The mother of my sister's boyfriend once met a priest in Slovakia who had a friend who once heard her father say "Cena sa nikdy klesnúť" which supposedly means that we're going to reach $2000 next week.

And I'm not saying this lightly. I always trust the father of the friend of the mother of my sister's boyfriend, and so should you.

Good choice.

Whatever happens next won't hurt the holders more than it will hurt bears that get their timing even slightly wrong.

I'm usually not timid and don't like sitting out entire swings, but right now I'm pretty sure that what we're about to see will either be a continuation of the rally or what the kids like to call a bear trap.

Which is bullshit of course. A bear trap is just a profit opportunity for those who time it right. The name is solely there to account for the fact that timing is trickier. A lot trickier.

The only real bear case I see is a slow trickle down. Erosion of buying support, etc. And that takes time to develop, and you'd be able to pick it up early enough.

Quote me on this, if you want.

Much appreciated, OP.

Never tried NinjaTrader, but will give it a shot. Also, what are the advantages of signing up for BitConnector for someone who doesn't use fully automated trading? Care for a sales pitch, I'm actually interested

Two short remarks about the DEMA results:

One, the resulting trades in the 2013/2014 bear market are extremely "unintuitive". Example: You would have had to sit out (all fiat potentially) the entire dead cat bounce to ~1000. It's certainly possibly if you really, really trust your momentum signal, but, boy, I would have been nervous during that period.

Two, I don't agree that the DEMA beats the other options straight and obvious. The optimal parameters you gave for the DEMA are, imo, almost certainly overfitted. The initial post-ATH SELL signal lands *perfectly* on the first rebound. I can't say exactly how much your profit comes from that instance, but it's probably a good chunk. This is almost certainly a lucky hit, and won't be reproducible.

What I'm trying to say is: DEMA might still be the preferably choice for average crossover strategies, but at least the DEMA parameters you mention look like they owe a good deal of their profit to one lucky trade after the bubble popped.

DEMA chart:

Another example of my RI backtesting. This time on the early March (failed) breakout:



RI reversal signal came a solid 3 days before daily MACD turned red, and at around $40 higher price.


For comparison, 6h MACD turned red around the same time as RI signaled 'reversal' (slightly earlier in fact), but it gives a lot more signals altogether, including many bad ones, so can't really be compared:




EDIT: the current situation is actually quite interesting. Almost all momentum signals of comparable time scale are either red, or are about to (1d MACD will probably go down in the next day or two). My RI signal is still saying "doesn't look good, but no reversal case yet". Will be really interesting to see if it is just lagging even more than the momentum signals at the moment, or whether it is onto something.

I never properly defined what I'd consider a "success", but since I'm thinking in terms of profitable trading signals, I'd want to see at least a 5%, and preferably a 10% change in price from here to say that we substantially deviated from the main trend. In other words: staying above 618, or 585, in case RI doesn't signal reversal would be a success in my view. If price hits 585 before RI signals reversal, I'd consider it a clear failure.

I know you're not literally pushing for it to  happen. I just can't see how people expect a sustained reversal of the crushing bear market we just left behind, a bubble, a correction, another sustained reversal / consolidation period,and then another bubble on top, all in less than a year's time, especially when volatility is overall slightly decreasing over time (slightly. Use long term bbw as a measure for example)

y'all seem to be quoting straight from the various time series linear regression extrapolations that make the rounds in here... to quote the great chodpaba:

Nothing "caused" the drop other than individual market participants' choices (some of which admittedly have larger wallets than others). Could be the attempt by a larger player to move the market in his preferred direction (triggering panic selling), but more likely, it's just someone taking a profit and limiting his risk, by betting on further consolidation or price decline.

We're now either in a consolidation phase after an impressive rise and before another leg up, or the mid-May rally ran out of steam and the market is in a state now that could be summarized as: "reluctant to accept that the only way is down". Depends on who you ask which answer you get.

Possibly (hidden) bullish div setting up:



In any case, interesting times ahead.

Huh. That's a nice surprise...

I spent a bit of time backtesting the formula (still not all the way automatized, but I'm getting reasonably fast at it), and I took for example a look at the April 11 rally and the period that followed.

It's an example of a scenario that I was hoping my RI would be able to pick up: there's a strong trend, an initial retracement, followed by a longer period of indecision. In situations like that, I'd like to get a leading signal from my RI whether reversal is expected or not.

Here's the period I'm talking about:



Marked in green is the beginning of what I define to be the main trend, orange is the crash I'd like to predict.

