Of course, there can be manipulation on all kinds of levels, and surely BIGGER miners or more long term prepared miners might engage in behaviors in order to attempt to push out the competition, including driving the price down lower and for longer.  In the end, it is only one of the factors, and some miners are going to be able to ride out the dip for longer and for lower than others, but in the end, the hash rate keeps going up with increases in difficulty.  No miners are giving up on bitcoin, but you are correct that some of them might not have positioned themselves as well as others in terms of the amount of capital that they have to float in order to keep their operations going and sometimes maybe having to cash out some bitcoins at times that are ones that they have not chosen.

Regarding bitmain specifically, we certainly do not know their internals, and there have been some folks who have been going through their possible IPO disclosures with a fine tooth comb and even trying to figure out whether or not they are going to be able to fool enough people into giving them money (if an IPO does take place). 

It is not exactly easy to make assessments about who are the miners and what are their financial situations or their ability to ride out this particular down wave; however, if a company such as Bitmain goes public then it seems that more of their assets would become publicly knowable - good strategy or not?  who knows? could play out in a variety of ways with the entrance of new competition too, and perhaps Bitmain may end up playing their cards wrongly which would allow some other entrants, too.



2) what exactly do you have to have for electric and such to make any money with BTC or LTC mining at these current prices?

Like what? Something silly like 5c electric for your BTC or other crypto ASIC rigs? Hell if I know if bitmain is making money or losing money

right now. I guess it depends on what the 'big, I mean really, big boys pay for electric". I've no clue.

There are probably other ways to make efficiencies besides electricity costs, and also a question of being sufficiently capitalized (and even liquid) to be able to ride out possible short term losses.  Mining remains just one component that affects price and the games that are played (and manipulations as you mentioned) that might be in the wheel house of some of the players who are either BIGGER or who have positioned themselves well for riding out the wave.

To sum up, is the boat on pow mining of any type, just awash and can be bailed out ..or is the pow mining (BTC specifically) sinking?

If you believe that bitcoin incentives, including POW is broken, then you are likely looking at the wrong factors.  Each of the miners decide for themselves what they want to do, and even whether to go on their own or to join a pool.

Recall a lot of the misinformation that was spewed out there in 2016 regarding the halvening and the suggestions that BTC mining was going to die down.   That did not happen, and there was a bit of a delayed affect, but what happened was the most obvious, BTC prices went up and miners continued to mine on bitcoin.


Or hell, is what I'm saying has nothing to do with the price or any other issue with BTC or crypto at this time?

You now that these are all factors, and there are many factors that push price, and it is not just about mining - even though that remains one of the factors.

Just a further aside, if any combo of the above is true, would that not mean, this too shall pass? (overproduction vs price) and with

85% of all BTC already mined, there simply will have to be a rebound (eventually)? (or am I delusional?)

I think that we cannot be attempting to place too much emphasis on one thing or another and trying to figure out the matter.  The incentives in bitcoin remain quite well designed to inspire mining and profits from rewards and/or fees, and the fact that the hash rate and difficulty continues to go up, even while the price corrects goes to show that miners are still expending resources to mine bitcoin and they are figuring out their own profits (even if they end up betting wrong and losing in the long run, we still get the benefit of their expending resources to mine bitcoin in the short run).


as usual, I think you see what I'm pondering here..but really have no idea of how widespread big miners are and if/or not they are

in trouble like the rest of us ....or simply reaping the rewards as pow miners of any flavor are pulled and now doorstops at the lower

end and higher electric price levels (middle and small fry data halls may be toast as I speak)

Each person, including miners, ponders his own market conditions and figures out a strategy that he believes will be profitable that in the case of miners would involve both speculation on BTC price but also figuring out ways to attempt to make his business most efficient and to be able to ride out the down wave.  I really don't think that it is fruitful to attempt to figure out the factors that are being weighed by others in order to recognize certain indicators about what we need to figure out for ourselves.

