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1781  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will 2023 be another up year for Bitcoin? on: January 09, 2023, 04:42:48 AM
Depending what happens on this week CPI report it will say a lot about bitcoins future. Basically we are expecting 0% CPI so if it’s deflation then it’s great for stocks and crypto but if it’s positive then it’s time to worry.

Means fed might hike more since the economy is way too strong and with the tight job market they will have no choice. We don’t want that. We want to see deflation and unemployment too tick up so it means rate cuts are in the near future.
1782  Economy / Speculation / Re: Who thinks DCG / Genesis / Grayscale / Barry are bad actors? on: January 09, 2023, 03:26:24 AM
(.....)
I am not so sure what to think. I know that Zhusu can't be fully trusted after what he did however why would he be making this stuff up? Also it doesn't help since he is saying all of this after its too late.
I think what Zhusu is doing right now is exposing all these crypto actors that became big players on the market right now, especially DCG and FTX.
Zhusu connected all the dots here starting from the Luna fall, which for me, Luna case was the trigger point before which Three Arrows Capital also started when Luna popped. Now Zhusu is starting to gain the trust of everyone again after what happened but it's already difficult for me.

What happening right now is best example of not trusting anybody on the cryptocurrency, look how lot of people admire Sam Bankman-fried but look at now.

Even if it wasn't for the Luna collapse do you think it would of been any different? We are in a bear market and most of crypto assets would of went downhill anyways. The Luna collapse maybe expediated everything and it happened sooner.

However even if it wasnt for that first domino falling being Luna, FTX and all these other companies might of been exposed and failed anyways. Maybe if we were in a strong bull market then the Luna collapse might of not made all these exchanges fail but that's not the case here.
1783  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: You Learn More from Losses than from Wins on: January 08, 2023, 04:09:24 AM
Yes this is true. You never remember your big wins only your big losers and this is why you can’t trade with demo or play money. Because it will seem too easy and give you a false sense of security. You need to experience loss to be able to learn from it.

Hence it’s why it’s better trading with a small account than demo. Because the human emotion will be pretty much the same whether you lose $10 or $100. But if you trade with fake money then there is no emotion.
1784  Economy / Speculation / Re: How is everyone doing? on: January 08, 2023, 04:07:15 AM
I think that all these stablecoin issuers are making crazy bank while everything else in the industry is losing money. It you look at USDC financial you can see that most of it is in short dated treasuries. They are almost making 5% a year for doing nothing.

Tether and USDC is over $100B which is $5 B per year in these high interest rate times. Honestly why would they be a scam after all this? All they need to do is pretty much nothing and they are making crazy actual yields with safe government bonds.
1785  Economy / Speculation / Re: Who thinks DCG / Genesis / Grayscale / Barry are bad actors? on: January 08, 2023, 04:04:11 AM
I actually never knew that. All I remember from the Segwit days was that Bitmain CEO who refused to activate Segwit on his pool and it created a lot of drama and ETH almost flipped BTC on the market cap before he finally caved in. Never knew Barry was apart of it.

With Genesis I am pretty sure they will just go and claim bankruptcy. In their point of view they will benefit the most that way. They don’t care about their relationship with Gemini or Gemini Earn customers and won’t want to upset their board members. Only question is when they will claim bankruptcy.
1786  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Why these types wicks there on: January 07, 2023, 04:25:59 AM
These wicks are generally not normal. They are happening now due to a small daily range and poor liquidity. These wicks usually happen during pivots and most commonly at daily highs and lows.

Usually people put their stops at those areas and that’s when price ends up hitting a bunch of stops however since liquidity is lower it spikes up more than usual and then reverts back down.

We had this in the past but it wasn’t this extreme as it is now.
1787  Economy / Economics / Re: "Prepare for defation in 2023" on: January 07, 2023, 04:21:51 AM
Many economists and hedge fund managers are basically thinking we are going to repeat the 1970s. Where in 6 months we will see deflation due to a recession and what will happen is the bonds will rally along with stocks and Bitcoin because the fed will print more money.

Then it’ll be a repeat and lead to more inflation and it might be double digit this time and again fed will need to raise rates. Pretty much what happened back then. No idea if history will repeat itself exactly but most of the time it rhymes.
1788  Economy / Speculation / Re: Each time you see a red candle! on: January 07, 2023, 04:18:39 AM
Bitcoin is one area where many investors were burnt but stock market is another. There are so many people who lost their savings due to stock market losses. The biggest lately is Tesla stock.