Turns out, at the time of the last green candle *before* the crash, RI was 55, i.e. "undecided, leaning towards reversal" by my interpretation guidelines as specified so far. So the RI was leaning in the right direction (reversal signal more likely than no reversal signal), but the value was pretty close to 50. Perhaps the way to make use of it is considering even small deviations from that baseline as a relevant signal. Further testing needed obviously to determine if an "aggressive" interpretation like that gives too many false signals or not.

Anyway, the above "aggressive" interpretation applied to the current situation and values would mean that the values we're seeing now (high 30s, low 40s) are actually a comparably strong indication that there is no reversal signal coming in from the RI. (The updated values can be found 2 posts above)

Let's see.

If he timed it right, he might have even bought back at a small profit.

If I'm right about his volume, slippage turned that small profit into a net zero at least :P

I understood that much, that's the reason I keep hearing. I'm wondering, why 1 year? I haven't been around long enough to know what the usual time is for an ETP (ETC in our case, I guess) to be approved and listed? What about the unusual ones, which I recon a Bitcoin based one could be.

I have to rely on information like this, and I don't like it.

Sure. I doubt 3600 coins are thrown onto the exchanges each day.

Alright, as a minimum, let's say: 50% of hashrate is "centralized", and they sell only about half: I doubt 900 new coins arrive daily at the exchanges.

I'm not the only one to believe this rally is mainly driven by lack of selling pressure, not by overwhelming buying pressure. Which is not necessarily bad. Whatever drives the price will eventually create sufficient buying pressure.

The currently least dodgy source that scales to the demands of our wealthy imaginary coinnoisseur, by all stretches of my imagination, is a sufficiently large mining operation.

It's the wealthy, imaginary non-coinnoisseur who nonetheless follows the advice of his financial advisors that will have to wait for more reputable venues to emerge that don't rely on direct contact with miners. I don't know where the 'about 1 year' figure comes from that I keep hearing. Is there any substance to it?

Agreed on the 'get out of my backyard' sentiment. But nuclear war? Isn't it just a cynical power game? Putin never has been as popular at home as he is now, I understood. The EU is pressured to "stand up for the small, independent country" or they'll look even weaker than they usually appear. And the US is, well, just the US unwrapping their huge national dick on everything.

It worries me that reverse image search returns zero hits.

Thanks for the clarification. I thought that much, but a lot of quite competent EW analysts seemed to say that the move didn't look impulsive. so I was doubtful.


Sorry to hear about the trouble Ukraine situation causes to you. It's bad enough to know it affects someone, it's weirder to know it affects people you talk to. I made an attempt to follow it closely earlier this year, mainly over on reddit - r/europe. Someone made this over there, which had me laugh about the whole absurdity a bit at least... (I still don't know what a "protoukr" is, though)

I agree, and I disagree.

Practically, what matters for us, is the market price. The 'big players' haven't touched Bitcoin yet in any way that affects that market price.

I do consider it possible (though not necessary likely) that off exchange, accumulation of those entities has progressed much further. But since I know of no way of saying that this is happening with certainty, and more importantly: since the public market as a whole has no way of determining it, it won't affect price, and (by my first point), doesn't matter to us.

I'm not well versed enough in EW, so I'll have to ask, continuation of the recent upwards move, or a larger corrective trend?

Sure. They could.

That would be the precise moment I open up an exchange that still does sell fractional coins. Wanna guess how it would go from there?


Please don't confuse the cartel-like market structure of gold (for historic reasons) and/or market inefficiencies (for the f*cking reason that gold is way more old school) with the emergent phenomena from a maximally free market.

The current Bitcoin market ecosystem has a lot of obnoxious properties (comparably high fees, lack of transparency, huge counterparty risk), but restrictions on traded quantities for the sake of restriction alone is - luckily - not one of them

I like the idea of a thread dedicated to market psychology. I'm working on a, still very crude, semi formal system to classify what I would call 'market narratives' to at least get some approximate idea of how my interpretation of market sentiment "performs" over time.

Looking away from the action of the last few days, I think the main driver of the market currently is "unwillingness to sell at current prices", low selling pressure, same thing I guess.

There was enough fiat sitting on the sidelines to turn the above into a +45% rally, but the biggest question to me right now is: will selling pressure return before buying pressure (mainly through new fiat, I believe) does, or will whatever fiat is /still/ sitting on the sidelines be convinced by the lack of selling pressure that it might as well enter the market now.