By the way, miners could go out of business because they took on too much risk and they miscalculated or they could go out of business because they have their own internal problems, such as manpower or business management issues, and those factors are going to vary from miner to miner and from pool to pool, including getting their hands on cycling good and powerful equipment and electricity costs, but they have a lot of ways to play their bets on mining and accumulating BTC and they may end up betting wrong and even some factors outside of their expectations happen with their operations and their ability to float the business through the down wave.


thanks, as usual, I'm hoping the price is due to the above considerations, short-term and simple low volume and such being August and all.

and again, nothing I've said above has any basis on the current situation this August or price of BTC or crypto and I've missed the mark

entirely. (but then again, delusion may be my middle name, these days, got to have a reason made up or not!) Smiley

anyway, above is where the rabbit trail of my mind is going

brad

Yeah, but if there is momentum, then it can take a while to reverse the momentum.  Sure, we might continue considering that BTC has visited $6k for the last time, and we are returning up, but as long as the price remains in striking distance of $6k, there are going to be some bear whales who want to attempt to push the price down, and some real people (regular investors) might also wait on the sidelines because they are afraid to get in when they are not certain about whether the "bottom is really in this time". 

There remain some informational aspects whether miners or even the knowledge of whales regarding how many coins they can sell that are out of touch for some of us regular peeps to know, so we just have to do our best to attempt to figure out whether we might need to change our strategy from what we had been doing (considering our own liquidity situation, too). 
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August 15, 2018, 05:21:39 AM


Fair enough that there is "speculation" involved, but there is a difference between gambling and investing and you seem to be very inclined towards the gambling side.

You can make a lot of money in bitcoin as long as you develop investment (rather than gambling) strategies that are likely to pay off quite well in the longer run 5 years plus (and maybe even less than that).  

No no, it was gambling at the start. That was a couple of years ago. After that I started learning about the indicators, self taught how to read candle charts and so on. And yeah I lost money like an idiot and that was not fun because it was gambling. But now I enjoy making money because its speculation. I prefer to keep an eye on RSI( Outdated I know- but if used correctly, still a good indicator)

Gambling versus investing is on a continuum, so of course, the more you learn, the more you can improve your strategies and even move more towards investing and away from gambling.

So even if you have better gambling tools, both your mindset and your approach can still be more inclined towards gambling rather than investing.

Furthermore, your use of the term "speculation" and attempting to lump everyone in the same category tends to show that you might not understand some of the nuances within the various approaches that are possible within bitcoin (long term and short term).

 In the end, the most that matters is that you customize your approach to your own situation, and surely it would be better to make money along the way, but sometimes it takes a bit of learning to make money in both the long term and in the short term (or perhaps sometimes be willing to take some losses in order to make longer term profits).  


My favorite tool is stochastics combined with bollinger bands. Basically I wait for the outbreak while securing a stop loss limit. And once the outbreak is in, I keep a close eye on MACD and MFI as to the perfect selling point. Works like a charm most of the time. If you have any strategies to share I would appreciate it!

My strategy does not generally involve attempting to predict the direction of BTC prices.  So, if the price goes up, I sell and if the price goes down I buy, and I don't generally attempt to predict or to change my strategy (except perhaps just a little bit of tweaking here and there) based on what I believe the price might do.


Fair enough that there is "speculation" involved, but there is a difference between gambling and investing and you seem to be very inclined towards the gambling side.

You can make a lot of money in bitcoin as long as you develop investment (rather than gambling) strategies that are likely to pay off quite well in the longer run 5 years plus (and maybe even less than that). 

No no, it was gambling at the start. That was a couple of years ago. After that I started learning about the indicators, self taught how to read candle charts and so on. And yeah I lost money like an idiot and that was not fun because it was gambling. But now I enjoy making money because its speculation. I prefer to keep an eye on RSI( Outdated I know- but if used correctly, still a good indicator)

My favorite tool is stochastics combined with bollinger bands. Basically I wait for the outbreak while securing a stop loss limit. And once the outbreak is in, I keep a close eye on MACD and MFI. Works like a charm most of the time. If you have any strategies to share I would appreciate it!

HODL, next question.

Yes.. HODL works well too, and dollar cost average accumulating of BTC too, and buying on the dips works, too.
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August 15, 2018, 05:29:44 AM

thanks JJ exactly what we needed a wall of text and discussion on topic to hide the truth

That must mean that I am feeling better.

I had like a 24 hour stomache flu, and I was not really feeling like doing anything, including reading WO posts.

Has anyone ever caught a short term stomache flu from Calamari? 