Even one guy says he lost $10M of his families retirement due to overinvesting in Tesla and it’s not the only company. Meta, Netflix, Nvidia, Etc where all stocks that were popular and ongoing huge corrections.
1789  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: Does GPU used on mining is still good? on: January 06, 2023, 05:18:18 AM
You really are better buying a GPU from a miner than a gamer. Most miners keep GPUs outside the case and they are well ventilated and usually undervolted and underclocked. Gamers are the complete opposite, they want max FPS and they usually overvolt and overclock and it’s inside a computer case with poor ventilation. Those are the suffering GPUs.

The only issue is perhaps the fan might go bad sooner however it’s an easy fix. You can even fix it yourself by lubricating the bearings or buy a replacement fan from eBay and should be good to go.
1790  Economy / Economics / Re: If your passive income beats inflation rate, deposit might be a better choice. on: January 06, 2023, 05:14:50 AM
I don’t know how it is in all countries but here in North America most banks pay like 1% interest in a savings account. If you want more you need to move those funds to a specialized investment fund and the money might be locked until maturity. You can get 5% that way.

Sure you will keep at pace with inflation but keep in mind that inflation most likely peaked and might even deflate if we hit a recession. And then your 5% will become 0% when they cut rates again. Hence why you are better off buying assets like stocks which can go 50% instead of 5%.
1791  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Miner Marathon Digital Pays Off Silvergate Revolving Credit? on: January 06, 2023, 05:07:23 AM
Yes I have been following this bank. And I am thinking buying the stock would be a good buying opportunity for the next bull run. Stock is like $11-12 right now. It peaked at $240 or so. So basically 95% from ATH.

I think the balance sheet is ok for the bank. They survived the bank run. And it’s one of the most important banks for anything crypto related. If it goes bankrupt then so be it however I just think it’s constant fud which is causing the bank to hit new weekly lows.
1792  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Louisiana Begins Requiring Government ID to Access Online Porn on: January 05, 2023, 05:17:37 AM
Pretty sure what those porn sites will do is just prevent access from those states. A site like Pornhub makes most of its revenue from the ads that it has displayed. Not everybody paying for a premium membership. It will be too much work and too much privacy focused that they will just block IP addresses from that state.

I think there are many other ways to go about this. One way is just by using your credit card and paying $0.01 to prove you are an adult since kids can't hold credit cards. If a kid can borrows dads credit card, they can also borrow their drivers license and doesn't really accomplish anything.
1793  Economy / Speculation / Who thinks DCG / Genesis / Grayscale / Barry are bad actors? on: January 05, 2023, 05:12:05 AM
I used to respect Barry alot. I think he did lots for crypto. Especially getting the GBTC up and running so there was some retail that could hold Bitcoin in their retirement accounts. However after reading these tweets from,

https://twitter.com/zhusu

I am not so sure what to think. I know that Zhusu can't be fully trusted after what he did however why would he be making this stuff up? Also it doesn't help since he is saying all of this after its too late.

Wondering what everything here thinks of the FTX and Genesis situation?
1794  Economy / Speculation / Re: [Speculated] Barry Silbert dump on: January 04, 2023, 04:49:37 AM
Honestly both Barry and the Winklevoss twins can make the customers whole. Both of them have enough funds to cover the hole but they refuse and want the other to pay up. The Winklevoss had at one point like 1% of total supply of Bitcoin. They can easily cover the hole and save their brand.

However this is only going to get dragged on for years like MtGox and only the lawyers will be the winners making any money here and the Gemini Earn customers will be the sole losers.
1795  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin developer @lukedashjr's wallet was hacked on: January 03, 2023, 04:02:49 AM
-snip-

Thanks for bringing this information, it is actually a good theory but for now I am personally interested in the fact some sources are mentioning cold wallets/addresses were involved in this theft.
Has he given any other statement about any of that? Because I am not even know how that is possible without him accidentally compromising his keys.

At first, I thought this was a Twitter hack, but now it does not seem like it...

OG people call hot wallets a wallet that is active on a server where the public have access to it..(exchanges and service providers)
a cold wallet is one thats independent and less accessible(such as home PC that may/may not go online..)

EG
your home full node is deemed a cold wallet
compared to CEX deposit&withdrawal nodes/bitnodes.com/bitDNSseed nodes which are hot

offline wallets are deemed 'airgapped' / hardware wallets

Never knew that. I assumed cold always mean hardware wallet and air gapped electrum setup. Didn’t expect it to mean it’s a hot wallet on its own node which you are hosting.

Because that’s obviously not safe since there could always be some exploit, even on an secure Linux system and the thief will have access to your wallet.dat file essentially.

He said that he never trusted hardware wallets or perhaps even wallets such as electrum you can run on cold storage. And I guess he figured he is better off using his online wallet for Bitcoin storage rather than a wallet created by a third party which is open source.

1796  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What would you do if you get a time machine now? on: January 03, 2023, 03:55:17 AM
I’ll bite for this silly question.

If I had a time machine I wouldn’t deal with Bitcoin. It would be a headache especially in 2013 if you started selling large quantities. Banks would get suspicious where you got all these funds, they would think Silk Road.

The real money would be to buy lots and lots of stock options near the highs and bottoms. Basically a small $10k put option could 1000x if bought at the right time and doing the reverse at the other side. Stocks have much more liquidity and it’s possible to make billions easily. With Bitcoin not so easy.
1797  Bitcoin / Wallet software / Re: Old phone as cold storage? on: January 02, 2023, 06:41:30 PM
I don't think a mobile phone will ever be considered good cold storage, ever. The issue is that unlike an old laptop which you can take apart and remove the BlueTooth/Wifi chips, you cannot do this to a mobile phone.

You can open the phone up and remove the antenna, however it can still form a weak connection. You cannot desolder the Baseband chip (for Iphones) to prevent 100% connection loss because the phone won't boot up.

I guess this is much better than a hot wallet but still not as secure as true cold storage such as Electrum on an air-gapped PC.
1798  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin developer @lukedashjr's wallet was hacked on: January 02, 2023, 06:15:47 PM
Can someone that knows him tell him to post something on his Mastodon or Bitcointalk account. People are asking him to post on another social medium to prove its him but he refuses. Normally he posts first to Mastodon and then Twitter, however now he doesn't post anything on Mastodon.

When a Bitcoin OG posts something such as
Quote
"How do I download it and know it's not infected?"
its very strange because we all know you are suppose to verify the checksum after the download to confirm its legit.

This is like Satoshi making a post and saying something like "How can I mine Bitcoins on my Cell phone".

1799  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin developer @lukedashjr's wallet was hacked on: January 02, 2023, 04:25:50 PM



What would be the safest and most secure setup for a cold wallet? I am now unsure how to transfer from cold wallet to an online address without compromising security.
Would it be possible to transfer BTC from cold wallet to another cold wallet and then send from that secondary cold wallet to an online address? That way my original cold wallet isn't connecting to the internet or being directly exposed?


Years ago I used to use a USB stick between offline and online computer. Then I read somewhere that its not perfectly safe because if the online computer has some worm, it can jump onto the USB key, and then when you connect the USB key to the offline computer it can infect that computer and steal coins. This was far fetched but it made me worry. So I searched for a full proof method.

Basically my old laptop had a crappy camera. However this camera sucked and couldn't read large QR codes. It also had a SD card reader. So what I did was use an old camera from 1995. And I would take photos of the QR code on ONLINE computer, put that SD card into the OFFLINE computer and read it and sign it. That SD card NEVER was connected to the online computer.

Once I signed the transaction, you can take your iPhone, go to Camera and point at QR code and it will display the signed raw transaction that you can later just go to an online block explorer and push it.

This way there is an "AIR GAP". This is probably even safer than hardware wallets however its a ton of work.
1800  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin developer @lukedashjr's wallet was hacked on: January 02, 2023, 05:52:52 AM
He is not giving us much detail but what if this wasn’t a hack but instead someone physically broke into his house. He is claiming that they got his Bitcoin on cold storage, how else can that be stolen?

he said his server was hacked. thus he had a hot wallet and pgp key store on his server that was hacked

Yes this seems like the most possible explaination but he is saying the server didn’t store any bitcoins or have access to those bitcoins.

Reading his posts he claims that he has bars on his office windows, and has a large heavy door that he locks with the key. And he also keeps everything separate on his activity between different computers.

And reading more into this, it seems it might actually be real and freaking out how this can happen to someone with security so tight and somehow got his bitcoins stolen.
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