I am thinking that it was the calamari, because I had a similar thing with calamari about 15 years ago.. .. at least this time was a bit less extreme, but I just felt down for about 24 hours.  I'm feeling better now.
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August 15, 2018, 05:30:29 AM

Scott Nations of CNBC teaches us how to short.  

As I write this the price is $6312.

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August 15, 2018, 05:31:31 AM



Come on JJ how is that AI working, too difficult to respond

you been activated

btrash in the can, any advice

We already talk about bcash too much in this thread, including your stupid-ass repetitive bot posts.

The reason that you are having difficulty understanding or responding to complexity is because AI has not come along well enough for your to camouflage your bot-ness.
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August 15, 2018, 05:36:31 AM

Just woke up and WOW what a brutal pump  Roll Eyes  Shocked  Roll Eyes
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August 15, 2018, 05:41:17 AM

The absolute state of this thread.

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August 15, 2018, 05:43:08 AM

Just woke up and WOW what a brutal pump  Roll Eyes  Shocked  Roll Eyes

little by little wins the day, as some famous WO thread canadian might say.   Wink
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August 15, 2018, 05:44:53 AM

The absolute state of this thread.



Yes.. you are so amazing.

Thanks for sharing.  Roll Eyes
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August 15, 2018, 05:47:07 AM

Come on bears. Keep piling on the margin shorts. I'm sure no bulls will notice those growing future buy orders stacking up.  Grin
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August 15, 2018, 05:47:44 AM


Anyone factor in what happens when btrash goes bust?

It's a chance to corner BITCOIN market, i'm sure it won't be hard to find some companies to throw few millions/yr at it to keep it at 1-5% of BTC. Kinda like playing lottery on a corporate scale, chances are practically non existent but payoff is h'UUGE!

Yes but i believe Roger will fall before it happens, how quick he would have to gain more favours is lessening each day



Roger is a PR face that Chinese miners need, plus he also has his own vested interest in it so it's a win/win combo for them. Is 1-5% of BTC a fall? Think BITMAIN can sustain that and continue to cater to outliers, and position themselves as a "hedge" to diversify into for idiots whenever BTC rallies. China has deep pockets maybe they decide to go with 1GB blocks and China will bank roll them, who knows
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August 15, 2018, 06:04:24 AM


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August 15, 2018, 06:26:13 AM

This thread is beginning to really annoy me lately  Undecided



(A dozen or so pages back)

It is bad because anyone with half a brain now knows that Bitmain holds one million Bcash lol that it cannot sell.  This is a massive stock overhang.
https://moneyweek.com/glossary/stock-overhang/
In other news:

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August 15, 2018, 06:29:43 AM

Hmmm talk on Twitter of a monster hidden buy wall on BFX @ $6300.  

I hope y’all are wearing a belt.  Maybe do it up a notch tighter just in case.


Edit:   I can see what looks to be a floor forming @ $6311.  This could be a whale call for an explosive short squeeze. I would target $6700.   

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August 15, 2018, 07:13:09 AM

This thread is beginning to really annoy me lately  Undecided



(A dozen or so pages back)

It is bad because anyone with half a brain now knows that Bitmain holds one million Bcash lol that it cannot sell.  This is a massive stock overhang.
https://moneyweek.com/glossary/stock-overhang/
In other news:

I put HM, mymenace, r0ach, etc. on ignore long ago. I thought that picture is funny. Not as much as your fake bitmex rekt pics of course. But hey, not everyone is wise enough to manipulate the people by posting gloom and doom fake rekt twitter pics, each time bitcoin loses 1%. I know that you are a bcash shill but nothing can stop that shit going down, not even the almighty Wu, not to mention your lame efforts  Grin Cheesy Cheesy
P.S. You definitely deserved putting you back on my ignore list  Wink
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August 15, 2018, 07:32:04 AM

This thread is beginning to really annoy me lately  Undecided



(A dozen or so pages back)

It is bad because anyone with half a brain now knows that Bitmain holds one million Bcash lol that it cannot sell.  This is a massive stock overhang.
https://moneyweek.com/glossary/stock-overhang/
In other news:

I put HM, mymenace, r0ach, etc. on ignore long ago. I thought that picture is funny. Not as much as your fake bitmex rekt pics of course. But hey, not everyone is wise enough to manipulate the people by posting gloom and doom fake rekt twitter pics, each time bitcoin loses 1%. I know that you are a bcash shill but nothing can stop that shit going down, not even the almighty Wu, not to mention your lame efforts  Grin Cheesy Cheesy
P.S. You definitely deserved putting you back on my ignore list  Wink

You would reasonably be accurate to accuse Bob of being a self-absorbed attention whoring pussy, but I don't think that there is any evidence that he is a bcash shill.  

Maybe you are getting him mixed up with someone else?  unless you have some examples of such from him?
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August 15, 2018, 09:03:02 AM

So have bitmain cancelled their September mining conference yet?
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August 15, 2018, 09:21:32 AM

Hmmm talk on Twitter of a monster hidden buy wall on BFX @ $6300.  

I hope y’all are wearing a belt.  Maybe do it up a notch tighter just in case.

He's bought around 5k coins by now and is single-handedly holding up the price.

Hidden walls cost more in fees.

Confident non-stop accumulation by bot-rape.

Bullish af.
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August 15, 2018, 09:28:56 AM

the downtrend is still intact on the daily, I wouldn't call it an reversal before we hit at least above 6550 which would mean a higher high swing

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August 15, 2018, 09:43:55 AM
Merited by drays (1), Last of the V8s (1)

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt7215388/ https://youtu.be/oQGpdgV_ifI
An unsettling and eye-opening Wall Street horror story about Chinese companies, the American stock market, and the opportunistic greed behind the biggest heist you've never heard of.
Lots of parallels to crypto shenanigans

A good doco (well spotted) but you can't help the feeling of deja vu: 

Massive corporate fraud to rip off ordinary people and the ones who make the money don't give a shit and don't even think it's doing anything wrong.

It's just 'normal', nothing changes. Business as usual. No one goes to jail.
Yes depressing stuff, but I think bitcoin will eventually bring about an honest business climate again. Reputation will be everything, and con-men and idiots will have nowhere to go, except prison or the woodchipper.

The system lapped up the ICOs (and why not - free money) but they don't like Bicoin yet.  They will when they can fractionally reserve it.  Look further into ICE / Bakkt, they want to find a way. 

You do good research, V8.  When you get a moment, check this podcast on what ICE 'may' mean - it's worth a listen:

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/why-ice-bakkt-news-makes-some-crypto-investors-nervous/id1347049808?i=1000417570519&mt=2

ICE wont be stopped by the SEC, they own the fucking NYSE (and 22 other exchanges). It might not all be good news they are looking to get into Bitcoin. 

And before you say 'Bitcoin can't be in a fractional reserve situation' think again.  Because it actually could. 

Um... Like I'll be accepting an IOU piece of paper to represent bitcoin. It was done on metals but I'm not so sure the people are that gullible for the same trick.  Its interesting to see how ICE wants a piece of the pie. They sure as hell wont send my money to anything crypto related as I found out a couple weeks ago while trying. Ha Bullish!

It already happens, though - when you short (as I am sure people here do on occasion), as you 'borrow' Bitcoin to sell.   The Exchange credits or debits accordingly - but the numbers are in a database, no coins are in your personal wallet under your private key.   It's not a big step for an institution to 'lend' coins it has custody over, or lend them twice and for these coins to have more than one owner.  Some exchanges have done this before and some probably still do.  Not all the people want all their bitcoins back at once, so there are always some spare in the cold wallet.

Yes, you or I will always want to have our coins under our own key.  It has always been essential for us to do so.

But other investors would probably rather not.  Institutions can just 'credit your account' with Bitcoin they do not actually have, as banks do with fiat all the time - thus increasing the supply of Bitcoin out there (on paper).  ICE and Bakkt will be custodians of people's coins (how nice of them) and the ability of them to 'use' the coins to make money by rehypothecating them will be part of their business model.

You may not be gullible, but if others accept paper custodianship, then Bitcoins can be rehypothecated and (more) Bitcoins will be bought and sold that do not exist.  ICE are big enough to do this in a much bigger way and the market for Bitcoin may well become just like all the other markets.

And there will be far, far more bitcoins being traded out there than actually exist.
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